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ASX200 - Breakout! Target 10800After the v-shaped recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen a rally to the 7650 handle, where the market went sideways for the later 100-plus weeks. The accumulation stage is about to end as the 7650 resistance price was finally broken. The RSI is above 4o and moving above 60, which indicates bull market conditions. The composite index has shown a bullish divergence with price, also found in RSI. The Gann time count of 144 weeks from the prior high, is almost complete and should align will the Gann boxes count of 1 complete Octave. Furthermore, the 144-week bullish wedge formation forming in the chart. A calculation of a possible target is 10,000 points, using Fibonacci extensions, but more likely 10800 using Gann box techniques.
EIGHTCAP:ASX200Long
by TRADER-RI
AU200 remains mixed and volatile.ASX200 - 24h expiry Pivot resistance is at 7680. We expect a reversal in this move. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels. A move through 7625 will confirm the bearish momentum. The measured move target is 7550. We look to Sell at 7650 (stop at 7686) Our profit targets will be 7560 and 7540 Resistance: 7650 / 7675 / 7700 Support: 7600 / 7565 / 7550 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by OANDA
ASXAUD Australia 200 Bearish Opportunity - SMC FVG Order BlockASXAUD Australia 200 (ASX 200) Bearish Trade Setup - Potential Reversal at SMC FVG Order Block 🔍 Technical Analysis: The ASX 200 is approaching a critical zone on the chart known as the SMC (Smart Money Concept) FVG (Fresh Virginal Ground) Order Block. Historical price action suggests that this area has served as a strong resistance level in the past. Key technical indicators may be signaling potential bearish momentum. 📊 Trade Plan: Entry Point: Consider initiating a bearish position upon a clear rejection or bearish candlestick pattern within the SMC FVG Order Block. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent swing high to manage risk effectively. Take Profit: Target potential support levels or previous swing lows as profit objectives. 🚨 Risk Management: Implement proper risk management strategies, risking only a small percentage of your trading capital on this trade. Stay informed about economic events that might impact the ASX 200 and adjust your position accordingly. 📈 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, and it's essential to conduct your own analysis. Trade responsibly, using only the capital you can afford to lose. Set stop-loss orders and manage risk diligently. 👉 Note: Regularly monitor the charts for real-time price action and adjust your strategy based on market conditions. Happy Trading! 🌐💹
EASYMARKETS:ASXAUDShort
by MAAwan
ASX to continue in the upward move?ASX200 - 24h expiry There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. Although we remain bullish overall, a correction is possible with plenty of room to move lower without impacting the trend higher. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 7650 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 7725. We look to Buy at 7610 (stop at 7570) Our profit targets will be 7710 and 7735 Resistance: 7650 / 7700 / 7725 Support: 7625 / 7600 / 7575 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
The RBA to join the rate cut party in May?Aus Q4 CPI came in at 4.1% yoy, with the trimmed mean measure at 4.2% yoy – both were nicely below the economist's median forecast, and importantly below the RBA’s own forecasts of 4.5% for both metrics. We also saw the more timely monthly (December) CPI print coming in at 3.4%; a 90bp improvement – and just 40bp away from the 2-3% target band. Next week’s RBA meeting looms large, and the tone of the statement should reflect a bank seeing inflation moving towards target, yet they will make it clear this is no time for victory laps and more needs to be done. The RBA will be enthused by the fact core inflation is below the RBA’s cash rate – subsequently, we have a positive real cash rate for the first time since 2016 - this is a small but welcomed victory for Bullock and co. With both core and headline CPI nicely below the November Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, we question the possibility of tweaks to their projections for June and December 2024 CPI. These currently sit at 4% by June and 3.5% by December, so any revisions to these estimates could result in some solid movement in interest rate futures and by extension the AUD and AUS200. Aussie economic data has generally come in below market consensus expectations of late, so the pricing of expected RBA policy – through interest rate futures - has been part-validated in today’s CPI print. Looking at Aussie interest rate futures, the market prices no chance of a 25bp cut in either the February or March RBA meeting, and if anything, the RBA statements at these meetings need to lay the groundwork for cuts – although the tone of the guidance will be data-dependent. While much of the disinflation has been driven by tradables, a 25bp cut in May is a real possibility and the market prices this at 50% - so essentially a coin toss. We see two 25bp cuts priced by year-end. Eyes on Gov Bullock Gov Bullock speaks next Friday (09:30 AEDT) and while she speaks after the RBA meeting statement and SoMP (both on Tuesday 14:30 AEDT) her testimony will be scrutinized and will move interest rate pricing, and by extension the AUD. I think we’ll have a fair idea of the timeline for potential policy easing from here. Gov Bullock has a straightforward job – time rate cuts perfectly. Obviously, that’s easy to say but tough to do in principle but if we focus on the capital markets, we see little risk of an implied policy mistake and we see the ASX200 at all-time highs, with bank equity and consumer-sensitive stocks in rude health. AUD 1-month implied volatility resides at 12-month lows, while the Aussie housing market shows few concerns. I guess this is an issue with setting policy on quarterly core inflation -it is a slow-moving beast and clearly a lagging indicator the fact it is still 120bp from target feels like a hawkish Bullock may keep the peddle to the metal for now. The market will put more weight on the monthly CPI reads. I also consider the frequency of central bank speeches, and this is where the RBA, the ECB and the Fed differ in a big way – In Australia, we simply don’t have the plethora of central bankers that speak almost every day, and it's often a long time between drinks for the RBA speeches. This is quite refreshing, but in times like this it can be useful to know how each member stands, giving almost real-time commentary on policy. Anyhow, the markets speak out – the door is ajar for a cut in May but easing will be gradual relative to the Fed, ECB, and other G10 CBs. We also see the floor in the RBA cash rate priced at 3.5%, so loosely four 25bp cuts are priced to a ‘terminal’ level. The RBA won't try and keep pace with the Fed, they will work on their own merit and focus on their set of economics – either way, the trajectory for CPI suggests we will join the rate cut party and a ‘soft landing’ seems to be the more probable outcome, at least judging by the message from the markets.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by Pepperstone
AUS200 – 7632.8 in our sightsWhile the AUS200 revisits the all-time highs set in Aug 2021, the index absorbs a positive mix of sentiment towards global risk, as well as local factors, and many question if this time around we see the illustrious bullish break the bulls are positioned for. While global macro issues remain paramount, one catalyst to look towards is ASX200 1H24 earnings, with Amcor kicking the season into gear (6 Feb) and JBH (due 12 Feb) one that CFD traders will be keen to focus on. CSL (13 Feb) and CBA (14 Feb) report shortly after and both could influence sentiment with their outlooks. The Aussie banks are driving the market from an index points perspective, with materials also finding form. Importantly, we see the ASX200 bank index is flying high at present and until we see the bullish tape in the banks give way, index volatility will remain subdued, and traders will be skewed to buy weakness in the Aussie equity index.
PEPPERSTONE:AUS200Long
by Pepperstone
Is the ASX 200 about to roll over?Looking at the weekly chart, bulls may have something to worry about. The market is yet to even test 7500 let alone break above it, and each time it has tried (and failed) to do so, the ASX has fallen by double digits in percentage terms. A bearish engulfing candle formed in the first week of the year after once again faltering at those cycle highs. And if we're to see even just a 10% drop from the 2024 high it could, the index will find itself back beneath 7000. But if bears really get their way for another -16% drop, the ASX will be back around 6400. What could make that happen? Well, markets have been aggressively pricing in 5 - 7 Fed cuts this year which may not arrive. And if the wheels fall off the global economy to justify said cuts, that could also be bad for the stock market. So bulls may want to ask themselves if they want to be along at these levels, where the market is yet to every trade above it. As we could be in for a deeper pullback at the very least.
CITYINDEX:AUSTRALIA200CFDShort
by CityIndex
China Property Stimulus to Boost Aus200 IndexThe recent announcement of a stimulus package by the Chinese government to boost the property sector is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian stock market, particularly the Aus200 index. The stimulus package includes measures such as lower down payments for home purchases and tax breaks for developers. These measures are expected to increase demand for property in China, which will in turn benefit Australian companies that export goods and services to the Chinese market. In addition, the stimulus package is also expected to boost the Chinese economy, which is Australia's largest trading partner. A stronger Chinese economy will mean more demand for Australian goods and services, which will support corporate profits and earnings growth. As a result, the Aus200 index is expected to rise in the coming months. Of course, there are also some risks associated with the China property stimulus. If the stimulus is too successful, it could lead to an overheating of the Chinese economy and a resurgence of inflation. This would be negative for Australian companies that export to China, as it would make their goods and services less competitive. However, at this stage, it appears that the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards. Overall, the China property stimulus is a positive development for the Australian stock market. The stimulus is expected to boost demand for Australian goods and services, support corporate profits and earnings growth, and lift the Aus200 index.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by SabahEquityResearch
1
ASX to continue in the upward move?AU200AUD - 24h expiry Buying pressure from 7494 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. We are trading at oversold extremes. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. We look for a temporary move lower. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 7510 level. We look to Buy at 7510 (stop at 7478) Our profit targets will be 7590 and 7715 Resistance: 7715 / 7825 / 7985 Support: 7340 / 7210 / 7120 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
expect a pullbackWars are inflationary. so expect interest rates to keep rising in 2024 (even tho they are negative in real terms) higher rates means lower share prices. lets see how the central planners react to the war and the goal is always to inflate asset prices but the problem now is the inflation can not be hidden by cheap asian labour anymore. The rise of Asia means there is now a wealthy middle class who are no longer willing to slave away making cheap throw away goods for the regime. buy more BBOZ....
ASX:XJOShort
by RogueCleaner
ASX to find buyers at market?ASX200 - 24h expiry We are trading at overbought extremes. A Doji style candle has been posted from the base. Our overall sentiment remains bullish looking for higher levels. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. We look to Buy at 7578 (stop at 7528) Our profit targets will be 7698 and 7720 Resistance: 7715 / 7825 / 7985 Support: 7505 / 7340 / 7210 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA