AALD trade ideas
AAL 2021-01-23AAL has broken out of its 1.5-month bull flag consolidation, backtested, and is currently sitting on top of the 20 EMA .
In Elliott waves , it is in a 1-2-1-2-1-2.
Technically this is as bullish as it gets.
Fundamental risks
1. Vaccine rollout has been slower than planned
2. Earnings is on the 27th.
Conservative PT is the bull flag equal legs target of 23.
SL under 14.66
BOUEY TAH FLYING DEB!! ~ AAL 45% Upside (Detailed Idea)Bears Dr. Fauci is no Longer in the Main Stream media! Time to Bear on something else, Tech maybe for political drama !?
NASDAQ:AAL performed the worst between other American Listed Airlines in 2020.
Given the Jerome Powell Printing BRRRR or Inflation where more and more people are looking towards Risk On Assets in a cheap interest rate environment where a leap of new capital pushing the markets to newer highs.
The 2019 28$ Traded Stock is at least in my opinion only, should be back at 30$ valuation post COVID.
TSA reported that Holiday season showed a 50% drop in passengers which brings us to todays on the money traded price at 15$.
Countries have started running out of vaccines to administer and others are speculating that "The Back to Normal" is this Summer even if vaccines are not rolled fully where businesses are no longer quite around the world on beaurocratic intervention in the markets without stimulus such as movie theaters, barber shops restaurants on main street.
AAL 22$ Valuation is justified as this is a price we have seen AFTER COVID just 6 months back.
Today we got vaccines being announce in many countries, one with cheese and the other with barbeque sauce ... some countries are offering their people to choose which vaccine to take The US Pfizer / UK AstraZeneca / Chinese Who Cares! ...
Back in Q3 we have seen a proliferation in the amount of bookings and sales through Royal Caribbean Cruse lines, Norwegian and Carnival Cruses while hotels are have shown much better improvement in bookings and restaurants are back to business now.
Yes UK with their problems and updated virus woes to keep big pharma liquid is normal.
Note:~ I/We have a large position in AAL American Airlines 15.68, which by the way is cheaper than what directors purchased their shares in February 2020 which was around 25 - 18$.
$AAL | Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders$AAL formed a bullish inverse head and shoulders. Watch for upside continuation.
This trade is similar to the setup I shared earlier on $BA (see my idea below)
Targets on chart.
Let me know what you think in the comments and leave a like if you agree with my analysis! 👍🏽
Bull Flag Earnings 1-28 BMONo telling what earnings will be..and not sure how market will respond..Long entry is 16.07 or where you see price clear top trendline of flag. It helps if it does so in an uptrend to boot..
A flag should be a short term pattern, less than 3 weeks in formation. If a flag goes on too long, it will get too heavy and pull the flag pole down (o: Look at the steepness of your pole to see just how long of a flag that pole can support.
A flag looks like 2 parallel lines that tilt against the trend. A tight flag is often better than a loose flag with lot's of space between price(candles). A pennant looks different and looks kinda like a falling wedge (falling wedges are longer in formation than pennants ) attached and the trendlines tend to converge at the apex. The yellow ABC is there for illustration purposes with C being possible low of the flag, A being the beginning of the pole and B as the end of the pole. If you were trading the flag verses the ABC pattern, after flag breaks upper trendline, then C would be a possible stop.
There are several ways to compute targets..You can use the magnet and move your pole to the low point of the bull flag (high point of a bear flag ) or some take the length of the pole before the flag is formed and add it o the break out level of the flag. I cheated for this write up because since this flag has not broken out, I do not know for sure where the low point is yet but I am already in this stock. There are other methods as well but i do not know them ..lol and 2 is enough for me. I try not to get overloaded. I have found the forementioned methods yield approximately the same targets for a true flag depending on the size of the flag and the pole. This flag could possible pull back some more and form a longer flag as the pole would support it (unless it got eons long that is). Break out would be a break of the upper trendline and an uptrend for a bull flag .
A flag may appear close to the top or mid way in the price trend but you really need a general uptrend leading up to the flag. Sometimes the flatter the base, the larger the break can be (ie. not a humongous pullback)
By no means a recommendation
AAL forecast ideaImportant to understand, that this company after virus feels very bad, so I can’t show good forecast. I see here the shape of flag and maybe the price after this shape will increase📈Good luck. Please leave your feedback in comments.
AAL BullDetails in chart.
Price is currently in a support zone. Good time to buy in... COVID is clearing up slowly very slowly but very slowly but slowly surely. Will it test 50% of the last peak? I think that this is the move to consider.
What do you think?
AAL PT $18, $22 or $12Been watching AAL for quite some time. with Biden coming into office, i anticipate bailouts all over the place as money doesnt matter anymore.
I am looking at 3 plays on this
AAL 02/05 expiry:
20/25 call debit spread
Risk $100. Max profit $7900
17/25 call debit spread
Risk $100. Max profit $2300
15/25 call debit spread
Risk $100. Max profit 900
The patient will receive the fruit of the laborAAl setup for the next coming moves, looking for a move back into the channel marking our road back to $30 towards the end of the year.
please use your own DD and wait for the right set up's
Cheers to you all!
AAL exhaustion over?AAL giving a possible long setup, waiting for $16 to be confirmed as a support before opening options on the way out.
American Airlines, is 2021 a good year to invest? American Airline (AAL) has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as have all the other airlines, which has subsequently destroyed the demand for air travel as people were forced into lockdown. AAL stock went from $29.32 high in February down to $8.23 low in May. Since then, the price has been fluctuating, bouncing up only slightly to the current level of $15.68. This stock is untouchable for investors at the moment, despite the progress being made with the vaccine and promises that demand will return to sustainable levels during summer 2021. The oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, sold his stock in AAL in Spring in 2020. Despite coining the phrase ‘Be greedy, when the others are fearful’, the famous long-term investor has changed his views regarding the future of the airlines.
But is 2021 a better year to buy this stock?
Financial Factors
First, let us look at the company’s financials. American Airlines, which has a $9.55 billion market cap, had troubles even before the pandemic. While operating around 700 flights per day into 50 different countries, the company already had revenues falling annually by 9%. According to the Wall Street Journal, as additional travel restrictions were put during summer, AAL’s third-quarter revenue plummeted by 73% year-on-year, reporting $2.4 billion in net losses. Despite some people still travelling during the Christmas period, the demand level is nowhere near enough and the airline continues to burn through cash daily to stay afloat. Based on the projection of the International Air Transport Association, total losses for the airline industry will be almost $40 billion in 2021 and a rebound in air travel demand will only be in 2024. The projections from the Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs put the stock price in the range of $15-$20, advising to stay away from investing more until the turnaround in the pandemic.
Technical Analysis
Based on the chart analysis of AAL, price action broke a strong support level of $25 during the start of the pandemic, this level will now act as a strong resistance and will take significant buying pressure to overcome. Price has been below the 200SMA since April 2018 and 50SMA crossed below the 200SMA, known as the Death Cross, in December 2018, further signalling the downtrend’s strength. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed once the stock hit the low of $8.23, a warning of potential continuation lower in the coming months. The lowest level for this stock was after the 2008 crash at $1.42, so there is plenty of room to go lower. Brokerage firms report increased buying of airline stocks since they became cheap enough to buy and hold for the long-term, stopping AAL from plunging lower so far. But the situation may change drastically if air travel remains restricted.
So, should I invest now?
The eyes of investors are on the spring and summer season. Reports from the World Health Organization suggest that lockdowns will ease once warm weather arrives in March and April. Further developments of the vaccine and its distribution bring hope to see air travel demand improve. As American Airlines announced a strategic alliance with JetBlue on January 12, investors are more optimistic that such measures will keep the stock from collapsing.
For an average investor with limited capital investing in this stock right now is dangerous as the pandemic continues to batter air travel, Until the stock finds a way to close at least above $25, there is a real danger of falling into a bull trap. Best to wait until Spring to evaluate potential entry into this stock. Big banks and Hedge Funds will, of course, continue to hold AAL stock long-haul, because they can afford it. But should there be another hit in the USA and worsening conditions of the pandemic, they will immediately sell it.
Important to remember, that this company is protected by the US government is unlikely to sink completely. Additional bailouts will be ready if needed. We shall know more after Biden’s inauguration on January 20 and see how his administration plans to support the airline's industry.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments!
Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
breakout!Aggressively broken out of a down trend with bullish divergence. waiting for retest to enter.
AAL - Still Valueable StockFalling stock from 2018 and COVID-19 push it more and for many Analyst it's under-performing stock but it should have a fair value and now it's below from real value. After Vaccine race it will rise for some time.
The Company's primary business activity is the operation of a network air carrier, providing scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo.
It's not just one carrier and travel demand will be high in 2021.
AAL at support and ready to break to the upsideAAL at support and ready to break to the upside. R/r is favorable. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.
AMERICAN AIRLINESHi everyone, I am VERY new to trading and learning the ropes. Staring small and evaluating if I can make money doing this. Does anyone have any opinions and thoughts on American Airlines stock. I'm hoping it rises this year, so guess its a long term hold.
Alex
