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AUD/USD (OANDA EU Clients)

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD Regain StrengthMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Regain Strength AUD/USD is consolidating gains from the 0.6825 zone. Important Takeaways for AUD USD Analysis Today - The Aussie Dollar rallied above the 0.6735 and 0.6750 resistance levels against the US Dollar. - There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6795 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen. AUD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6700 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6735 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis. There was a close above the 0.6750 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6825 zone. A high was formed near 0.6824 and the pair recently saw a minor pullback. There was a move below the 0.6810 level. The pair declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6764 swing low to the 0.6824 high. On the downside, initial support is near a key bullish trend line at 0.6795. The next major support is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6764 swing low to the 0.6824 high at 0.6780. If there is a downside break below the 0.6780 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6750 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6735. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6810. The first major resistance might be 0.6825. An upside break above the 0.6825 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6880 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.7000 resistance zone. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Aussie H1 | Rising into swing-high resistanceThe Aussie is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 0.6821 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 0.6844 which is a level that sits above a resistance that is identified by a Fibonacci confluence i.e. the 78.% projection and the 127.2% extension levels. Take profit is at 0.6789 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
MY THOUGHTS FOR AUD/USDAUD/USD 15M - I am wanting to take advantage of some downside movement again and I have seen that price has traded into an area of Supply and shown some great rejection to the downside suggesting a potential reversal. We have seen that price has broken a fractal protected low which gives us further confluence of a potential down move, I would like to see price trade us back up and into the area of Supply marked above before taking its next leg lower. This will allow us bears to get in at a good price with a more refined entry and a better risk to reward ratio. It would also help build further confluence for the trade as price would be a setting a lower high. Once price trades us back up and into the Supply Zone I want to see another fractal break this time on the 1M confirming the end of the correction and the start of the next impulse.
Short
by Lukegforex
Over extended trend Very choppy but when it trends it does it smooth with a little consolidation Pairs been buying the whole month as you see by the large bullish candlestick closings 0.6803& 0.67943 buy for the second entry Last weeks entry was 0.673 0.67800/0.67750 support Targets 0.68400&0.68900 Pair might turn from targets but if not, bulls better take out 0.74500 This can pullback as expectation for two weekly candlesticks at least but if not then we know 0.66/0.655 0.715/0.7200&0.73500 with 0.7400(0.7440)
Long
by GCGoldenCircle
$AUDUSD | Sell Trade | Market Exec |Technical Confluences: Price is at Overbought conditions Daily timeframe Price action is close to a resistance trendline and entering an Interest Zone Fundamental Confluences: Very similar to the OANDA:NZDUSD posting I did, all other Central Banks in the DM space wanting to cut rates, it negates off the yield premium that NZD would be getting against USD Market is consolidating after all the USD sell-off and profit-taking mood before NFP is likely to happen AUD being a commodity currency is greatly affected by China's economic performance and it is currently still looking bleak ----- I have also taken a Short position in the FX:AUDUSD trade and monitoring that the Resistance trendline and Interest Zone don't break. Within the Orange Zones, I will look to add position if I see further support that the Resistance will hold -----
Short
by weekendanalyst
AUDUSD H1 I Bearish BreakoutBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 0.6786. Our take profit will be at 0.6750, a pullback support close to 50% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 0.6812, which is a swing-high level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
2
AUDUSD Iron Ore and ChinaThe Australian Dollar seems to be edging higher over the next few quarters. By the end of 2024, we could see AUD/USD hovering around 0.69 and perhaps 0.72 somewhere, most likely late in 2025. But it will be a long road that takes time. One of the biggest problems is the lack of demand for Australia's iron ore, driven by weak global markets that continue to weigh down on the Australian dollar. The slow grind-up in AUD has a lot to do with the U.S. As interest rates between the two economies converge, AUD/USD is finding some support. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has taken on a more hawkish tone since its August meeting, signaling they're not in a rush to cut interest rates, and that's for good reasons. Australia's job market is strong, while inflation is still running hotter than the RBA would like. Despite the positive factors boosting the AUD, it's unlikely for now that the AUD/USD will surpass the 0.70 mark unless there are changes in China. China's economy, which is important for Australian exports such as iron ore, is currently going through a downturn. Indicators such as new home sales and credit growth present a grim outlook, and unless there's an improvement in China, the AUD's price increase may be limited. Here is where it gets interesting. Sentiment around China is already so negative that any further drop isn't likely to drag AUD much lower. The upside probability includes a depreciation of the US dollar and differences in interest rates. If the dollar weakens, the Australian dollar can be stronger than the dollar (relatively), as in the pair AUD/USD. The other big reason AUD has a lot of upside potential is that if Australia's interest rates are higher than other countries, investors might prefer to hold AUD for better returns. Because Australia's interest rates are expected to stay higher for longer than those of other major economies, the AUD is likely to gain value against other major currencies in the G10 by the end of the year. China headwind China is still affecting the Australian dollar. While the Australian Dollar has become less sensitive to China (apart from the impact of the USD), it still affects the AUD/USD exchange rate. A recovery in China's new home sales is crucial for the growth of property-driven commodity imports from Australia. Despite several property easing measures in 2024, new home sales are still significantly lower, and home prices have dropped for the 14th consecutive month. The Australian dollar is more closely connected to metal prices than other commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Iron ore prices have decreased by over 30% year-to-date, and the deteriorating Chinese property market continues to reduce demand for iron ore due to the decline in steel production in China. Weak credit growth in China may lead to lower import demand. China's credit impulse, which usually precedes import growth from Australia, shows a sluggish outlook. This negative view of China's commodity demand is expected to limit the upside for the AUD. China's sentiment measure remains at a historical bearish level. However, it's unlikely to cause a sharp fall either, as the sentiment reflects that bad news is potentially well-priced. Super fund flows Australian retirement funds, known as superannuation funds, may help support the Australian dollar by increasing their hedge ratios on current assets. This hasn't happened yet, but it could be a possibility in the long term if the US dollar keeps falling. There are already signs that investors in other countries are starting to raise their hedge ratios. In Australia, the low hedge ratios on international equity holdings are due to factors other than hedge costs. Asset allocators have kept these hedge ratios low because of the AUD's sensitivity to global risk factors. These industry super funds have increased their hedged assets mainly due to shifts in asset allocation, moving into more defensive asset classes like fixed income, infrastructure, and property, which usually have a higher hedge ratio. Cumulative year-to-date FX return by time zone AUD/USD moved within a narrow range this year, with the current price still below its beginning point. The Australian Dollar's underperformance mainly comes from selling pressure during European trading hours. US and Asian investors have shown a more neutral stance towards the Australian Dollar this year. Most of the Australian Dollar's losses happened during European trading hours, leading to a cumulative return of -2.8%. This negative performance during European hours contrasts with the positive cumulative return of the EUR/USD pair during the same period. With the expectation that the dollar might start to weaken again, AUD/USD, which has lagged behind European trading hours, has a potential for a rally. I will try to buy/long AUDUSD; it's a contrarian trade. AUD/USD realized volatility has bounced back quickly after hitting a low of 6.5 vol (which is in the bottom of the 5th percentile of the past 10 years) at the end of July. I favor OTM call options. The difference in implied volatility between short-term AUD puts, and calls (risk reversal) has widened sharply. So yes, the implied volatility for short-term puts has seen increased demand. The market is more worried about the AUD falling, perhaps a bit too worried. When everyone is hedged to the teeth, markets usually don't fall much, as it creates a synthetic floor in the market.
Long
by RomanoRnr