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AUDUSD trade ideas

#AUDUSD 4H 📉#AUDUSD 4H Sell Setup – Bearish Shift in Play AUDUSD has tapped into buy-side liquidity at 0.65713, triggering a sharp rejection and signaling a potential Market Structure Reversal (MSR). Price is now approaching a key Order Block (OB) zone, aligning with prevailing bearish order flow. 🔻 Sell Zone: 0.65400 – 0.65000 ❌ Stop Loss: Above 0.65713 (Liquidity Level) 🎯 Target: 0.6432 This setup reflects strong rejection from premium pricing and confirmation of bearish momentum. Smart money dynamics suggest a continuation to the downside as price respects resistance and structure.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
AUDUSD Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 0.6427 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 0.6462 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Australia's CPI slows, raising rate cut expectationsThe Australian dollar is showing limited movement on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6495, up 0.08% on the day. Australia's inflation rate headed lower in May. Headline CPI rose 2.1%, after gains of 2.4% in the previous three months. This was below the market estimate of 2.3%. Monthly, CPI eased to 0.4%, driven by lower petrol and housing costs. The key core CPI indicator, annual trimmed mean inflation, also dropped sharply, to 2.4% from 2.8%, its lowest level since Nov. 2021. The soft inflation report has boosted the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower rates at the July meeting. The markets have priced in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut, up from 81% prior to the inflation release. The markets have priced in three more rate cuts this year, following rate cuts in February and May. The markets are counting on the RBA to be dovish in the second half of 2025. With inflation not only within the RBA's target of 2-3% but also falling, the markets expect that the RBA will be keen to lower rates in order to preserve economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Powell testified before a House Committee on Tuesday and had a cautious message for lawmakers. Powell said that the Fed was committed to keeping inflation contained and that the Fed planned to maintain rates until the impact of tariffs on inflation was more clear and reiterated that inflation still remained above the Fed's 2% target. Powell has faced blistering criticism from President Trump for not lowering rates. In his testimony, Powell said that Trump's attacks were "having no effects" on Fed policy. AUD/USD pushed above resistance at 1.3726 and is testing resistance at 1.3727. Above, there is resistance at 1.3750 1.3713 and 1.3702 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Precision Rejection: AUD/USD Short in MotionBias: Bearish Date: June 23, 2025 Timeframe: 1-Hour ⸻ Market Context: AUD/USD has retraced back into a 1H supply zone between 0.6480–0.6500, where strong institutional selling occurred previously. The recent bounce from 0.6372 appears corrective, driven by short-term USD softness, but the broader structure remains bearish. This current move is setting up for a liquidity grab above recent highs, creating the ideal conditions for a lower high rejection and a possible selloff back into a large imbalance zone resting below. This area holds: • Buy stops from breakout traders • Trapped long entries from the recent retracement • Institutional sell-side liquidity • A visible imbalance gap down to the 0.61143 region, waiting to be filled ⸻ My Analysis and Bias: I believe AUD/USD is setting up for a liquidity sweep above 0.6480, followed by a sharp rejection. After confirming a lower high and bearish momentum, I’m expecting a clean break of 0.6430 support and continuation toward the imbalance fill at 0.61143. This is a smart money setup: 1. Price taps into supply and rejects 2. A lower high forms after sweep 3. Bearish structure breaks below 0.6430 4. Price fills imbalance resting around 0.61143 ⸻ Entry Plan: • Primary Entry: 0.6482–0.6485 after rejection from supply • Confirmation Tools: Rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle, or break of minor structure • Stop Loss: Above 0.6517 (protective stop above liquidity sweep zone) ⸻ Take Profit Levels: • TP1: 0.6430 – Breaker structure • TP2: 0.6380 – Major support • TP3: 0.6300 – Secondary liquidity pool • TP4: 0.61143 – Imbalance fill (final target) ⸻ Execution Plan Summary: • Entry: 0.6482 after rejection or clear confirmation • SL: ~0.6517 • TPs: 0.6430 → 0.6380 → 0.6300 → 0.61143 • Risk/Reward: ~10:1 potential based on charted range ⸻ Final Thoughts: “This is a premium setup built around smart money concepts. Market structure, supply rejection, and imbalance alignment are all here. Once confirmation hits, I’ll execute — no guessing. Trade simple. Live lavish.”
Short
by QuilLavish
AUDUSDAUD/USD: 10-Year Bond Yields, Interest Rate Differential, UIP, and Carry Trade 1. Current Rates and Yield Differential Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) Differential (AUD - USD) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.21% 4.38% -0.17% (-17 bps) Policy Interest Rate 3.85% 4.25%–4.50% -0.40% to -0.65% Australia's 10-year yield eased to 4.21% on June 20, 2025, after RBA rate cuts. The US 10-year yield held at 4.38% amid Fed policy stability. The negative yield spread (-17 bps) reflects Australia's lower long-term rates relative to the US. 2. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP Theory: Predicts that currency exchange rates should adjust to offset interest rate differentials. For AUD/USD: This implies the AUD should depreciate against the USD to neutralize the rate advantage. Empirical Reality: UIP often fails short-term. Since 2008, higher-yield currencies (like USD) frequently appreciate, contradicting UIP. 3. Carry Trade Dynamics Strategy: Borrow AUD at 3.85% and invest in USD at 4.38% for a positive carry of +0.53%. Risks: AUD appreciation risk: Economists forecast AUD/USD rising to 0.65–0.67 by end-2025, potentially eroding gains. Volatility: US tariff policies and global trade uncertainty amplify currency swings. 4. Market Outlook AUD Drivers: RBA rate cuts (3.85%) and commodity dependence may limit AUD strength despite forecasts. USD Drivers: Fed's "higher for longer" stance (4.25%–4.50%) supports USD yield appeal. Carry Viability: The USD-funded carry (borrow AUD → invest USD) offers modest gains but requires hedging against AUD appreciation risks. Key Relationships Summary Concept AUD/USD Implication Current Status Yield Spread Negative (-17 bps) → USD yield advantage Favors USD investments UIP Condition AUD should depreciate; often fails AUD appreciation likely Carry Trade +0.53% carry (USD-funded) Profitable if AUD stable/weak Primary Risk AUD appreciation erodes carry returns Forecast: AUD ↑ to 0.67 Conclusion The negative yield spread (-17 bps) and interest rate differential (-0.40% to -0.65%) favor USD investments over AUD. UIP predicts AUD depreciation but historically fails; AUD is instead projected to appreciate to 0.67 in 2025. Carry trades borrowing AUD to invest in USD offer a +0.53% yield pickup but face significant risk from forecasted AUD strength. Investors should monitor RBA/Fed policy shifts and global trade tensions for carry trade adjustments. #AUDUSD
by Shavyfxhub
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D27 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W26 D27 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily order block ✅1H Order block ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅4H Order block 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
The US dollar decline is a massive opportunity Hey all, just a thesis i've had for a while now and there is many charts and data points ive used to get confidence in this. Short term I see the AUD decreasing on the lower demand for out exports (iron, coal, copper), Also house I see an economic contraction likely as house prices have already priced out many and borrowing cost are still elevated from the pandemic lows. With the uncertainty of a possible trade wars, military wars and energy prices i dont see the RBA or Fed lowering rates to what the market is expecting. This will also help the short term decline of the AUD. But once more clarity, economic activity picks up and stimulus either from the fed lowering rates and/or government spending more to keep voters this will fundamentally show the over supply of USD. After all recessions and then subsequent stimulus the USD rises for the crisis and then declines for the next 2 years on Average I see the same playing out but most likely to an even greater scale given the major over supply and focus on the USD.
by jackwheeler
1
AUD/USD: The Clearest Short Opportunity This WeekThis week, the macro and market landscape provides a rare alignment across all major models—making AUD/USD the standout short opportunity among G10 FX pairs. Key Reasons for the Bearish AUD/USD Bias: 1. Commitment of Traders (COT): Institutional positioning has turned decisively bearish on the Australian dollar, with net shorts increasing and sentiment remaining negative. 2. Z-Score & Positioning Extremes: Z-Score indicators confirm a below-average long bias for AUD, highlighting that recent speculative flows are heavily skewed to the short side. 3. EXO/Score Model: Our EXO (macro scoring) model gives AUD/USD a clear SHORT rating, with no offsetting bullish factors in the “core” or “risk/reward” signals. 4. Commodity Edge – Iron Ore: Iron ore prices, a crucial driver for AUD, have sharply declined in recent weeks. This is a classic “canary in the coal mine” for AUD weakness historically, persistent iron ore declines precede broader AUD selloffs. 5. Sentiment & Risk Environment: Despite global “risk-on” sentiment, AUD is unable to benefit, as both macro and market participants rotate away from commodity FX and into USD strength. 6. Endo (Fundamental) Model: While Australia’s macro data still looks solid on a lagging basis, all faster models (positioning, flows, sentiment, commodities) point to an imminent shift typically, ENDO lags in catching turning points. Conclusion & Tactical View: SHORT AUD/USD is the highest conviction trade for this week, backed by full alignment of macro, positioning, sentiment, and real-economy factors. Expect continued downside pressure while commodity markets and COT data remain bearish. For active traders, the first 3–7 days following this setup historically provide the highest reward-to-risk moves.
Short
by Idealadvantage
Potential bearish breakout?AUD/USD is falling towards a support level, which acts as a pullback support. A breakout below this level could lead the price to drop further towards our take-profit target Entry: 0.6533 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 0.6560 Why we like it: There is a resistance level at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 0.6492 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 71% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUDUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by dkb14246
1
Audusd setup Here's a bullish analysis on AUD/USD (generic and adaptable to most timeframes; if you want it based on a specific chart or timeframe, let me know): --- 📈 AUD/USD Bullish Analysis 1. Support Zone Holding Strong: AUD/USD has established a firm support level around where price has bounced multiple times. Recent price action shows a double bottom or rounded base formation, indicating demand buildup. 2. Bullish Trendline Formation: A new higher low structure is forming, suggesting a shift in momentum. Price is respecting a short-term ascending trendline, signaling continued buying interest. 3. Breakout Confirmation: A bullish breakout above the 0.6650 resistance opens room for an upward move. Next target levels: 0.6700 and 0.6780. 4. RSI & Momentum Indicators: RSI trending above 50, showing strength. Bullish divergence on momentum indicators confirms possible upside continuation. 5. Fundamentals (Optional Context): AUD supported by improving risk sentiment and commodity strength (especially iron ore and gold). USD weakening slightly due to lower rate hike expectations from the Fed. --- 🎯 Bullish Targets: Entry zone: 0.6620–0.6640 Target 1: 0.6700 Target 2: 0.6780 Stop-loss: Below support
Short
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
1
AUDUSD – Intraday/Swing LongSetup: Intraday entry with swing target. Watching for long opportunity on AUDUSD Bias: Bullish – based on structure and support zone from higher TF. This exact setup was tested over 300+ trades across the last 2.5 years. It showed: – ~42% win rate - Profit Factor 2.9 – Average R:R = 4:1 – Profitability proven on major FX pair AUDUSD - Losing Streak 5 - Winning Streak 4 Execution: Limit order active until 0.64950 – will cancel if price reaches that level. ⚠️ Disclaimer ⚠️ This is not financial advice or an investment opportunity. I’m sharing my own approach based on long-term data and personal strategy development. If you want to trade like this – start with proper backtesting and understand your strategy's edge. Almost any strategy can be profitable – the key is in understanding the data and how to manage risk. 💡 For more trading ideas and insights, feel free to follow me here on TradingView!
Long
by TraderDominik
AUDUSD TECHNICALS AND FUNDAMENTALS DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD has officially broken out of a multi-week ascending triangle structure, and momentum is now building for a bullish continuation. The price is currently trading around 0.6533 after a strong breakout above the 0.6520 resistance zone. This consolidation was forming higher lows, signaling accumulation and bullish intent. The clean breakout above the horizontal resistance confirms buyers are in control. With this pattern validated, my short-term target is 0.6700–0.6750, aligning with the measured move projection. From a macro perspective, AUD is gaining strength due to a divergence in monetary policy outlooks. The Reserve Bank of Australia remains hawkish, supported by sticky inflation data and a tight labor market, while the Federal Reserve has recently hinted at a dovish turn, acknowledging signs of economic slowdown. Additionally, a weaker U.S. dollar index (DXY) and rising commodity prices—especially iron ore and copper—are tailwinds for the Australian dollar. These fundamental shifts are reinforcing the bullish technical breakout. On the 8H chart, the ascending triangle is a clear signal of bullish pressure. The zone around 0.6450–0.6520 acted as strong demand during the consolidation phase. A successful breakout retest of this zone could offer secondary entry opportunities. The risk-reward ratio is attractive, with a defined invalidation below the trendline and a target extending toward yearly highs near 0.6750. This setup stands out as high-probability. With bullish price action, supportive fundamentals, and risk-on sentiment returning across FX majors, AUDUSD is primed for further upside. I’m holding long with conviction, expecting continuation toward the projected breakout target. This trade aligns with current market structure, trend strength, and macro drivers—perfect timing in a trending market environment.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
AUDUSD - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25For AUD/USD here (0.6487) I’d peg the odds roughly at: Rally above 0.6943 first ~60% Drop below 0.6031 first ~40% Why a tilt to the upside? Higher-low structure: Since last year’s low near 0.594, price has formed progressively higher retracements (0.620 → 0.635 → 0.648). Momentum: Daily candles have been predominantly bullish with shallow pullbacks, and there’s room before any clear overbought signals. Mid‐range flip: The 0.6031 zone has held as support and the current range midpoint (~0.649) has been reclaimed on a sustained basis—suggesting buyers are in control through the mid‐band.
Long
by Gamblers-Fallacy
2