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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

AUDUSD - stronger dollar, what consequences will it have for us?The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the support range, we can see the bottom of the downward channel and buy in that range with a suitable risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the support range. According to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, Australia’s retail sales index increased by 0.8% in November compared to the previous month. In October, the index had grown by 0.5% after being revised down from an initial 0.6%. However, this growth fell short of market expectations, which had predicted a 1.0% rise. Additionally, newly released foreign trade data from the ABS on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus reached AUD 7,079 million in November, surpassing the market forecast of AUD 5,750 million and the previous month’s revised figure of AUD 5,670 million (adjusted from AUD 5,953 million). Details of the report indicate that Australian exports rose by 4.8% month-over-month in November, compared to a revised 3.5% in October. Meanwhile, imports grew by 1.7% in November, compared to a flat 0% growth in October (adjusted from 0.1%)Meanwhile, JPMorgan reported that the US dollar has maintained its value contrary to expectations and may continue to do so. However, the bank’s analysts believe further appreciation of the dollar is limited. Key Factors Influencing the US Dollar • Global Growth Divergence and Central Bank Policies: Disparities in global economic growth have led to significant differences in monetary policies. Additionally, the yield gap between US 10-year bonds and those of key trading partners has reached its highest level since 1994. • Sustained Strength of the US Dollar: Despite two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the US dollar appreciated by 7%. The real effective exchange rate (REER) also remains near its historical peak. • Reasons Behind Dollar Strength: 1. Economic Growth Disparity: The US economy grew by 2.7% in 2024, compared to 1.7% growth in other developed markets. 2. Monetary Policy Differences: The limited rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (44 basis points projected for 2025) compared to larger cuts by the European Central Bank (110 basis points) and rate hikes by Japan (47 basis points) have sustained the yield gap. 3. Policy Shifts: New government policies, such as domestic production support, tariffs, and deregulation, could bolster economic growth and strengthen the dollar. • Long-term Constraints on Dollar Strength: 1. The US dollar is historically overvalued (two standard deviations above the 50-year average), indicating limited room for further appreciation. 2. Structural issues, such as the US trade deficit (4.2% of GDP as of September 2024), could eventually pressure the dollar downward. • Impacts of Dollar Strength: 1. Challenges for US-Based Investors: A strong dollar could reduce the performance of international companies and increase export costs. 2. Negative Effects on US Companies with Extensive International Operations: These businesses might suffer due to the dollar’s strength. Assessing risks related to the dollar’s strength is essential for investors. While the dollar may continue to rise in the short term, structural factors and historical trends suggest significant downward pressure in the long term.
Long
by Ali_PSND
AUD/USD Trading Plan Long/Short Swing TradeThe pair has reached a 2 years low (0.6200). There are two scenario's that I will be following. Scenario 1 Long To trigger a long entry there are a few thing I wish to see before I enter go long. 1. Break of the down slopping trend line around 0.6300 level 2. Creation of new HH and HL (New up-slopping trendline) 3. Break of the resistance level at 0.6350 4. re-test of the level or a fundamental catalyst to give the power for a strong break out 5. Cross of the EMA100 For this entry I will target the 0.6550 level and SL bellow the last HL Scenario 2 Short (Following the current down trend) the only additional confirmation I will need for a short entry is the break and re-test of 0.6200 level, also a look on the volume indicators. The level I will target is 0.6000 super old support level(4.5 years) For my Day trade position I will be using the same levels as reference, using more of chart/candle patterns on 1 and 4h hours time frames for 30-40 pips targets. I hope you enjoyed or find useful this information, feedback is always welcome. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
by Don_Bob
Australian dollar falls as core CPI dips lowerThe Australian dollar is lower for a second straight trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6214, down 0.27% at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped as low as 0.60% but has pared much of those losses. Australia's inflation report was a mixed bag in November. Headline inflation rose 2.3% y/y, up from 2.1% in the previous two months and above the market estimate of 2.2%. This marked the highest level since August and was partially driven by a lower electricity rebate for most households. At the same time, the trimmed mean inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred core inflation gauge, fell from 3.5% to 3.2% in November. This reading is close to the upper limit of the RBA's target band of 2%-3% and supports the case for the RBA to join the other major central banks in lowering rates. The RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35% at nine consecutive meetings but is this prolonged pause about to end? In the aftermath of today's inflation report, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point hike in February at over 70%. Australia releases the quarterly inflation report for the fourth quarter on Jan. 29 and if inflation is lower than expected, expectations of a rate cut will likely increase. The US economy has been solid and this week's services and employment indicators headed higher. The ISM Services PMI rose to 54.1 in December, up from 52.1 and above the market estimate of 53.3. JOLT Job Openings jumped to 8.09 million in November and 7.8 million in October. The market is looking ahead to Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is expected to drop to 154 thousand, compared to 227 thousand in November. AUD/USD tested support at 0.6214 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6182 0.6250 and 0.6282 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD Analysis - LONG 👆 In this Chart AUDUSD D1 Timeframe: By Nii_Billions. ❤️This Chart is for AUDUSD market analysis. ❤️Entry, SL, and Target is based off our Strategy. This chart analysis uses multiple timeframes to analyze the market and to help see the bigger picture on the charts. The strategy uses technical and fundamental factors, and market sentiment to predict a BULLISH trend in AUDUSD, with well-defined entry, stop loss, and take profit levels for risk management. 🟢This idea is purely for educational purposes.🟢 ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️
Long
by Nii_Billions
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It's great to see you all. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points: - The U.S. December Services PMI came in at 54.1, exceeding both the previous month’s figure and market expectations. - The U.S. November JOLTS report showed 8.1 million job openings, surpassing the previous figure of 7.84 million and the forecast of 7.73 million. - Strong U.S. employment data and robust service sector indicators are interpreted as supporting the Federal Reserve’s decision to halt monetary easing. Markets expect no further rate cuts until at least March. - Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato stated that the recent forex market has shown unilateral and rapid movements, and appropriate measures will be taken to address excessive volatility. This Week's Major Economic Events: + January 8: U.S. December ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + January 9: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes + January 10: U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate AUD/USD Chart Analysis: After confirming a bottom near the 0.62000 level, the pair rebounded and climbed to the 0.63000 level but failed to break through. While there’s still a possibility of a rise toward the 0.63500 level, a break below the 0.62000 level would fully shift the trend to a bearish outlook, potentially targeting the 0.60000 level. Therefore, it’s crucial to monitor whether the 0.62000 level holds as support or is broken during this move.
Long
by shawntime_academy