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Yen and Aussie slide | FX ResearchThe two biggest movers in the FX market on Wednesday have been the Yen and the Australian Dollar, both of which have come under significant pressure. The Yen has been sold on reduced odds of a BoJ rate hike this month, following a local news article suggesting the central bank would likely prefer to wait and carefully assess developments in the U.S. economy and other factors before making any changes to rates. Additionally, various central bankers have indicated that the BoJ should avoid hasty decisions regarding further rate hikes. In Australia, market sentiment has been weak following a softer Australian GDP report and discouraging China Services PMIs. Elsewhere, attention is focused on updates from France, where the market is closely watching the no-confidence vote. A collapse in the government could result in the worst political crisis France has faced in decades. In the UK, dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggested expectations of four rate cuts next year as inflation continues to ease. Looking ahead, key events include an ECB Lagarde speech, U.S. ADP employment data, ISM Services, factory orders, a speech from Fed Chair Powell, and the release of the Fed Beige Book. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Aussie tumbles to 4-month low after soft GDPThe Australian dollar has taken a tumble on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6416, down 1.1% on the day at the time of writing. Earlier, the Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.6407, its lowest level since August 5. Australia’s GDP report was a disappointment, falling short of expectations. GDP rose 0.3% q/q in the third quarter, following three straight quarters of 0.2% growth. This missed the market estimate of 0.5%. Annually, GDP rose 0.8%, below the  Q2 gain of 1% and shy of the market estimate of 1.1%. A key reason why GDP growth has been weak is soft household consumption. Consumers have been battered by high interest  rates and stubborn inflation, and private domestic demand was negligible in the second and third quarters. The soft GDP report was a bust with the markets and sent the Australian dollar tumbling lower. The report is unlikely to cause any changes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has been in a prolonged “higher for longer” stance. The RBA has managed to bring headline inflation within the target of 2%-3%, but remains concerned about underlying inflation, which rose to 3.5% in October. The RBA makes its next rate announcement on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6447. Below, there is support at 0.6382 0.6563 and 0.6613 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
AUD/USD: The Bear is Lurking – A Breakdown in the Making?Hey Forex fam! 🌍✨ Let’s talk about the Aussie Dollar (AUD) versus the Greenback (USD) – the pair that's been stuck in a battle royale of consolidation! 🧐 But here’s the scoop: the bears are sharpening their claws 🐻, and we might just be on the edge of a big breakdown! 🚨 🔍 The Setup: A Symmetrical Triangle (Bearish Edition!) 📉 Chart pattern: For the last few years, AUD/USD has been dancing between two trendlines, forming a symmetrical triangle – a classic consolidation pattern. Think of it like a coiled spring, ready to pop... but in the bearish direction! 👇 👀 Why bearish? 1️⃣ The triangle is following a long-term downtrend. The pair has been sliding since 2013, and this consolidation looks like a classic continuation pattern. 2️⃣ Momentum is fizzling out as we approach the apex of the triangle – suggesting that a downside breakout could be just around the corner. 📉 Levels to Watch: The Bear's Roadmap Support to break: 0.63 – the bottom of the triangle and a critical level to confirm the bearish breakdown. Next bearish targets: 0.60: A psychological barrier. 0.56: The low not seen since 2008 (ouch!). 💡 Why is the Bear in Control? 1️⃣ Fundamentals 📰: With the Federal Reserve still hawkish 💵 and China’s economic recovery slowing 🐢 (a key driver of AUD strength), the Aussie is under pressure. 2️⃣ Risk sentiment 😬: Investors are flocking to safe-havens like the USD in uncertain markets, leaving the AUD vulnerable. ⏳ Timing the Breakdown ⚡ Be ready for action! The pair is sitting right at the edge of the triangle. A daily close below 0.63 could trigger an avalanche of selling pressure. But remember: wait for confirmation – false breakouts can wreck your P&L! 🚨 🔥 Pro Tips for Trading the Breakdown ✅ Trade the breakout: Short AUD/USD once it closes below 0.63, and target 0.60 or lower. ✅ Set stop-losses: Place them slightly above the triangle (~0.64) to protect against fakeouts. ✅ Patience is key: Don’t rush in – let the price action confirm the direction. The Bearish Bottom Line 🐻 AUD/USD is playing a waiting game, but the technicals and fundamentals both scream downtrend continuation. If the bears break through 0.63, get ready for a dive that could take us to 2008 levels! 📉 Are you ready to ride the bear? 🐻💥 Let me know your thoughts below, and as always, trade safe! 💪✨
Short
by EdgeDotForex
AUDUSD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 021. Seasonality: During the first week of December, the USD exhibits bearish momentum, while the AUD shows bullish tendencies. This combination makes AUDUSD overall bullish. 2. COT Report: The AUD's COT RSI and Index are near the top, while the USD is near the bottom, indicating potential overextension. This suggests a bearish outlook for AUDUSD. 3. Fundamental Analysis: LEI The USD Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is increasing, while the AUD LEI is decreasing. Global LEI is also rising, favoring USD strength and adding a bearish tone to AUDUSD. Endogenous Factors These suggest bearish pressure for the AUD and bullish sentiment for the USD, further supporting a bearish bias. Exogenous Factors Exogenous influences, however, indicate an increase in AUDUSD, favoring a bullish trend. 4. Technical Analysis: AUDUSD is forming an ABCD pattern and is currently at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart. Additionally, there is significant resistance on the 4-hour chart, indicating potential bearish pressure from a technical standpoint. Summary The analysis presents mixed signals: seasonality and exogenous factors favor bullishness, while the COT report, LEI trends, endogenous factors, and technical resistance suggest bearish potential. Bias The combined analysis leans toward a short entry for AUDUSD. Trade Plan Entry: 0.64746 SL: 0.65130 TP: 0.64362
Short
by asadamalik
Market Analysis: AUD/USD Under Pressure, Downtrend PersistsMarket Analysis: AUD/USD Under Pressure, Downtrend Persists AUD/USD declined below the 0.6500 and 0.6455 support levels. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today - The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6465 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen. AUD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6530 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6500 support against the US Dollar. The pair even settled below 0.6455 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6430. A low was formed at 0.6407 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6430 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6504 swing high to the 0.6407 low is also near 0.6430. The next major resistance is near a connecting bearish trend line at 0.6465. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6504 swing high to the 0.6407 low, above which the price could rise toward 0.6500. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.6530 resistance. A close above the 0.6530 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6620. On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6405 zone. The next support sits at 0.6380. If there is a downside break below 0.6380, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6350. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Could the Aussie drop from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop tot he 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support. Pivot: 0.6454 1st Support: 0.6407 1st Resistance: 0.6503 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
What’s Flowing: AUDUSD Short (CONCLUSION)The AUDUSD is demonstrating a bearish breakdown, aligning with the current downward momentum. The pair has recently breached key support levels, with selling pressure increasing in the highlighted zones. Key Observations: 1. Price Action: The pair is trading below critical resistance areas, moving toward the lower bounds of the channel. 2. Bearish Momentum: Clear signs of sellers dominating, with the price rejecting upper levels and closing near session lows. Strategy: Traders looking to capitalize on this movement can monitor the following: • Short Entries: Ideal near minor pullbacks into resistance zones around 0.6480–0.6520. • Targets: Downside levels near 0.6440 and below, depending on momentum strength. • Stops: Tight stops above the 0.6520 resistance for effective risk management. Stay cautious of any reversals or macroeconomic events impacting the Australian Dollar. For more refined strategies, reach out for insights tailored to managing AUDUSD flows effectively.
Short
by moneymagnateash
17
AUDUSD InsightHello, Subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - Safe-haven sentiment strengthens due to South Korea's declaration of martial law, driving the yen higher and exerting downward pressure on the dollar. - According to the U.S. Department of Labor's JOLTS report, October job openings (seasonally adjusted) stood at 7.744 million, surpassing market expectations. Some analysts forecast a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, citing the robust labor market. - Australia’s October retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month. This rise is attributed to confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not raise rates further. Analysts predict the RBA will begin cutting rates in May next year. Major Economic Indicators - December 3: U.S. Department of Labor’s JOLTS report - December 5: Fed Chair Powell’s speech - December 6: U.S. November unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll data AUD/USD Chart Analysis Currently, AUD/USD is consolidating around the support level at 0.64000. Future price direction is expected to hinge on this level. - If the support holds, there’s a strong likelihood of an uptrend, with potential gains up to the 0.69000 level. - Conversely, a break below 0.64000 could lead to a decline toward the 0.62000 level. Should unexpected movements occur, we will swiftly establish new strategies to adapt.
Long
by shawntime_academy