AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
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Key Points
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.10%, citing uncertainties in leading economic indicators, including the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies. Markets expect the RBA to cut rates in May.
- The Washington Post reported that White House staff have drafted a proposal to impose a 20% tariff on most U.S. imports.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the European Union has the power to negotiate with the U.S. and to retaliate if necessary.
- The March ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.0, indicating that the U.S. manufacturing sector has entered a contraction phase. Meanwhile, the February JOLTS Job Openings report showed 7.57 million job openings, missing market expectations, suggesting a gradual slowdown in the labor market. These two indicators hint at the formation of stagflation in the U.S. economy.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 2: U.S. March ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
+ April 4: U.S. March Nonfarm Payrolls, March Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
With the market frozen ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs, AUDUSD remains largely range-bound. Technically, a short-term rise to 0.63500 is likely, followed by a decline toward 0.60000. However, given potential variables, a breakout above 0.63500 is possible, which could extend gains toward 0.66000.
