EURAUD โ Trendline Holds, Bearish Setup Below 1.7626EURAUD Trend: EURAUD pair remains in a strong downtrend, marked by consistent lower highs and a descending trendline.
Resistance: 1.7626 has been retested and rejected, confirming it as a short-term ceiling.
Structure: The latest rejection from both horizontal resistance and the trendline confirms bearish intent.
๐ฝ Bearish Targets:
1.7254 โ minor support and near-term target
1.7120 โ stronger support zone
1.7060 โ previous low and potential extended target
A clear break below 1.7400 could confirm continuation of the trend toward those levels.
Fundamental Overview:
๐ป EUR Weakness:
The Eurozone is slowing, particularly in Germany and France.
ECB remains cautious; recent comments show concern about tight financial conditions and sticky inflation.
Political uncertainties and mixed data prints are adding pressure.
๐ข AUD Support:
The RBA remains firm with hawkish language, holding rates while global peers lean dovish.
Commodities remain stable, and Australia benefits from demand out of Asia.
Domestic data (jobs and retail) shows surprising resilience.
Summary:
Bias: Bearish below 1.7626
Break Trigger: 1.7400
Target Range: 1.7250 โ 1.7060
Fundamentals: Favor AUD on stronger economic footing and RBA policy tone
๐ EURAUD looks ready for another leg lower unless we see a breakout above 1.7630 with conviction.
AUDEUR trade ideas
EURAUD Ready to Launch? Institutions Positioning for a Big Move!๐ 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders)
EUR:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 โ Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts).
Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) โ Hedging against potential EUR strength.
Open interest change: +8,343 contracts โ Higher market participation, active environment.
AUD:
Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 โ Strong bearish sentiment on AUD.
Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) โ Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas.
Open interest down (-2,607) โ Possible position unwinding or rollover.
๐ COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point.
๐ 2. SEASONALITY
EUR in May:
Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%.
Only the 2y curve shows strength (โ+0.0194).
AUD in May:
Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) โ sign of recent improvement.
๐ Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience.
๐ก 3. SENTIMENT
Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD.
Average short entry: 1.7002, current price โ 1.7491 โ many are in drawdown.
High short congestion above 1.74 โ Potential short squeeze setup.
๐ Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts.
๐ง 4. PRICE ACTION
Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200โ1.7350.
Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum.
Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76โ1.77, targeting the 1.79โ1.80 zone.
RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions.
๐ Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics.
๐ STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup)
๐ฏ Target: 1.7700 โ 1.7920
๐ก๏ธ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone)
โ ๏ธ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
EURAUD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view the price will fall to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
EUR-AUD Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD made a retest
Of the key horizontal
Resistance level of 1.7640
From where we are already
Seeing a bearish pullback so
As we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further
Bearish move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
euraud buy signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EUR_AUD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
โ
EUR_AUD price grew again
To retest the resistance of 1.7640
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish move down
SHORT๐ฅ
โ
Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!โ
โจโจ
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
PLAN YOUR TRADES - WHY and HOW I plan to sell EURAUD!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
EURAUD 3MONTHS CHARTEUR/AUD Bond Yield, Interest Rate Differential, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 25โ30, 2025)
Current 10-Year Bond Yields
Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: 4.48% (as of May 19โ21, 2025) , rising slightly due to RBA rate cuts and global uncertainty.
Eurozone 10-Year Bond Yield: 3.17% (as of May 23, 2025) , reflecting moderate inflation and cautious ECB policy.
Interest Rate Differential (IRD)
The yield spread between Australian and Eurozone 10-year bonds is:4.48(AUDโ3.17(EUR)=+1.31%
4.48% (AUD)โ3.17% (EUR)=+1.31%
This differential favors the Australian dollar, creating a carry trade opportunity.
Carry Trade Advantage
Investors can borrow EUR at lower Eurozone rates and invest in higher-yielding AUD assets, earning the 1.31% yield spread as profit.
The strategy is supported by Australiaโs elevated bond yields despite recent RBA rate cuts, driven by global demand for commodity-linked currencies and resilient growth.
Key Economic Data (May 25โ30, 2025)
Date Region Event Impact on Yields
May 25 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes Neutral (rate cut already priced in)
May 28 EUR Eurozone GDP Growth (Q1) Potential downside risk to EUR yields if growth disappoints
May 29 AUD Australia Private Capital Expenditure Could support AUD yields if spending rises
Summary Table
Metric Australia (AUD) Eurozone (EUR)
10-Year Bond Yield 4.48% 3.17%
Interest Rate Differential +1.31% (AUD over EUR) โ
Carry Trade Appeal Favorable for long AUD/EUR โ
Conclusion
The 1.31% yield advantage for AUD over EUR supports a long AUD/EUR carry trade strategy. However, traders should monitor:
RBA policy: Further rate cuts could narrow the yield spread.
Eurozone growth data: Weak GDP figures may pressure EUR yields lower, widening the differential.
Commodity prices: AUD remains sensitive to iron ore and coal price fluctuations.
While the carry trade offers potential gains, volatility from macroeconomic data and shifts in risk sentiment could impact returns.
#EURAUD #AUDEUR
EUR/AUD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
EUR/AUD pair is in the uptrend because previous weekโs candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 8H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 1.723 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โ
LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEASโ
Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/AUD has bounced off the pivot, which is a pullback support, and could rise to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.75099
1st Support: 1.73653
1st Resistance: 1.77533
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/AUD 8H Analysis - Bullish Breakout Brewing๐ Structure Shift
Price has broken out of a descending wedge, hinting at a bullish reversal after a prolonged downtrend. This pattern often signals a liquidity sweep followed by a rally โ which aligns with current market behavior.
๐ Key Confluences
Bullish Liquidity Trendline respected with multiple touches and strong rejection candles.
Medium Demand Zone has been tested and held, showing signs of institutional accumulation.
71% Fibonacci Retracement from the most recent leg has been tagged and respected โ prime zone for reversals.
Break above a medium resistance level now flipping into support.
๐ Volume Analysis
Spike in buying volume near the 71% fib and demand zone โ another tick for bullish strength.
๐ Buy-Side Liquidity Above
Clean equal highs and unmitigated zones above. Market likely targeting these areas next.
๐ Bias: Strong Buy
As long as price holds above the broken wedge and the bullish trendline, EUR/AUD has strong potential to rally toward the buy-side liquidity zone marked at the top.
๐ฏ Next Target:
Liquidity sweep zone above highs
Then into the upper supply zone for reaction or reversal
EURAUD to find buyers at previous resistance?EURAUD - 24H expiry
The primary trend remains bullish.
The selloff has posted an exhaustion count on the daily chart.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Price action looks to be forming a bottom.
Bespoke support is located at 1.7500.
We look to Buy at 1.7500 (stop at 1.7450)
Our profit targets will be 1.7700 and 1.7730
Resistance: 1.7630 / 1.7680 / 1.7725
Support: 1.7520 / 1.7450 / 1.7400
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (โOAPโ) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
EURAUD INTRADAY retest of resistance at 1.7645Trend: Bearish
Current Move: Oversold bounce toward resistance
Key Resistance: 1.7645 โ Prior consolidation zone
Key Supports:
1.7400 โ Immediate support
1.7273 โ Secondary support
1.7120 โ Longer-term target
Scenario 1 โ Bearish Continuation:
If price fails to break above 1.7645 and shows rejection (e.g. bearish candlestick pattern), expect a move lower toward 1.7400, and potentially 1.7273 and 1.7120 over time.
Scenario 2 โ Bullish Reversal:
If price breaks and closes above 1.7645 on the daily chart, it would invalidate the bearish view and open up upside targets at 1.7770, 1.7885, and 1.8010.
Conclusion:
EURAUD remains bearish below 1.7645. A rejection at that level favors downside continuation. A daily close above 1.7645 would shift sentiment toward a bullish reversal. Monitor price action closely at this key level.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
euraud buy signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
EUR/AUD H4 AnalysisSince price made a high of circa 1.8550 last month, there has been a steady decline for EUR/AUD.
The most recent price action has been corrective in nature, and on Friday we saw a break and close below the counter trendline with the penultimate H4 candle of the day forming the first close and the last H4 candle forming a lower low and lower close.
This may possibly indicate the next impulse of selling.
If you agree, look for a sell setup that meets your strategy rules.
Always trade with a profitable strategy and good risk management.
EURAUD โ Bullish Breakout from Inverse Head & Shoulders + Target๐ Pattern Insight: Inverse Head & Shoulders โ A Powerful Reversal Formation
On the weekly timeframe, EURAUD has completed and broken out of a textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) pattern โ a highly regarded bullish reversal setup that often signals the end of a downtrend and the beginning of a sustainable uptrend.
Letโs break it down:
Left Shoulder: Formed in mid-2021 after a strong downtrend, price found support and rebounded, forming the initial shoulder low.
Head: A lower low was established around early 2022, marking the deepest point of the pattern. This represents the last dominant push by sellers before exhaustion.
Right Shoulder: In late 2022 to early 2023, bulls stepped in earlier than before, establishing a higher low โ a strong sign of decreasing bearish momentum and accumulation.
Neckline : A descending resistance trendline connecting the peaks between the shoulders and the head. Once broken, it confirms the IHS breakout and trend reversal.
This multi-year formation reflects a major psychological shift: sellers lost control at the head, and buyers gradually regained dominance at the right shoulder, eventually breaking resistance.
๐ Retest in Progress โ High Probability Entry Zone
Post-breakout, price action has pulled back for a technical retest of the neckline and curve line support โ a dynamic trendline representing growing bullish momentum. This retest is essential for validating the breakout and building the base for a continuation rally.
The convergence of support zones (neckline + curve line) around the 1.70โ1.72 area provides a strong confluence zone where buyers may step in again. This is often viewed as a second-chance entry for traders who missed the breakout.
๐ฏ Measured Target Projection & Resistance Levels
The IHS pattern gives us a clear measured move:
Measured Move Target: Distance from the head to neckline (~2,800+ pips) projected from the breakout point.
Target Zone: 1.92 โ 1.95, just above the major resistance zone.
Resistance Zone: 1.85 โ 1.87 is a historically significant supply area and may act as interim resistance.
Break and close above the resistance zone would further validate the bullish trajectory and open the door for higher targets.
๐ Risk Management โ Defined Parameters
To manage risk effectively, consider:
Stop Loss: Below the recent retest low and curve line support, ideally placed at 1.63848, protecting against a false breakout.
Entry Idea: If bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, higher low on lower timeframe) appears at retest zone, initiate a long position.
Risk-to-Reward (RR): Targeting 1.92 from an entry around 1.72 offers a 4:1 RR or better โ highly attractive for swing and position traders.
๐ง Psychological and Structural Significance
This pattern is not just technical โ it represents behavioral change in the market:
The head shows capitulation โ a final wave of bearish pressure.
The right shoulder indicates growing confidence in bulls and waning selling interest.
The neckline breakout is where sentiment flips โ traders recognize the change and enter long positions, fueling the breakout.
The current retest phase is crucial. Many professional traders wait for this moment to confirm that support holds before fully committing.
๐ Final Thoughts & Strategy
Trend has shifted bullish on the weekly chart after years of consolidation and decline.
Weโre seeing a classic breakoutโretestโcontinuation setup.
A breakout above 1.85 would likely trigger momentum traders and institutions, driving price swiftly toward the 1.92โ1.95 range.
Invalidation: Break below 1.63848 would invalidate the pattern and shift sentiment back to neutral or bearish.
๐ Trade Plan Summary:
Pattern: Inverse Head & Shoulders (weekly)
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: 1.70 โ 1.73 (retest area)
Target: 1.92+
Stop Loss: Below 1.63848
Risk Level: Medium (weekly setup, but long-term play)
#003 Investment Opportunity LONG EUR/AUD
The EUR/AUD pair is showing an interesting technical-macro context that suggests a possible bullish development in the next sessions. The analysis conducted integrates multi-timeframe elements, advanced indicators, institutional positioning and macroeconomic context, concluding in a coherent view in favor of a long position.
๐ Multi-timeframe technical analysis (8H, D, W)
On 8H and daily timeframes, EUR/AUD has broken the descending bearish trendline and is building a new structure of higher lows above the long-term moving average. The weekly chart shows a consolidation above the static support of 1.7400, with candles that are starting to configure potential reversals.
๐ Main technical indicators
WaveTrend and RSI are bullish but not overbought, offering room for further extensions.
The Stochastic has just crossed upwards in the restart zone, confirming the market's intention to reverse the previous bearish push.
๐ Harmonic patterns and cyclical
We are in the initial phase of a new bullish cycle. The completion of a possible "inverse Gartley" pattern coincides with the currently tested technical support levels. The short-term cyclical shows a clear end of the previous bearish cycle.
๐งฑ Key supports and resistances
The price has bounced strongly from the dynamic support represented by the 200-hour moving average and the static support in the 1.7420 area. The immediate target is the structural resistance at 1.7950, already tested in the past as a reaction point.
๐ Volumes and volume profile
The volume profile highlights a strong accumulation in the area between 1.7450 and 1.7550. No excess visible in the distribution, which suggests a still โlightโ movement with potential for expansion.
๐ฏ Candlestick patterns and price action
The last 8H candle is a bullish engulfing, closed above the moving average and with increasing volumes. The three previous candles show a compression and accumulation pattern.
๐ Correlations and geometries
The divergence with AUD/USD (which appears weak) and the inverse correlation with EUR/JPY in strengthening give further strength to the bullish picture. Historical fractals also show symmetries that have occurred in similar macro contexts.
๐ Pattern Statistics
Similar patterns on EUR/AUD โ post trendline breakout with bullish structure on 8H โ have shown a positive outcome in 81% of cases on historical samples greater than 100.
๐ Retail Positioning
Current sentiment shows retail heavily positioned short, creating a potential contrarian effect in favor of buyers.
๐ฆ Institutional Positioning (COT)
COT data signals an increase in net long positions on the euro and a reduction on AUD, compatible with a directional reversal.
๐งฎ Fundamental Macroeconomic Analysis
EUR supported by expectations of monetary stabilization by the ECB, without new imminent tightening.
AUD penalized by weak exports and softer tones from the RBA.
Macro differential slightly in favor of EUR.
๐ Intermarket Relative Strength
EUR shows increasing strength against commodity currencies, including AUD. This reinforces the bullish thesis, also confirmed by the capital inflows on the euro.
๐ฐ Real Sentiment and Newsflow
The latest macro news and institutional reports confirm a cautious positioning on the AUD. No imminent driver justifies a structural strengthening of the Australian currency.
๐ช Implied and Historical Volatility
Volatility is growing, but still within optimal historical ranges for sustained directional movements. The current ATR is above the average of the last 10 years, a favorable condition for breakouts.
๐ Macro Event Risk
No disruptive event expected in the next 48 hours. The economic calendar is neutral and does not threaten the technical structure in formation.
๐ Minimum Volatility Threshold
The current range and ATR exceed the minimum values โโof statistical validity, ensuring that the movement is not a false compression breakout.
EURAUD (BOS 1H + DEMAND + OTE)Hello traders!
Description: Now we already in 0,5 of fib level, price want to close imb and mitigate demand + 705 OTE in case BOS 1H.
Entry: Confirmation on LTF in POI
Target: New HH
P.S: check also previous idea.
Have a profitable day and don't forget to subscribe for more updates!
If you like this idea drop a like, leave a comment.