SPY trade ideas
SPY to 487The lower trend line points to down.
The Fibonacci retracement points to down.
The RSI is about to go under 50 on the weekly.
That's my prediction. But I'm a nobody.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-8 : Harami Means IndecisionThis update to my morning video was created to help you understand why a Harami pattern will likely prompt fairly large price rotation today.
The Harami pattern is an indecision type of pattern. It suggests price is struggling to find direction and may attempt to test upper and lower boundaries.
The purpose of the Harami pattern is to flush out weaker trading positions while, essentially, completing a minor Flag formation.
The Harami pattern is an Inside Bar. By structure, this Inside Bar is a Flag setup (very short-term).
The end of a Flag Formation means price will attempt to move into a new trending mode - or move back into a new Flag formation.
Pay attention to how price constructs this Harami/Flag pattern today.
Get some.
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SPY ES short back on table In the event the two day low is taken out to the down side, that will stimulate me into action on taking a short. This may only have a small move but want to have runner at that point just in case.
I have not seen acceptance of the higher prices. An amazing top 6 top 8 push this week, really impressive stuff. yet when the next and the rest of the top 50 going hard could not hold higher ground told me bulls for this move had to power.
We will see if i can get triggered and get enough move to cover put decay. Yes will be controlling the loss on this one with options.
I will take long trades and sure have been. just only posting about my short quest.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-8 : A Volatile Harami PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami/Inside.
Because of the recent price volatility and the current price FLAG setup, I expect today's Harami pattern to include a fairly large high/low price range. That means we may see very solid price trending (up/down) throughout the day - whereas today's open/close range should stay within yesterday's open/close range.
If you've been following my research, I expect the SPY to attempt to mount a fairly strong rally over the next 10+ days (possibly longer). After the recent bout of volatility (the Kamala-Crush), I believe the US markets will attempt to move into what I'm calling a Vortex Rally based on simple fundamentals.
In order for this to happen, we need to see a few things happen:
- the US dollar continues to strengthen
- crude oil should continue to slide downward (possibly targeting $65)
- IYT (TRAN) should stay somewhat muted into the end of this year
- Gold/Silver should continue to move upward
- Global markets should continue to struggle
If this happens, it will strengthen my Vortex Rally expectations into 2025 and beyond.
Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not always 100% accurate. But they can provide a very clear context for expectations, and when used with other TA techniques and proper risk management - they can be incredibly helpful.
Get some.
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SPY and Gaps: Essential Data for Traders and Investors🔍 Research Data:
Analysis Period: 12/31/1999 to 08/02/2024
Target Asset: ETF SPY
Time Frame: 1 Week
Total Candles: 1284
Candles with Gaps: 241
Percentage of Gaps: 18.77%
However, only 33 of these gaps, or 13.69% of the gaps, remained by the end of the week.
What is a Gap? Gaps are spaces on the chart where no trading occurred. They form when the opening of a candle is higher than the previous candle’s high or lower than the previous candle’s low. Gaps are usually caused by significant news or events that occur outside of normal trading hours.
Why is this Important? For traders and investors, understanding the occurrence of gaps is crucial. This data reveals that although 18.77% of weekly candles present gaps, the majority of these gaps do not persist until the end of the week. This can be used to adjust positions and create specific strategies that take advantage of the potential return to previous gap levels.
Possible Strategy:
Condition: Candle opens below the previous candle's low
Entry: Buy at market
Target: Previous candle's low
Exit: Candle close if the target is not hit;
Disclaimer
⚠️ Important Notice:
Personal Data: The above research is based on my personal data and analysis of the weekly chart of the ETF SPY.
Independent Verification: I strongly recommend that you conduct your own research to confirm this scenario before using this information.
Strategy Testing: Always test your strategies in simulated environments or with capital that you can afford to lose before applying them in the real market.
If you found this information useful, give this post a boost! Don't forget to follow me for more trading insights and strategies. Let's connect – drop your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! 🚀📈
$SPY August 8,2024AMEX:SPY August 8,2024
15 Minutes
Gap up was not able to sustain.
And 529-533 was resistance as expected.
Now for the day i will take 2 numbers.
The rise 510.28 to 531.59
The fall 531.59 to 518.05
The rise has retraced 61.8%So holding 514 levels is crucial for the day.
And for the fall 526 level could be resistance on a retrace.
So, i will sell below 514 and buy above 529 for the day.
This gives a 15$ gap.
So based on close of bar in 14 minutes during the day if i get a chance to enter above 522 levels, and moving average 9 is above 21 then I might go for a trade for 527-529 levels.
AMEX:SPY is weak as it is below all moving averages. So, any buy is only a contra trade with strict stop loss.
Where is the S&P500 trend?Where is the S&P500 going with this recent decline?
We can observe to key parallel channels that have acted as support and resistance both in the near and short term.
The Uplsoping channel in on watch as price action is struggling to close back above. As long as we remain in the upsloping channel we have to observe the risk of falling to the lower boundary range.
If we recapture the falling channel we can always float back up to the upper range.
SPY: Wave 5SPY bounce hard upward this morning to complete minor wave 4. Wave 5 began 2 hours into cash session and completed wave (possibly wave 2), and we will begin wave 3 of 5 within the next day, I believe. Final target for Wave 5 is 497, then a larger wave 2 begins.
Wave 2 PT is 540
Strategy Puts or Calls$516 is the mark. Open above $516 then we can see $521 by thursday. If we lose $516 then we can see $507 by thursday. Only buy options after we break or lose !!!
Good luck !!!
$SPY $QQQ etc. Bearish trendDownward megaphone, markets built a bear flag since Black Monday's drop. Perhaps we will see $500 AMEX:SPY next, finally!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days.
If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week.
Watch the video I created this morning to learn more.
This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities.
Get some.
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SPY -Are you seeing what I'm seeing?I know , SPY is oversold but technically this is what I'm seeing. Probably 500 is for sure but 518 should break for it to be possible.
Watch me read and trade the market like youve never seen before.Long video but WELL worth the watch if you're trying to learn how I do what I do. In this video I walk through every candle on a 1 minute chart prior to the impending drop - and I explain how and why I am expecting the drop.
There is simply no other way to read the market with this much certainty and confidence! And whatever I do here on the 1 minute chart can be identically correlated to the 5 min, 15 min, 1HR, 1D, 1M, etc. All time frames work together and it's important to use them all to tell the story and pick the best entries.
Feel free to ask questions in the comments or let me know if you found this helpful, cool, or anything!
Happy Trading :)
Crash energy again Short SPY biglyI'm in a hurry here. I get high today, crash action within a day and target 15% down. SPY shouldn't get above $533.
This lines up with messages a long time ago suggesting the market gives back almost the entire rally, so we'll see.
SPY: Dead Cat Bounce? D&W Charts.After reaching a critical turning point, the SPY seems to be trying to react, and we see a decent recovery.
In previous studies, we successfully identified the top signal on the weekly chart, the featured Bearish Engulfing, which culminated in a sharp drop to the support point at $510. The link to our latest public study here on TradingView is below this post.
Now, we see that the price has left some gaps on the daily chart, and the first of them was closed yesterday, which makes it an Exhaustion Gap, one of the four types of gap.
In theory, the SPY should recover in the medium term, but we don't yet see a reversal chart structure suggesting a change in sentiment. For now, SPY is still making downward tops and bottoms, and is still below the 21-day EMA, so we need to stay alert, as it is still a bear trend, despite the short/mid-term bullish outlook.
I'll keep you updated.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
All the best,
Nathan.
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
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$SPY ShortPlaying the relief bounce bear flag AMEX:SPY , would like to see lower volume into tomorrow and distribution into the 538-541 area then swing weekly puts
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : SPY Settles - Gold RalliesThis video highlights what I believe will be the best opportunities for the SPY/QQQ over the next 7+ trading days while highlighting how Gold is setup for a dual-leg rally phase (possibly moving up above $2550) over the next 7+ days.
My continued efforts to deliver pertinent and actionable trade data to my followers are based on the concept that "I do the research—you make all the decisions."
I'm not trying to tell you what to do or when to trade. I'm just showing you what I see on the charts using my skills and understanding of advanced price theories and technical analysis. If it helps you out - perfect. If not, then forget about my research and move on to something/someone else.
Overall, my real objective is to provide very high-quality content (it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong—I'll stand by my research/data every day).
Today's video is very important. Please understand there are two or three big setups taking place in the SPY/QQQ and Gold over the next 7 to 10+ days.
If my research is correct, this is a wonderful time to plan/prepare for these big moves.
Get some.
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$SPY Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024AMEX:SPY Trading Range for Today, August 7th 2024
Ok. Last night I feel asleep without getting the second part of my video done. I have been exHAUTed this past week but next week I will have more energy and a lot of sleep is on the books for me.
So today’s implied move is between 514-540
Tomorrow’s implied move 511-532
To the upside, look out to the 35EMA on the 30min timeframe. Look for signs of support and if we get above it than the target to the upside today on the day is 530. The 4hr 200MA is at the very top of the implied move and it smacked us down yesterday. At the top of the trading range we have the rest of that bear gap from the gap we opened the week with.
To the downside, we have a bull gap from yesterdays gap up, the bottom of that gap is at 5186, and then the bottom of the implied move for today is 517.
The WEEKLY 35EMA is our support and it’s just outside of the implied move and within tomorrow’s implied move.
SPY next leg down. We’ve been in an upward channel for 2 days now. Last night looked like we’d leg down but this morning looks like we’ll open at the top. 529-530 looks like top here. I’ll wait for opening but I wouldn’t Be surprised if trapped long liquidate here if it holds. Everyone long should
Head for the door.
$SPY August 7,2024AMEX:SPY August 7,2024
15 Minutes
Buy above 524 was triggered. Closed the trade around 528 levels around 100averages.
Now for the rise 514.9 to 529.75 AMEX:SPY has retraced 50% to 522 levels.
So today holding 520 levels we can expect a target for 529 to 533 levels.
On reverse, i will sell below 518 for 511 range.
