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AUDUSD.1.MINI trade ideas

AUDUSD FUTURE PROJECTION AUDUSD was quite interesting- I did expect it to buy due to the bullish week it has had, however in hindsight, seeing how both GU and EU moved this week, I can see why it too wasn’t bullish. With that being said, I’m expecting a further break downwards. Once it does, I expect it to pull back once more to complete the sell and take out the most recent weekly low. Another interesting point to note is that there was a further lower price level (Weekly) which wasn’t as recent as the aforementioned price point. Price CAN seek that low - that’s something to also look out for. N.B.: This is not financial advice. Trade safely and with caution.
Short
by saintprincevvs
AUD/USD Analysis: Exchange Rate Holds at a 56-Month LowAUD/USD Analysis: Exchange Rate Holds at a 56-Month Low As seen on the AUD/USD chart, yesterday the exchange rate fell below the level of 0.618 Australian dollars per 1 US dollar. The last time the Australian dollar was this weak was in April 2020, during the global spread of the coronavirus. The decline followed the release of inflation data from Australia earlier this week. According to Bloomberg: → Overall annual inflation accelerated to 2.3%, up from 2.1% previously. → The trimmed mean core inflation (which smooths volatile items and is closely monitored by the Reserve Bank) slowed to 3.2%, down from 3.5%. → Traders are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in February from the current 4.35% (a 13-year high). Technical analysis of the AUD/USD chart shows that, despite the exchange rate being within the current downtrend (shown in red on the chart), there are grounds for bulls to remain hopeful, as: → The RSI indicator points to a divergence, which can be interpreted as weakening selling pressure. → Although the median line of the channel has acted as resistance (marked by a red arrow), the sharp rise in the first days of 2025 suggests that demand forces are gaining momentum. Thus, it’s possible that if the AUD/USD exchange rate falls back to the lower boundary of the red channel, this could attract buyers of the weakened Australian dollar. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Key Support at 0.6179: Will AUD/USD Break or Bounce?Dear friends! Currently, AUD/USD is struggling to record any meaningful recovery and remains near multi-year lows. In this context, the Fed's hawkish shift has driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, supporting the USD. Concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and expectations of an early rate cut by the RBA continue to weigh on the Australian dollar. Therefore, we can say that the probability of further price decline in the medium-term outlook is quite high. As mentioned on the 4-hour chart, the current price is approaching the level of 0.6179. A consolidation pattern is forming ahead of a potential breakout related to this level. I do not rule out the possibility of the price retesting the EMA resistance or a local high before further breakdown. However, the overall technical and fundamental situation suggests a decline. Focus on the trigger level at 0.6179. A breakdown and price consolidation below this level will likely trigger a significant drop.
Short
by Bentradegold
Bullish bounce?AUD/USD is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.6163 1st Support: 0.6125 1st Resistance: 0.6236 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD: Bullish Forecast Ahead!As we delve into the AUD/USD pair, my analysis leads me to a confident 'Buy' signal at an entry price of 0.61948. The objective here is to target a Take Profit of 0.62166333, while maintaining a Stop Loss at 0.61722333. What drives this bullish perspective? For starters, the fundamentals behind the Australian dollar remain robust, bolstered by favorable export conditions and a resilient economy. Investors have shown increasing confidence, partially fueled by optimistic data releases and key economic indicators suggesting growth. Moreover, the overall sentiment in the market seems to favor risk-on approaches, pushing AUD higher. On the technical front, the alignment of support levels around the 0.61948 mark indicates a solid foundation where buyers are likely to step in. Notably, the historical performance of the AUD/USD complex demonstrates a win rate of 64.74% for long trades, alongside a profit factor of 1.67. Such metrics, backed by the EASY Trading AI strategy, present a favorable risk-reward scenario. In conclusion, AUD/USD appears primed for upward movement. Should conditions hold, traders could effectively leverage this bullish trend. Remember, always manage risks wisely and consider market volatility while trading.
Long
by ForexRobotEasy
Is AUD/USD’s 2-Year Low a Crisis or an Opportunity? 25.01.10Hello, this is Greedy All-Day. Today’s analysis focuses on AUD/USD. Daily Chart Overview Looking at the daily chart, AUD/USD has reached the orange box zone, a critical level where the next direction will likely be decided. Scenario 1: If the support holds, a rebound is expected. Scenario 2: If the support fails, a decline toward the green box zone, or potentially lower, could occur. The strong rebound from the green box in the past was supported by U.S. COVID-related policies. Without such external factors now, a failure of the orange box support could lead to unpredictable further declines, with recovery timelines also uncertain. Weekly Chart Insights On the weekly chart, the orange box level is notable for how rarely it has been tested, historically appearing approximately once every 10 years. In 2022, AUD/USD rebounded from this level. Now, just 2 years later, the price has returned, deviating from the typical cycle. This could signal a potential shift in trend. Key Observations: Historically, 0.617 has served as a strong support, keeping the price above this level. However, there’s now a possibility of entering the blue box zone, just below 0.617. If the price breaks below 0.617, it could take years for a recovery. For example, during the last breakdown into the blue box zone, it took approximately 5 years for AUD/USD to reclaim 0.617. A similar prolonged recovery may occur this time. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? Immediate Recovery: If the price consolidates near the current level, a breakout above the resistance trendline could occur around January 30, signaling a potential short-term uptrend. Complete Recovery: To fully recover, AUD/USD must break and sustain above 0.635. Resistance at 0.635 is expected due to: Past support tests near the blue box zone. The red box breakdown, which triggered a strong bearish candle on December 18, 2024, now serving as resistance. Without breaking these two levels, a sustained recovery is unlikely. What If 0.617 Breaks? If AUD/USD breaks below 0.617, the next major support levels are: 0.6074 0.6006 0.5800 0.5500 Key Recommendation: The only level worth considering for a reversal trade is 0.5500, due to its history of strong rebounds. Attempting reversal trades at other levels poses significant risk. Conclusion The current support at 0.617 is critical: A break below this level could open the door to uncharted lows. It would mark the first time in 4 years that 0.617 is breached. Historically, 0.617 has been tested once every 10 years, but this cycle has shortened to just 2 years, potentially signaling a downward shift in the long-term trend. If the trend breaks downward, avoid counter-trend trades. While lower prices may seem extreme, they remain technically possible given the current trajectory. For a significant recovery, external policy changes will likely play a crucial role. Traders should remain cautious and strategic in navigating this uncertain environment. 🚀
by Greedy_allday
AUD/USD Testing Key Support Amid Persistent DowntrendChart Analysis: The AUD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, reaching critical support levels, while bearish momentum remains dominant. 1️⃣ Key Support Levels: Immediate support at 0.6190, marking the current level of defense for buyers. Further support at 0.6169, the next line of demand if the pair breaks lower. 2️⃣ Downtrend Line: The pair remains constrained by a steep descending trendline, highlighting the sustained bearish pressure. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-week SMA (blue): Trending downward at 0.6574, aligning with the bearish outlook. 200-week SMA (red): Sloping lower near 0.6870, confirming the broader bearish trend. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 30, indicating oversold conditions, but further downside cannot be ruled out. MACD: Deeply negative and declining, reflecting strong bearish momentum. What to Watch: A break below 0.6190 could open the door for further declines toward 0.6169 or lower levels. Any sustained break above the descending trendline would indicate easing bearish pressure and may attract buyers. Monitor RSI for potential bullish divergence as the pair approaches oversold levels. AUD/USD remains under intense bearish pressure, with key support levels being tested. Traders should watch for any breakout or breakdown signals to determine the pair’s next directional move. -MW
by FOREXcom
AUDUSD Technical Analysis! BUY! My dear friends, My technical analysis for AUDUSD is below: The market is trading on 0.6199 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation. Target - 0.6226 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range. According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise. Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million). Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited. Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar • Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies: Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994. • Sustained Strength of the US Dollar: Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak. • Reasons Behind Dollar Strength: 1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets. 2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap. 3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar. • Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength: 1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation. 2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward. • Impacts of Dollar Strength: 1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs. 2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength. Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
Long
by Ali_PSND
AUD/USD Trading Plan Long/Short Swing TradeThe pair has reached a 2 years low (0.6200). There are two scenario's that I will be following. Scenario 1 Long To trigger a long entry there are a few thing I wish to see before I enter go long. 1. Break of the down slopping trend line around 0.6300 level 2. Creation of new HH and HL (New up-slopping trendline) 3. Break of the resistance level at 0.6350 4. re-test of the level or a fundamental catalyst to give the power for a strong break out 5. Cross of the EMA100 For this entry I will target the 0.6550 level and SL bellow the last HL Scenario 2 Short (Following the current down trend) the only additional confirmation I will need for a short entry is the break and re-test of 0.6200 level, also a look on the volume indicators. The level I will target is 0.6000 super old support level(4.5 years) For my Day trade position I will be using the same levels as reference, using more of chart/candle patterns on 1 and 4h hours time frames for 30-40 pips targets. I hope you enjoyed or find useful this information, feedback is always welcome. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
by Don_Bob
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD Analysis - LONG 👆 In this Chart AUDUSD D1 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions. ❤️This Chart is for AUDUSD market analysis. ❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy. This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts. The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in AUDUSD, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management. 🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢 ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Long
by Nii_Billions