uptrendIt is expected that after some fluctuation and correction, the correction pattern will be completed and then the start of the upward trend will be likely.
AUDUSD trade ideas
Will AUDUSD limitedly recover amid mixed views?Macro:
- The aussie-dollar is rebounding after the bearish sentiment over Trump’s tariffs has pressured the currency.
- Expectations are rising that the RBA will cut interest rates this month due to easing inflation and weaker growth prospects.
- This theme may impair currency recovery if there are any further corrections.
Technical:
- AUDUSD is recovering from its swing low around the support at 0.6150. The price forms a potential double-bottom pattern, which may set an upward bias to the currency in the short term.
- If AUDUSD stays above its support at 0.6250, the price may continue to advance to retest at 0.6400, which confluences with the 38.2% level of the Fibonacci Retracement.
- On the contrary, closing below the support at 0.6250, confluence with EMA21 may prompt a retest of the previous swing low of around 0.6140.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
AUDUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- During the Senate hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that "there is no need to rush in adjusting the stance of monetary policy," emphasizing that the Fed's policy is significantly less restrictive than before and that the economy remains strong. He maintained a cautious and conservative stance, suggesting it is too early to assess the impact of tariff policies.
- Markets showed little reaction to Powell's remarks, as they were largely in line with his statements in January. Instead, attention is focused on the February CPI and employment data, which will be released before the March FOMC meeting.
- ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel took a hawkish stance, stating that while rate cuts could mitigate economic downturns, they cannot resolve structural crises such as high energy prices, economic stagnation, and labor shortages.
This Week’s Key Economic Events
+ Feb 12: U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI), Speech by Fed Chair Powell
+ Feb 13: U.K. Q4 GDP, Germany January CPI, U.S. January Producer Price Index (PPI)
+ Feb 14: U.S. January Retail Sales
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
Recently, the pair found support at the 0.61000 level and successfully climbed to 0.63000. If it breaks through this level, further gains up to 0.64000 can be expected. However, this movement is seen as part of a broader downtrend, with an eventual decline towards 0.60000 anticipated.
If unforeseen factors lead to a breakout above 0.64000, we will swiftly adjust our strategy.
Australian dollar drifting after mixed confidence dataThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6279, up 0.05% on the day.
Australian confidence indicators were mixed on Tuesday. The Westpac consumer sentiment index climbed 0.1% in February to 92.2 points, which means a majority of the surveyed consumers were pessimistic about econmic conditions. The reading bounced back from a 0.7% decline in January but was shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Consumer confidence remains weak as consumers have been squeezed by high inflation and elevated interest rates. The survey noted that consumers have become more confident that the central bank will lower rates.
The National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence index, which rose 6 points in January to +4. However, business conditions index dropped to +3 from +6 a month earlier, as profitability and employment weakened. The NAB survey noted that retail spending has improved and this trend would need to continue if business conditions were to improve.
The mixed confidence numbers come just one week before a crucial Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. A rate cut is virtually certain at the meeting, which would mark the RBA's first rate cut since Nov. 2020. The RBA is yet to join the easing cycle which other major central banks have implemented as inflation has fallen.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to continue to maintain interest rates at the March meeting. The US economy remains robust and the labor market has slowed gradually, which means there isn't much pressure on Fed policy makers to lower rates in the coming months. Barring unexpected economic news, the Fed is expected to cut rates no more than one or two times in 2025.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6267 earlier. Below, there is support at 0.6245
There is resistance at 0.6299 and 0.6321
AUDUSD: We expect 100bp of RBA cuts in 2025The market is pricing in the first 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next week on 18 February. While this is in line with our view and we place a 60% probability to it, we think the decision to cut or pause will be a close one – and it’s therefore not a done deal. Key to our thinking is that the wage pressures have eased more than expected and household consumption growth has been weaker than expected, which should give the RBA more comfort to ease. However, the unemployment rate is still below the central bank’s target, which could result in more uncertainty on the pace and timing of rate cuts.
Weak employment details support our call for a rate cut in February. For December 2024, despite the strong headline employment growth number, the increase largely came from the part-time sector. Even on a trend basis, we can see a weakening trend of full-time employment growth, while the pace of part-time employment growth has improved. Part-time jobs – which are almost by definition more poorly paid, and often come with lower job security, perks and other benefits – will have a smaller impact, job-for-job, on household spending than full-time employment growth.
The AUD cash rate future curve fully prices in a 25bp rate cut in February, and a total of 83bp of easing by the end of the year. That follows a dovish shift in rate expectations, with markets having added almost 50bp of additional cuts for 2025 since mid-November.
While we acknowledge the risk of inflationary bumps slowing easing plans, we currently forecast a total of 100bp of RBA easing in 2025 (including this February cut), taking rates to a terminal level of 3.35%.
AUDUSD • Context:
• RBA: Has allowed pauses in rate hikes due to global economic slowdown and dependence on China.
• External Factors: Demand for commodities, developments in commodity markets, Chinese data.
• Possible Direction:
• Bias: Slightly bearish on AUD against the USD if the Fed remains hawkish and global growth doesn’t pick up.
• Catalysts: Chinese data (PMI, resource demand), RBA reports.
AUD/USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
AUD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 1D timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.611 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUDUSD SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on Audusd price form a supply around level of 0.62834 and now try to go down so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 0.62712 and 0.62589 . Use money management
AUDUSD H4 | Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 0.6279, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 0.6177, an overlap support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 0.6340, which is a pullback resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Aud/Usd LongA/U has completed a weekly channel and has now been trading around a daily one. longs incoming
AUDUSD POSSIBLE SELL?Overall direction is to the downside based on Monthly and Weekly perspective.
The market is currently testing the current Weekly Daily area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern which could lead to a possible reversal.
We could seeSELLERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor
Australia dollar eyes confidence dataThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6275, up 0.60% on the day.
Australia releases business and consumer confidence on Tuesday, with the markets expecting some improvement. Westpac Consumer Sentiment is expected to rebound and gain 0.4% in February after a 0.7% decline in January. The National Australian Bank business confidence index is projected to improve to zero in January, after a -2 reading in December.
China's inflation was a mix, as consumer inflation rose to a five-month high while producer inflation continued to decline. CPI jumped 0.5% y/y in January, up from 0.1% in December and above the market estimate of 0.4%. This was the highest level since August. Monthly CPI rose 0.7%, up sharply from zero in December and an 11-month high, but shy of the market estimate of 0.8%
The producer price index fell 2.3% y/y in January unchanged from December and deeper than the market estimate of 2.1%. This points to deflation which is likely to worsen if the trade war between the US and China continues. On Monday, China's retaliatory tariffs kicked in after the US hit China with tariffs last week.
US nonfarm payrolls decelerate, unemployment falls
US nonfarm payrolls eased to 143 thousand in January, shy of the market estimate of 175 thousand. Still, there weres signs of strength in the labor market - nonfarm payrolls were revised by 100 thousand in the previous two months and the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4% from 4.1%, below the market estimate of 4.1%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, up from 0.3% in December and above the market estimate of 0.5%. Annually, average hourly earnings rose 4.1%, unchanged from the revised December reading and above the market estimate of 3.8%. The generally positive employment report supports the case for the Federal Reserve continuing to hold rates, possibly until the third quarter. Just a few months ago, it appeared that the Fed would stay aggressive and continue lowering rates into 2025, but with the economy purring along we might see only one or two rate cuts this year.
There is resistance at 0.6351 and 0.6430
There is support at 0.6220 and 0.6141
AUDUSDAUDUSD is looking good for long setup here . i see the previous short term lows swept and each bullish pd array is respected next target would be higher
AUD/USD NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE, ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R 1/3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signal for scalping
AUDUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Let me share my personal view on AUD/USD with you.
Based on the AUD/USD chart, if the price closes above 0.62835 in the daily timeframe, I expect it to move toward 0.63362 as the first target and 0.64334 as the second target.
However, if the price closes below 0.62835 in the daily timeframe, I expect further downward movement.
📉 Expectation:
Bullish Scenario: Daily close above 0.62835, targeting 0.63362 and 0.64334.
Bearish Scenario: Daily close below 0.62835, signaling further decline.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 0.62835, 0.63362, 0.64334
Support: Watch price action below 0.62835
💬 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Trade safe
AUD/USD Breakout Watch: Bullish Continuation or False Alarm?The AUD/USD pair is trading in a consolidation zone after breaking above a key descending trendline, signaling bullish momentum.
The price has retested the breakout level, turning resistance into support, strengthening the outlook. With the RSI at 51.32, holding above 0.6200 could push the price toward 0.6400, with a target near 0.6700.
A drop below this level may trigger a pullback.
ABOUT AUDUSDMy option about audusd Is more bearish so that zone is good and strong restanice if the price comes to that zone it can pullback
possibility of uptrendThe uptrend is expected to continue until the specified resistance levels. Then there is a possibility of a trend change. If the price breaks through the resistance level, the uptrend is likely to continue.
