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AUDUSD trade ideas

RBA Keeps Cash Rate on Hold at 4.35%In its final interest rate decision of the year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it would keep the Cash Rate on hold at 4.35% for a ninth consecutive meeting; no surprises there and no relief for Aussies ahead of the Christmas break as rates remain at 13-year highs. While many global central banks have kicked off their easing policy, the RBA will likely remain on hold until the latter part of the first half of next year. The RBA Board underlined that inflationary pressures remain too high. This is a key issue for the RBA; it wants to be sure that it has done enough to slow the economy to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target, and when ‘confident’ enough, the central bank will begin to ease policy. Importantly, according to the RBA’s rate statement, their confidence is clearly increasing, which is something investors have been looking for the central bank to signal. Inflation and Jobs Data Eyed According to October’s release, the monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) indicator is just north of 2.0% at 2.1%, comfortably within the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. While the monthly CPI indicator can be market-moving, it can also be volatile and not provide the whole picture. Consequently, quarterly figures remain key, with the next release in January for Q4 24. Inflation remained somewhat elevated for the Australian economy at 2.8% in Q3 24, just within the upper range of the RBA’s inflation band. Still, the Trimmed Mean CPI inflation data remains outside this range at 3.5% (according to Q3 24 data, down from 4.0% in Q2 24), with Services inflation also remaining elevated at 4.6%, up from 4.5%. The RBA Board will look for more progress on inflation in the quarterly measures. The labour market remains strong, which is likely one of the reasons why the RBA is cautious about cutting interest rates. The timing of any rate cuts by the central bank will largely depend on how the job market evolves in 2025. We will have Australian jobs data for November released on Thursday at 12:30 am GMT. The unemployment rate is expected to increase slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in October. Despite the RBA forecasting that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, it has remained at 4.0% for most of the year. Employment is expected to gain 25,500 new jobs, following a gain of nearly 16,000 in the previous period. Personally, I believe that if the RBA identifies weaknesses in the job market before the next rate decision, it could tilt the scale in favour of the central bank deciding to cut rates. Regarding GDP growth figures (Gross Domestic Product), economic activity has fallen short of market expectations for several quarters and has been limping since early 2023. The latest Q3 24 GDP figures released last week showed economic activity grew by 0.3%, a touch higher than 0.2% in Q2 24. RBA Rate Cut in February? Following the interest rate decision, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock took to the microphone and underlined that inflation remains too high. However, she noted that the Board is gaining confidence that inflation is slowing but cautioned that ‘risks remain’, which echoes a slightly dovish stance. Further to this, the change in the language of the rate statement regarding removing the word ‘vigilant’ and the phrase ‘not ruling anything in or out’ was deliberate, according to the RBA Governor, emphasising a dovish tone to today’s meeting. The next policy meeting is on 18 February, and investors are currently pricing in about a 50/50 chance (14 basis points of cuts priced in) on whether we’ll see a 25 bp cut or another no-change decision. As of writing, the April meeting is fully priced for a 25 bp reduction (30 bps priced in). So, markets expect the RBA to cut in the first half of next year. With a full December quarter’s worth of inflation figures and another employment report to be published in early January 2025, these will be key data points going forward – both for the RBA in determining whether to cut rates or not, as well as from a traders’ perspective in terms of trade planning for either trading into or out of the events. AUD/USD Venturing South of Pattern Support Month to date, the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) is down nearly 2.0% and recently ventured south of major pattern support (a symmetrical triangle extended from US$0.8007 and US$0.5506), indicating further bearish sentiment. However, while this will likely prompt follow-through selling, some may hold back based on the Relative Strength Index yet to cross below trendline support, taken from the low of 29.46. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Short
by FPMarkets
AUDUSD - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level higher. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
4
Looking at bullish set upAUD/USD bounced sharply and revisited the 0.6470 zone. The US Dollar kept a vacillating tone at the beginning of the week. The RBA is expected to keep its OCR unchanged on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) traded in an irresolute fashion on Monday, gyrating around the key 106.00 zone when gauged by the Dollar Index (DXY). Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to regain strong balance, staging a pronounced rebound to the 0.6470 region after bottoming out near 0.6380 during early trade.
by EZIO-FX
2
AUDUSD 1DAYAUDUSD Daily Analysis The AUDUSD pair is trading near a significant support level on the daily chart, where buyers have historically stepped in to drive prices higher. This key zone suggests a potential bullish reversal, making it an attractive area for a buy opportunity. Technical Outlook: Pattern: Support Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position near the support level after confirming bullish price action signals. Traders should monitor for reversal patterns such as a bullish engulfing candlestick or indicators like RSI signaling oversold conditions. Proper risk management is essential, with stop-loss orders placed below the support level to guard against potential breakdowns. Targets can be set at the next resistance levels for potential profit.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
1
AUDUSD→At Critical Support Level's Could It Drop Further ?OrNot!FX:AUDUSD The AUD/USD chart reveals that since late October, the pair has been in a downtrend. This is largely driven by monetary policy differences: while the Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has yet to initiate rate reductions. Tomorrow, the RBA will announce its decision on interest rates. All 44 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the rate to remain at 4.35%, given persistently high core inflation (3.5%) and low unemployment. Previously, experts forecasted rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025. However, most now anticipate reductions no earlier than the second quarter, as the RBA focuses on bringing inflation back to its 2–3% target range.
by MarketAnalyzar
China headlines help AUD/USD hold critical support. The AUDUSD finished higher o/n at .6440 (+0.80%) boosted by reports that China will increase support for its economy. We suspect yesterdays China headlines help the AUD/USD remain above critical multi month support at .6370/50 for now, despite the likelihood of a dovish pivot this afternoon from the RBA as outlined in the article ⬇️ The AUD/USD would need to rebound above resistance at .6550 to suggest that a stronger recovery can occur. www.ig.com
by IG_com
1
AUDUSD: UT Curve Analysis (20D)OVERVIEW The analysis of AUDUSD combines multi-timeframe technical insights, oscillator, and moving average indicators. This report serves to aid both strategic and tactical decision-making by position, swing, and day traders. Multi-Timeframe Price Analysis: Position (Wealth) Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.55086 to Pivot High @ 1.10805 Trend: Long-term uptrend Treatment: Quarternary; used to align with long-term investment goals. Long-Term Swing Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.55086 to Pivot High @ 0.95052 Trend: Long-term uptrend Treatment: Tertiary; aligns with monthly chart trends and broader market sentiment. Swing Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.61702 to Pivot High @ 0.80072 Trend: Early stages of an uptrend Key Levels: TP4 @ 0.7639 TP1 @ 0.6776 BLO1 @ 0.6457 BLO2 @ 0.6262 Treatment: Primary; expected to host the most significant price action. Day Traders: Range: Pivot Low @ 0.61702 to Pivot High @ 0.71578 Trend: Beginning of the uptrend Treatment: Secondary; used for daily volatility trades. RECOMMENDATIONS: Strategic Trading: Position traders should monitor the 0.90000–1.10000 range for long-term buy opportunities, but ONLY if they are aligned with economic fundamentals. Long-term swing traders can set buy limits around 0.65000 and aim for TP before Resistance around 0.80000. Tactical Trading: Swing traders should prioritize 0.6457 (BLO1) and 0.6776 (TP1) for buy orders, taking advantage of primary range volatility. Day traders can exploit intraday support at 0.6262 and resistance around 0.71578.
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
AUDUSD Bearish Setup in ProgressAUDUSD has been in a steady downtrend and recently formed a potential supply zone (purple area) around $0.64600. Price action suggests a bearish reaction at this zone, with the potential for lower highs before a continuation to the downside. Liquidity below $0.64000 is the next probable target as sellers dominate the market. The setup favors waiting for price to tap into the supply zone, showing clear rejection signs before executing shorts. A break below recent lows would confirm bearish momentum, with further downside targets in the $0.64000.
Short
by TopGBanks
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
The AUDUSD: look this week for 1H chart to make a double bottom This down move is exhausted. Let the pair rest, and go make a 1,2,3 bottom. A one-two-three bottom (as labeled) is like a double bottom but the bottoms don't have to be exactly even. That is why I said 1,2,3 bottom. You can think of it as a double bottom. At the end of the double bottom, go long. All of this will take several days this week to develop. Be patient and you can track the progress of the double bottom, but get ready for a up move after the double bottom.
Long
by SAILBOATEVANMOSERS