SPY, QQQ & NVDA: Week of June 17Hey everyone,
Wasn't in the mood to type, so here is my analysis in video format!
Hope you enjoy and as always, feel free to leave your questions below :).
Safe trades!
SPY trade ideas
Standard Corrective Phase... 2-3% to goS&P500 has a history of 50% retracements in uptrends..
We had 3 quarters of positive price action.. a 50% retrace isn't out of the ordinary for the indexes and based off this data, a further drop in the index of 2-3% seems inevitable.
$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.Update:
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
Market Soars with Unyielding MomentumLast week was marked by complete bullish dominance. After positive inflation data was released on Wednesday, the market opened with a significant gap up. The next day, sellers made a sluggish attempt to fill this gap but never came close. To sum it up:
1. Prices are in an uptrend on weekly, monthly, and daily charts.
2. Last week closed strong with almost no seller pressure.
3. There is an unfilled gap from Wednesday, the 12th.
So far, this market is fully controlled by buyers. Notably, growth is driven mostly by tech stocks, reflecting a "risk-on" mode of investing. Some people are concerned about the narrow breadth, but it doesn't matter much whether growth is driven by many names or just a few large stocks. While narrow breadth can lead to increased volatility, the fact is that money is being poured into the market. As long as this continues, the market will remain strong.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
$SPY June 19, 2024AMEX:SPY June 19, 2024
15 Minutes.
Holding 547 AMEX:SPY is aiming for 550-551.5 as next target. Last support for this uptrend is 544 levels which is 61.8% retracement for the last rise as marked.
Learning To Plan Your Trade With SPY Cycle PatternsDid you watch my SPY Cycle Pattern video this morning? Were you aware that today was designated a Harami-Inside type of price action? This type of pattern represents a very narrow, often trendless, trading day.
I warned all of you before the market opened that today would be a day to sit back and wait for the market to show us whether it wanted to trend or not. Obviously, there were some quick pullbacks and trends—but nothing very big. If you had stayed out of the market most of the day, you probably would have been happy avoiding the chop.
Tomorrow is a big CRUSH pattern. These patterns are usually fairly large price range bars that often move against the 3~5 bar trend - in this case, downward.
This video covers the next three weeks of trading in the SPY and shows how I read the SPY Cycle Patterns as "sentences" related to how prices will react and move (including trends and ranges) going forward.
Of course, nothing is 100% perfect when predicting future price trends. But I think you'll find real value in the SPY Cycle Patterns and how they can help everyone prepare for the type of price action to expect.
Plan your trade. Use all the tools required to help you make better decisions.
Remember, trade only when the market provides opportunity and efficient price trends.
I'll keep updating these videos for all of you over the next few weeks. Let's go make some money as the markets trend into Q2:2024 earnings.
SPY: Daily and Weekly Chart InsightsDaily Chart: Ascending Channel and Key Breakout
The daily chart of the SPY shows a robust upward trend within an ascending channel. The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, respecting the channel's boundaries. Key levels include the lower boundary of the channel as dynamic support and the 21-day EMA as a critical support level. Recently, SPY broke above the previous top at 533.07, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. Only if the SPY loses the 21-day EMA and this $533.07 support we would see a mid-term pullback. If the price continues to respect the ascending channel, it could reach higher resistance levels around 560.
Weekly Chart: Bullish Momentum and Support Levels
The weekly chart highlights a strong bullish trend with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The price is well-supported by the 21-week EMA. Key support levels include the 21-week EMA and the previous swing low at 524.11. The recent break above previous highs around 533 indicates sustained buying interest. If the bullish momentum continues, SPY could move towards the 550-560 range. However, a break below the 21-week EMA might signal a potential correction, with the next support around 500-510.
Conclusion: Strong Bullish Momentum with Clear Support and Resistance
Both the daily and weekly charts of SPY indicate a strong bullish trend within an ascending channel. The recent breakout above the previous top at 533.07 on the daily chart and the consistent higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart suggest that the bullish momentum is likely to continue.
Key support levels to watch are the 21-day EMA at 534.43 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel on the daily chart, as well as the 21-week EMA at 514.79 on the weekly chart. Resistance levels include the upper boundary of the ascending channel and the psychological levels around 550-560.
Overall, SPY appears poised for further gains as long as it remains within the ascending channel and above the key support levels. We should monitor these levels closely for potential breakout or reversal signals.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
Plan your trade for 6/18/24 - SPY researchHere is another video to help you prepare for the next 2+ weeks of trading in the US markets.
Using my specialized SPY Cycle Patterns and technical analysis, I still see the markets consolidating in a melt-up type of trending over the next 2+ weeks before moving into a strong rally phase near late June/early July.
You can see how my SPY cycle patterns help into understand opportunities and when to prepare for more aggressive trading.
Today is a Harami-Inside pattern - meaning I will be mostly sitting on the sidelines today. Maybe targeting one or two quick trades.
But tomorrow and the rest of this/next week look very solid for more moderate/aggressive trading in bigger price trends. And, I'm going to start preparing for the RALLY, RALLY, RALLY phase near July 1, 2024.
Learn how my specialized research can help you. Learn the Mechanics of Trading.
Let's go get'em.
SPY IMO a small gap down Tuesday morning, dip buyers taking it to another leg high to stop shorts out hitting the resistance, shaping up that nice RSI hourly divergence.
Then a straight healthy pullback to that gap fill.
Disclaimer: Just an idea, not a trading advice.
My position: A few puts 7-10 days out. Scalping + weekly shorts
SPY ADD TARGETS Looking at two price targets to add to SPY. In the case that the market cools in the following weeks / monthsI am looking at $525 level one to add and then looking to add again if we reach as low as $475.
SPY Top?SPY reached the top end of its ascending wedge it has been forming since October of 2023. QQQ is also in a similar spot, I'd expect a failure here. I've been expecting failures, but resistances keep getting broken, so I'll be cautiously optimistic about a failure here. VX is still showing strength, which I find odd. It may be telling of what's to come, but the trend is up for now.
$SPY June 18, 2024AMEX:SPY June 18, 2024
15 Minutes.
As shared on June 13, 2024, setup AMEX:SPY achieved the 546-548 target in one swift move.
And we have a sell bar at ATH in 15 minutes at 548.53, close being near low of bar.
If we take the last rise from 548.61 to 548.53 AMEX:SPY need to hold 544.5 levels to resume uptrend.
In 60 minutes if we take the move 518.36 to 539.9 to 532.04, we have fib extension of 546 as 78.6% extension and 550 as 100% extension.
And in 15 minutes if we consider the move 532.04 to 544.12 to 539.59, we have 549 as 78.6 and 551 as 100% extension for the move.
Hence 548.53 looks like a temporary top.
545 should give a n opportunity to go long with 543 as SL and 550-551 as target for the moment.
Remember the close in day is good so any shorts around 547-548 levels must be covered around 545.
Opened (IRA): SPY August 16th 493 Monied Covered Call... for a 485.25 debit.
Comments: (Late Post). Sold the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 485.25
Max Profit: 7.75 ($775)
ROC at Max: 1.60%
ROC at 50% Max: .80%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the entire setup (stock + short call) as a unit, but won't hesitate to roll out the short call if in profit to keep my break even at or near where the underlying is currently trading or to maintain delta metrics.
This is kind of my new favorite setup in the IRA versus short put, particularly in underlyings where the put side is skewed closer to at-the-money than call and where there is heightened IV on the call side.
As previously noted, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment, since you get little buying power relief going with short put over this setup. On margin, the general answer pretty much always is "go with the short put" since that is more buying power efficient than being in stock or in covered call.
Plan Your Trades - SPY Research For 6/17 & BeyondI put together this video to help traders plan and prepare for the next 30-60+ days - as we move into Q2:2024 earnings and pre-election consolidation.
Every week, I spent hours going over my Custom Indexes, proprietary price modeling systems, sector analysis, and more. My goal is to help as many traders as possible prepare for the greatest opportunities of their life (the next 5 to 10+ years).
I see so many traders getting trapped into following free or paid internet advice and blowing up their accounts. In my opinion, stick to the basics. Price is the ultimate indicator.
Then, determine the true bias of price trend and identify strong candidates to profit within that trend.
If you are a daytrader - you probably won't like my research/comments. I don't really daytrade much. I'm more of a swing trader - looking for 8% to 25% swings that take 3 to 20+ weeks to mature.
Either way, this video will help you understand what to expect over the next 30-60+ days in the US/global markets. Prepare for a big move in late June or early July.
Spy SPY is on an uptrend, and if it pulls back tomorrow, I plan to go long as long as it stays above 544, which I consider a bullish signal. However, if it fails to hold above 540, that would be bearish.
