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AUDUSD_ZERO trade ideas

AUDUSD: Bullish Accumulation?!Quick update for ⚠️AUDUSD: The price formed a classic bullish pattern on a 4-hour chart known as the ascending triangle, indicating bullish accumulation and a likely upward movement. To confirm this, we will adhere to the previously discussed plan, waiting for a breakout above 0.6560 and a 4-hour candle close above that level, which could lead to a potential rise to 0.6586. Conversely, a bearish breakout below the triangle's trend line would signal a strong downward movement.
by linofx1
6
Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Trading█ Signal-to-Noise Ratio: The Most Misunderstood Truth in Quant Trading Most traders obsess over indicators, signals, models, and strategies. But few ask the one question that defines whether any of it actually works: ❝ How strong is the signal — compared to the noise? ❞ Welcome to the concept of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) — the invisible force behind why some strategies succeed and most fail. █ What Is Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)? ⚪ In simple terms: Signal = the real, meaningful, repeatable part of a price move Noise = random fluctuations, market chaos, irrelevant variation SNR = Signal Strength / Noise Level If your signal is weak and noise is high, your edge gets buried. If your signal is strong and noise is low, you can extract alpha with confidence. In trading, SNR is like trying to hear a whisper in a hurricane. The whisper is your alpha. The hurricane is the market. █ Why SNR Matters (More Than Sharpe, More Than Accuracy) Most strategies die not because they’re logically flawed — but because they’re trying to extract signal in a low SNR environment. Financial markets are dominated by noise. The real edge (if it exists) is usually tiny and fleeting. Even strong-looking backtests can be false positives created by fitting noise. Every quant failure story you’ve ever heard — overfitting, false discoveries, bad AI models — starts with misunderstanding the signal-to-noise ratio. █ SNR in the Age of AI Machine learning struggles in markets because: Most market data has very low SNR The signal changes over time (nonstationarity) AI is powerful enough to learn anything — including pure noise This means unless you’re careful, your AI will confidently “discover” patterns that have no predictive value whatsoever. Smart quants don’t just train models. They fight for SNR — every input, feature, and label is scrutinized through this lens. █ How to Measure It (Sharpe, t-stat, IC) You can estimate a strategy’s SNR with: Sharpe Ratio: Signal = mean return, Noise = volatility t-Statistic: Measures how confident you are that signal ≠ 0 Information Coefficient (IC): Correlation between forecast and realized return 👉 A high Sharpe or t-stat suggests strong signal vs noise 👉 A low value means your “edge” might just be noise in disguise █ Real-World SNR: Why It's So Low in Markets The average daily return of SPX is ~0.03% The daily standard deviation is ~1% That's signal-to-noise of 1:30 — and that's for the entire market, not a niche alpha. Now imagine what it looks like for your scalping strategy, your RSI tweak, or your AI momentum model. This is why most trading signals don’t survive live markets — the noise is just too loud. █ How to Build Strategies With Higher SNR To survive as a trader, you must engineer around low SNR. Here's how: 1. Combine signals One weak signal = low SNR 100 uncorrelated weak signals = high aggregate SNR 2. Filter noise before acting Use volatility filters, regime detection, thresholds Trade only when signal strength exceeds noise level 3. Test over longer horizons Short-term = more noise Long-term = signal has more time to emerge 4. Avoid excessive optimization Every parameter you tweak risks modeling noise Simpler systems = less overfit = better SNR integrity 5. Validate rigorously Walk-forward, OOS testing, bootstrapping — treat your model like it’s guilty until proven innocent █ Low SNR = High Uncertainty In low-SNR environments: Alpha takes years to confirm (t-stat grows slowly) Backtests are unreliable (lucky noise often looks like skill) Drawdowns happen randomly (even good strategies get wrecked short-term) This is why experience, skepticism, and humility matter more than flashy charts. If your signal isn’t strong enough to consistently rise above noise, it doesn’t matter how elegant it looks. █ Overfitting Is What Happens When You Fit the Noise If you’ve read Why Your Backtest Lies , you already know the dangers of overfitting — when a strategy is tuned too perfectly to historical data and fails the moment it meets reality. ⚪ Here’s the deeper truth: Overfitting is the natural consequence of working in a low signal-to-noise environment. When markets are 95% noise and you optimize until everything looks perfect? You're not discovering a signal. You're just fitting past randomness — noise that will never repeat the same way again. ❝ The more you optimize in a low-SNR environment, the more confident you become in something that isn’t real. ❞ This is why so many “flawless” backtests collapse in live trading. Because they never captured signal — they captured noise. █ Final Word Quant trading isn’t about who can code the most indicators or build the deepest neural nets. It’s about who truly understands this: ❝ In a world full of noise, only the most disciplined signal survives. ❞ Before you build your next model, launch your next strategy, or chase your next setup… Ask this: ❝ Am I trading signal — or am I trading noise? ❞ If you don’t know the answer, you're probably doing the latter. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Education
by Zeiierman
4
AUDUSD 4H: Sell Zone Confirmed📉 AUDUSD Analysis – Current Trend & Trade Opportunity Hello Traders, I’ve prepared an updated analysis for the AUDUSD pair. At the moment, AUDUSD has shifted out of its previous bullish structure and has now entered a bearish trend. Based on this shift, I’m planning to enter a limit sell trade at the level shared below: 🔹 Limit Sell Entry: 0.65232 🔹 Stop Loss: 0.65576 🔹 Targets: • TP1: 0.64591 • TP2: 0.64591 • TP3: 0.63738 🔸 Risk/Reward Ratio: 4.27 Considering the trend reversal, I’m looking to open a position from these levels. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Short
by TraderTilki
6
AUDUSD: Short Setup Ahead of Key Data OANDA:AUDUSD AUDUSD is hovering near a rising trendline, with price action compressing and signaling a potential downside break in the coming sessions. Just above, the 0.65900 resistance zone has capped recent rallies, and the pair’s failure to clear this level strengthens the case for a reversal. Later today, we will see Westpac Consumer Confidence data for Australia, which could act as a catalyst for a sharp move. A weaker-than-expected print would likely pressure the Aussie further. 📋 Entry Checklist: ✅ Testing rising trendline, signaling potential breakdown ✅ Strong resistance at 0.65900 holding rallies ✅ Key consumer sentiment data could trigger volatility 📈 Trade Plan: 🔻 Sell Entry: 0.65600 ❌ Stop Loss: 0.66200 ✅ Take Profit: 0.65000 (Tap 👉 Trade Now 👈 on mobile to copy SL & TP easily) 📰 Fundamental Snapshot: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding rates steady at 3.85%, diverging from expectations of a potential cut. The RBA remains cautious amid persistent inflation risks driven by high labor costs and weak productivity, suggesting rates may stay restrictive longer. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that inflation could remain above forecasts, while Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized monitoring global uncertainties, including U.S. tariff developments, reflecting the RBA’s sensitivity to external headwinds impacting growth and trade.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
1
AUDUSD holds bullish structureAUDUSD is currently trading around 0.6576, maintaining a clear uptrend with higher lows and strong respect for the ascending trendline. A consolidation pattern is forming just below the key resistance zone at 0.6600–0.6617, suggesting a potential breakout if price stays above the support at 0.6546. On the news front, the Australian dollar is supported by expectations that the RBA will keep interest rates high, while the USD is under slight pressure following weaker U.S. job data this week. Additionally, improving consumer data from China – Australia’s major trading partner – is further boosting AUD sentiment. If the price breaks above 0.6617, AUDUSD could extend its rally into next week. Buyers are in control – have you planned your entry yet?
Long
by Rocky_trade_
2
Bullish bounce off overlap support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level too ur take profit. Entry: 0.6546 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6529 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 0.6590 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
AUD/USD: Bearish Pattern Hints at Downside MoveAUD/USD has struggled on pushes towards .6600 recently, including on Monday where a bearish reversal completed a three-candle evening star pattern—a notable topping pattern. While price signals ahead of major U.S. economic data during the Northern Hemisphere summer should be treated with extra caution, in an environment where trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are unlikely to be resolved in the near term, a short setup may be in order. Should AUD/USD push back towards minor resistance at .6558 without breaking above, shorts could be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection. .6490 screens as a logical initial target, aligning with the 50-day moving average with the July 7 low located just below. Some may look to enter around current levels, but given the caveats on the price signal, the preference is to let the setup come to you rather than forcing it. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
1
AUDUSDPotential swing trade SHORT! - Within the daily time frame, we can see it respecting the bearish trendline. is this the retracement towards the downside? - Bearish engulfing candles on all 3 time frames ( Daily, 4HR, 15M ) - overall bearish market structure in the higher time frame - USD is starting to pick up some momentum after a rocky past few weeks - high wicks on our supply zone giving us confirmation of sellers stepping If you want more trades, or wantimng to get to learn how to trade drop me a message and we can get started
Short
by BNAFX
9
AUDUSD Strong bullish momentum inside this Channel Up.The AUDUSD pair has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up pattern and on Monday almost hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. This is the start of its new Bullish Leg. Based on the previous ones, it should complete a +2.70% rise at least. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, we are bullish, targeting 0.66555. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Could the Aussie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.6650 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.6588 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Take profit: 0.6481 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
AUD/USD: Short Setup to 0.6450This trade idea is rooted in a data-driven approach, leveraging a rare asymmetry in the economic calendar and specific quantitative models to identify a high-clarity opportunity. 📊 The Thesis by the Numbers My model assigns clear probabilities to the potential scenarios for this week, based on the scheduled U.S. data releases. 60% Probability: Base Case (USD Strength). Triggered by a U.S. Core CPI reading at or above 0.3% MoM. 30% Probability: Alternative Case (USD Weakness). 10% Probability: Wildcard Scenario (Risk-On Rally). 🧠 The Data-Driven Rationale This setup scored a -5 on my quantitative thesis model, indicating a strong bearish conviction. The core of this is the one-sided event risk. With Australia's calendar completely empty, the AUD is a sitting duck. Meanwhile, a volley of tier-one U.S. data (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales) is expected to confirm a robust economy. This fundamental divergence, combined with a technical picture of price coiling below long-term resistance, creates the conditions for a catalyst-driven drop. ⛓️ Intermarket & Statistical Edge Further analysis of market correlations and forward-looking models reinforces the bearish bias. 🌐 Correlations: The positive correlation of AUD/USD with equities (SPY: +0.31) suggests that a strong USD report, which could pressure stocks, would create a direct headwind for the Aussie. 🎲 Monte Carlo Simulation: While the mean outcome is neutral, the model's 5th percentile for price is down at 0.6503 , highlighting the statistical risk of a significant downside move if the catalyst fires. ✅ The Trade Setup 📉 Bias: Bearish / Short 👉 Entry: Watch for a bearish reversal pattern on the 1H or 4H chart within the $0.6550 resistance zone. ⛔️ Stop Loss: A decisive daily close above the 0.6622 resistance level. 🎯 Target: 0.6458 (June low-day close). Good luck, and trade safe.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25AUDUSD SHORT FORECAST Q3 D10 W28 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily Order block identified ✅4H Order Block identified ✅1H Order Block identified 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT