AUDUSD - Bearish breakoutAUD/USD 15-Minute Timeframe Analysis (Bearish Breakout)
1. Current Setup (Bearish Breakout):
The AUD/USD pair has broken below the Kumo cloud, signaling bearish momentum and the start of a potential continuation pattern.
This breakout represents the initiation of the I wave, with the price now pulling back to test key resistance levels.
2. Pullback to Fibonacci Levels:
After the bearish breakout, the price has retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent move.
There is potential for the pullback to extend to the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, which would still maintain the bearish structure.
Rejection from these levels will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
3. Trend Continuation and N Wave Formation:
The breakout and subsequent pullback form the A-B leg, while the continuation toward lower levels would complete the N wave, a trend continuation pattern.
The bearish N wave suggests further downside, targeting lower Fibonacci extension levels.
4. Target Projections:
If resistance holds at the 23.6%, 50%, or 61.8% Fibonacci levels, the bearish continuation is expected to aim for the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, completing the N wave.
Intermediate targets include the 127.2% Fibonacci extension, which could serve as a short-term support level.
5. Fundamental Alignment:
This technical setup aligns with expectations for stronger U.S. dollar fundamentals, especially in light of key economic data releases on Friday.
Market sentiment and volatility from these events will be critical to confirming the bearish scenario.
6. Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for bearish candlestick patterns or other confirmation (e.g., rejection at resistance levels or price staying below the Kijun-Sen).
Stop Loss: Place stops above the 61.8% Fibonacci level or a prior key high.
Targets:
First Target: 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Final Target: 161.8% Fibonacci extension (completion of the N wave).
7. Potential Risks:
A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level would invalidate the bearish scenario and indicate a potential reversal.
Unexpected outcomes from U.S. economic data releases could lead to increased volatility, impacting this technical setup.
8. Summary:
The bearish breakout from the Kumo cloud on the 15-minute chart suggests a continuation of the downtrend. A pullback to Fibonacci resistance levels offers opportunities for trend-following entries. The final target at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension aligns with the completion of the N wave, confirming the bearish outlook.
