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TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITEDTT

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

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TWE trade ideas

TWE.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Does Corn Really Lead Treasury Wines?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome. The blue line in the graph above is corn (futures) projected forward, now why on earth would corn lead the Treasury Wines share price? While I let you ponder the answer to that the correlation between a projected forward corn price and TWE has been relatively high through history at approximately 30%, simply scroll back through the chart and you can see for yourself that corn has a pretty good track record of leading TWE. Now that we have a projection of sorts the next step would be to conjure up a trade based on this intermarket relationship (if it truly does indeed exist). Let me draw your attention to the system on screen, it is a reverse of the Supertrend STRATEGY (Inputs: ATR Length, 3, Factor 1.5) where it buys the short term dips and sells the short term rallies. An analysis of performance shows that TWE is a very choppy stock. To see performance scroll down to the bottom of the chart and make sure Supertrend STRATEGY is showing. Now the next trick is to view the Performance Summary (not overview) where is breaks down the performance of long trades v short trades. An analysis of long trades shows buying dips was highly profitable with a profit factor above 2 and a high percentage of winning trades. With this evidence the way I would trade TWE is to use Corn, or seasonal analysis or similar to obtain a bullish bias and then look to buy into a pull back on TWE. Once set I would then look to sell the position once the stock reached an overbought level. Stop Losses are a little difficult to set on a mean reversion strategy as theoretically the bigger the pull back the better the opportunity but I would suggest a fairly wide stop level of around 10-15% of the stock price as an emergency stop in case the trades really goes wrong. The question you're obviously asking is should I get long now? In my opinion awaiting a pull back is probably the best strategy, you could use a stochastic or RSI indicator (or any oscillator) for that matter and look to enter during oversold zones and close out during an overbought period.
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by andrew.gibbs777
Quick Scalp on TWESaw this stock on my scanner and for some reason traders really like it, it had no news today. So I thought I will jump in as well. It was B class trade for me, I prefer to see the stock above both EMA’s but still a great trade. 1 min: great set up a 1 min chart great push then a pull back and go for the break out above, love these kind of trades. And this is a 6 Billion cap as well so it move nicely. Got in at $9.86 with 1000 shares, then yet again got way to early again, I leave so much on the table. Spark: didn’t see this until 10.27am, saw that the sellers where thinning out with a pull back trade set up. I did say to my self once it breaks $9.85 that when I will go in, so I got in at $9.86 10.27am then go out at 10.30am $9.92, then it went up another 5 ticks! So annoying.
AEducation
by MustafaOzak23
Great risk/reward ratio pick - TWEBack in Aug when TWE announced great 3Q result, it went from $11.5> $13.12 in one single day. It was then severely impacted by the gradually intensifying tension between AUS and China, the stock price has then free fall all the way to ~$8 especially after Chinese gov announced applying tariffs on Australian wine exports. However, it appears that $8 is already the rock bottom by looking at both the price action and the recent news the TWE is actually seeking other markets to expand (themarketherald.com.au). I wouldnt be surprise the stock price could recover back to $10.63 (~20% gain from now) in short term, and towards $13 when the pandemic gradually smoothens across the globe with very limited downsize at $8 as cut loss and solid support.
ALong
by Squishybrain
TWE: a Bull Flag here?This chart was posted by a fellow trader at our recent ATAA meeting and caught my attention for the clean chart pattern it presented. IMHO, TWE is consolidating in a classic-style Bull Flag under the psychological, whole-number $20 level. The Flagpole here is about $15 so Technical Theory would suggest that any bullish breakout move might extend by a similar margin. Thus, I'll be watching for any weekly breakout here and, if bullish, I'll be looking for a move up to the $35 level.
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by Tradecharting
TWE Simple AnalysisThis is my first published idea so be kind. Always appreciate feedback. This is not financial advise, just my thoughts and opinions. TWE is looking good after a brief period of consolidation around the 17 mark. It has rising volume and is showing signs of a good move up early next week. Today the price moved well above the recent consolidation zone (see chart). Today's volume is still a little low for me to say it is a confirmed breakout. All indicators showing an upward trend (see chart). I will be keeping an eye on this one next week and if it continues it's move up with good volume I will be going long on TWE. Happy hunting, John
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by JWB26