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AUDJPY trade ideas

JPY: Is the potential rate hike priced in?Hello traders I have the opportunity to catch the opening bell of the NY, Asian and London/Europe markets. It does come at a cost with interrupted sleep when necessary but the pay off is worth it. I trade EUR/USD in the morning and the JPY crosses in the afternoon with the focus on AUD/JPY. The technical indicators, in my opinion, point to the possibility that a rate HIKE by the BOJ has been priced in against the majors. The Federal Reserve USD rate CUT is also baked into the markets outlook. Fundamentally, the USD still has the upper hand with more Fed speak pointing to "no rush to lower rates" by Fed Powell and San Francisco's Mary Daly earlier today. BOJ's Nakamura also commented today that consumption lacks momentum. Japan also showed an uptick in the most recent unemployment rate. This could of course change in a heart beat if labor markets show a significant slowdown over the next few months or if inflation picks up again if/when Trump enforces all the threats of tariffs. The next rate cut from Australia is factored in for May 2025 but the lower print on GDP was unexpected. And the Chinese economy's performance obviously plays a huge role in the AUD performance. BUT, proceed with caution over the next few weeks until all the central bank rate decisions are out of the way. Surprisingly, the EURO has taken the political turmoil in France in it's stride. It does not appear as if it will precipitate another Greece-like debt crisis, yet. Here is a look at the EUR/JPY Stay nimble. There are a lot of balls up in the air at the moment. Best of luck.
by jvrfxalerts
2
AUD/JPY Analysis: Speculators Eye Potential Downside Amid RetailAUD/JPY presents a compelling case for downside potential as large speculators increasingly position short, according to COT data. This shift in institutional sentiment contrasts with the prevailing retail bullish bias, with many traders still holding long positions, expecting the pair to continue its upward momentum. However, when retail sentiment becomes too optimistic, especially near critical resistance levels, it often signals a reversal opportunity for larger players. With institutions positioning for further downside, AUD/JPY could be primed for a pullback or breakdown as retail traders’ stop-losses become targets for liquidity grabs. Given the contrast between institutional positioning and retail sentiment, AUD/JPY remains vulnerable to downside pressure. Monitoring sentiment extremes and watching for liquidity events around key levels could provide key insights into the next major move for the pair.
Short
by OssianH
AUD/JPY: Is the Downtrend Losing Steam?Monthly Chart Overview On the monthly chart, AUD/JPY is exhibiting significant downside extension, reaching a key rejection zone. This area has historically acted as a strong support or resistance, which could indicate potential for price exhaustion. However, patience is required, as the bearish trend remains intact for now. Weekly Chart Perspective Zooming into the weekly chart, the price appears even more overextended to the downside. The pair is approaching important zones of interest, suggesting the possibility of a retracement. This could present buying opportunities as the price potentially rebalances. However, the bearish momentum remains strong, making it crucial to wait for confirmation since the downward trend could persist. 4-Hour Chart Dynamics On the 4-hour chart, the key lies in observing whether: Price breaks aggressively to the upside, signaling the beginning of a potential retracement, or Price continues its downward movement, confirming the prevailing bearish trend. This timeframe is crucial for fine-tuning your entry and taking a directional stance. Any aggressive bullish momentum or clear bearish continuation will dictate the strategy. Fundamental Insights (COT Report) A notable signal suggesting the potential for a long setup is visible in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report: The JPY positions are showing aggressive additions to long positions, with a simultaneous unwinding of short positions. In contrast, the AUD remains stable, indicating less aggressive positioning on the AUD side of the pair. This shift in sentiment toward the JPY could be an early indication of a potential reversal in AUD/JPY, as the market might be anticipating a weakening of the downtrend or a possible retracement. Trading Approach Bullish Plan: Wait for confirmation of a reversal (e.g., bullish engulfing candles, breaks of recent highs, or strong momentum). Enter on the retracement with targets at resistance levels identified on the weekly chart. The shift in JPY positioning strengthens the case for this setup. Bearish Plan: If the price continues to break lower, consider shorting after a pullback to resistance, in line with the higher timeframe trend. Key Takeaways The combination of price reaching historical rejection zones and the COT report sentiment shift suggests potential for a reversal, but patience is critical for confirmation. Monitor the 4-hour chart for key breakouts or confirmations in price direction. Use defined zones on the monthly and weekly charts for targets and risk management.
by Wiiso
AUDJPY The Target Is UP! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for AUDJPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 96.617 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 97.989 Safe Stop Loss - 95.840 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
2
#018 DCA AUDJPY ShortI just closed the USDJPY Sell for a small overall profit but I opened the AUDJPY and sold it instead, now. I decided to short the AUDJPY because I realised that some pairs have just broken out of the Minor Consolidation on the 15 Minutes Time Frame, and AUDJPY is one of it. I am entering on a push wave, but if price pulls back and shows and overbought that is lower, I could also DCA at that point. I have also drawn two horizontal lines where I think that price could retrace back to if the push wave isn't strong enough to push price all the way to TP. Besides, the TP size is quite big as compared to my usual TP size of 20+ to 40+ pips I think. This AUDJPY TP size is 140.7 pips. But of course, if price isn't moving much I will close the positions as I deem fit. 2156SGT 02122024
Short
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
2
AUDJPY is Holding After Channel BreakoutHello Traders In This Chart AUDJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today AUDJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (AUDJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on AUDJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexMasters2000
AUD/JPY re-entry into an ascending patternHi, dear investors we are revisiting the AUD/JPY pair after the strong support level was broken and the pair went out of structure , making our previous entry as a fail, but as we can see written on the chart we have successfully touched the botom and we have entered and confiremd an ascending pattern - Entry : 97.550 Target 1 : 98.100 Target 2 : 99.500 After we go back in the 99.00 area we will revisit the pair if we can in put our previous strategy and continue forward so we can follow up with the next high targets of 100,101 and finalize at 102 at the upper Resistance Level. As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Long
by DG55Capital
PA #2 : audjpy sell 02/12/24 TRADE 1 : STOP LOSS (-0.78%) 1/ What I did right: - Always looking for the activity, if there is any (only big boys can move the market) - identification of aud and jpy news today but relatively no market reaction - Identification of strong market reaction for buys from CPI news from JPY (29/11) - Identification of market flow which is strong for JPY - Identification of Power (previous session break and day break) which indicates that the big boys made the move: this is my job now. - Right pair selection by choosing AUD which is weak. 2/ What i did wrong: The direction was right, but timing was bad. - This was mainly due to a big difference between the 3 min tf (for entry) and the 1h TF (for job identification). This trade was in fact a 1H+15M trade instead of 15M+3M trade. - Most important mistake: i didn't enter at the break of the money spot but before. I waited for the reaction like yesterday and the failure of the opposite part, but didn't trade at the break of the money spot. 3/ What i will change: - We always enter at the break of the money spot, not before. (and the money spot has to be after the comeback of the buyers and the weakness of the sellers. - Decide in advance the time frame we will choose, if it's a JOB that took place days before, higher time frame will be more suitable. And we won't get lost in the noise. TRADE 2: TP (+0.85%) 1/ What I did right: Same as previous+ - waited for the weakness of the sellers waited for the comeback waited for the money spot 2/ What I did wrong: - Decided to risk only 0.25% after the loss, maybe i could risk 1%( would've got +3% 3/ What i will change: I will wait until the end of the week and check if we should keep safe or go harder based on performance. TOTAL: -0.78% OBJECTIF: +10%
Short
by elpatrondelamafia
Falling towards pullback support?AUD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 95.69 1st Support: 94.30 1st Resistance: 96.92 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
AUDJPY: Channel Up bottomed. Bullish.AUDJPY turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.123, MACD = -0.750, ADX = 46.331) as it touched the bottom of the Channel Up. Unlike the price's LL decline, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up from oversold range, which is the exact same formation it had after pricing the September 11th bottom. Consequently, we should be expecting the pair to bottom now and start the new bullish wave. The last one hit and even breached the R1 level and then pulled back to the 4H MA50. We are aiming for the same level (TP = 101.550). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
AJ (last couple Decembers is a sell)- per monthly chartsFrom the monthly charts of AJ, last couple of years- December (next month) is a sell. I will be looking for selling opportunities only at this time. Chart attached is weekly AJ chart- which shows a red box from the 90.000 to the 94.000 area which, in my opinion price action will go for the remainder of 2024. At this time price action is around 100.00- so if that happens it is at least a 600.000 pip sell opportunity at this time. Good luck with your trading- stay safe. Please have a great rest of year and god bless.
Short
by Anbat