AUD-USD | 1 Day | Swing Trading Hello traders, I prepared FX:AUDUSD analysis for you. In my analysis, I detected the patterns on the chart, I would be very happy if you press the like button, thank you.
AUDUSD trade ideas
AUDUSD / SHORTAudusd is currently trending downwards,has made some correction will want to continue in its downward movement.
AUDUSD TARGET ????AUD/USD is looking bullish, with a potential target of 0.65009. This target is supported by a recent analysis from Action Forex, which suggests a target of 0.6500 ¹. Additionally, the pair has stabilized amid US Dollar pressures and domestic economic factors ².
From a technical analysis perspective, the AUD/USD is currently in the first phase of a correction wave, having achieved a local target at 0.6527 ². The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators are also pointing upwards, supporting the bullish view ³.
However, it's essential to keep an eye on key resistance levels, such as 0.6670, which could pose a challenge to the upward movement ⁴.
To maximize your gains, consider setting a take-profit around 0.65009 and a stop-loss below 0.6420 to limit potential losses.
Australian dollar eyes GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6461, down 0.20% on the day at the time of writing.
Australia’s economy is expected to improve in the third quarter, with a market estimate of 0.4% q/q. This follows a disappointing gain of 0.2% in Q2, the weakest growth in five quarters, as household spending declined. On a yearly basis, GDP is expected to tick up to 1.1% compared to 1% in the second quarter.
The Australian economy continues to groan under the weight of high interest rates, which the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented in order to tame high inflation. Now that inflation has come down, there is pressure on the RBA to respond with lower rates. The RBA has become an outlier as most major central banks are in the middle of an easing cycle while the RBA has held rates for over a year.
RBA Governor Bullock has remained hawkish, reiterating that underlying inflation is too high for the RBA’s liking and that a rate hike is not off the table. Headline inflation has fallen to 2.1%, well within the RBA’s target bank of 2%-3%, but the RBA remains concerned about underlying inflation, which accelerated in October to 3.5%, up from 3.2% a month earlier.
The market isn’t buying the warning of higher rates and expects the next rate move to be a cut sometime in mid-2025. That means that consumers will have to grapple with high rates for months, barring an unexpected fall in underlying inflation.
In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he is leaning toward a cut in December but could change his mind if inflation surprised on the upside. The US releases November CPI one week prior to the rate announcement and the release will be a key factor as to whether the Fed cuts or maintains interest rates.
AUD/USD Technical
AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6478 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6514
0.6441 and 0.6405 are the next support levels
AUDUSD Wave Analysis 3 December 2024
- AUDUSD reversed from strong support level 0.6450
- Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6530
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the strong support level 0.6450, which has been reversing the price from the start of August, as can be seen below.
The support level 0.6450 was further strengthened by the nearby lower daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic indicator, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6530 (former minor resistance from November).
Buy audusdAudusd ready to pump again
Weekly oversold pair
Respected the buy trend and weekly strong demand level
Scenario on AUDUSDAt the end of this movement I see a final triangle forming after which an upward movement should occur, but since we still have relatively strong support at 0.63900, it is possible that the price could test this support and then after rejection the price could finally establish an SFP. Another scenario could be that the price rises immediately after the wave is completed, and for now it is just a look, nothing is finalized.
AUDUSD Ahead of the JOLTS DataAUDUSD Ahead of the JOLTS Data
Today, the market's focus is on the US JOLTS data, the only significant event of the day. This data will be closely watched ahead of the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday.
US JOLTS are forecast to remain below 8 million in October, with 7.48M expected versus 7.443M in the previous month.
JOLTS can provide valuable insights into the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation.
✅Technical Analysis:
The price is still accumulating and waiting for the US JOLTS data.
If the price breaks above the current pattern, bullish volume should increase further, and AUDUSD may begin a short-term bullish wave.
If the US JOLTS data remains unchanged, AUDUSD may continue to develop within the current pattern.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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What’s Flowing: AUDUSD Short (CONTD)The AUDUSD is demonstrating a bearish breakdown, aligning with the current downward momentum. The pair has recently breached key support levels, with selling pressure increasing in the highlighted zones.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action: The pair is trading below critical resistance areas, moving toward the lower bounds of the channel.
2. Bearish Momentum: Clear signs of sellers dominating, with the price rejecting upper levels and closing near session lows.
Strategy:
Traders looking to capitalize on this movement can monitor the following:
• Short Entries: Ideal near minor pullbacks into resistance zones around 0.6480–0.6520.
• Targets: Downside levels near 0.6440 and below, depending on momentum strength.
• Stops: Tight stops above the 0.6520 resistance for effective risk management.
Stay cautious of any reversals or macroeconomic events impacting the Australian Dollar. For more refined strategies, reach out for insights tailored to managing AUDUSD flows effectively.
What’s Flowing: AUDUSD Short (CONTD.)The AUDUSD is demonstrating a bearish breakdown, aligning with the current downward momentum. The pair has recently breached key support levels, with selling pressure increasing in the highlighted zones.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action: The pair is trading below critical resistance areas, moving toward the lower bounds of the channel.
2. Bearish Momentum: Clear signs of sellers dominating, with the price rejecting upper levels and closing near session lows.
Strategy:
Traders looking to capitalize on this movement can monitor the following:
• Short Entries: Ideal near minor pullbacks into resistance zones around 0.6480–0.6520.
• Targets: Downside levels near 0.6440 and below, depending on momentum strength.
• Stops: Tight stops above the 0.6520 resistance for effective risk management.
Stay cautious of any reversals or macroeconomic events impacting the Australian Dollar. For more refined strategies, reach out for insights tailored to managing AUDUSD flows effectively.
AUDUSD H1 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6482, which is an overlap resistance and a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6441, a swing low support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6521, an overlap resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUDUSD Buy Opportunity – Triple Bottom PatternDescription:
A bullish reversal setup is emerging on AUDUSD, with the formation of a Triple Bottom pattern. This classic reversal pattern indicates strong support at a key level, signalling a potential shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Pattern Details: Price has tested the same support level three times, creating a clear triple bottom, while failing to break lower, suggesting a buildup of buying pressure.
Breakout Confirmation: A confirmed breakout above the resistance neckline at would validate the pattern and signal the beginning of an upward move.
Entry Strategy: Look to enter a buy position after a breakout and retest of the neckline as support for confirmation.
Targets:
Stop Loss: Place below the lowest point of the triple bottom to minimize risk.
Additional Notes:
Monitor for supporting indicators, such as increased volume or bullish candlestick formations, to confirm the pattern's validity. Keep an eye on macroeconomic data affecting AUD and USD, as these can influence momentum and price action.
Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off.
Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development:
DXY - LONG
EURUSD - SHORT
USDJPY - LONG
GBPJPY - SHORT
AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
What’s Flowing: AUDUSD ShortThe AUDUSD is demonstrating a bearish breakdown, aligning with the current downward momentum. The pair has recently breached key support levels, with selling pressure increasing in the highlighted zones.
Key Observations:
1. Price Action: The pair is trading below critical resistance areas, moving toward the lower bounds of the channel.
2. Bearish Momentum: Clear signs of sellers dominating, with the price rejecting upper levels and closing near session lows.
Strategy:
Traders looking to capitalize on this movement can monitor the following:
• Short Entries: Ideal near minor pullbacks into resistance zones around 0.6480–0.6520.
• Targets: Downside levels near 0.6440 and below, depending on momentum strength.
• Stops: Tight stops above the 0.6520 resistance for effective risk management.
Stay cautious of any reversals or macroeconomic events impacting the Australian Dollar. For more refined strategies, reach out for insights tailored to managing AUDUSD flows effectively.
AUD/USD - BEHEMOTH 1:7 RR Bearish MoveAUD/USD - Taking this towards the monthly range for 300 pips.
HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE
AudUsd rising Liquidity swept + engulfing candle
Simple entry
Dxy showing downside intention so AU should rise
AUDUSD TO 0.653000 TOMORROW??Trading Plan
1. Baseline Scenario :
- Macro-Fundamental Bias Dovish. The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates, with a 66.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This expectation is driven by the Fed's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate to 4.50% - 4.75% and ongoing efforts to support maximum employment and achieve the 2% inflation target.
- Short Term Sentiment Bias : Dovish. Current sentiment is driven by the recent decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.2%, reflecting market expectations of further rate cuts and stability under the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. Additionally, the PCE inflation data aligning with expectations has reinforced the view that the Fed's current policy stance is appropriate.
2. Risk Event Baseline :
- Market Expectations:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 47.7 | Previous: 46.5
- ISM Manufacturing Prices: Forecast: 55.2 | Previous: 54.8
3. Surprise Scenarios :
- Negative Surprise: 7If the ISM Manufacturing PMI or ISM Manufacturing Prices data come in below expectations, it could lead to further USD selling pressure. This scenario supports long positions on AUD/USD, as the AUD is likely to strengthen against a weakening USD.
AUDUSD H1 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is approaching our sell entry at 0.6501, which is a pullback resistance close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6485, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6520, a pullback resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
AUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both CurrenciesAUD/USD: Consolidation Amid Strength in Both Currencies
The AUD/USD pair remained relatively steady last week, consolidating as both the Australian dollar (AUD) and the US dollar (USD) stood out as some of the strongest currencies in the forex market. While both currencies are supported by robust fundamentals, differing factors drive their respective strengths, creating an interesting dynamic for the pair.
Strength in the Australian Dollar
The Australian dollar’s strength stems from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) ability to maintain its current monetary policy. With interest rates at 4.35%, the RBA faces less urgency to implement sharp rate cuts, supported by:
- **GDP Annual Growth Rate:** Australia’s economy is growing at 1.00% annually, showing moderate but steady expansion.
- **Inflation and Employment:** Relatively high inflation and low unemployment provide the central bank room to hold rates steady, balancing growth with price stability.
These factors position the AUD as one of the more stable and attractive currencies among major forex pairs.
The Resilient US Dollar
On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong, bolstered by robust economic data and the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates:
- **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16):** Better-than-expected at 213K, indicating a healthy labor market.
- **S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.):** Surprising to the upside at 57.0, reflecting strong activity in the services sector.
However, additional data from the US this week showed signs of slowing economic activity, adding pressure to the dollar:
- **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2.
- **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Declined to -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4.
- **New Home Sales (Oct):** Slumped to 0.61M, missing expectations of 0.73M.
- **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Dropped to -14, underperforming the forecast of -10.
- **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by only 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.5%.
- **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped sharply to 40.2, well below the expected 44.
While the US economy remains stronger overall, these data points highlight areas of cooling, which tempered the dollar’s momentum.
Seasonality No Longer Supportive
Unlike earlier in the quarter, seasonality now provides less support for AUD/USD. As the year-end approaches, seasonal patterns often shift toward favoring the US dollar due to increased demand for liquidity and a cautious risk environment. This shift adds another layer of resistance for the Australian dollar, which typically performs better during periods of stronger global growth sentiment.
Conclusion
AUD/USD is in a unique position as both currencies are supported by strong fundamentals. While the Australian dollar benefits from steady domestic conditions and inflationary pressures, the US dollar is bolstered by robust economic performance and higher interest rates.
However, signs of cooling in the US economy, as reflected in recent data, have given the AUD a short-term advantage. With seasonality no longer providing support, the pair’s near-term trajectory will depend on further macroeconomic developments and risk sentiment shifts.
What are your thoughts on AUD/USD? Could the Australian dollar take the lead, or will the US dollar maintain its upper hand? Share your insights in the comments!
AUDUSD buydouble bottom formed with manipulative tail at the second one
the price under strong 0.65 level gives a lot of potential to go high
AUD-USD Move Down Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
AUD-USD is moving up
Slowly to retest a horizontal
Resistance level of 0.6550
And after the retest a
Local bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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AUDUSD-Daily Forecast 01/12/2025Dear Traders,
Based on my daily timeframe analysis, the AUDUSD pair is nearing our projected breakout zones. After three tests of the trendline, a breakout is likely. The 0.78-0.86 zone is a high-probability area for initiating long positions, with a potential target at 0.8300."
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Regards,
Alireza!
