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Positioning in SPY: Navigating Volatility in August & SeptemberDisclaimer: The following article is based on a combination of data obtained from TradingView's seasonality indicator and Python code that analyzes seasonality on a 52-week basis over a 10-20 year period. The Kelly method discussed is simply a risk management tactic and should not be interpreted as financial advice. All data and analysis presented are made in good faith and are intended to advocate for data-driven position sizing rather than encouraging or discouraging any specific bullish or bearish positions. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. As we approach the late summer months, it's critical to consider the historical patterns of SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) and position oneself strategically to minimize potential losses while also capturing upside opportunities. August and September have often been challenging months for the market, characterized by heightened volatility and occasional sharp declines. However, completely staying out of the market can result in missed opportunities, especially if the market defies historical trends and rallies. Here’s how to balance these risks with a prudent strategy. Historical Performance and Seasonality Historically, SPY tends to experience increased volatility during the late summer, with some of the most significant drops often occurring in these months. From the data, Week 33, for instance, shows a mean return of -0.59% with only 42.86% positive returns. Week 39, even worse, shows an average return of -0.88%, with just 14.29% of the weeks ending in positive territory over the past decade. The seasonality chart provided further reinforces this pattern, showing consistent negative returns during late August and September in previous years. This suggests a cautious approach is warranted. Technical Indicators: Avoiding Overbought Conditions When entering a position in SPY during this volatile period, it is essential to avoid buying when the market is overbought, as indicated by the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands (BB). RSI Considerations: The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 typically signals that an asset is overbought, and a pullback may be imminent. Before entering a position, ensure that the RSI is below 70, preferably closer to 50 or lower, indicating neutral to slightly oversold conditions. 20-Day Bollinger Bands (BB): Bollinger Bands plot standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the price touches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, it may indicate that the asset is overbought. Waiting for the price to either move back within the bands or approach the lower band provides a better entry point. 52-Week Bollinger Bands: This is a broader timeframe that can help avoid long-term overbought conditions. Ensure SPY is not trading above the upper 52-week Bollinger Band to avoid entering at potentially unsustainable price levels. Kelly Method and Raw Data to Consider: Betting Calendar Using Kelly Method Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing: Determine Kelly Fraction: b = net odds received on the wager p = probability of winning (positive return) q = probability of losing (negative return) For each week, calculate the Kelly ratio based on historical data. Adjust the bet size each week according to the Kelly ratio, focusing on the following: High Kelly Ratio (>0.2): Increase exposure to TQQQ. Moderate Kelly Ratio (0 to 0.2): Hold current positions or add conservatively. Ticker: SPY, Week: 1 Volatility: 0.0257 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.57% Standard Deviation: 2.57% Highest Return: 3.46% in 2012 Lowest Return: -5.99% in 2016 Mean Volume: 111390641.79 Highest Volume: 181713040.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 68430450.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 2 Volatility: 0.0143 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.46% Standard Deviation: 1.43% Highest Return: 2.66% in 2023 Lowest Return: -2.09% in 2016 Mean Volume: 107009064.29 Highest Volume: 229416540.00 in 2016 Lowest Volume: 53189780.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 3 Volatility: 0.0244 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.44% Highest Return: 2.87% in 2019 Lowest Return: -5.88% in 2022 Mean Volume: 128605387.86 Highest Volume: 261616225.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53442500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 4 Volatility: 0.0179 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.79% Highest Return: 2.46% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.35% in 2021 Mean Volume: 129307826.43 Highest Volume: 259350300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 66549675.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 5 Volatility: 0.0245 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 2.45% Highest Return: 4.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -3.93% in 2018 Mean Volume: 129932678.57 Highest Volume: 285445020.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 57701560.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 6 Volatility: 0.0207 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.29% Standard Deviation: 2.07% Highest Return: 3.23% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 132183114.29 Highest Volume: 269419900.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 45315460.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 7 Volatility: 0.0156 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.48% Standard Deviation: 1.56% Highest Return: 4.37% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.39% in 2022 Mean Volume: 103561883.93 Highest Volume: 186139025.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 52002260.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 8 Volatility: 0.0131 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.31% Highest Return: 1.62% in 2016 Lowest Return: -2.68% in 2023 Mean Volume: 118643622.50 Highest Volume: 215704675.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 69515225.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 9 Volatility: 0.0356 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.24% Standard Deviation: 3.56% Highest Return: 3.14% in 2010 Lowest Return: -11.63% in 2020 Mean Volume: 133841187.14 Highest Volume: 248820940.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 66189040.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 10 Volatility: 0.0225 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.01% Standard Deviation: 2.25% Highest Return: 3.60% in 2018 Lowest Return: -4.59% in 2023 Mean Volume: 127773401.43 Highest Volume: 226098020.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74267920.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 11 Volatility: 0.0327 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 3.27% Highest Return: 6.03% in 2022 Lowest Return: -8.53% in 2020 Mean Volume: 144256381.43 Highest Volume: 312592900.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 74846600.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 12 Volatility: 0.0456 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.84% Standard Deviation: 4.56% Highest Return: 2.75% in 2011 Lowest Return: -14.70% in 2020 Mean Volume: 132598345.71 Highest Volume: 304677680.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 76852900.00 in 2022 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 13 Volatility: 0.0295 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.62% Standard Deviation: 2.95% Highest Return: 10.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.23% in 2015 Mean Volume: 119388588.93 Highest Volume: 268584800.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 72870220.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 14 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.03% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 2.69% in 2021 Lowest Return: -1.88% in 2020 Mean Volume: 108302020.36 Highest Volume: 173805360.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 58710140.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 15 Volatility: 0.0349 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.97% Standard Deviation: 3.49% Highest Return: 11.70% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.62% in 2014 Mean Volume: 112186273.93 Highest Volume: 183315525.00 in 2020 Lowest Volume: 59426200.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 16 Volatility: 0.0162 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 1.62% Highest Return: 3.10% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.66% in 2022 Mean Volume: 110959992.14 Highest Volume: 181774480.00 in 2013 Lowest Volume: 57181675.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 17 Volatility: 0.0167 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.20% Standard Deviation: 1.67% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2011 Lowest Return: -3.20% in 2022 Mean Volume: 105344894.29 Highest Volume: 252752120.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 50297380.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 18 Volatility: 0.0204 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.52% Standard Deviation: 2.04% Highest Return: 1.97% in 2013 Lowest Return: -6.46% in 2010 Mean Volume: 129276537.14 Highest Volume: 431397980.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 64171980.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 19 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.38% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.27% in 2022 Mean Volume: 115531918.57 Highest Volume: 305934080.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54062740.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 20 Volatility: 0.0196 Positive Returns: 35.71% Kelly Ratio: -0.1429 Mean Return: -0.80% Standard Deviation: 1.96% Highest Return: 2.15% in 2013 Lowest Return: -4.40% in 2012 Mean Volume: 131334362.86 Highest Volume: 422473400.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 63334740.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29% Kelly Fraction: -0.8000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 21 Volatility: 0.0192 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.92% Highest Return: 6.44% in 2022 Lowest Return: -1.06% in 2019 Mean Volume: 108077414.29 Highest Volume: 322970300.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53396320.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 22 Volatility: 0.0183 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.36% Standard Deviation: 1.83% Highest Return: 2.98% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.98% in 2012 Mean Volume: 118720716.07 Highest Volume: 285811750.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54347825.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 23 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.88% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 4.86% in 2020 Lowest Return: -5.10% in 2022 Mean Volume: 113514415.71 Highest Volume: 284485100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 48743300.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 24 Volatility: 0.0234 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.56% Standard Deviation: 2.34% Highest Return: 2.58% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.77% in 2022 Mean Volume: 124912205.71 Highest Volume: 242089180.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53561320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 25 Volatility: 0.0248 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.42% Standard Deviation: 2.48% Highest Return: 6.50% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.49% in 2010 Mean Volume: 123611130.36 Highest Volume: 242877220.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 56641500.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 26 Volatility: 0.0273 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: 0.19% Standard Deviation: 2.73% Highest Return: 5.49% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.34% in 2010 Mean Volume: 119984470.00 Highest Volume: 288655960.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 53019340.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 27 Volatility: 0.0184 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 1.23% Standard Deviation: 1.84% Highest Return: 5.54% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.18% in 2015 Mean Volume: 101717657.14 Highest Volume: 216636675.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 54238625.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 28 Volatility: 0.0147 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.47% Standard Deviation: 1.47% Highest Return: 2.73% in 2013 Lowest Return: -2.01% in 2011 Mean Volume: 101748738.57 Highest Volume: 212156300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47308740.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 29 Volatility: 0.0121 Positive Returns: 92.86% Kelly Ratio: 0.4286 Mean Return: 1.20% Standard Deviation: 1.21% Highest Return: 3.50% in 2010 Lowest Return: -1.16% in 2019 Mean Volume: 96302982.86 Highest Volume: 241240100.00 in 2010 Lowest Volume: 43331520.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 13.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 92.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 7.14% Kelly Fraction: 0.9231 Ticker: SPY, Week: 30 Volatility: 0.0186 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: 0.17% Standard Deviation: 1.86% Highest Return: 4.25% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2011 Mean Volume: 94711455.71 Highest Volume: 206386080.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47178800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 31 Volatility: 0.0254 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: -0.43% Standard Deviation: 2.54% Highest Return: 1.93% in 2010 Lowest Return: -7.27% in 2011 Mean Volume: 115657112.86 Highest Volume: 443923300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49893820.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 32 Volatility: 0.0170 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 1.70% Highest Return: 3.28% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.65% in 2010 Mean Volume: 121728574.29 Highest Volume: 576882260.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41395180.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 33 Volatility: 0.0157 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.59% Standard Deviation: 1.57% Highest Return: 1.28% in 2014 Lowest Return: -4.62% in 2011 Mean Volume: 108393427.14 Highest Volume: 346468900.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 51346820.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 34 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.06% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 4.71% in 2011 Lowest Return: -5.62% in 2015 Mean Volume: 107049027.14 Highest Volume: 295991640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47916700.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 35 Volatility: 0.0189 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.86% Standard Deviation: 1.89% Highest Return: 3.77% in 2010 Lowest Return: -3.26% in 2022 Mean Volume: 112448182.86 Highest Volume: 330178540.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 48893060.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 36 Volatility: 0.0202 Positive Returns: 42.86% Kelly Ratio: -0.0714 Mean Return: -0.28% Standard Deviation: 2.02% Highest Return: 3.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -3.34% in 2015 Mean Volume: 109450437.14 Highest Volume: 281424250.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 62207775.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14% Kelly Fraction: -0.3333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 37 Volatility: 0.0237 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.59% Standard Deviation: 2.37% Highest Return: 5.27% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.79% in 2022 Mean Volume: 116355140.71 Highest Volume: 301800640.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53333260.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 38 Volatility: 0.0249 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: 0.0000 Mean Return: -0.60% Standard Deviation: 2.49% Highest Return: 2.09% in 2010 Lowest Return: -6.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 121164171.43 Highest Volume: 319570860.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50468560.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 39 Volatility: 0.0093 Positive Returns: 14.29% Kelly Ratio: -0.3571 Mean Return: -0.88% Standard Deviation: 0.93% Highest Return: 0.72% in 2017 Lowest Return: -2.91% in 2022 Mean Volume: 118843855.71 Highest Volume: 289125120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 61372040.00 in 2018 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.17 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 14.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 85.71% Kelly Fraction: -5.0000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 40 Volatility: 0.0106 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.71% Standard Deviation: 1.06% Highest Return: 2.34% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.00% in 2018 Mean Volume: 124806368.57 Highest Volume: 335776200.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 65191120.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 41 Volatility: 0.0272 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.45% Standard Deviation: 2.72% Highest Return: 5.83% in 2011 Lowest Return: -4.13% in 2018 Mean Volume: 119517347.14 Highest Volume: 229047120.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 45680060.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 42 Volatility: 0.0159 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 0.74% Standard Deviation: 1.59% Highest Return: 4.63% in 2022 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2023 Mean Volume: 121403802.86 Highest Volume: 262503400.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 49223620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 43 Volatility: 0.0239 Positive Returns: 64.29% Kelly Ratio: 0.1429 Mean Return: 0.63% Standard Deviation: 2.39% Highest Return: 4.17% in 2014 Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2018 Mean Volume: 114093008.57 Highest Volume: 275998580.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 40530800.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71% Kelly Fraction: 0.4444 Ticker: SPY, Week: 44 Volatility: 0.0296 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 0.40% Standard Deviation: 2.96% Highest Return: 5.72% in 2023 Lowest Return: -5.64% in 2020 Mean Volume: 115418818.10 Highest Volume: 286001300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 53817900.00 in 2021 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 45 Volatility: 0.0265 Positive Returns: 71.43% Kelly Ratio: 0.2143 Mean Return: 1.41% Standard Deviation: 2.65% Highest Return: 7.05% in 2020 Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2012 Mean Volume: 110731115.71 Highest Volume: 236163280.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 50666320.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57% Kelly Fraction: 0.6000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 46 Volatility: 0.0188 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: -0.13% Standard Deviation: 1.88% Highest Return: 2.30% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.73% in 2011 Mean Volume: 105487707.14 Highest Volume: 225310040.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 49888620.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 47 Volatility: 0.0241 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.04% Standard Deviation: 2.41% Highest Return: 3.62% in 2012 Lowest Return: -4.69% in 2011 Mean Volume: 89905267.86 Highest Volume: 192498150.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 47535550.00 in 2017 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 48 Volatility: 0.0226 Positive Returns: 85.71% Kelly Ratio: 0.3571 Mean Return: 1.52% Standard Deviation: 2.26% Highest Return: 7.19% in 2011 Lowest Return: -1.17% in 2021 Mean Volume: 101511530.00 Highest Volume: 226486300.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 41813375.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29% Kelly Fraction: 0.8333 Ticker: SPY, Week: 49 Volatility: 0.0213 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.32% Standard Deviation: 2.13% Highest Return: 3.78% in 2021 Lowest Return: -4.39% in 2018 Mean Volume: 106373016.43 Highest Volume: 218376540.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 57685100.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 50 Volatility: 0.0178 Positive Returns: 28.57% Kelly Ratio: -0.2143 Mean Return: -0.98% Standard Deviation: 1.78% Highest Return: 2.38% in 2023 Lowest Return: -3.74% in 2015 Mean Volume: 120513714.29 Highest Volume: 223839060.00 in 2011 Lowest Volume: 56187100.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.40 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 28.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 71.43% Kelly Fraction: -1.5000 Ticker: SPY, Week: 51 Volatility: 0.0263 Positive Returns: 78.57% Kelly Ratio: 0.2857 Mean Return: 0.80% Standard Deviation: 2.63% Highest Return: 3.93% in 2011 Lowest Return: -7.25% in 2018 Mean Volume: 125472662.14 Highest Volume: 241227640.00 in 2014 Lowest Volume: 68201160.00 in 2016 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43% Kelly Fraction: 0.7273 Ticker: SPY, Week: 52 Volatility: 0.0135 Positive Returns: 57.14% Kelly Ratio: 0.0714 Mean Return: 0.44% Standard Deviation: 1.35% Highest Return: 3.05% in 2018 Lowest Return: -1.94% in 2012 Mean Volume: 81552437.14 Highest Volume: 176291125.00 in 2018 Lowest Volume: 36675000.00 in 2019 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86% Kelly Fraction: 0.2500 Ticker: SPY, Week: 53 Volatility: 0.0155 Positive Returns: 50.00% Kelly Ratio: nan Mean Return: 0.22% Standard Deviation: 1.55% Highest Return: 1.32% in 2020 Lowest Return: -0.87% in 2015 Mean Volume: 69674137.50 Highest Volume: 84184050.00 in 2015 Lowest Volume: 55164225.00 in 2020 Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00 Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00% Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00% Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
AMEX:SPY
by livingdracula
SPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 554.26 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 537.92 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY Lovers ! Bullish and Strong but wait... there is a challengeThere's really not much to analyze here. As we can see on the chart, SPY remains strong and in an upward direction. What I'm expecting: I'm waiting for the price to reach my 565.16 zone as a rejection or liquidity point so that it can regain strength and eventually break through the zone later on. Other than that, there's not much to analyze—SPY remains strong. The challenge this week will be reaching new highs, as we have very important economic news coming up, which could bring a lot of volatility. We'll see what happens this week. Thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Weekly Trade Ideas ReviewI'll start doing these videos at the end of each week to go over the 5 ideas I had posted posted for the previous week to see how things ended up playing out. I like the idea of posting the ideas beforehand to drill the point home that I am not making this stuff up after the fact. I think if you follow along with this series, you'll see that not only does TA work, but it works extremely well and some patterns can you give up to a 70% win rate. You'll see that by planning your trades before each week will make things much easier on you. You won't have to be emotional, because you have a fully structured plan and you know exactly what to do in every scenario. You know when to enter, when to stop out, and when to take profit. You don't have to decide on the fly while your adrenaline and emotions are running high, you just have to do what your trade plan says to do no matter what. You can't deviate, follow the plan. Risk should be taken care of before you take the trade, you know how much you're going to lose if wrong before you make the trade. What is there to worry about then? Sounds easy, but it is not. Some people say psychology isn't important, I say it is the #1 or #2 most important aspect of trading. You need to take emotions out of the game, a winning strategy will not help you if you can't execute it.
AMEX:SPY
by AdvancedPlays
SPY: ReevaluatedEarlier in the week, it appeared that we were preparing for a Wave 3 down. After this sharp V shape recovery, I am changing my stance. Instead of a wave 1 and 2 completion, I'm seeing this as an ABC corrective wave. The movement from Aug. 5 until now is showing a completion of wave 3 of wave 1 of wave 5 complete. I'm expecting a retrace for wave 4 to the 0.382 fib retracement of 541 for completion of wave 4, then a final wave 5 of wave 1 to 560-561. Larger Wave 2 should bring the SPY down to 529-530 if wave 5 of wave 1 completes at 561.
AMEX:SPY
by FiboTrader1
8
Retail bites the FOMO AGAIN - SPY back to 530After the sell off on 8/5, retail traders are starting to pile back in because all the issues magically just disappeared. It is actually comical to see how easily the media controls the narrative of the people and the market. Straight up and down moves are the best times for a reversion to mean trade. Or at least... we'll find out. MACD on hourly cross-over, and S&P moves from 510 to 555 in 2 weeks? I like my odds. We re-test 537 likely in a few weeks. My mental stop is at 558.
AMEX:SPYShort
by js0ng
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-16 : Inside BreakawayThe move in the SPY today is very consistent with my Inside Breakaway SPY Cycle Pattern. Additionally, the move in Gold is exactly what I predicted would happen over two weeks ago. A dual-leg rally up to $2550. Now, we'll watch Gold rally above $2600 as this second leg appears to have considerable momentum. As we close out the week, I do suspect the SPY will attempt to create a right-shoulder for an inverted Head-n-Shoulder pattern next week. So, be prepared for the SPY to possibly consolidate and move downward a bit before attempting another rally phase. My SPY Cycle Patterns tend to agree with this changing cycle phase in the SPY - so there is some consistency related to a right-shoulder setup. Overall, this has been a tremendous week for traders. My research has continued to deliver great results for my followers and the big move in Gold has been incredible. Next week, we'll do it again. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-16 : Gold Rips - Stocks StallThis video highlights why I believe today's Inside Breakaway may come with some surprises. As Gold rips higher (check out my recent Gold videos) and the SPY really broke higher yesterday with a huge upward GAP and rally, I believe the SPY will stall a bit today and attempt to move higher near the end of the trading day today. I don't believe the markets go straight up or straight down. This big Deep-V recovery has run into resistance and I believe an inverted Head-n-Shoulders is likely to setup. You'll see what I'm talking about in today's video. What this means for SPY traders is to stay cautious today. Short - Quick trades will be the key to success. Don't get married to any bigger, longer-term swings in price today. It is all about getting in and out quickly and efficiently. Gold, on the other hand, could rally to $2620 or higher over the next 5+ trading days. Watch the US Dollar and BTCUSD as the Hedge Trade appears to be very active right now. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
SPY: WAVE 3SPY is approaching the 0.786 fib retracement of wave 1. For wave 2, the standard is 0.618, but can go much higher. The condition of wave 2 is that it must not exceed wave 1. With today's run-up, we see volume exceptionally low. This should sound the alarm for traders and is showing me warning signs of a very large reversal. I am anticipating the largest drop in a single day that we have seen this year to come within the next few trading days. This drop will begin the start of wave 3 (the largest of the 5 waves) and many stocks that I follow are showing similar setups. All stocks that I have posted on this week are still within their range and I have not changed my thesis on them. META and AMD especially. Be patient for this setup. My target for the completion of Wave 3 is 464 (161.8% of wave 1). PT1 494, PT2 483
AMEX:SPYShort
by FiboTrader1
21
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-15 : Where's The Counter-Trend MoveIn this video, I explain how news or data-driven events can substantially obscure the SPY Cycle Pattern price trends. My SPY Cycle Patterns are predictions based on Fibonacci & Gann cycles. They attempt to predict typical market price characteristics and trends. When some outside news, data, or other event hits that changes market dynamics enough to drive price in a stronger upward or downward trend, the SPY Cycle Patterns may invalidate or get skewed behind the momentum of the "event" trend. With today's price bar, I believe the closing of the European markets (near Noon in NY) and the end of lunch in NY have a much better chance of seeing prices fall back into the counter-trend Carryover pattern I predicted for today. That means, this afternoon, we may see price roll downward and attempt to move back towards support - just like I would typically expect to see with a counter-trend Carryover pattern. Let's see what happens. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Squeeze after PPI and CPILast week we predicted a squeeze during the week of PPI and CPI. The TVC:VIX has also a target for weakness. However, the value play on the VIX is diminishing after this week. Oil and gold is in a weird situation. I had originally predicted Oil to outperform Gold over the next 30 cycle creating some divergence. We'll see that divergence plays out more in the coming weeks. If the divergence does happen, it will like throw the rising Japanese Yen off kilter. The indices remain quite bullish on the higher frame. All macro points to higher end of year as CPi is now under 3, liquidity, jobs and consumption remains acceptably strong.
AMEX:SPYLong
by KJKaramay