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Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic? Understanding the Economic Data Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession. In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time. Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern. Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around. With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves. Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets. Understanding the Market Trends While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound. The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts. The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell. The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk. This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy. Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation. Concluding Thoughts While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
AMEX:SPY
by ingeforberg
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further. Watch this video to learn more. The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP. Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
08/06 SPY ATR Levels and RangeLooking for these ATR levels, volume, price action and technical confluence to make decisions. Seems like its a waiting on your hands kind of day, honestly I think once the Olympics is over and citizens return to their countries, something on a GEO scale may happen, thats my speck on this. Otherwise Harris to drop her VP choice, the debate is still on schedule, the tensions over seas is still building. The only report I see on the table is the 11:00 AM Total Household Debt Q2. Not sure how impactful that will be on things. My overall feeling is neutral at the moment. I like to see what the market does and reacts before making any type of move or decision. ATR on spay is 6.48, again, A larger number than the last 6 months of this year. I suspect and caluculate that due to the massive selloffs that have been taking place all over. SCALP SR2 521.67 SR1 520.83 SPOP 520.00 LAST PRICE 519.16 SBREAK 518.32 SS1 517.49 SS2 516.65 STANDARD R2 527.52 R1 524.30 POP 522.38 LAST PRICE 519.16 BREAK 515.98 S1 513.44 S2 511.75
AMEX:SPY
by TuskenDayTrade
There's A Setup For A BounceFor fun, no idea what I'm doing. Same as all the last times really, just see how it goes tomorrow morning, right now futures are up a bit and will open up a bit if it remains like this. Will still be kind of okay looking though, around lower BB. Depending on what happens tonight going into tomorrow it's setting up for a bounce as crazy as that looks and sounds. The bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line Aug 6. If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea. I literally only post when this is set up and the last time was last week! The time before that was Oct 30 23, and I posted the weekend before. Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days? From the low of Aug 6 - I usually say 5% chance of ~+10% by Aug 9 (top yellow circle) 40% chance of +5.5% by Aug 9 (lower yellow circle) 60% chance of +5.5% by Aug 20 (right yellow circle) Really really really don't think we will get +10% with how things are set up as that's ATHs, but just saying it does happen sometimes (not when it's like this though). More like if we get a bounce, it goes down again like this it'll be that time. Last week I wasn't very optimistic about it (and it didn't happen anyway). This time it's still pretty high, but QQQ is in sync with SPY which means both can go up together now which is a little something. Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail. If it does bounce, no idea how long it'll last. You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ABirdOfParadise
15 Minutes.AMEX:SPY Aug 6, 2024 15 Minutes. AMEX:SPY managed to hold above 505 yesterday. We take 3 numbers The fall 554.86 to 510.28 The fall 533.17 to 510.28 The fall 523.58 to 514.9 For the first fall AMEX:SPY made lL but oscillator also LL. Hence sell on rise probably until 538 is crossed. For the second fall AMEX:SPY even with gap doen yesterday AMEX:SPY managed to retrace 61.8% arounf 523.5 levels. Hence 510 should provide a good support today. For the third set from 523.58 to 514.90 a retracement to 521 levels will give a change to short as it is also 50 averages. On upside if 524 is crossed and we get a good close being near top of bar then 530-532 should be a target to aim as it will be approximately 100 200 averages number. So, for the day i will go long above 524 and short 521 levels.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
$SPY #RisingWedge #BearFlag "That's Bidenomics! Puts!" #WarnedPretty clear flagpole + flag(rising wedge) = bearish technicals ALL OVER I think market is in for another shake up day like we've experienced the past 2 weeks... This rising wedge looks is present on most of the MAG7 at the moment... Warning Sent (Null and void if we continue up with strength and hold on the month 550+) No positions at the moment = waiting for market to confirm thesis... *Hearing Emergency rate cut if SP:SPX close below 5,350 on the month... Flagpoles leads/measure us right there = "decision spot" (Biden ClownWorld Upside-down USA) =) Proph
AMEX:SPYShort
by Prophecies_R_Us
15
SPY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080524Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 510/61.80% Chart time frame : C A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress : C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) Hit the Support D) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AMEX:SPY
by fibonacci6180
1
SPY breakout from consolidation - uptrend is not brokenSpy has now broken out of consolidation. I feel election year is gonna push this higher along with the economic downturn. Some will say economic downturn? How is that bullish. Its bullish because, the last thing America would want during an economic downturn is their stock market to collapse. They keep propping this up until the foreign money in the US market is at maximum levels. That when they'll dump. Once the foreign money is shaken out, they will resume uptrend. This is just my personal theory. Whichever way, the price action is bullish. Some will point at volume. Over the years, i have never found volume to be a reliable indicator.
AMEX:SPY
by Broketothebone
49
S&P weekly consolidation in progress; bears prove controlLast week was marked by hectic price action in both directions. Bulls failed to set a daily low for two consecutive days (Monday-Tuesday), which logically led to a strong bearish attack. Then something peculiar happened – the price pivoted near the previous low and went up during the overnight session. The market opened with a huge gap on Wednesday, held the open, and even managed to rally further in the regular session. I can only imagine how many short traders, who had done everything right, suffered from this. This price action also confused many long traders, including myself, by making us believe that the weekly consolidation was coming to an end. But Thursday turned the board 180 degrees again with a psychotic bearish move, wiping out more than 2% of the market value. Again, as with the bullish rally, there was no obvious trigger unless you believe that PMI data could wield such importance. At this point, we have the following disposition: 1. The market is still in a weekly uptrend. Until sellers take down the previous major low (491), nothing changes in this regard. 2. Bears have proved strong control over the weekly timeframe. We should respect this. 3. Bears were also able to start monthly consolidation, another sign of their strength. All in all, I wouldn’t consider any long-term “buys” until bulls manage to set a convincing weekly low, even then with caution. Shorting is an option but is very tricky in light of what happened last week. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
SPY Monthly Megaphones - Longer term SP500 buying planTLDR: Flat on stocks, waiting for very deep discounts several years in the future Details: Expecting it to make another megaphone shape similar to the one it made from 2017 to 2020. The idea is it will hunt for liquidity under the 350 swing. This means to watch for a buying zone in the region of 372 to 290 from around July 2025 to May 2026. This zone also lines up with the lines of several long term pitchforks and gives exit targets along those forks' medians. Reasons to expect so much bearishness include: Nancy Pelosi, Buffet selling at the top Intel CEO praying on twitter Unrest in UK Tensions/war in Gaza, Ukraine, Iran Kramer saying it's not the end of the world If those situations resolve then it may not need to hunt deeply below 350 and in fact the 400 price zone may be a better re-entry spot. But if the overall macro news stories continue to be saturated with uncertainty then it's much better to wait for deeply discounted prices rather than catch a falling knife.
AMEX:SPY
by mljones
3
SPY BEARISH SEASONALITYThe SP500 Index, and specifically the SPY ETF, has been mostly bearish in the past 96 years during the period from August 2nd to September 30th.If we perform the same analysis on seasonality over a shorter time period (e.g., 10 or 25 years), the statistics don't change much. Seasonality is not favorable, and this year, due to the relentless and unstoppable rises since October '23 and a concurrently unstable geopolitical situation, I would suggest postponing any averaging or purchase of shares for an accumulation plan in this instrument until mid-October. We might see a reduction in volatility, but a return of the index to new highs seems unlikely. Whatever you do, please be cautious with money management and avoid blindly following the dangerous 'Buy the Dip' strategy. Thank you.
AMEX:SPYShort
by NewHOrizons1