Are you ready for the multiyear bear market?This is an indicator of a multi year bear market.
60 cash/40 stocks is the best strategy now. Cash is back to be king.
VTS trade ideas
VTI rejection of 161 could set up huge fall.If VTI is setting up for a big rejection of this 161 inflection point, under it we're liable to see some serious fireworks. It would easily be the biggest VTI points crash we've ever seen if this was to develop.
VTS is one of the most stable index/ETF'sI believe VTS is going only 1 way, and that's up. Look at the trend and market statistics and you can see that this index is one of the most reliable and least volatile long term investments, I own 24 units of this index and I'm extremely confident that this is a strong buy.
Just an experiment.What could happen?
AMEX:VTI
AMEX:SPY
TVC:SPX
SPCFD:SPX
TVC:NDX
NASDAQ:NDAQ
CURRENCYCOM:US100
Stock Market Crash Prediction: Worst 70% Crash before 2022 Feb?Hi all. While Bitcoin is not performing well, the stock market is doing very well these days. Me also invest in the Vanguard VTI stock, and I see a massive gain on the portfolio.
But as everyone concerns, until when this uptrend movement will keep up to? Here's one of the many ways to think the problem.
Here I used the trend based fibonacci time and the fibonacci channel technical analysis tools. They are based on the fibonacci numbers and tell us a rough measure for possible supports and resistances.
Now as the chart, the market crash is coming, right in front of us. From my analysis I think it would be roughly between 2021 October to 2022 February. And as the 2008 crash, it would be 50 to 60% throwback. But to be very honest, it may not enough dump on the other hand. From the past crash data, it says 57%, but from seeing the chart, the -60% support zone is a little too thin. And, just returning back to the 1.618 fibonacci zone, where the same level to the 2020 April COVID flash crash is apparently not enough, to me at least.
So, here's my analysis. I don't TA usually on stock charts, so I'm curious your opinion on this analysis. Share your idea on the comment.
Also, as always, this is not a financial advice. Have a nice trade.
A Total Market continuation patternLooking at the Total US Stock Market (VTI), we can see an obvious arching formation to the Covid-crater rebound, like the decaying upward trajectory of a thrown ball. This trend is characterized by short intervals of consolidation followed by breakouts that exert less upward momentum than the prior breakout. Each of those consolidation phases knocks the rebound's trajectory down a notch, manifest as a lessening of its slope angle, as depicted above. If that pattern continues, this post presents a trend range we might see.
Big picture, this arching over probably is not a prelude to an end-of-the-world crash but a gradual slope correction into a long-term trajectory matching the long-term pre-Covid slope. Since March 2020, the upward slope of the US market has been exceptionally steep, too steep to sustain. So the market has to correct and the pattern of consolidation followed by lesser breakouts seen above is a predictable necessary process of correcting the market into its less steep long-term trajectory (which I've shown in other ideas posted). The arch is 'the invisible hand' dialing back the post-Covid crater exuberance.
Volatility Index Peaking Above 12 again. Watch Out BelowThis Custom Index helps to gauge market peaks (above 12~13 usually) and bottoms (below 7~8 usually). When this Custom Index hovers above 10~11, the market tends to trend higher with volatility event ranging from 7% to 11% in price breakdowns. The fact that this indicator has broken a historic standard deviation channel because of COVID and quickly regained price activity within this channel again suggests that the markets have become extremely overvalued (hyper-inflated). A reversion event is likely to draw this indicator back below 8~9 which would suggest a downside price event is likely to setup over the Summer months in global markets.
Given the amount of Central Bank and US Fed intervention recently, I'm expecting a deleveraging event (possibly related to a credit/asset crisis) that may shock the markets over the next 24 months. My broader cycles research suggests we have entered a Depreciation phase that may last well past 2027. Therefore, it is very likely that extreme volatility events are likely.
Stay properly hedged. This is not a friendly market any longer (simple upside trends). This market has turned very dangerous for unskilled traders.
My advice, prepare for chaos and protect your assets ahead of a risks/crisis event. The next 5+ years are not going to be normal market trends. We may see crisis events throughout many areas of the world related to over leveraging, deleveraging, credit market crisis and/or continued COVID/economic crisis events.
In short, this market is setup for a massive deleveraging event within the next 24 months.
SWAN and NTSX Comparison to VTIHow does SWAN reduce volatility so much with a small decrease in annual returns? What risks does it take on to achieve this?
VTI - LONG - Entry points analysisVTI becoming increasingly overpriced after the pandemic recovery and the massive amounts of money printing began. Look at 3-5 year picture to get the idea.
Of course, the Fed's printing has increased the momentum for all equities. But how much longer can this steep increase - detached from all fundamental and prior performance - be sustained?
Those with a 10+ year hold objective may want to hold out with purchasing VTI until we see what the summer brings. Yellow triangle marks short term entry points. Large purple trapezoid marks potential entry points in the long term for those starting to feel bearish about these valuations.
US Market Normalized to M2 Money SupplyAnother view of the US market trend considering the substantial fed stimulus, a lot more upside potential.
Vanguard etf VTI is in its late stages of an impulse wave.A five wave impulse down larger than the March decline or a major sell signal will be a clear sign the motive phase from 2009 is over and the corrective phase of an Elliott Wave cycle has begun.
VTI - $168 Entry / Back to $1800. Great Fund as follows:
VTI Fund Description
VTI tracks a cap-weighted index that measures the investable US equities market, encompassing the entire market-cap spectrum.
VTI Factset Analytics Insight
VTI is a good choice for investors or traders looking for comprehensive, total-market equity exposure, including micro-caps. The fund offers neutral coverage, making no industry, size or style bets to speak of. The fund is passively managed and remains fully invested at all times. Over its long life the ETF has tracked various broad indexes from Dow Jones, MSCI, and as of June 2013, CRSP. Its current index aligns extremely well with our MSCI benchmark. Our only gripe is common to all Vanguard ETFs: portfolio disclosure is lagged, and reported monthly—rather than daily.
VTI Top 10 Holdings
Apple Inc.5.12%
Microsoft Corporation4.80%
Amazon.com, Inc.4.14%
Facebook, Inc. Class A1.88%
Alphabet Inc. Class A1.38%
Alphabet Inc. Class C1.31%
Johnson & Johnson1.19%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B1.11%
Procter & Gamble Company1.00%
Visa Inc. Class A0.99%
Total Top 10 Weighting 22.93%
VTI - Vanguard World Index LONG idea- Price is making new highs for the year
- Measured first target is 195.19
- A tight SL can be a close below 20 moving average or wider one below the last swing low. AMEX:VTI
