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AUDJPY trade ideas

Could we see some weakness in AUDJPY in the near term?Both currencies are currently on the weaker side against their major counterparts. Despite the RBA holding off from cutting, nor hiking rates, the AUD struggled to find strong grounds. Similarly for JPY, where the currency has been hit because of no significant action taken by the BoJ, it has been tough for the yen to find strength. Also, strong global stock market activity made safe-haven yen less attractive. Given that MARKETSCOM:AUDJPY is seen as somewhat of a risk-on/risk-off monitor, we can see that the pair has been in “limbo” from around the end of August. From around the beginning of December, the pair started moving slightly upwards within a short-term rising channel formation. If we purely look at that structure, then we also examine the prevailing trend, which has been to the downside, meaning there is a greater chance for FX_IDC:AUDJPY to exit the channel through the lower side of it. However, until we see that exit, we can not assume the breakout will be lower. At the time of writing, looking at our EMAs on our daily chart, we can see that the price action is below all of them, indicating possible weakness to come. The MACD is showing some weakness in the upside momentum, and the RSI remains below 50. These are technical indications of potential downside in the near term. Nevertheless, we would prefer to wait for a clearance of the lower side of the aforementioned channel, before considering any downside movement. For us to shift our attention to some higher areas, a break of the upper side of that rising channel may indicate bullish activity. If that happens, the rate would also be placed above all our EMAs, possibly attracting more bulls into the field. RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
AUD/JPY long: Aussie kicks like a kangaroo-unexpectedlyHello traders Best wishes for a prosperous and low stress 2025. I purposely waited for the recent USD NFP print to enter into any meaningful trade. The USD/JPY reaction is what I was looking for. It is turning up and this rising tide has lifted all the major JPY cross boats. I have initiated a long AUD/JPY position at 96.962. FUNDAMENTAL REASONS: BoJ Governor Ueda has left the door open to a rate hike on the Jan 24th BUT left an escape route by referencing the need to evaluate data. FOMC Chair Powell has taught him well :) Keep an eye on Deputy Governor Himino's speech and especially press conference on 1/14/2025. The RBA statement in December unexpectedly took on a dovish tone which expedited the expected but not confirmed rate cut from March to February 2025. ECONOMIC calendar JPY: 1/23/25 National Core CPI 1/23-24/2025 BoJ rate decision ECONOMIC calendar AUD: 1/15/2025 Employment change. And this is the "kicker". Australian employment change expectations in general can be significantly off mark. If it comes in strong, the RBA may reconsider the need to cut rates. Same for CPI and PPI. 1/28/2025: CPI 1/30/2025: PPI 2/18/2025: RBA Rate decision TECHNICAL analysis: AUD/JPY shows three consecutive higher weekly closes. And closed on the 100 week MA the 4 hour chart shows the retest of the weekly 96.82 breakout level higher. INDICATORS: RSI, UO and ADX are all turning up. The pair is also in an ascending channel. My favorite part of this trade is that the downside should not be a significant hit if the stop is just below 96.82. However, do you own research. As always, I invite feedback. Best of luck.
Long
by jvrfxalerts
1
Is the bear market bounce in the AUDJPY over? 16 Risk Reward!Hello! Here is my fundamental case to be short AUDJPY 1) Strengthening economy in Japan - Is Japan finally out of its 30 year lul? 2) Weakening Economy in Australia - Are interest rates finally starting to effect the economy? 3) Extreme household debt in Australia due to the extreme property hype cycle (People say its because of immigration, I think this is just a narrative... I remember when Hong Kong 'didn't have enough space') Australia hast had its 2008 moment yet, 4) Debt is on govt balance sheet in Japan already... Australia will probably join the govt debt club once they have their property cycle FINITO. Here is my technical case to be short AUDJPY 1) We have rallied to the 61% Fibonacci of the first impulse down. 2) The 'False breakout' at 102ish gives us a good level to know we are wrong. This helps to provide a RIDICULOUS risk reward of 16:1. Thanks Kavi
Short
by kavijh
2
Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity ### **Trading Plan: AUD/JPY Monthly Sell Opportunity** #### **1. Market Analysis** - **Timeframe:** Monthly - **Trend Direction:** Analyze the previous 12-24 months' candles to determine the dominant trend. - **Key Levels:** - Last Month's High (LMH) - Last Month's Low (LML) #### **2. Identify Key Levels and Defense Zone** - **Last Month’s High:** Mark the high of the previous monthly candle on the chart. - **Fibonacci Vibration Grid (FVG):** - Use the Fibonacci retracement tool from the recent swing low to swing high or vice versa to plot the FVG levels. - Look for overlapping FVG zones above the last month’s high. - **Defense Zone:** - This is a resistance area formed by overlapping FVG levels and key price action zones. - Ensure the defense zone aligns with institutional order blocks or liquidity voids. #### **3. Entry Conditions** - **Sell Trigger:** - Price must enter the area above last month’s high and into the identified defense zone. - Confirmation via bearish price action patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, or inside bar formations). - Look for rejection or significant wick formations in the defense zone. #### **4. Risk Management** - **Stop Loss (SL):** - Place the SL slightly above the defense zone or the nearest swing high. - **Take Profit (TP):** - Set TP levels using: - Last Month’s Low (LML) as the primary target. - Extend TP to key support zones below LML if momentum supports further downside. - **Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR):** - Maintain a minimum RRR of 1:3. #### **5. Additional Confluences** - **Last Line of Defense (LLD):** - Identify the LLD as the highest resistance point above the LMH where price may reverse. - Ensure it coincides with the FVG overlap and an institutional order block. - **Volume Analysis:** - Use the Volume Profile or On-Balance Volume (OBV) to assess institutional activity in the sell zone. - **Indicators (Optional):** - RSI divergence: Look for bearish divergence when price approaches the defense zone. - Moving Averages: Check for alignment with the bearish trend. #### **6. Execution Plan** - Wait for price to approach and react within the defense zone. - Observe confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., daily or 4H) for better precision in entries. - Scale into the position if the market provides multiple rejection points within the zone. #### **7. Monitoring and Adjustments** - Reassess the trade if price closes above the defense zone on the monthly timeframe. - Trail the stop loss using key resistance levels or moving averages if the trade moves significantly in your favor. ?
Short
by Asif_Brain_Waves
AUDJPY - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D and 1W key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range. But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
AUD/JPY Trendline Breakout Play!Hey traders, I’m sharing a live trade I’ve just entered on the AUD/JPY pair. Let’s dive into the details, step by step, so you can see exactly why I took this trade and how I’m managing it. 🔥 First, take a look at this beautiful uptrend line I’ve drawn. The price has been respecting this line perfectly, forming higher highs and higher lows, which shows us that the bulls are still in control. 🐂 Right now, the price has bounced off this trendline, and that’s where I entered Long at 98.448. Why did I take this trade? 1️⃣ Trendline Support: The price bounced from a key support zone. 2️⃣ RSI Confirmation: The RSI is above 50, showing bullish momentum. 3️⃣ Clear Risk/Reward: This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, which is always part of my trading plan. Here’s the full breakdown: Entry Point: 98.448 Stop-Loss (SL): 97.976 (just below the trendline and the last swing low). Take Profit (TP): 98.870 (a key resistance zone and a logical target for this move). Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 If the price hits my TP, it’s a solid win! If it hits my SL, I’ve kept the loss manageable, as always. 💼 So now it’s a waiting game, but I’m confident in this setup. What do you think? Will the price reach my target? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more live trades and market insights! 🙌 Disclaimer This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you can lose more than your initial investment. Always do your own research and consult a professional before trading.
Long
by FXOnTop
AUD/JPY LongMarket Analysis: Asset: AUD/JPY Timeframe: 1-Hour Bullish Divergence: Observed on the 1-hour RSI, indicating a potential reversal. Trendline Breakout: Price is testing a downward trendline, hinting at a possible breakout to the upside. 4-Hour Trend: Confirmed bullish trend, providing higher timeframe confluence for the long setup. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Enter a buy position on the breakout and close above the trendline with confirmation. Stop-Loss: Place the stop-loss below the recent swing low or key support zone around 97.50. Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 98.98 (prior resistance zone). TP2: 99.55 (further resistance and psychological level). Risk Management: Position Size: Use proper risk management, risking no more than 1-2% of your trading capital. Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least a 1:2 R/R ratio for this setup. Additional Confirmation: Volume Analysis: Look for an increase in buying volume during the breakout. RSI: Ensure RSI remains above 50 to confirm bullish momentum.
Long
by MAAwan