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Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar

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AUDUSD trade ideas

AUDUSD touching important Support on Daily ChartThe AUD/USD pair has experienced a notable decline of -7.82% in recent weeks, without any significant recoveries. This drop has brought the price to a key horizontal support area, aligning with the previously identified triple bottom level on the daily chart. Additionally, the price has tested an uptrend line that has provided support since mid-2022. The overlap of the horizontal support and the uptrend line creates a technically significant zone, indicating a potential slowdown in selling pressure. Bullish Scenario If the price breaks above the downtrend line, acting as dynamic resistance, it could signal a shift in market sentiment, allowing buyers to regain control. Fibonacci retracement levels would then serve as potential targets: An entry point could be considered if a candle closes above the downtrend line on the daily chart. The first target may be near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.6605 (approximately 110 pips). The second target could be around the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 0.6670 (about 170 pips). A stop loss might be placed just below the recent low at 0.6395 (around 100 pips). For confirmation of the bullish scenario, the price needs to stay above the dynamic resistance and begin forming higher highs and lows. Bearish Scenario Conversely, if the price falls below the horizontal support at 0.6400, it would create room for further declines, potentially invalidating the triple bottom pattern and indicating a continuation of the downtrend. In this case, the next significant support level would be around 0.6300, with chances of moving even lower. Impact of US Employment Data The upcoming US employment data, particularly the Nonfarm Payroll figures, could significantly influence the AUD/USD pair. Weaker-than-expected results may weaken the US dollar, benefiting the Australian dollar and increasing the likelihood of breaking the downtrend line. Conversely, strong US labor market data could exacerbate selling pressure, pushing AUD/USD lower. Summary The AUD/USD is at a pivotal juncture on the daily chart, with the convergence of horizontal support and an uptrend line suggesting a possible reversal. However, the market's direction will hinge on subsequent technical movements and, crucially, on US economic data that could shift the balance of power. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Long
by Marketscom
AUDUSD: Mixed Fundamental Bias in Dec2024ABOUT GLOBAL LEI and GDP 1. During H2 of 2024, the Global LEI and GDP are INCREASING. 2. The AUD and USD pair was picked because their LEIs were in opposite direction. 3. Good Golbal GDP would mean we are in RISK-ON situation so good for AUD. AUDUSD: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY LEI DECREASING : AUD LEI are decreasing but USD LEI are increasing. Overal LEI BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD. ENDO DECREASING : AUDUSD collective ENDO score is DECREASING from May24. This means AUD is weakening and USD is strengthening. ENDO BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD. EXOs MIX INCREASING : EXOs of AUD are slowly IMPROVING but overall AUDUSD EXO Bias is MIX INCREASING mainly because of AUD GDP improvement and IR-Diff increase. EXO BULLISH BIAS FOR AUDUSD. EXO+LEI DECREASING: FINAL SCORE: BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD COT REPORT ANALYSIS As per overall COT analysis, GBBUSD is SHORT opportunity in Dec2024. BIAS BEARISH for AUDUSD AUDUSD: SEASONAL ANALYSIS 1. First week of DEC: 2-6 Dec: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence SIDEWAYS to BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD (Negative USD News expected) 2. 2nd to 3rd Week of DEC: 9-17 DEC: AUD is BEARISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 3. 3rd to 4th Week of DEC: 18-31 DEC: AUD is BULLISH and USD is BEARISH. Hence BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD NEWS EVENTS 1.USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4) 2.USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4) 3. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4) 3. AUD: GDP q/q: 04-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4) 4. USD: Unemployment Rate: 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 5. AUD: Interest Rate News: 10-Dec-24 (7:30 AM GMT+4) 6. USD: CPI: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 7. AUD: Unemployment Rate: 12-Dec-24 (4:30 AM GMT+4) 8. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 9. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) 10. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4) 11. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4) 15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4) FUNDAMENTAL TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON AUDUSD - MIXED (Rely on Tech Analysis) 1. As per ENDOs and LEIs, BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 2. As per EXOs BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD 3. "Summary 3 Score" also giving MIX BIAS indication. 4. Conditionaing Bias: Montly BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD. 5. COT Analysis: BEARISH BIAS for AUDUSD 6. 1st Week of Dec SEASONALS: BULLISH BIAS for AUDUSD. FINAL BIAS: Because of MIXED Fundamental signals, reply on SEASONALITY and TECHNICAL BIAS, mapped with key news dates. The Interest Rate Announcements on 10th (AUD) and 18th (USD) will have a major impact on AUDUSD. 1. On 10th no change in AUD rate expected 2. On 18th, USD rate is expected to DECREASE, hence could be Bullish for AUDUSD DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: BEARISH as per DOW. DIVERGENCE: Strong BULLISH divergence, providing confluence with Fund Analysis for bullish reveral. Volume Div: No HEIKIN-ASHI: BEARISH confirmed till Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360. PATTERN: ABCD BULLISH Reversal Pattern seen with D point around strong support of 0.6360 FIB: N/A S&R: Strong Weekly/Monthly support of 0.6360 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this support will be tested by the time USA Interest rate announcement and then BULLISH reversal could be seen. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement. Scho-RSI: Heading downward signalling BEARISH movement till support of 0.6360. DAILY TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation BUY STOP: 0.645, SL: 0.62690, TP1: 0.65255 (Around then FIB level 23.60%) TP2: 0.66050 (Around then FIB level 38.20%) 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: BEARISH as per DOW. DIVERGENCE: BULLISH Div present but waiting to be played. HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed. FIB: Heading toward Fib Level 0 @ 0.63995 S&R: Support at 0.63995 and current price is 0.642. High probability that this Support will be broken and strong reveral will happen from 0.6360. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong BEARISH movement. Scho-RSI: Again turning down 4H TRADE PLAY: Wait for BULLISH REVERSAL Confirmation BUY STOP: 0.642, SL: 0.62690, TP1: 0.64316 (Around then FIB level 23.60%) TP2: 0.6455 (Around then FIB level 38.20%) 1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TREND: Strong BEARISH DIVERGENCE: No, hence BEARISH moement will continue. HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed. FIB: BEARISH retracement happened from 38.2% and then bearish movement happening S&R: Resistance at 0.6455 is respected arounf FIB lev el 38.2%. EMA: Price Below 200 EMA ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement. Scho-RSI: Below 20 and aslong as it will stay there, BEARISH movement is confirmed 1H TRADE PLAY: BEARISH BIAS Entry: 0.64218, SL: 0.64593, TP1: 0.6384, RR:1.14 TP2: 0.6347
by haroonraees
AUD/USD Sell - 15 mins Idea Title: AUD/USD Short Position: Rising Wedge Breakdown and Liquidity Targeting Market Context: The AUD/USD is showing signs of bearish momentum following a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals a reversal or continuation of bearish trends. The pair is reacting to a significant resistance zone above 0.64500 and appears poised to target lower liquidity levels near the daily support. Trade Setup Details: Entry: 0.64533 Stop Loss (SL): 0.64270 Take Profit (TP): 0.64063 Technical Analysis: Rising Wedge Breakdown: The price action formed a rising wedge pattern, indicating exhaustion of the bullish move. A clean breakout to the downside confirms bearish intent. Key Levels: Resistance: Price faced rejection from the 1/3ADR+ zone, confirming strong selling pressure around 0.64550. Support Target: The first target aligns with the AMR- level at 0.64063, which serves as a liquidity pool and demand zone. Bearish Divergence: Momentum indicators suggest divergence during the final wedge highs, adding confidence to the bearish setup. Risk-to-Reward (R:R): The trade offers an attractive R:R ratio, capitalizing on a retracement towards the lower support zone. Trade Justification: The rejection from the resistance zone coincided with the broader downtrend, making the short trade a high-probability setup. Liquidity below 0.64100, along with the AMR- level at 0.64063, provides a clear target for bears to aim for. Trading Plan: Entry Confirmation: Ensure the price continues to respect the resistance zone around 0.64500, without invalidating the setup. Risk Management: Keep the stop loss tight at 0.64270, just above the recent structure high, to minimize risk in case of reversal. Exit Strategy: Take profit at 0.64063, near the key liquidity pool and demand zone, ensuring a disciplined exit. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
Short
by tamrobert20
FAKEOUT WATCHOUT FOR BULLISH BREAKOUTOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis. Based on our view the price will rise to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you. Please support our analysis with a like or comment! Let’s master the market together. Please share your thoughts and encourage us to do more by liking this idea.
Long
by dkb14246
AUDUSD - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈AUDUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the rising flat channel in blue. Moreover, it is rejecting a strong support in green. 🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the support zone and lower trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #AUDUSD is around the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
19
Bullish Divergence on AUD/USD—Key Resistance Ahead!OANDA:AUDUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis After analyzing the chart, we observed that the price found strong support at 0.64698, accompanied by a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Following the Change of Character, the price is likely to move toward the Major Resistance at 0.65913. Key Levels: • Ultimate Support: 0.64698 • Major Resistance: 0.65913 • Ultimate Resistance: 0.67138 Reminder: Consistently following your risk management strategy is crucial for long-term trading success. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly. Happy trading!
Long
by SpicyPips
Audusd AUD/USD reacts little to better-than-expected Australian Goods Trade Balance data and remains in a range above 0.6400 early Thursday. Rising bets for an early RBA rate cut cap the Aussie's upside amid China's economic woes and US-Sino trade war fears. Eyes turn to US data, FedspeakThe AUD/USD pair dives more than 1% to near the round-level support of 0.6400 in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie pair plummets as the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been hit hard by weaker-than-projected domestic output data for the third quarter of this yearThe Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Australian economy surprisingly expanded at a slower-than-expected pace of 0.8% compared to the same quarter of the previous year against the 1% growth seen in the previous quarter of this year. Economists estimated the annualized Q3 GDP growth of 1.1%. On a quarterly basis, the Australian economy expanded by 0.3%, slower than expectations of 0.4% but faster than the former reading of 0.2%
Short
by KingForex078
Yen and Aussie slide | FX ResearchThe two biggest movers in the FX market on Wednesday have been the Yen and the Australian Dollar, both of which have come under significant pressure. The Yen has been sold on reduced odds of a BoJ rate hike this month, following a local news article suggesting the central bank would likely prefer to wait and carefully assess developments in the U.S. economy and other factors before making any changes to rates. Additionally, various central bankers have indicated that the BoJ should avoid hasty decisions regarding further rate hikes. In Australia, market sentiment has been weak following a softer Australian GDP report and discouraging China Services PMIs. Elsewhere, attention is focused on updates from France, where the market is closely watching the no-confidence vote. A collapse in the government could result in the worst political crisis France has faced in decades. In the UK, dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey suggested expectations of four rate cuts next year as inflation continues to ease. Looking ahead, key events include an ECB Lagarde speech, U.S. ADP employment data, ISM Services, factory orders, a speech from Fed Chair Powell, and the release of the Fed Beige Book. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets