Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6423
1st Support: 0.6328
1st Resistance: 0.6583
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AUDUSD trade ideas
Could the Aussie bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level too ur take profit.
Entry: 0.6492
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6450
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6551
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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AUDUSD STARTED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTUREAUDUSD STARTED FORMING BEARISH TREND STRUCTURE
Price started forming lower low, which indicates bearish trend.
price is expected to remain bearish in upcoming trading sessions.
on lower side market may hit the targets of 0.64500 & 0.63800.
On higher side 0.65900 level can act as a important resistance level.
AUD/USD Short: Riding the Perfect Storm to 0.6400Hello, traders! 🚀
A rare and powerful setup is forming on AUD/USD, and all signs are pointing decisively lower. 👇 This isn't just a simple technical pattern; it's a perfect storm of fundamental, technical, and event-driven factors aligning to create a high-conviction short opportunity.
If you're looking for a clean setup with a clear catalyst, this is it. Let's break it down! 🧐
The Core Thesis: Why We're Bearish 🌪️
This trade is built on three powerful pillars that are converging at the same time:
Massive Policy Divergence: 🇺🇸 vs 🇦🇺 This is the engine of the trade.
The Fed (USD): Remains HAWKISH 🦅. They are laser-focused on fighting stubborn inflation and have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates.
The RBA (AUD): Is actively DOVISH 🐨. They've already cut rates and are widely expected to cut again this week to support a weakening economy.
Result: This widening gap in interest rate policy creates a fundamental tailwind that heavily favors a stronger USD and a weaker AUD. 💸
The Dual-Catalyst Event (July 9th): 🗓️ This is the trigger.
FOMC Minutes Release: The minutes from the Fed's last meeting are expected to confirm their hawkish stance, reinforcing USD strength.
Tariff Deadline: A 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs expires on the same day . The base case is that tariffs will be reimposed, sparking a risk-off move in the markets.
Result: Risk-off sentiment is toxic for the risk-sensitive Aussie dollar (AUD) and a magnet for the safe-haven US dollar (USD). This is a potential double-whammy for AUD/USD. 💥
The Technical Picture is Screaming "Down" 📉
The chart tells a crystal-clear story of rejection and weakness. As you can see on the 4H chart, the price action is incredibly bearish after failing to break out higher.
The Great Wall of Resistance: Bulls threw everything they had at the 0.6590 - 0.6600 resistance zone and were decisively rejected. 🧱 This wasn't just any level; it was an 8-month high and a major long-term resistance area. A failure this strong is a huge red flag for buyers. 🛑
Momentum has Flipped: We saw classic bearish divergence on the higher timeframes, and as you can see on this 4H chart, we have now decisively broken below the recent rising channel. The path of least resistance has flipped from up to down. 👇
The Trade Plan 🎯
Here are the precise levels for executing this trade idea.
Asset: AUD/USD
Direction: Short (Sell) 📉
Entry Zone: ➡️ Look for a patient entry on a pullback to the 0.6535 - 0.6550 area. This was previous support and is now expected to act as strong resistance. We want to sell into strength.
Stop Loss: 🛑 A daily close above 0.6610 . This level is safely above the recent highs. A break here would invalidate our bearish thesis.
Target 1 (TP1): ✅ 0.6475 . This is the first logical support level. A good area to take partial profits and move your stop loss to break-even.
Target 2 (TP2): 🏆 0.6400 . This is our primary target, representing the bottom of the multi-week trading range and offering an excellent risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion: 💡
It's rare for fundamentals, technicals, and a major event catalyst to align so perfectly. The rejection at major resistance, combined with the powerful fundamental driver of policy divergence and the upcoming dual-catalyst on July 9th, makes this a high-conviction setup.
This is my analysis and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk carefully.
What do you think? Are you bearish on the Aussie too? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! 👇
And if you found this analysis helpful, please give it a BOOST 🚀 and FOLLOW for more trade ideas! 👍
AUSSIE BANK ROBBERY: AUD/USD Bullish Breakout Confirmed!🔥 AUD/USD BANK HEIST: The Ultimate Bullish Robbery Plan (Thief Trading Style) 🔥
🌟 ATTENTION, MONEY MAKERS & MARKET ROBBERS! 🌟
💸 MISSION BRIEF:
Based on Thief Trading Style (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re executing a bullish heist on AUD/USD ("The Aussie")—time to steal those pips like a pro!
📈 ENTRY STRATEGY (The Heist Begins!)
Long Entry Trigger: Wait for Dynamic Resistance MA crossover + candle close above 0.65300 (bullish confirmation).
Pro Tip: Use Buy Stop orders above MA or Buy Limit orders on pullbacks (15m/30m timeframe).
🔔 SET AN ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout—alert up, gloves on!
🛑 STOP LOSS (Protect Your Loot!)
"Yo, rookie! 🗣️ If you’re entering on breakout, DO NOT set SL before confirmation!
📍 Thief SL Placement: Nearest 4H swing low (0.64800)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & trade multiples.
⚠️ Warning: Deviate at your own peril—your risk, your rules!
🎯 TARGET (Cash Out & Run!)
Take Profit Zone: 0.65800
Scalpers: Long-only plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
Swing Traders: Ride the wave—big money moves require patience!
📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP (Know Why We Robbin’!)
Bullish momentum fueled by macro trends, COT data, sentiment shifts.
🚨 Breaking News Alert: Avoid high-impact news spikes—trail SL or stay out!
💥 BOOST THE HEIST!
Hit 👍 LIKE, 🔄 SHARE & 🚀 BOOST—strengthen the robbery squad! More heists = more profits!
🤑 NEXT HEIST COMING SOON… STAY TUNED! 🐱👤
AUDUSD - RBA Rate Cut and Tariff Deadline in FocusIn a week that is light on economic data and events, with a heavy emphasis towards what happens next once President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause ends on Wednesday (July 9th), the AUDUSD currency pair has more than most for traders to focus on.
This is due to the fact the RBA, the Australian central bank, decides early Tuesday morning (0530 BST) whether to cut interest rates for the third time in a row from 3.85% to 3.6%, as is widely expected by markets, given that inflation has eased in recent months back into the RBA’s 2-3% target range. This announcement is closely followed by the RBA press conference (0630 BST), which could also be an important influence on the direction of AUDUSD depending on the comments Governor Bullock makes regarding future rate moves, economic growth and tariffs.
In terms of trade tariffs, President Trump last week suggested that he is unlikely to extend the 90 day pause, although he has changed his mind before. He also indicated that letters are being sent to trading partners outlining tariffs of between 10-70% on imports depending on whether he believes the country has been negotiating in good faith or not. These new tariffs are due to go into force on August 1st, so there is potentially still time for more twists and turns in this story and AUDUSD volatility may well increase across the trading week ahead as it plays out.
AUDUSD touched an 8 month high at 0.6590 last Tuesday (July 1st) before running into a wall of profit taking and eventually closing the week at 0.6550. Given the risk events facing traders that were just outlined above, this type of price action may not be that surprising.
Looking at how this week has started for AUDUSD, early trading in Asia has seen fresh selling to potential support around 0.6500 (see technical update below), which at the time of writing (0730 BST), is still holding, although bounces have so far been limited.
Technical Update: Preparing For The Week Ahead
With potential for a rate cut in Australia and concerns over tariff news this week, it perhaps isn’t too much of a surprise AUDUSD price corrections are materialising as a reaction to recent strength. While this decline may continue over the short term, traders are perhaps more focused on the potentially positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that have materialised since April 9th 2025, which the chart below shows.
Of course, there is no guarantee this pattern will continue over coming sessions but being aware of support and resistance levels that may hold or exaggerate future price moves may be useful to know in advance.
Potential Support Levels:
After price strength, especially if new recovery highs within an uptrend pattern have been posted, it may prove to be Fibonacci retracement levels that act as support to any future price weakness. Calculating these on the period of price strength seen between May 12th up to the July 1st high, the 38.2% retracement level stands at 0.6501.
With the current setback now moving towards 0.6501 this morning, traders may be watching how this potential support level performs on a closing basis, as confirmed breaks lower might lead to a more extended phase of weakness that could prompt tests of 0.6473, the 50% retracement, even 0.6446, the deeper 62% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Having seen new highs recently posted, which was the highest AUDUSD trade since mid-November 2024 (see the chart below), we can look at the weekly perspective to establish the next possible resistance levels.
As the chart shows, the latest AUDUSD activity has recently tested weekly resistance at 0.6550, which is equal to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September 2024 to April 2025 weakness. It should be noted, in a similar way to last week, that it is possible AUDUSD may see trading activity above this 0.6550 resistance, but as we are using a weekly timeframe, it is this upcoming Friday's weekly close above this level that is required to suggest possibilities of a successful upside closing break.
Much will depend on future market sentiment and price trends, but weekly closes above 0.6550 if seen, may lead to further price strength towards 0.6688, the November 2024 high.
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Aussie: Still Growing!
CAPITALCOM:AUDUSD
The bullish momentum continues after our last successful AUDUSD setup, and a move toward the 0.65900 resistance area looks probable now.
🪙 My Trading Plan:
🔼 BUY Stop: 0.65648
❌ Stop Loss: 0.65320
✅ Take Profit: 0.65965
💡 Why am I buying here?
✅ Price broke recent resistance at 0.65500, activating buy trades.
✅ RSI confirm ongoing bullish momentum 📊.
📰 Fundamental Situation:
🏦 RBA Rate Decision Supports AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding rates steady at 3.85% 🏛️, diverging from expectations of a cut. This cautious stance reflects the RBA’s preference to wait for clearer signs of slowing inflation 📉 before adjusting policy further.
Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation risks remain persistent ⚠️, driven by high labor costs and weak productivity, possibly requiring a longer period of restrictive policy ⏳. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser noted the bank is closely monitoring global risks 🌐, especially US tariff developments, underscoring sensitivity to global headwinds that could impact trade and growth 📦.
🌎 Trade Tensions in Focus:
President Trump ruled out extending tariff deadlines beyond August 1 ⛔, announcing new duties:
🔹 50% on copper 🪙
🔹 Potential 200% on pharmaceuticals 💊
🔹 10% on goods from BRICS 🌐
These moves are likely to intensify global trade tensions ⚔️, potentially impacting commodity flows and inflation, which the RBA and markets will continue to monitor closely.
AUDUSD Today July 8th 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in the official cash rate, lowering it from 3.85% to 3.60%. This would be the third rate cut in 2025, reflecting easing inflation and a slowing economy.
Key Details for July 8, 2025:
2:30 AM WAT:
Release of NAB Business Confidence data for Australia.
5:30 AM WAT:
Announcement of the RBA Cash Rate decision, expected to be cut to 3.60% from 3.85%.
Release of the RBA Rate Statement, outlining the rationale behind the decision.
RBA Press Conference follows, providing further insights and answering questions.
Market Expectations and Impact:
Major banks including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, NAB, and ANZ unanimously forecast this 25 bps cut due to softer inflation and subdued economic growth.
The rate cut is expected to ease borrowing costs, potentially saving mortgage holders .
The RBA aims to balance supporting growth while maintaining inflation within its 2–3% target band.
Summary Timeline (WAT)
Time Event Expected Outcome
2:30 AM NAB Business Confidence Indicator of business sentiment
5:30 AM RBA Cash Rate Announcement Cut from 3.85% to 3.60%
5:30 AM RBA Rate Statement Explanation of decision
5:30 AM RBA Press Conference Q&A and further guidance
This rate cut is part of a broader easing cycle, with markets pricing in multiple cuts through the rest of 2025 as inflation remains manageable but economic growth slows.
2. 10-Year Government Bond Yields
Australia 10-Year Bond Yield: Has been falling in 2025 alongside expectations of RBA rate cuts,
AU10Y=4.232%
OCR=3.85% TO TRIM IT TO 3.60% TODAY.
US10Y=4.383%
USD IRT=4.25%-4.5%
3. Interest Rates
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Cash Rate: Recently cut from 3.85% to 3.60% in July 2025, with expectations of further easing (potentially down to ~3.6% by year-end).
US Federal Reserve Rate: Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% as of mid-2025, with a slower pace of cuts compared to Australia.
4. Interest Rate Differential and Impact on AUD/USD
The interest rate differential (US rate minus Australian rate) currently favors the US by approximately 0.65–0.9 percentage points (Fed rate ~4.25–4.50% vs. RBA ~3.60%).
This narrowing differential from earlier wider gaps has weighed on the AUD, as higher US rates attract capital flows, supporting the USD.
However, the recent RBA rate cuts and easing inflation in Australia have softened the differential, giving some support to the AUD.
Other factors influencing AUD/USD include US tariffs, China’s economic outlook (as Australia’s key trading partner), and global risk sentiment.
The AUD/USD is expected to remain sensitive to the interest rate differential and central bank policies.
Further RBA cuts could weaken the AUD if the US Fed maintains higher rates.
Conversely, any signs of US rate cuts or easing trade tensions could boost the AUD.
Inflation trends, China’s economic health, and geopolitical factors will also play key roles.
In essence:
The interest rate differential between the US and Australia currently favors the US, supporting the USD over the AUD, but recent RBA easing and falling Australian bond yields have narrowed this gap, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair . Traders closely watch upcoming economic data and central bank decisions for direction.
#AUDUSD #RBA #FEDS #BONDS #AU10Y #US10Y
China's PPI slides, Australian dollar steadyThe Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.03% on the day.
China's producer price index surprised on the downside in June, with a steep 3.6% y/y decline. TThe soft PPI report was driven by weak domestic demand and the continuing uncertainty over US tariffs. The lack of consumer demand was reflected in the weak CPI reading of 0.1% y /y, the first gain in four months. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.1%, following a 0.2% drop in May. There was a silver lining as core CPI rose 0.7% y/y, the fastest pace in 14 months.
The uncertainty over US President Trump's tariff policy continues to perplex the financial markets. Trump had promised a new round of tariffs against a host of countries on July 9 but he has delayed that deadline until August 1.
China, the world's second-largest economy after the US, has taken a hit from US tariffs, as China's exports to the US are down 9.7% this year, However, China has mitigated much of the damage as China's exports to the rest of the world are up 6%. There is a trade truce in effect between the two countries but the bruising trade war will continue to dampen US-China trade.
With no tier-1 events out of the US today, the FOMC minutes of the June meeting will be on center stage. The Fed held rates at that meeting and Fed Chair Powell, who has taken a lot of heat from Donald Trump to cut rates, defended his wait-and-see-attitude, citing the uncertainty that Trump's tariffs are having on US growth and inflation forecasts.his was below the May decline of 3.3% and the consensus of -3.2%. China has posted producer deflation for 33 successive months and the June figure marked the steepest slide since July 2023. Monthly, PPI declined by 0.4%, unchanged over the past three months.
AUDUSD 4hour TF - July 6th, 2025AUDUSD 7/6/2025
AUDUSD 4hour Neutral idea
Monthly - Bearish
Weekly - Bearish
Dailly - Bullish
4hour - Ranging
We are still technically bullish overall but we can see here on the 4hour that AU is ranging between 0.65800 & 0.65500. This is a fairly small range so we’re not that interested in taking trades while price action is bouncing between these two zones.
We’re looking for conviction above 0.65800 or below 0.65500 before we can comfortably make a move. Let’s see what both of those situations would look like:
Bullish Continuation - Most of the trend data is suggesting AU is still bullish but we would need to see a strong push above resistance around 0.65800 with a confirmed higher low above before getting into any trades. If we do see this play out I'm looking toward 0.66750 resistance as a target.
Reversal back into channel - Price action seems to be poking out of the bottom of this range but we are still not convinced just yet. For us to strongly consider this a bearish move we would like to see a retest of 0.65500 as resistance followed by bearish conviction. Look for price action to move lower toward key support areas if this happens.
AUDUSD Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.653.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.649 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 7 - 11 JulyMarket Insights: RBA Cut in Focus, UK GDP Weakens, Canada Jobs, FOMC Clues, Tariff Deadline
From rate decisions to rising unemployment and tariff deadlines, this week’s macro landscape is shaped by evolving dynamics and shifting momentum. If you’re trading FX, commodities, or indices — this is a moment to pay close attention.
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s biggest events:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— FOMC Minutes
— Tariff Deadline
Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.
This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AUDUSDTHE month July 8, 2025, the key Australian economic events
2:30 AM WAT – NAB Business Confidence
Actual: 5
Forecast: 2
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose sharply to 5 in June 2025 from 2 in May, marking its highest level since January and indicating improving business sentiment. This improvement was driven by gains in sales, profitability, and employment, signaling optimism about the economic outlook despite some lingering cost pressures.
5:30 AM WAT – RBA Cash Rate and Related Announcements
Cash Rate Actual: 3.85% (no cut at this meeting)
Forecast: 3.60% (markets had expected a 25 bps cut)
Previous: 3.85%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 3.85%, surprising markets that had expected a cut to 3.60%. The RBA Rate Statement accompanied the decision, providing insights into the bank’s view on inflation, growth, and monetary policy. The decision reflects the RBA’s cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and ongoing inflation concerns.
The stronger business confidence contrasted with the RBA’s decision to pause rate cuts, highlighting uncertainty about the economic outlook and inflation trajectory in Australia.
AU10Y=ROSE TO 4.3% FROM DAILY OPEN OF 4.206%
AUD OCR=3.85% THE SAME
US10Y=4.391%
US IRT=4.25-4.5%
This shift in AU1OY and RATE hold of 3.85% will give AUD a buy opportunity going forward.
while we are seeing tariff related shocks evident ,AUSTRALIA a commodities dependent economy will take a offensive .
The announcement and implementation of tariffs have created uncertainty, causing the AUD to decline from recent highs. The AUD/USD pair dropped in anticipation of tariff changes and broader risk aversion in global markets.
Market Sentiment:
The threat of higher tariffs and trade tensions typically weighs on the AUD, as Australia’s economy is highly exposed to global trade flows. Increased tariffs can reduce export competitiveness and hurt terms of trade, especially if global growth slows as a result.
Limited Direct Impact:
since the US is not Australia’s largest export market. However, indirect effects—such as slower global growth or disruptions in China (Australia’s biggest trading partner)—could further pressure the AUD.
Broader Economic and Policy Context
RBA Response:
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cited tariff uncertainty as a reason for holding interest rates steady, adopting a “wait-and-see” approach until the full effects of global trade tensions are clearer.
Exchange Rate as Shock Absorber:
The AUD often acts as a buffer during global shocks. If tariffs or trade tensions worsen, a weaker AUD can help offset some of the negative effects by making Australian exports more competitive, but it also increases the cost of imports.
Key Takeaways
Tariff uncertainty has already contributed to recent AUD weakness.
If trade tensions escalate or global growth slows, the AUD could face further downside.
The RBA is likely to remain cautious, and the AUD will remain sensitive to both tariff developments and broader economic data.
#AUDUSD
AUDUSD long positionThe AUD/USD 2-hour chart shows a strong buy opportunity as price reacts to a key support zone. Multiple rejections with long lower wicks signal strong buyer interest, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The setup offers a great risk-to-reward ratio, with a tight stop below support and a wide target above. If price breaks above the 50 EMA, it would further confirm bullish momentum.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 0.6567
1st Support: 0.6544
1st Resistance: 0.6603
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD_USD WILL GO UP|LONG|
✅AUD_USD has retested a key support level of 0.6540
And as the pair is already making a bullish rebound
A move up to retest the supply level above at 0.6584 is likely
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surpriseThe Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating.
The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate.
The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation".
Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again".
Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022.
The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513. Above, there is resistance at 0.6541
There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
Australian dollar stabilizes after RBA's surprise The Australian dollar is in positive territory after a three-day skid, declining 1.5%. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6532, up 0.50% on the day. The Australian dollar rose as much as 0.95% earlier before retreating.
The Reserve Bank of Australia blindslided the markets on Tuesday as the central bank held the cash rate at 3.85%. The markets had priced in a quarter-point cut at 96%, but the RBA had the last laugh. For the first time, the RBA published the vote tally, which was 6-3 in favor of maintaining the rate.
The rate statement was cautious, as members said "there are uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation".
Governor Bullock tried to calm the markets, saying that the decision was about "timing rather than direction" and that the Bank would "wait a few weeks" to confirm that inflation was on track to ease and remain sustainably around 2.5%. Bullock said that "we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again".
Inflation is moving in the right direction but the RBA wants to see the second-quarter inflation report on July 30, ahead of the rate decision on Aug. 12. Headline CPI in May eased to 2.1% y/y from 2.4% in April. The core rate dropped to 2.8% from 2.4% in April, the lowest rate since early 2022.
The RBA will be hoping that waiting till August will provide some clarity with regard to US tariff policy. President Trump has pledged new tariffs against various countries but this move is not expected to have much impact on Australia's economy.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6513.
Above, there is resistance at 0.6541
There is support at 0.6463 and 0.6435
AUDUSD trend reversal to the upside!!!# AUD/USD Long Trading Plan
## Setup
- **Pair**: AUD/USD
- **Direction**: LONG
- **Reason**: Breakout above major resistance indicating bullish trend.
## Entry
- Enter on confirmed break above resistance
- OR enter on retest on smaller time frame like 4h, 1h
## Stop Loss
- Below the broken resistance level
- Risk: 1-2% of account
## Take Profit
- **TP1**: Next resistance level (partial close) at 0.66825
- **TP2**: Extended target based on fib 1.618 at 0.68944
- **Risk:Reward**: Minimum 1:2
## Trade Management
- Move stop to breakeven after TP1 hit
- Trail stop as price moves in favor
- proper risk and reward