XAO - Bearish Divergence leading into 2021 !!The overall market has been extremely bullish in the later part of 2020, however, MACD bearish divergence is starting to present.
I'm thinking that this suggests that the trend may slow leading into 2021 or a bearish move is on the cards at some point. Will watch closely.
A similar divergence persisted in 2019 and into early 2020 which resulted in the bearish cv February 2020 pullback. Check related ideas below to compare.
XAO trade ideas
Broad ASX All Ord shows lagging Midcaps (Tech & Mining) from NovThe broad ASX All Ordinaries Index (XAO), since the beginning of November 2020, shows the underperformance of previously overperforming Midcap (XMD) sectors of Information Technology (XIJ - note particularly the high flyer Afterpay APT) - and Mining (XMM) to a lesser extent.
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) - Cycle Wave 5 Almost CompleteThis market just needs to make one more all time high to complete 5 Waves up since 1900.
Cycle Wave 1 1900 - 1913
Cycle Wave 2 1913 - 1920
Cycle Wave 3 1920 - 1967
Cycle Wave 4 1967 - 2009
Cycle Wave 5 2009 - 2020\2021
Alternation between Wave 2 and 4:
Wave 2 shallow sideways and short in duration.
Wave 4 expanded to the upside and long in duration.
Wave 5 is an ending diagonal which means that waves 2 and 4 can overlap.
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ALL ORDINARIES – An Expected MoveBeen speaking about this Index Heavily, this movement is to be expected & I’ll explain why.
- This Demand Zone that we are moving through today was a 4H Demand Zone, it was Low Quality, meaning there is levels underneath it that are formed on Market Pivots, which yield Higher Quality Demand Zones
- There are a number of Levels in the way of the Main Demand Zone at 5700
- Most notably the 23.6% Fibonacci Level, this area lines up nicely with liquidity to the left where we have multiple respected daily candles & wicks
- This would be the most logical High Timeframe level to look towards, which the 23.6% Fibonacci Level acting as nice support for XAO.
- We’ve got a decent amount of room on the indicators, Steamroller, CCI & RSI to facilitate a move in that direction also.
- Our in-house developed Unicon Indicator was telling us there was an increasing bearish bias forming at the 6250 level (Orange Arrow) and that is being maintained with this break of the Demand Level.
Looking towards that 23.6% Fibonacci Level in the immediate term.
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Sector Indices vs ASX All Ords show earlier Aug deteriorationSector Indices vs ASX All Ordinaries Index show earlier deterioration of the market throughout August (whereas XJO only starts to deteriorate from Aug 28): in the largest 20 companies of the XTL index, in Communications XTJ, Resources XJR, Materials XMJ, Financials XXJ, Consumer Staples XSJ, Utilities XUJ. See next "Idea" for the sectors that prevented the XJO from slumping early.
XAO - downtrend to new lows aheadXAO just reached 0.618 retracement of primary wave 1 down and completed the counting of five waves for the completion of intermediate wave C. For higher confirmation a move below 5,600 would almost eliminate the contrary odds. The next move should be in direction to levels below 4,500. If prices continue to rise a next target would be 6687, before the trend turns down. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
XAO - last leg of counter trend rallyXAO is tracing minute wave v, which is the last leg that will complete intermediate wave C and also primary wave 2. The most probable target for the end of this move is at 6,202. After this price should decline during primary wave 3 down to new lows. If price crosses down 5,700, the odds are that primary wave 3 has already started. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
XAO - All Ordinaries - Bull Flag - Gold UpdateQuick update on XAO and the broader Aussie market.
It seems that insanity is the path of least resistance and the major index is set to target the 61.8% fib level, around the 6,200 level.
This measured move higher from the bull flag would als coincide with the 61.8% fib level.
The combined 'big 4 banks' are also signaling that a potential move higher is on the cards, with a measured breakout from a symmetrical triangle pitched at the 50% fib retracement.
I am also watching Aussie gold, looking for a pullback closer to the 2,500 price range.
Although in fairness, an entry even at these levels would still be quite a nice initial entry point on the yellow metal, with the vast global QE efforts to reinflate global equity markets set to lead to higher inflation (or even just perceived higher inflation).
Overall the Aussie equity markets look set to move higher, gold looks set to move slightly lower/ sideways and the real economy still looks battered and bruised. I am still on the lookout for the inevitable 2nd leg lower, but i am also keenly aware that throwing money at a short trade is not the best course of action in the face of global efforts to reflate the markets.
-TradingEdge