back to $30 - AVAX weekly update August 8 - 14thAvalanche (AVAX) is currently unfolding a highly impulsive Elliott Wave structure across multiple timeframes. According to the updated wave count, the market is in the early stages of Primary Wave 3, which contains Intermediate Wave 3, Minor Wave 3, and we are now completing Minute Wave , a shallow pullback expected to bottom between $22.00–$22.62 (0.618–0.764 retracement zone).
Once Wave is complete, AVAX is expected to launch into Wave , with Fibonacci extensions pointing toward the $25.8–$28.0 region. This would be followed by a brief Wave correction and a final push into Wave of 3, with projected targets around $29.8–$33.0. The fact that all these third waves across different degrees align at the same time sets the stage for a powerful and potentially explosive rally.
From a sentiment and positioning standpoint, the environment supports this bullish scenario. Funding rates are positive, and open interest is rising, indicating growing market participation on the long side. However, the liquidity heatmap still shows significant liquidity resting below current price, which opens the door for a brief liquidity sweep — especially if retail traders become overly aggressive during early stages of the move.
This setup also aligns with macroeconomic expectations. The market is increasingly front-running a potential rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool currently pricing in a 89.4% probability. This is injecting optimism into risk markets — including crypto — and may explain the emerging wave of retail positioning.
That said, if leverage builds up too fast, a classic "sell-the-news" scenario or long liquidation event could briefly disrupt the trend. But structurally, AVAX appears to be well-positioned, especially as institutional footprints in the form of order blocks near Wave (2) lows suggest smart money already entered — with retail now providing the momentum fuel.
As long as the current support zone holds, AVAX could be on track for a multi-leg breakout that extends well into the $30+ region — driven by technical structure, liquidity positioning, and macroeconomic catalysts converging at once.
