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At the Jackson Hole Symposium last week, Fed Chair Powell officially announced a pivot, indicating a possible interest rate cut. On the other hand, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that while inflationary pressures are easing, it is too early to declare victory, and caution is needed to avoid excessive rate cuts. As a result, the pound hit its highest level in two years and five months, putting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, mentioned that it is still premature to cut the benchmark interest rate, adding that core inflation remains high and the economic outlook is very uncertain.
- On August 29, Germany's August Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Q2 GDP will be released.
- On August 30, the Eurozone's August Consumer Price Index and the U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released.
- On September 4, Australia's Q2 GDP will be released.
AUD/USD has risen to its previous high. It is expected that downward pressure will intensify from now on. Even if the rise continues, it is likely to form a top around the 0.69000 line. Resistance in this area could cause a short-term retreat to the 0.66000 line, after which a rebound and the formation of an upward trend are expected.
If, contrary to expectations, the 0.69000 line is breached, or if the downward movement becomes excessively strong, we will quickly revise our strategy.
