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AUD/USD false break reversalThe AUD/USD chart is super interesting to watch and trade this week. It fell yesterday to a fresh multi-year low, but rallied from its lows to close the day higher after Trump delayed tariffs on the USA's northern and southern neighbours. Anyway, the AUD/USD has potentially formed what looks like a false break bullish reversal pattern against the January low of 0.6131. The bulls will want to see rates now hold above Monday's high (that too, being a nice a hammer candle). If seen, we could see further follow-up technical buying in the days ahead. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Long
by FOREXcom
AUD/USD - Crucial Support @ 0.62000 to 0.61700Dear Friends, How I see it: If support area holds, pair can potentially rally to 0.64000 - in the near term. It will also confirm the main swing support for the pair. Up to 0.68000 in the long run. I have indicated my buy zone, please see how price react first. Keynotes: 1) If a 4HR candle body closes below 0.61600, I will not enter on that day. 2) To avoid confusion, price may test 0.61700 hard, but if the day candle pulls back and still closes above 0.62000, we'll be golden. I'm only creating a perfect scenario for an explanatory reason. I am confident that you know we are NOT trading in a perfect market, in la la land! Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Long
by ANROC
WILL BULLISH ORDER CANDLE ABLE TO REVERSE AUDUSD?AUDUSD pair now hovering over the bullish order candle. Will this be sufficient for the pair's bullish reversal to test its recent swing high? Goto LTF to establish bullish market structure; else, pair may still go further down. N.B! - AUDUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #audusd
Long
by BullBearMkt
Bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support level. Pivot: 0.6285 1st Support: 0.6237 1st Resistance: 0.6330 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD: Battle at .6262 – Bounce or Breakdown Ahead?AUD/USD is testing minor support at .6262 following a failure to break the 50DMA. Whether it holds this level may determine which direction it takes later in the session. If the price can’t break .6262 convincingly, longs could be established above with a stop beneath for protection. The aim would be to see a retest of the 50DMA with a break of that level opening the door for a run towards .6337. However, a clean break of .6262 could see the setup flipped, with shorts placed below the level with a stop above for protection. .6170 screens as one possible target with .6088 the next after that. Momentum indicators are providing mixed signals with RSI (14) trending lower while MACD has resumed its climb higher. Based on price action earlier in the week, a bullish bias is marginally favoured overall. Good luck! DS
by FOREXcom
Bullish Scenario Breakdown📢 Hey traders, friends, and companions! Hello everyone! It’s been a while—about 6–7 months since my last post—and I’ve missed sharing my insights with you. I hope you're all doing well and having a successful trading week! Lately, I’ve been analyzing the long-term outlook for AUD/USD, and I’d like to share my thoughts based on Elliott Wave Theory. As always, this perspective is shaped by the current price structure, and of course, everything depends on the strength or weakness of DXY (US Dollar Index). 🔍 Market Outlook 📌 If the DXY weakens, we could see strong bullish momentum in AUD/USD, with impulsive waves developing toward higher targets. 📌 If the DXY strengthens, then we may experience further declines in AUD/USD and other USD-based pairs. 💡 From my experience, the Australian and New Zealand dollars tend to react faster to DXY movements compared to other pairs, creating sharp and significant price swings. 🔄 Bullish Scenario Breakdown ✅ Key trigger: A strong breakout above the aggressive bullish zone. ✅ Next step: A corrective pattern, forming the base for the next impulsive rally. ✅ First Target Range: If the bullish scenario plays out, we could see price movement toward the first target zone, with potential corrections along the way. ✅ Final Thought: If the DXY shows strength, I’ll definitely update this analysis to reflect any changes. I’d love to hear your thoughts! What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Let me know in the comments below. 📊 If you found this analysis valuable, don’t forget to like, follow, and share to stay updated with my latest insights! More market breakdowns coming soon. Stay sharp and trade wisely! 🚀🔥
Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
Day Trading: A Comprehensive GuideDay trading is a dynamic trading style that attracts many traders, particularly those looking to capitalize on short-term market movements. Unlike other trading strategies that span days, weeks, or even months, day trading involves executing trades within the same trading day, taking advantage of price fluctuations throughout that period. This guide will explore the essence of day trading, its strategies, pros and cons, and tips for success, delving deeper into the intricacies of the market and the techniques required to navigate it effectively. What is Day Trading? Day trading involves the buying and selling of financial instruments within a single trading day. Traders do not hold positions overnight; instead, they aim to profit from daily market movements. This approach is particularly appealing to novice traders, who may believe that frequent trades can exponentially increase profits. However, the fast-paced nature of day trading requires discipline and a solid trading plan, as emotional decision-making can lead to significant losses. Traders typically utilize various time frames, often ranging from one minute (M1) to one hour (H1). While beginners may gravitate towards shorter time frames like M5 or M15, these often result in increased noise and the potential for quickly hitting stop-loss orders. Successful day traders understand that consistent profitability stems from maintaining discipline and developing a robust trading strategy rather than chasing quick wins. Understanding Market Psychology Market psychology plays a significant role in day trading. Fear, greed, and anxiety are the primary emotions driving investor behavior, leading to price movements. Traders must remain aware of market sentiment, gauging the mood of other traders and market participants. This involves: 1. Sentiment Analysis: Assessing current market sentiment can help traders position themselves correctly. Bullish sentiment often leads to higher prices, while bearish sentiment causes prices to drop. 2. Economic Indicators: Monitoring economic indicators and news releases helps traders anticipate potential price movements, influencing their trading decisions. 3. Support and Resistance: Key support and resistance levels indicate areas of price stability and potential for price reversal. Read also: --- Strategies for Successful Day Trading --- To thrive in day trading, adherence to particular strategies is essential. Here’s a look at some of the most common techniques employed by day traders: 1. Scalping Scalping is one of the oldest and most popular strategies in day trading. It involves making numerous trades throughout the day to capture small price movements. Scalpers analyze charts and execute quick trades based on technical indicators, entering and exiting positions in mere minutes. This method thrives in low-volatility environments, where assets tend to fluctuate within tight ranges, allowing traders to realize small but consistent profits. Example of Scalping on 5-Minute EURUSD with Simple Moving Average and Standard RSI Indicator 2. Reverse Trading Reverse trading capitalizes on market range-bound conditions. Traders identify key support and resistance levels and execute trades based on the price retracing from these points. This strategy typically requires a combination of technical analysis and an understanding of fundamental data. It's crucial to remain vigilant about scheduled news releases, as these can create sudden price surges or drops that impact positions. Read also: 3. Momentum Trading Momentum trading relies on the strength of existing price movements. This strategy involves entering trades in the direction of a prevailing trend, often guided by fundamental analysis and technical indicators such as Moving Averages. Traders monitor economic news and events that may influence market dynamics, utilizing these insights to execute long or short trades accordingly. Read also: 4. Range Trading Range trading involves buying an asset when its price falls to the lower boundary of a trading range and selling when it reaches the upper boundary. This strategy requires a keen eye for identifying support and resistance levels and a deep understanding of market volatility. Read also: Pros and Cons of Day Trading Day trading comes with a distinct set of advantages and challenges. Here’s a balanced view of its pros and cons: Pros: - Access to Capital: Traders can start day trading with lower capital requirements since each trade can yield a profit in just a few pips. - Flexibility: Traders have control over their trading schedule, allowing them to choose when and how long to engage in trades. - Potential for High Returns: Successful day trading can produce significant profits compared to longer-term strategies, provided that trades are executed prudently and systematically. Cons: - High Risk: Day trading is inherently risky, especially for those inexperienced in market dynamics. The potential for quick losses is significant. - Psychological Pressure: The fast-paced nature of day trading can lead to emotional decision-making, which can derail even the most disciplined traders. Read also: - Time Commitment: Day traders must be patient and ready to dedicate long hours to monitoring the markets, which may not suit everyone. - Commissions and Fees: Trading frequently can lead to increased commissions and fees, eating into potential profits and making it essential to maintain a high win-to-loss ratio. Managing Risks in Day Trading Risk management is paramount to surviving in the world of day trading. Here are some risk management techniques to consider: 1. Position Sizing: Proper position sizing is critical to risk management in day trading. This involves allocating the right amount of capital to each trade to minimize the impact of potential losses. 2. Stops and Limits: Traders use stops and limits to limit potential losses. Stops are triggered when prices reach a predefined level, closing out the position, while limits are triggered when prices reach a certain level, closing out the position. 3. Risk Reward Ratio: Setting a risk reward ratio helps traders maintain profitability. This involves setting a ratio of reward to risk, typically around 1:3 to 1:4. Read also: /b] and.. and... Conclusion Day trading can be a lucrative venture for those willing to invest time in understanding market mechanics, developing strategies, and exercising disciplined decision-making. While it may appear attractive, particularly for beginners, the reality is that successful day trading requires meticulous planning, emotional control, and a well-thought-out strategy. For those new to day trading, practicing on a demo account is advised to build skills and confidence. Starting with simpler strategies, such as pullback trading or scalping, can help beginners navigate the complexities of intraday trading. Ultimately, comprehensive knowledge of technical analysis and a clear grasp of market sentiment are critical for achieving consistent success in day trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Education
by FOREXN1
1
AUDUSD – Volatility Alert: Mind the GapIt’s been a busy start to the week for AUDUSD after President Trump followed through over the weekend with his promise to impose trade tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China, who is Australia’s biggest trading partner, starting on Tuesday February 4th. AUDUSD was already under pressure after last Wednesday’s CPI reading showed Australian core inflation to have eased more than expected, which boosted trader expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) when they meet on February 18th and sent the currency back down towards yearly lows, closing on Friday at 0.6210. Now, the potential escalation of a global tit for tat trade war has boosted the dollar side of the FX pair as concerns filter through around the upside impact this could have on US inflation, which could lead to the Federal Reserve (Fed) pausing rate cuts indefinitely, or in the worst case scenario even having to raise interest rates at some stage down the line. This led to a gap open to start this week and a sell off to 4 year lows at 0.6087 overnight. However, there has been a rebound as traders await confirmation that the tariffs will be implemented tomorrow, with President Trump due to speak to the leaders of Canada and Mexico later today. This provides us with a chance to take stock of the recent price action and look at the technical levels that may be relevant, dependent on the next moves in AUDUSD across the rest of the week. Technical Update: Gap Assessment The decision by President Trump to impose global tariffs has seen significant volatility for all assets, and within FX not many currencies away from the US Dollar have escaped strong selling pressure. This has resulted in sharp moves at today’s open, leaving several what are called ‘gaps’ within technical analysis. Gaps are when an asset opens away from its previous close, which in the case of AUDUSD is a gap lower between Monday’s 0.6087 opening price and last Friday’s 0.6210 close. There is a common misconception that a Gap must be quickly ‘closed’, in other words, in the case of AUDUSD, the market must rally and trade back to 0.6210, which was Friday’s close, before the next sustainable price movement is seen. This is not true! A gap can remain ‘open’ within price activity for many days, weeks, or even months. In fact, there are 3 types of Gap that can materialise, and it is worth looking at these definitions to attempt to establish where the next directional risks lie for AUDUSD. Breakaway Gap: This is seen when an asset opens significantly higher or lower away from the previous close and often develops at the start of a new trend. This can materialise after a reversal or a continuation pattern in price, and reflects that traders are now looking for a sustained move in the direction of the Gap break. In AUDUSD, it is possible the latest Gap lower forms a Breakaway gap, although this will depend on confirmation from future price trends. It has materialised after a price consolidation between mid-December to late January. This may be an indication of a resumption of the downtrend channel evident in the chart above, a move that has been in place since the September 2024 highs. Continuation Gap: This is a Gap higher or lower in price, and highlights a continuation of the on-going trend, as traders are keen to establish new trades or increase positions, which suggests the trend may remain. For AUDUSD, it is also possible recent price action could suggest a continuation of the downtrend channel, with the risks of tariffs from the US, adding to the negative sentiment, maintaining the channel. Exhaustion Gap: This is mainly seen at the end of a market trend and reflects the final phase of selling/buying pressure within that trend. This can mark the potential end or even reversal of a trend, where buying or selling has been exhausted, with positioning perhaps then skewed too far in the direction of the trend. It is at this point that the potential of a reactive move or reversal in price may be greater. While this is no guarantee of future price action, with the latest Gap lower in AUDUSD coming after a sideways consolidation, we would question if the latest activity suggests an exhaustion Gap, but time and further price action will help us to gauge this further. So, where does this leave the latest AUDUSD activity, and what can it tell us about future potential price moves? Just because a Gap lower has been seen within AUDUSD this morning, doesn’t mean this necessarily fits within the 3 Gap rule. However, we will watch price activity closely from here to suggest where the next directional risks might lie. What if Further Downside is Seen? Having so far rallied from this mornings 0.6087 low, this level may now be viewed as support; buyers have been found here and may well be found again. However, breaks below 0.6087, if seen, may lead to a more extended phase of price weakness. If this is the case, it might in time lead to price weakness towards the next potential support at the lower limits of the downtrend channel, which currently stand at 0.5980. What If Price Strength Emerges? A failure to extend the current weakness may see a recovery in price, but what could be resistance at higher levels? The first resistance level may prove to be the actual Gap left from Friday’s 0.6210 close, where sellers having missed the opportunity to sell at this level previously, may be tempted to do so again. However, breaks above the 0.6210 level may suggest a more extended phase of price recovery, with the next resistance level possibly being, 0.6227, which is the Bollinger mid-average, and above there the 0.6284 level, which marks the current level of the downtrend channel upper extremes. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
Australian dollar extends losses on soft Aussie CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 1.3% this week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6228, down 0.37% on the day.  Australia's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 2.8% in Q3. This was below the market estimate of 2.5% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2023. Electricity prices were sharply lower due to an energy bill rebate and services inflation dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%, its lowest level in three quarters. On a quarterly basis, CPI remained unchanged at 0.2% in Q4, below the market estimate of 0.3%. The Reserved Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q4, lower than 0.8% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Annually, trimmed mean CPI fell to 3.2%, compared to a revised 3.6% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 3.3%. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the RBA will lower rates at the Feb. 18 meeting, with the market pricing in a quarter-point cut at 80%. That would bring the cash rate to 4.10%, its lowest since Oct. 2023. Today's inflation report has added significance as it is the final tier-1 event prior to next month's rate meeting. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate announcement later today, although it would be a massive surprise if the Fed did not maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has cut rate three consecutive times, including a jumb0 half-point chop in September 2024, but the resilient US economy has stalled plans to aggressively lower rates further and currently the Fed is projected to cut rates only once or twice in 2025. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6228. Below, there is support at 0.6204 0.6262 and 0.6286 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Could the Aussie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support. Pivot: 0.6244 1st Support: 0.6176 1st Resistance: 0.6292 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUDUSD, What will hapen in upcoming weeks ?Hello Traders, Happy new year in advance, I Hope you have a great year ahead with your family. let's go for AUDUSD analysis: for upcoming weeks, we'll probably see an upward correction to Specified level at first and then it will start another fall. so with a proper trigger we can open a short position. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
Short
by aminrzb
2