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AUDJPY trade ideas

AUD/JPY: Rejection at Key ResistanceThis is a high-conviction short setup on AUD/JPY based on a powerful rejection pattern that has formed on the 4-hour chart. As you can see, the price spiked into the critical resistance zone between 95.00 and 95.55 but was immediately and forcefully rejected, leaving behind a long "Exhaustion Spike." This is a classic sign of buyer exhaustion and seller dominance. It tells us that despite the recent rally, there is significant supply waiting at these higher levels. This price action provides a clear opportunity to short the pair in anticipation of a significant move down. 🏦 Fundamental Analysis The fundamental backdrop provides a strong tailwind for this trade, with two key drivers: 1️⃣ Central Bank Divergence: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is in an easing cycle, having recently cut rates to 3.85% with more cuts expected. In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is on a path of normalization, having already raised its rate to 0.50%. This divergence in monetary policy is structurally bearish for AUD/JPY. 2️⃣ Imminent Catalysts: This week is packed with event risk that is skewed to the downside for this pair. We have the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday, July 8th , and the U.S. tariff deadline on Wednesday, July 9th . A dovish RBA or a "risk-off" move from the tariff news would likely accelerate the decline in AUD (a risk currency) and strengthen the JPY (a safe-haven currency). 📊 Technical Analysis The price action on the chart confirms the bearish bias: 1️⃣ 4-Hour Rejection: The "Exhaustion Spike" at the 95.00 - 95.55 supply zone is the primary signal. It shows a clear failure by buyers and a strong takeover by sellers at a key level. 2️⃣ Long-Term Trend: On the daily chart, the price is trading below the critical 200-day moving average , confirming the long-term trend remains bearish. 3️⃣ Waning Momentum: There is a clear bearish divergence on the daily RSI. The price made a higher high, but the momentum indicator made a lower high, signaling that the rally is internally weak and losing steam. 📋 Trading Setup This is a swing trade designed to capture a significant correction with a simple "set and forget" plan. 📉 Direction: SHORT / SELL 👉 Entry: Sell Limit @ 94.85 ⛔️ Stop Loss: 95.60 🎯 Take Profit: 91.10 💡 Rationale: The entry is placed strategically to capitalize on a potential retest of the rejection area. The stop loss is placed safely above the rejection wick and the major resistance zone. The take profit targets the major structural support from the May 2025 lows, offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
1
AUDJPY 4Hour TF - July 6th, 2025AUDJPY 7/6/2025 AUDJPY 4hour Neutral Idea Monthly - Bullish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Ranging We’re getting some mixed signals here on AJ so i’ll keep this as a neutral idea as we need more info from price action. Most of the major trends seem bearish but the 4hour trend seems to have some bullish pressure. Let’s see how this could play out this week: Bullish Breakout - We already saw a pretty significant bullish attempt to break out of this range around 94.500. If we can spot some bullish conviction, now that we're retesting what seems to be a broken range, then we can confirm a bullish 4hour trend and prepare for potential long scenarios. I’ll be looking higher toward key resistance around 96.500 if this happens. Bearish Breakout - For us to consider comfortable bearish scenarios, we would need to see price action fall back through our 94.500 zone and form a lower high. If we see structure formed below 94.500 we can begin targeting lower for potential short positions. Look toward key support levels as targets.
by ForexLeague
AUDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 96.835. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 93.887 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
SYMMETRYHello awesome traders! 👋 Hope you’ve managed to grab some solid pips from the markets this week. As we head into the weekend, I’m wrapping things up by dropping a few clean chart setups for you to review and reflect on. Enjoy the weekend, recharge well — and I’ll see you sharp and ready next week for more structure-led opportunities. 📌 Pattern Breakdown We had a beautiful AB=CD symmetry setup, with a slight twist: 🔹 AB = CD structure extended slightly beyond traditional symmetry 🔹 CD stretched into the 127.2% fib projection — a known trap zone 🔹 Price tagged 95.980 and reacted with strong bullish momentum from the PCZ (95.98–95.58) 🔹 This zone also aligned with 161.8% fib extension support = strong confluence 🎯 Target Structure Following the rejection, price is now rotating upward, moving toward: ✅ Target 1:  • 23.6% = 97.16  • 61.8% = 97.972 📍 Partial TP booked at 23.6% 🧭 Watching price behavior here before deciding whether to continue toward… 🔄 Target 2 Zone:  • 78.6% = 98.508 🧠 Key Concepts in Play ✅ AB=CD symmetry extended to 127.2% ✅ Valid PCZ rejection from confluence zone ✅ Partial profit taken at TP1 ✅ Measured continuation play in motion ✅ Structure-led management with clear invalidation 🗝 Final Thoughts AUDJPY gave us a clean extended symmetry rejection — and now we’re in the follow-through phase. The reaction off the 127% extension shows that even stretched patterns can hold when structure aligns. We’ve locked some gains at the 23.6% zone and will let the rest play out or reassess early next week depending on price behavior around the 61.8% mark. “Even when symmetry stretches — the reaction reveals the conviction.”
Long
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
Unique Bearish Setup Emerges for AUD/JPY This QuarterFenzoFx—AUD/JPY is bullish, currently testing the critical resistance and order block at 97.3. This level coincides with the VWAP and volume profile point of interest. Bears are interested in adding short positions at the 97.3 price level. Since this level is highly important and has the potential to change the trend, it is necessary to form a double top at this price, which has not happened before. From a technical perspective, if a double top pattern forms at 97.3 and this level holds, a new bearish trend will likely emerge. In this scenario, the 93.9 level is likely to be targeted.
Short
by FenzoFxBroker
AUD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT Hello, Friends! We are going short on the AUD/JPY with the target of 92.517 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
Trump v Powell: Round 6A day that looked like it was drifting into a 'summer lull' kind of day, suddenly had bouts of volatility when the TRUMP / POWELL SAGA re-emerged. Which is making it difficult to hold an opinion at the moment. If the president wins the battle and the FED cut rates more than expected, the USD (should) weaken. If Mr Powell (and the FED board) remain steadfast and keep the wait and see narrative, the USD (should) remain bouyed. Yesterday's AUD JPY trade stopped out when the market ultimately decided the data didn't move the dial for potential rate cuts. It turned out that 'USD JPY long' would have been the optimal trade. And that's the risk you take when placing a trade 'post data' but 'pre US open'. Of course, the risk to waiting for the US open is that the opportunity could have passed. It's a conundrum I don't think will ever have a clear answer. Ultimately, I don't regret yesterday's trade given the information I had at that moment. Inflation remains 'sticky' in the UK and a lot of emphasis is being put on Thursday's employment data. A 'soft' number will put the BOE in a bind of needing rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but unable to cut due to high inflation. We also have upcoming AUD employment data, an improvement on last month is forecast, which should see the RBA remain hawkish. And I continue to hold my view that 'fundamentally' AUD JPY long is a good trade. It's just a case of waiting for the right moment. I have read that this week's JPY strength could be attributed to profit taking following recent weakness and ahead of elections in Japan this coming weekend. Currently, it's a case of staying patient, maintaing a narrative. And trade when you feel like momentum backs up bias. If you only feel comfortable with a 1.2:1 risk reward, I would suggest that could be wise for the time being. Tricky times, please feel free offervthoughtd or questions:
by johnelfedforexblog
FOREX: Weekly Review: The week starting Monday 7 was a fairly sanguine week. With limited US data on the agenda, all eyes were on commentary surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline. Ultimately, any tariff concerns were be brushed aside when a 'fresh deadline' of August 2 was announced. Any attempts at fresh escalation following the announcement were met with ambiguity, as the market continues to hold the view that the president's bark is worse than his bite. It was very pleasing to see the JPY weaken so much, without reading about a particular cause for JPY weakness, I put it down to a possible re-emergence of the 'carry trade'. Which is hopefully good news moving forward. It was also nice to see the AUD so strong. A data dependent hold, combined with the overall positive risk environment and the rising price of copper, all contributed to AUD JPY long being a very viable trade all week. The RBNZ also held rates, but with not as hawkish a narrative as the RBA. The GBP continues to remain under pressure, the narrative surrounding the fiscal competency of the government compounded by 'soft' GDP data. And if anyone thinks a 'relative fundamental' GBP AUD short is a good idea, I wouldn't disagree. I'm finding it difficult to have faith in the direction of the USD, caught between the post NFP strength / higher for longer narrative. And the overall market consensus that rate cuts will be coming soon. All in all, I'll begin the new week keeping an eye on the tariff narrative, but, barring any 'strong negativity' (I'll let the VIX decide how negative the news is), I'll continue to hold a view that 'risk on' trades are viable. And with US CPI in the limelight, 'hopefully' a 'soft number' will compound the 'risk on narrative'. On a personal note, it was a week of two trades, both AUD JPY long. The first hit profit and the second trade stopped out, interestingly, I was a lot more confident in the stop loss of the second trade, which goes to show no matter how confident we feel, we can only ever expect a 50% win rate. Please excuse my lack of narrative at end of the week. On Thursday I suffered a strong migraine, which wiped me out for 48 hours. And is a reminder to myself to get my eyes tested, and perhaps to drink more water in this unusually hot UK weather. But if anyone did continue to short the JPY on Thursday and Friday, I would suggest it was a very valid trade idea. Results: Trade 1: AUD JPY +1.2 Trade 2: AUD JPY -1 Total = +0.2%
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
AUDJPY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025AUDJPY 7/13/2025 AUDJPY 4hour Bullish Idea Monthly - Bullish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Bullish Looking good on AJ! Last week’s analysis played out perfectly and we can see going into this week we have a similar scenario. Here are the two potential trade paths for the week ahead: Bullish Continuation - This is the most likely scenario going into this week as we just broke our 96.500 resistance and are now testing it as support. If we can confirm a higher low with strong bullish conviction we can look to enter long and target higher toward major resistance levels. Bearish Reversal - For us to consider AJ bearish we would first need to see a break back below 96.500. If we can spot a clear trend change and some lower highs below 96.500 we can begin looking short. Target lower toward major support levels if this happens.
Long
by ForexLeague
AUDUSD Technical Analysis: Bullish BreakoutAUDUSD has recently broken decisively above a key resistance zone that had previously cape price for several months. This bullish breakout followed a period of compression and range-bound price action, signalling strong accumulation and building momentum. As long as price holds above the retested resistance zone, the bullish outlook remains intact. With the current structure and upward momentum, AUDUSD is likely to extend higher towards the next major target near 0.97006. You can see more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
Long
by MrMartin_11
AUDJPY Wave Analysis – 11 July 2025 - AUDJPY broke resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 98.00 AUDJPY currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 95.30 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from July. The breakout of this resistance zone continues the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from May. Given the strongly bearish yen sentiment seen across the FX markets today, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 98.00 (target price for the completion of wave 5).
Long
by FxProGlobal