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PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS SAPIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS SAPIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS SA

PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS SA

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TPEIR trade ideas

Jefferies: Maintains "Buy" Rating with a €6.25 Target PriceJefferies: Piraeus' Acquisition of National Insurance Boosts Profitability and Capital Position – Maintains "Buy" Rating with a €6.25 Target Price The acquisition of 90% of National Insurance by Piraeus Bank for €540 million is a highly strategic move that, according to Jefferies' analysis, will significantly enhance the bank's profitability and overall financial position. A Deal That Strengthens Piraeus – “Buy” Rating Maintained Jefferies estimates that the National Insurance acquisition diversifies Piraeus' revenue streams and strengthens its fee income sector, bringing it closer to leading European banking institutions. The investment firm maintains its “buy” rating for Piraeus Bank, setting a €6.25 price target, confirming its confidence in the bank’s prospects following this strategic move. Profitability & Return on Equity Boost This transaction is expected to increase earnings per share (EPS) by approximately 5%, while return on tangible book value (RoaTBV) is projected to rise by 100 basis points (bp). At the same time, Piraeus continues to target a cost-to-core-income ratio of around 35% for the 2025-2027 period, maintaining strong operational efficiency. Positive Capital Impact – Danish Compromise Implementation The acquisition will impact Piraeus’ total capital ratio by 150 basis points, reducing it from 20% to over 18.5% in 2025. However, the bank plans to apply the Danish Compromise, which, if implemented, would reduce the impact by 50 basis points, keeping the net effect at 100 basis points. Importantly, the CET1 ratio is expected to remain above 13% throughout the 2025-2027 business plan, while the dividend distribution policy at 50% of profits remains unchanged. National Insurance: A Leading Player in the Greek Market National Insurance is the top insurance company in Greece, with 15.8% growth in gross written premiums (GWP) in 2024, surpassing the market average of 8.7%. The company is expected to maintain a 14.6% market share in 2024, with 17% in life insurance and 11% in general insurance. With total assets of €4 billion and equity of €400 million, National Insurance reported normalized net earnings of €100 million in 2023. Its extensive network of corporate and affiliated insurance agencies generates a significant portion of its revenue. Strong Growth in the Bancassurance Market Piraeus Bank expects the Greek insurance market to continue expanding, with gross written premiums rising to €7 billion from €5.5 billion by the end of 2024. In Bancassurance, a key strategic sector for Piraeus, the market size is projected to grow from €1.4 billion to €2 billion, highlighting the increasing significance of bank-led insurance services in Greece.
ATHEX:TPEIRLong
by kgougakis
Piraeus Financial Holdings SA Poised for a Potential Rebound -TAPiraeus Financial Holdings SA's recent price movements suggest the stock might be preparing for a positive turnaround, offering an intriguing opportunity for investors. Currently trading around €3.62, the stock finds itself at a critical support level that could act as a strong base for a potential rally. One of the key indicators suggesting a possible rebound is the stock's position relative to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Holding above this long-term trend line implies that the broader trend remains bullish, despite recent short-term volatility. Additionally, the shorter-term EMAs are showing signs of convergence, often a precursor to a breakout. Volume analysis also paints a promising picture. Recent downtrends have been accompanied by high trading volumes, a sign that suggests strong buyer interest. This accumulation phase could signal that investors are taking advantage of lower prices, setting the stage for an upward movement. Technical indicators further support this optimistic view. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a potential bullish crossover, hinting at a momentum shift. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 38, nearing oversold territory. A bounce from this level could indicate that selling pressure is fading, paving the way for buyers to step in. Fibonacci retracement levels also show that the stock is navigating key support zones. A rebound from current levels could target the 0.618 and 0.5 retracement levels, providing a clear path to recovery if momentum shifts. Furthermore, pivot points highlight that a move above €3.624 could aim for resistance at €3.987, indicating a potential reversal pattern. Overall, Piraeus Financial Holdings SA seems to be on the cusp of a potential upswing. If current support levels hold and buying interest continues to grow, a bullish shift may be imminent, offering investors a favorable risk-reward scenario in the coming days. Support Levels: The stock is currently at a critical support level around €3.62. If this support holds, it could act as a strong base for a potential rebound. There's a significant Fibonacci support level at the 0.786 retracement level around €3.769, indicating that this price region is a crucial area of interest for buyers. Moving Averages: The stock is still above the 200-day EMA, a strong indication that the long-term trend remains positive. Historically, holding above the 200-day EMA suggests that the overall trend has room to move higher. The convergence of the shorter-term EMAs (20, 50, 100) indicates that a consolidation phase might be ending, potentially leading to a breakout as market forces decide on the next direction. Volume Analysis: There have been a few spikes in volume during downward movements, indicating strong interest from buyers. High volume in this context often means that there is accumulation happening, a positive sign of potential price recovery. MACD Indicator: Although the MACD line is currently below the signal line, it's nearing a potential crossover. This suggests that momentum may soon shift from bearish to bullish, which could spark a rally. A bullish crossover would reinforce the idea that the downtrend might be losing steam, with buyers ready to step in. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 38, suggesting that the stock is nearing oversold territory. This is often an indicator that a price reversal is on the horizon, providing a good buying opportunity for traders. Fibonacci Levels: The current price action is trading within important Fibonacci retracement levels, with the potential to move back towards the 0.618 and 0.5 levels if support holds. These levels could act as targets if the stock begins to move upwards, indicating that there's a strong base for recovery. Pivot Points: The stock is close to S2 (€3.624), and if it finds support here, a movement towards the pivot point or even R1 (€3.987) could be feasible. This would represent a bullish reversal pattern if confirmed by upcoming candles. Positive Outlook Summary: If the current support levels hold and there's a bullish crossover in the MACD, along with a bounce from the oversold RSI, there’s a strong chance that the stock may resume its upward trend. Traders could look for confirmation with increased buying volume or a close above the recent resistance levels to affirm a positive shift in market sentiment.
ATHEX:TPEIRLong
by kgougakis