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AUDJPY trade ideas

AUDJPY Technical Breakout - Targeting 97.400 Next?TRADENATION:AUDJPY has recently broken decisively above a key resistance zone that had previously capped price for several months. This breakout was preceded by a period of compression and range-bound price action, where bullish momentum steadily built up, indicated by higher lows pressing against the resistance level. This type of structure typically leads to an explosive breakout, which we are now seeing unfold. After the breakout, price came back for a clean retest of the broken resistance zone, which has now flipped into support. The retest held firmly, suggesting strong buyer interest at this level and confirming the validity of the breakout. With this structure in place, the bullish momentum is likely to extend further toward the next target zone around 97.400, provided price remains above the current support. As long as the price holds above the retested zone, the bullish outlook remains intact. A breakdown back below this area, however, would be a warning sign and could open the door to a deeper pullback. Remember, always wait for confirmation before entering trades, and maintain disciplined risk management.
Long
by TrendDiva
33
AUDJPY Bullish Channel Still Intact, Eyeing Breakout Above 95.00AUDJPY continues to respect its ascending channel, with the current bounce occurring right at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and lower trendline support. The structure supports further upside as long as price holds above the 94.00–93.80 zone, with targets set toward 94.77 and 95.36, potentially extending to 95.63 highs. 🧠 Fundamentals: AUD Strength Drivers: RBA remains relatively hawkish vs other G10 banks. Australia's data this week (retail sales, NAB confidence) were mixed, but no rate cut pricing in the near term supports AUD. Iron ore demand showing resilience despite Chinese slowdown concerns. JPY Weakness Drivers: BoJ remains ultra-dovish. No action expected in July. Japan’s inflation remains tame; the yield gap with other majors keeps widening. Risk-on sentiment reduces demand for safe-havens like JPY. 🔍 Technical Structure: Strong upward channel since early June remains valid. Current pullback held the 61.8% Fib retracement of the June-July leg. Bullish engulfing near support confirms entry. Immediate resistance at 94.77 → 95.36 → potential breakout to 95.63. Invalid if price closes below 93.80 (channel break). ⚠️ Risk Factors: Risk-off shift (e.g., geopolitical escalation or U.S. CPI surprise) may boost JPY. China growth fears can weigh on AUD. A sudden dovish shift from the RBA would invalidate bullish fundamentals. 🔁 Leader/Lagger Dynamics: AUDJPY typically leads other yen crosses (e.g., NZDJPY, CADJPY) during risk-on moves. It’s also a barometer for broader risk sentiment, often following moves in equity indices like US500 or commodity-linked assets. ✅ Trade Bias: Bullish TP1: 94.77 TP2: 95.36 TP3 (aggressive): 95.63 SL: Below 93.80 Event to Watch: China data this week + U.S. CPI (Jul 11) 📌 Watch for a strong bullish daily candle above 94.77 for continuation confirmation. Stay nimble around key global risk events.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
AUDJPY – Liquidity Trap Short Setup Box framed between 95.961–94.719, with layered buyside liquidity swept at 95.859 and 95.961. Price printed a bearish body below structural shift (-CISD), confirming trap activation. Entry executed post-shift → targeting sellside liquidity at 95.521, with extended draw potential toward 94.719. Liquidation heatmap shows dim clusters above, bright gold clusters below = strong directional bias. Narrative: smart money sweep complete → trap symmetry locked → discount magnet engaged. 📉🎯
Short
by liambillo35
1
AUDJPY Ready To "Drop A Shoulder"? Multi-Timeframe May Help!OANDA:AUDJPY is beginning to form a very convincingly strong Reversal Pattern, the Head & Shoulders! Starting with the Daily Chart we can see that Price is Forming a Doji Candle just after trying to Breakout of a Major Resistance Zone created from the Highs of March 18th and if Price is unable to close above this level, this strengthens the Bearish and Reversal Bias. Now the 4 Hr Chart shows both the "First Shoulder" or Previous Higher High that was surpassed by the "Head" which is the New Higher High, has formed quite quickly with a slightly Ascending "Neckline" or Support Line where Bulls were able to make their Last Stand. With a Reversal Pattern, you want to see a Change in Trend, in this case, would be a Lower High then that of the Higher High or "Head" @ 96.204. *If Bulls are able to Push Price above the "Left Shoulder" or Previous Higher High @ 95.952, this will Invalidate the Head & Shoulders Set-up! **If Bulls are unable to Break Above 95.952 and Price is pushed back down to the Confirmation or "Neckline" for a 3rd time, this Confirms the Head & Shoulders Set-up!! Based on the Distance between the Head and Neckline, we can project a potential drop down to the next Support Level as a Price Target @ 95.00 once: 1) Pattern is Confirmed 2) Breakout is Validated
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
2
RBA in focus: AUD JPY to continue up? It's a week bereft of major US data. In the main it'll be up to the 'risk environment' to determine proceedings (which currently means tariff headlines). But we do have the RBA and RBNZ rate decisions to potentially create opportunities. First up, during Tuesday's Asian session is the RBA, a central bank with a preference for high interest rates (hawkish). *Reminder: (risk environment aside) high interest rates 'generally' equals strong currency. Analyst concencious is for a 0.25bp cut. I can envision two scenarios: A rate cut with 'hawkish narrative' (non or limited cuts on the horizon). No rate cut (hold), with data dependent forward guidance. Both scenarios 'should' be AUD positive. Possibly creating another AUD JPY long trade. Of course, especially after Friday's NFP, we know that anything can happen and the RBA could deliver a 'dovish cut'. But considering inflation is still relatively high in Australia, I would be surprised with that outcome. And, of course, a lot depends on the overall 'risk environment'. We could very well have 200% tariffs across the board in 12 hours time. And I would only long the AUD in a 'positive risk environment'. *Side note: With the S&P 'near all time highs', it's only natural that it could pull back a little. So, I'm more focused on the actual narrative at the moment rather than correlations. **Second side note: I'm slowly starting to revisit the ' buy / sell stop anticipation trade'. And arguably, an 'AUD long' pre-rate decision is viable. (Whereby you place an 'AUD long' stop order pre event, if it's a dovish outcome the order doesn't trigger). It's not something I endorse in a 'live account' but it's a strategy worth considering. Particularly as I suspect 'red flag' US releases could become important moving forward. Ultimately, no matter the type of trade you take, it's very important to remember that 50% will hit profit and 50% will stop out. That's why we use a higher risk/ reward per trade.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
1
AUD/JPY: Rejection at Key ResistanceThis is a high-conviction short setup on AUD/JPY based on a powerful rejection pattern that has formed on the 4-hour chart. As you can see, the price spiked into the critical resistance zone between 95.00 and 95.55 but was immediately and forcefully rejected, leaving behind a long "Exhaustion Spike." This is a classic sign of buyer exhaustion and seller dominance. It tells us that despite the recent rally, there is significant supply waiting at these higher levels. This price action provides a clear opportunity to short the pair in anticipation of a significant move down. 🏦 Fundamental Analysis The fundamental backdrop provides a strong tailwind for this trade, with two key drivers: 1️⃣ Central Bank Divergence: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in an easing cycle, having recently cut rates to 3.85% with more cuts expected. In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is on a path of normalization, having already raised its rate to 0.50%. This divergence in monetary policy is structurally bearish for AUD/JPY. 2️⃣ Imminent Catalysts: This week is packed with event risk that is skewed to the downside for this pair. We have the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday, July 8th , and the U.S. tariff deadline on Wednesday, July 9th . A dovish RBA or a "risk-off" move from the tariff news would likely accelerate the decline in AUD (a risk currency) and strengthen the JPY (a safe-haven currency). 📊 Technical Analysis The price action on the chart confirms the bearish bias: 1️⃣ 4-Hour Rejection: The "Exhaustion Spike" at the 95.00 - 95.55 supply zone is the primary signal. It shows a clear failure by buyers and a strong takeover by sellers at a key level. 2️⃣ Long-Term Trend: On the daily chart, the price is trading below the critical 200-day moving average , confirming the long-term trend remains bearish. 3️⃣ Waning Momentum: There is a clear bearish divergence on the daily RSI. The price made a higher high, but the momentum indicator made a lower high, signaling that the rally is internally weak and losing steam. 📋 Trading Setup This is a swing trade designed to capture a significant correction with a simple "set and forget" plan. 📉 Direction: SHORT / SELL 👉 Entry: Sell Limit @ 94.85 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 95.60 🎯 Take Profit: 91.10 💡 Rationale: The entry is placed strategically to capitalize on a potential retest of the rejection area. The stop loss is placed safely above the rejection wick and the major resistance zone. The take profit targets the major structural support from the May 2025 lows, offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
1
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUD-JPY Bullish Breakout! Buy! Hello,Traders! AUD-JPY is trading in a Strong uptrend and the pair Made a bullish breakout of The key horizontal level Of 95.650 which is now a Support and the breakout Is confirmed so we are bullish Biased and we will be expecting A further bullish move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D8 W28 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 D8 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | Y25💼 AUDJPY LONG & SHORT – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | Y25 📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT AUD JPY is currently reaching for a key higher time frame supply zone, looking for price action to show weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence. 🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝 ✅ Daily Order Block (OB) Looking for Strong reaction and early signs of distribution. ✅ 4H Order Block Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition. ✅ 1H Order Block 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. 🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT 📌 The structure is clear. The confluences are stacked. Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY continues vigorously to five-month highsThe yen has declined in most of its widely traded pairs in recent days as trade tension between the USA and Japan escalated again. JPY’s appeal as a haven appears to be lower compared to the situation early last quarter. Meanwhile the RBA unexpectedly held its cash rate on 8 July. Although the BoJ is fairly likely to hike to 0.75% at the end of July, it seems unlikely the differential in rates for AUDJPY will go below 2% for the foreseeable future. Much like AUDUSD, volume and ATR have declined significantly here and the stochastic signals overbought, but the shape of the chart is quite different and the latest high was accompanied by a significant uptick in momentum. The 50% weekly Fibonacci retracement around ¥97.70 is an obvious possible resistance. A sustained move lower seems less favourable based on the current situation of both fundamentals and the chart. The 38.2% Fibo slightly below ¥95 might now flip to being an area of support. However, there’s a significant amount of important data for AUDJPY coming out in the next few days: Australian consumer confidence on 15 July, then Japanese balance of trade and inflation on 17 and 18 July respectively. Surprising results might significantly change the technical picture. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25AUDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q3 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly Order Block Identified ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅15' Order block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUDJPY – Waiting for the Long SetupThe price is currently in a corrective move, and as always, we’ve already marked our key level. 📍 We’re patiently waiting for price to reach our support zone. If a valid buy signal appears, we’ll take the long position according to our trading plan. ❌ What if the level breaks? No worries. We don’t predict — we follow the market. We’ll wait for a clean pullback and enter short if confirmed. 🎯 Our job isn’t to predict where price will go, our job is to manage risk and stay aligned with the market. Price can do anything — we’re ready for every scenario.
Long
by ForexCSP
AUDJPY - let's do it again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per our last AUDJPY analysis (attached on the chart), it rejected the first blue circle zone and surged in a parabolic manner. 📈AUDJPY is currently retesting the intersection of the blue trendline and red support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDJPY is around the latest blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TheSignalyst
8
AUD/JPY# AUD/JPY: Two High-Probability Bearish Setups 🎯 ## Overview AUD/JPY continues to respect its macro downtrend structure, offering two compelling bearish opportunities as price approaches critical resistance levels. Currently trading at 94.398, the pair sits at an inflection point between key support and resistance zones. --- ## 📊 Setup 1: Resistance Zone Rejection (Primary) ### Key Level: 95.289 (Major Resistance) This level has proven its significance multiple times: - ✅ Strong resistance throughout recent months - ✅ Clear seller dominance at this zone - ✅ Confluence with descending channel structure ### Entry Strategy: 1. **Wait** for price to approach 95.289 2. **Identify** bearish rejection patterns: - Pin bars / Shooting stars - Bearish engulfing candles - Multiple wick rejections 3. **Enter** short on confirmed rejection 4. **Stop Loss**: 95.50-95.60 (above resistance) 5. **Targets**: - TP1: 93.240 (1:2 RR) - TP2: 92.271 (1:3.5 RR) --- ## 📊 Setup 2: Rising Wedge Breakdown (Secondary) ### Pattern Recognition: A textbook rising wedge has formed since the May lows - a bearish reversal pattern within the larger downtrend context. ### Entry Strategy: 1. **Monitor** the lower wedge trendline 2. **Wait** for decisive breakdown with volume 3. **Enter** short on retest of broken support 4. **Stop Loss**: Above recent swing high 5. **Target**: 93.240 support zone --- ## 📈 Market Structure Analysis ### Macro Trend: BEARISH 📉 - Consistent lower highs and lower lows from 102+ levels - Currently in corrective bounce phase - Respecting descending channel boundaries ### Current Position: Price trapped between: - **Resistance**: 95.289 - **Support**: 93.240 - **Deep Support**: 92.271 --- ## ⚠️ Risk Management **Patience is key!** Current price offers poor risk/reward. Wait for: 1. **Scenario A**: Test of 95.289 resistance → Short opportunity 2. **Scenario B**: Break below wedge support → Short opportunity 3. **Scenario C**: Break above 95.289 → Invalidation, stay flat ### Position Sizing: - Risk per trade: 1-2% of account - Adjust position size based on stop distance --- ## 🎯 Trade Summary **Bias**: BEARISH 🐻 **Preferred Setup**: Resistance rejection at 95.289 **Risk/Reward**: Minimum 1:2 **Timeframe**: Daily --- *Remember: The best trades come to those who wait. Let price come to your levels, don't chase!* **What's your view? Drop a comment below! 👇** *Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.* ---
Short
by ThulaniMtetwa