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Australian Dollar holds up after RBA rate cut | FX ResearchEarlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk sentiment has been improving in recent days due to an alleviation of stress around tariffs and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Key standouts on Tuesday's calendar include UK employment data, a speech from BOE Governor Bailey, German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment, Canada inflation data, New York Empire manufacturing, NAHB housing, and Fed speak. That's all for now. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6304 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6254 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.6375 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
AUD: A hawkish cut by the RBAThe Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates for the first time in four years this morning, matching consensus and market expectations. The 25bp reduction was accompanied by some rather hawkish remarks by Governor Michele Bullock, both in the statement and in the press conference. Bullock seemed to focus on pushing back against the dovish repricing in the AUD curve, reiterating that the focus remains firmly on inflation risk. That approach is in contrast with those of other developed central banks (including the neighbouring Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which should cut 50bp this week) which have shifted towards growth concerns. Markets are pricing just under two cuts in Australia by the end of 2025, while we have a slightly more dovish forecast with one cut per quarter (three in total). Bullock’s cautious tone on further easing has allowed AUD to counter the USD rebound this morning. That said, we doubt markets are ready to shift expectations to only one RBA cut this year, and AUD’s high exposure to the trade story and risk sentiment may quickly overcome any short-term benefits from the RBA’s tone today. We still think a return to 0.62 in AUD/USD is warranted by the end of March, with further downside risks in the second and third quarters when US protectionism may intensify.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
AUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA DecisionAUD/USD Trades Near Year’s High After RBA Decision Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) eased monetary policy, cutting the interest rate from 4.35% to 4.10%, according to Forex Factory. As reported by Reuters: → This marks the first easing since the 2020 pandemic; → RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that market expectations for two more cuts this year are “ambitious”; → The bank’s leadership remains cautious about further easing prospects. While analysts had accurately predicted the February rate cut, AUD/USD saw volatility without a significant move, possibly because market participants are more focused on Trump’s tariff plans, which could impact global trade and Forex markets. Technical Analysis of AUD/USD Today Since mid-December, the AUD/USD pair has mostly traded within the 0.6200–0.6300 range, except for early February’s sharp drop when Trump’s tariff policies shook currency markets. However, demand appears resilient: → After plunging to around 0.6100, the price quickly rebounded into the range; → Arrows highlight rapid recoveries after short-term dips; → A blue ascending trend channel is forming on the chart. These factors suggest growing appeal for the Australian dollar, with the 0.6300 level potentially acting as support going forward. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
AUDUSD Bullish AUD/USD has successfully broken a strong resistance level, signaling bullish momentum. After the breakout, we may see a retracement to the previous resistance area, which could now act as support before the next leg up. If buyers continue stepping in, further upside movement is expected. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Support: Retesting the previous resistance zone ✅ Bullish Confirmation: Holding above support could fuel further upside Always follow proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering trades
Long
by Pipsview_Analysis
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.6301 1st Support: 0.6259 1st Resistance: 0.6376 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
AUD: a hawkish cut from the RBA?We continue to expect the RBA to start its rate cutting cycle with a hawkish 25bp rate cut on Tuesday. Australian trimmed mean inflation surprised the central bank 20bp to the downside coming out at 3.2% YoY in Q4. On a 6M annualised basis, trimmed mean inflation is running close to the centre of the central bank’s 2-3% target band. Household consumption appears to be picking up following income tax cuts and the introduction of the government’s cost-of-living measures, but recent retail sales have been given a boost by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and consumption likely remains soft. While Australia’s labour market remains tight with an unemployment rate of 4%, the RBA will likely lower its estimate of NAIRU from 4.25% to around 4% given that wage inflation is coming off despite the stubbornly low unemployment rate. The central bank should also lower its inflation and growth forecasts to justify its rate cut. While the RBA may want to hold off for another quarterly inflation print to be more confident, inflation is coming sustainably back within its 2-3% target band, waiting until after the Q1 inflation data on 30 April would mean the central bank would be very likely be cutting rates during a Federal election. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will manage households’ expectations, however, in her press conference and parliamentary committee hearing later this week. She will point to a likely shallow rate cutting cycle for several reasons. First, rental inflation while coming lower as immigration slows is coming off high levels. Construction of rental properties is occurring at a snail’s pace. Second, fiscal policy will continue working against monetary policy during an election year, the ALP and opposition Liberal-National Party coalition (LNP) have already pledged over AUD10bn in additional spending; and the official election campaign has not even started. Third, trade frictions and tariffs generated by the administration of President Donald Trump will add to international inflation pressures in Australia. The US economy also remains robust and there is a growing risk of the FOMC not cutting rates any further. A strong US economy is good news for the Australian economy and will also limit RBA rate cuts. At 4.35%, the RBA’s cash rate is not far above the RBA’s central estimate of neutral of around 3.50%. With the market about 85% priced for a 25bp cut by the RBA this week, the kneejerk reaction in the AUD will be lower, but then the focus will be on Bullock’s rhetoric. We continue to look for just 75-100 bp worth of rate cuts by the RBA in 2025 and this is in line with current market pricing. Australian wages and labour market data out later in the week hold further volatility for the AUD.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
AUDUSDHere's how the anticipated Australian economic data releases may affect the AUD/USD trade directional bias today by 4;30am Key Data Releases and Potential Impacts: (1)Cash Rate (Forecast 4.10%, Previous 4.35%): Lower than Forecast (AUD Negative): If the actual cash rate is lower than the forecast of 4.10%, it would indicate a more dovish stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), suggesting concerns about economic growth. This would likely weaken the AUD, leading to a potential decline in the AUD/USD. As Expected (Neutral to Slightly AUD Negative): If the cash rate matches the forecast of 4.10%, the impact might be neutral, but the AUD could still face some downward pressure because it confirms the RBA is easing monetary policy. Higher than Forecast (AUD Positive): An unexpected hold or increase in the cash rate would signal a hawkish RBA, strengthening the AUD and potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD. (2)RBA Monetary Policy Statement & RBA Rate Statement: These statements provide context and reasoning behind the RBA's interest rate decisions and offer insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy intentions. Dovish Statements (AUD Negative): If the statements express concerns about economic growth, highlight downside risks, or signal further rate cuts, the AUD would likely weaken, pushing the AUD/USD lower. Hawkish Statements (AUD Positive): If the statements convey confidence in the economy, emphasize inflation control, or suggest a willingness to raise rates if needed, the AUD would likely strengthen, potentially leading to an increase in the AUD/USD. (3)Factors Influencing AUD/USD Directional Bias: Interest Rate Differentials: The difference between the interest rates set by the RBA and the US Federal Reserve influences the AUD/USD. If the Federal Reserve were to increase the interest rate, money may flow into the US strengthening the US dollar, and consequently weakening the AUD/USD rate. (4)US Economic Data and Fed Policy: The anticipation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more cautious stance on cutting interest rates going forward. (5)China's Economic Conditions: China's weaker-than-expected reports fuel global growth concerns and limit the demand of "risk" currencies like the Aussie. (6)Commodity Prices: AUD/USD is behaving like a cyclical risk asset, showing relationships with crude oil Potential Scenarios and Trade Implications: Dovish RBA, Hawkish Fed: This scenario could create a bearish backdrop for AUD/USD. Technical Considerations: AUD/USD is finding support from a major area of interest at 0.61451 support,it may see enough demand to revisit the the supply roof aand if it breaks it to the moon,
Short
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 17 February 2025 - AUDUSD broke the resistance zone - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6400 AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance zone between the key resistance level 0.6320 (which stopped the previous minor correction iv) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the c-wave of the active ABC correction 2. AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6400 (former strong support from April and August of 2024).
Long
by FxProGlobal
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar Strengthens Ahead of RBA DesicionThe Australian dollar has been rising, gaining around 1.5% over the past three sessions against the U.S. dollar. The current bullish movement continues as the market awaits the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision in the coming hours. The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points , bringing the new rate to 4.1%. However, the market has already priced in this decision, as expectations for a rate cut have been consistent for several days. This has allowed upward momentum to persist, as any bearish reaction to the RBA's move may have already been absorbed into the price. Additionally, as the trade war between the U.S. and China escalates, Australia's economic ties with China have strengthened, boosting confidence in the region and supporting a bullish outlook for the Australian dollar. Breakout from Sideways Range Until recently, AUD/USD had been trading within a key range, with resistance at 0.62923 and support at 0.61929. But the recent bullish move has broken through this resistance, leading to stronger buying pressure in the short term. As long as price remains above the upper boundary of this range, the Australian dollar could maintain its upward momentum in the near term. RSI Indicator: Overbought Signals? Not everything is bullish, as the RSI indicator is now approaching 70, the overbought zone. If the RSI remains above this level for the next few sessions, it could signal an imbalance between buyers and sellers, as well as the potential for short-term selling corrections. Key Levels to Watch: 0.61929 – Distant Support: Lower boundary of the previous range. Frequent price oscillations at this level could revive the previous downtrend seen since September 2024. 0.62923 – Key Support: Aligns with the Ichimoku Cloud barrier and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). A tentative level where short-term bearish corrections could occur. 0.64323 – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If the bullish bias pushes price toward this level, it could signal the beginning of a stronger uptrend in the short term. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 17 - 21 FebruaryMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rates, UK and Canada’s Inflation, Metals, Earnings Reports In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode: - RBA Interest Rate Decision - Canada’s Inflation Rate - UK Inflation Rate - Precious Metals Price Fluctuations - Corporate Earnings Statements Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
by FXOpen
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