APPLE: 3 year Channel Up targets $285.Apple is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.788, MACD = -0.260, ADX = 30.978) as the recent weakness impeded the price from making the decisive bullish break-out above it. The 1W RSI structure though indicates that this is a bottom formation and it is evident on the Channel Up that the April 7th low has been the start of the new bullish wave. The first bullish wave which also started after a -32% correction, made a first peak on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. We are bullish on Apple long term, TP = 285.00.
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AAPDB trade ideas
AAPL Breaking Structure! Gamma Says Caution — Is $195 Next? 🍎 AAPL Breaking Structure! Gamma Says Caution — Is $195 Next? 🔻
🧬 GEX Options Sentiment Analysis:
* Gamma Key Levels:
* CALL Walls:
* $202.50 (moderate resistance)
* $205 = Gamma Wall / Call Resistance
* $210–215 = Higher walls unlikely to reach short-term without catalyst
* PUT Walls:
* $198 = 2nd PUT Wall and Heavy Volume Level (HVL)
* $195.70 = Highest negative NET GEX / PUT magnet
* Below $195 opens risk to $192.50, $190 (GEX7/10 cluster)
* Options Metrics:
* IVR: 21.6
* IVx avg: 30.2
* PUT Flow: 0% (!!) – no PUT buyers showing up (caution on reversals)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔴🔴🔴 (very bearish tilt)
* Interpretation:
* AAPL is hugging the gamma flip zone at $198–$200. If it breaks and stays under $198, dealers may accelerate hedging, sending it down toward $195/$192.
* Call side is weak; momentum buyers missing.
🧠 15-Minute SMC Structure Breakdown:
* Current Price: $197.18
* Structure:
* CHoCH confirmed just below supply at $198.50 → bearish sign.
* Repeated rejections from the supply zone (pink box).
* Broke ascending wedge/trendline support on rising volume — bearish pattern confirmation.
* Demand box sits near $195.70–$196.50.
* Volume:
* Bearish volume increasing during rejection = potential for trend continuation lower.
⚔️ Trade Scenarios:
🟥 Bearish Breakdown Setup:
* Trigger: Confirmed close below $196.50 with increasing volume.
* Target 1: $195.70 (GEX/SMC demand)
* Target 2: $192.50 (GEX7 magnet)
* Stop-loss: $198.50
Strong confluence with gamma, SMC structure, and volume break = high-probability short.
🟩 Bullish Reversal Setup (Low Probability):
* Trigger: Reclaim of $198.89 with conviction
* Target 1: $200
* Target 2: $202.50 (CALL wall)
* Stop-loss: Below $196.45
Only consider if SPY/QQQ stage reversal bounce and AAPL leads.
💡 My Thoughts:
* AAPL looks weak and vulnerable heading into Tuesday.
* If price loses $196.45, gamma + structure suggests fast flush to $195 and possibly $192.
* This is not the spot to go long blindly — let the level reclaim first.
* PUT flow being 0% despite this setup suggests retail hasn't stepped in — this could change rapidly.
🔚 Conclusion:
AAPL is breaking down from structure and trending toward gamma PUT support. Options sentiment and Smart Money structure are both aligning for bearish continuation — short bounces are sell opportunities unless $199+ is reclaimed with strength.
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage your risk and follow your plan.
Would you like to format this for a TradingView post next or combine all into one GEX/TA wrap-up?
Apple (AAPL) Stock Analysis Apple's stock (AAPL) is currently trading at $201.15, reflecting a modest uptick of 0.47% today. Despite this slight gain, the stock has experienced a 22% decline year-to-date, underperforming its tech peers.
Technical Overview
The stock is navigating a descending broadening pattern, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. Notably, a "death cross" formation occurred in April, where the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, signalling potential further declines.
Support Levels: $193 and $169
Resistance Levels: $215 and $237
A break above the $215 resistance could pave the way for a rally towards $237. Conversely, a drop below the $193 support might lead to a decline towards $169.
Macroeconomic Factors
Recent political developments have introduced volatility. President Trump's proposal of a 25% tariff on iPhones not manufactured in the U.S. has raised concerns. In response, Apple is reportedly shifting a significant portion of its production to India to mitigate potential tariff impacts.
Fundamental Metrics
Market Capitalization: Approximately $3.28 trillion.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 33.72.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $6.42.
While Apple's P/E ratio is above its 10-year average, indicating a premium valuation, the company's robust earnings and strategic initiatives continue to attract investor interest.
Conclusion
Apple's stock is at a critical juncture, influenced by technical patterns and macroeconomic factors. Investors should monitor the $215 resistance and $193 support levels closely. A break in either direction could signal the stock's next significant move.
#AAPL - Pivot Point: $197.81#AAPL Trading Update — May 29, 2025
Current Price: $201.36
Pivot Point: $197.81
Upside Targets:
1️⃣ $209.99 — First resistance level to watch for profit booking
2️⃣ $216.49 — Confirmation of bullish momentum if price breaks above
3️⃣ $223.50 — Stronger resistance, potential for trend continuation
4️⃣ $230.50 — Longer-term target signaling significant upside potential
Downside Targets:
1️⃣ $185.65 — Immediate support, key level for bulls to defend
2️⃣ $179.13 — A more significant retracement level, watch for bounce or breakdown
3️⃣ $172.13 — Possible floor if selling pressure intensifies
4️⃣ $165.12 — Strong support zone, critical for trend reversal risk
Support Level: $192.17 — Acts as the first buffer zone; a break below could trigger further downside
Resistance Level: $203.49 — Short-term resistance; a clear breakout above this level would open the door to upside targets
AAPL Bulls May Regain Momentum – Price Action Suggest a Bounce 🔍 GEX-Based Options Insight:
* GEX Cluster sits heavy at 204–206, marking a Gamma Wall / Resistance Zone.
* Highest NET GEX levels suggest 205–206 is a magnet if price builds strength.
* IVR: 16.2, IVX is low, indicating cheap premium for call buyers.
* Calls: 0.6% bias, showing a neutral-to-light bullish flow.
🟩 GEX Support: 197.5
🟥 PUT Walls: Below 192.5 and 190 (farther from current level)
🧠 Technical View (1H Chart):
* AAPL is pulling back into a demand zone while still respecting the upward channel.
* Just formed a CHoCH, signaling a potential reversal back up.
* Price is sitting on channel support + demand, with a recent BOS confirming bullish structure intact.
* Volume during this pullback is lower than the prior bullish leg—healthy retrace.
🔁 Trading Idea (for calls):
Entry:
🟢 Around 198.5–199 (channel and OB support zone)
Target 1:
📈 201.50 – retest of supply / GEX resistance
Target 2:
📈 204.88–206 – Gamma Wall target
Stop Loss:
🔴 Below 196.50, breaks OB and structure
🎯 Ideal Option Play:
* July 5th or July 12th 202 Calls
* Low IV makes this a decent R/R for directional play
* Momentum confirmation on reclaim of 200.80 gives confidence
💬 If AAPL can defend the current structure and flip 200.80 intraday, we may see a gamma chase back to 204+.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade with a plan and proper risk management.
Impact on the Dollar and Forex — Artavion AnalyticsThe development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) — especially the digital yuan (e-CNY) — is becoming a key factor in transforming global currency flows. While the US dollar still dominates, the architecture of global liquidity is beginning to shift.
At Artavion, we see the e-CNY not just as a technological experiment but as a tool of China’s currency policy. Its goal is to strengthen the yuan’s role in international settlements and reduce dependence on the dollar, particularly in developing regions.
Why the Digital Yuan Matters
The e-CNY is already being used in China for retail payments and is being tested in cross-border transactions (e.g., in the mBridge project with the UAE and Thailand). This enables the creation of alternative payment systems not tied to SWIFT.
If the digital yuan gains broader acceptance, especially for commodity and energy settlements, its role in forex will grow, potentially weakening the dollar’s monopoly in certain regions.
CBDCs and Forex Structure
CBDCs won’t displace the dollar in the near term, but they are already influencing the structure of currency trading:
New currency pairs are emerging, especially in Asia;
Transactions are becoming faster and cheaper, particularly in the B2B segment;
Market participants are adjusting strategies to real-time settlements and the potential programmability of currencies.
Risks and Limitations
Privacy: CBDCs are under full state control;
Fragmentation: There is no unified technical standard across different countries’ CBDCs;
Geopolitics: The rise of the e-CNY could intensify currency competition with the dollar.
Artavion’s Conclusion
The digital yuan will not replace the dollar, but it is creating an alternative — especially in regions seeking autonomy from Western financial infrastructure. For traders and investors, this means reassessing currency risks and exploring new opportunities in decentralized settlement channels.
Fintech or Government Regulation? — A Perspective from MacromicsStablecoins have evolved from a supplementary tool into a cornerstone of the digital economy. They are used in DeFi, cross-border settlements, and provide liquidity in crypto markets. Today, the question is not whether stablecoins are needed, but who will control them — private fintech companies or government regulators.
Fintech: Flexibility, Speed, Innovation
Projects like USDC, USDT, and Paxos have demonstrated that private companies are capable of launching robust digital assets, quickly adapting them to markets, APIs, wallets, and decentralized platforms.
Advantages:
24/7 availability;
Operational independence;
Flexible integration architecture.
The downside is legal uncertainty. Without licenses and oversight, issuers are exposed to regulatory risk.
Government Pressure and CBDCs
The US, EU, and China are moving toward tight control over stablecoin issuance. The EU has adopted the MiCA regulation, while the US is discussing mandatory licensing of issuers. China and India are betting exclusively on CBDCs, banning private stablecoins altogether.
While CBDCs currently lack the flexibility of private solutions, they offer an alternative for the public sector and B2B settlements.
Forex Market: Myth or Strategy? — Analysis by Valtrix GroupEvery year in June, forex traders pay close attention to historical price movements, hoping to identify recurring seasonal patterns. But does June really offer a strategic edge, or is it a marketing myth and an overrated idea?
At Valtrix Group, we view seasonality as a secondary but useful filter — especially during periods of low volatility and a lack of macroeconomic catalysts.
What Does History Tell Us?
Historical data on major currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD) shows that June often exhibits:
A rise in volatility in the first half of the month — driven by inflation data releases (U.S., EU);
Moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, particularly between the FOMC meeting and the quarterly earnings season;
In some years — flat movements caused by low liquidity ahead of the summer holiday season.
However, long-term statistics are mixed. For example, from 2013 to 2023, EUR/USD rose in June in 6 out of 10 years and declined in 4, showing no strong directional bias.
Why Seasonality Doesn’t Always Work
The forex market is driven not only by technicals and statistics but also by macroeconomics, geopolitics, and monetary policy. When major events occur in June (Fed meetings, crises, elections), seasonal patterns can easily be disrupted.
Moreover, algorithmic trading and arbitrage strategies reduce the likelihood of consistent price movements repeating year after year.
Why ETH Is Regaining Investor Focus — Lexenvide OverviewAfter several months of relative stagnation, Ethereum (ETH) has returned to the spotlight for both institutional and retail investors. Since the beginning of June, ETH has strengthened by more than 15%, breaking through key resistance levels and showing signs of renewed momentum.
At Lexenvide, we view ETH’s rise not as a short-term speculation, but as the result of a combination of fundamental drivers, improved technical structure, and growing expectations around infrastructure upgrades.
What’s Driving Renewed Interest in ETH?
Approval of Ethereum ETF in the U.S.
The SEC’s decision to approve a spot Ethereum ETF (expected this summer) has been a key catalyst for renewed interest. Similar to the Bitcoin ETF, it opens the door for institutional capital — including pension and index funds — to enter the Ethereum ecosystem.
Rising Activity in DeFi and Staking
Following the Dencun upgrade in March, network fees have dropped, sparking renewed activity in DeFi protocols, particularly in L2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism. At the same time, staking volumes are rising: according to Beacon Chain data, the share of staked ETH is approaching 27%.
Strengthening Market Structure
Amid moderate volatility, ETH is increasingly being seen as the “second digital gold,” especially in the context of a shaky stock market. Token supply reduction via burning (EIP-1559) is also adding upward pressure on price.
Cryptocurrencies in Central Bank in 2025 — Analysis by BITDPSThe global financial architecture is shifting, driven by a dual erosion of trust: from the dollar to gold, and from traditional currencies to digital assets. In 2025, central banks around the world are revising their strategies to include assets once considered alternative — gold and cryptocurrencies.
At BITDPS, we analyze global central bank portfolio decisions and observe that gold and digital assets are no longer viewed as opposites, but as complementary.
Gold: A Safe-Haven Asset Amid Geopolitical Tensions
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks have added over 1,200 tonnes of gold to their reserves since the beginning of 2024 — a record high in recent decades. Key reasons include:
Geopolitical instability;
Erosion of trust in the dollar due to U.S. monetary expansion;
Strengthening of local currencies in emerging economies (India, China, Turkey).
Gold is once again being seen as a neutral and sanction-resistant asset, especially in the face of secondary sanctions and potential exclusion from SWIFT.
Cryptocurrencies: Cautious Integration, Not Ignorance
While Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are not yet part of official reserves, some central banks are:
Testing CBDCs inspired by blockchain infrastructure;
Exploring asset tokenization models, including bonds and gold;
Investing in research on digital financial tools for cross-border settlements.
🗨️ “It’s not about buying Bitcoin — it’s about transforming how we think about money,” emphasizes a BITDPS analyst.
BITDPS Conclusion
In 2025, gold is solidifying its role in central bank portfolios as a hedge against political and currency risks. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, are emerging as catalysts for digital reform and technological experimentation. Both asset classes are now core components of long-term resilience strategies.
Stabilization or New Growth Wave? — Analysis by Paribas GroupThe launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the anticipation of similar approval for Ethereum have been among the key drivers of crypto market growth in the first half of 2025. However, after the initial liquidity inflows, the market has shifted into a sideways consolidation phase. This has investors asking: have we reached the peak, or is the market preparing for its next move?
At Paribas Group, we see the current state as a phase of consolidation — not the end of the cycle. Growth fueled by ETFs is not just a “one-day hype” but a structural change in how investors access crypto assets.
What Have ETFs Brought to the Crypto Market?
With ETF launches in the U.S., followed by expansion into Europe and Asia, cryptocurrencies have, for the first time, gained institutionally regulated access:
Over $15 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in the first five months;
New classes of investors — pension funds, insurance firms, asset managers;
Reduced asset volatility amid more stable liquidity.
This is shaping a new investment culture: shifting from short-term speculation to long-term positioning.
Why Has the Market Slowed Down?
Following the initial surge, several developments occurred:
Profit-taking by retail participants;
Capital rotation between Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of an ETH ETF;
Waiting for new catalysts — such as Fed monetary policy, DeFi regulation, and ETF rollouts in Asia.
🗨️ “Market silence is not weakness — it’s a phase of accumulation,” notes a Paribas Group analyst.
Paribas Group Conclusion
We expect a second wave of crypto market growth in the second half of 2025, provided the following factors align:
Approval of an Ethereum ETF and rising institutional interest in altcoins;
Easing of monetary policy;
Progress in the legal framework for DeFi and asset tokenization.
AAPL at a Key Breakout Zone! Can Bulls Hold This Level?🔍 Technical Analysis Overview (Daily + 1H)
Apple (AAPL) just printed a powerful bullish candle, reclaiming $201 with strong volume. This move broke above recent consolidation and swept minor liquidity under $196 before reclaiming key levels. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) lens, we’ve confirmed a bullish CHoCH and BOS (Break of Structure), with price now entering a potential supply zone.
* Trend: Short-term reversal to the upside.
* Volume: Strong breakout volume supports bullish continuation.
* Liquidity Sweep: Price swept lows around $195 and reclaimed — a classic SMC setup.
* Rejection Watch: Overhead supply around $202–$204 is the next test zone.
🧠 Key Levels to Watch
* Resistance Zones:
* $202.5 → GEX3rd CALL Wall
* $204 → Highest positive NetGamma / Call Bias
* $207.5 → GEX2
* Support Zones:
* $197.5 → GEX9
* $192 → HVL + 50% Zone
* $190 → GEX Put Support
* $185 → 3rd Put Wall
⚙️ Options Sentiment (GEX Analysis)
* 📈 GEX Tilt: Call walls dominating from $200 → $210.
* 🧲 Gamma Magnet: $202–$205 could act as a magnet zone short-term.
* ❗ Volatility: IV Rank at 21 and IV% below avg = room to expand.
* 🛡️ Put Protection: Strong GEX support around $190–$192 — buyers stepped in here.
🔄 Intraday Outlook (1H Chart)
Price already filled the green demand zone (~$195–$197), swept key liquidity, and confirmed CHoCH. The strong bullish engulfing candle closed above the descending trendline and is now entering the supply zone marked in red.
* 📌 Possible Scenarios:
* Bullish: If price reclaims and holds above $201.30 → watch for $204–$205 squeeze.
* Bearish: Rejection at $202–$204 and loss of $200 could push us back to $197 retest.
🔁 Scalping Levels
* Breakout Long Trigger: Above $202.5
* 🎯 Target: $204.5 → $207
* ❌ Stop: Below $200.3
* Short-term Reversal Short: From $203.5–204 zone
* 🎯 Target: $200.5 then $198
* ❌ Stop: Above $205
🎯 Swing Trade Plan
* Entry: $200.50–201.00 zone (hold retest)
* Stop: $196.5
* Target:
* TP1 = $204.5
* TP2 = $207.5
* TP3 = $210
🧠 Final Thoughts
AAPL is entering a high-confluence zone both technically and via options data. If bulls hold above $200, there’s a strong chance we tag $204+ soon. But keep in mind — heavy resistance above may cause choppiness. Ideal strategy? Trail stops tight and scale out into GEX walls.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
AAPL: Premium PlayApple beat expectations this quarter—revenue, profit, EPS—all slightly better than analysts hoped. But the stock dropped to $196.26, down from $212.83. Why? Investors are still worried about tariffs, margin pressure, and supply chain changes.
Tim Cook talked about strong product sales (iPhone, Mac, iPad) and all-time high Services revenue. But he also admitted tariffs and regulatory issues are weighing on Apple’s outlook.
My Covered Call Strategy
I’m selling the $202.5 call and buying the $210 call for June 27, 2025. Big money seems to be doing the same—there was a huge premium sale over $2 million, likely betting Apple stays range-bound short term.
- Why this works:
- Resistance near $202.50 gives me a clear ceiling
- Apple fundamentals are strong, but macro risk caps upside
Chart Notes
- Resistance: $202.50 and $210
- Support: Around $192.50
Bottom line:
I like this trade as a way to bring in income while defining my risk. If Apple grinds sideways or pushes a bit higher, the trade still pays. Clean structure, high odds.
AAPL ema sloping downHeard about Trump's lil phone. Chile...
Well AAPL i aiming for 195 - 193. With this trump phone news, I am thinking it can go lower... toward my blue line. Not all in one day, but not regaining 201 and holding it is not good.
Hoping this posts as I have been having issues publicly posting over the last 2 weeks.
AAPL Monthly Support and Resistance Lines for June 2025AAPL Monthly Support and Resistance Lines for June 2025, valid only until the end of June.
Overview:
These purple lines serve as support and resistance levels when the price approaches these lines from either the bottom or top direction. Depending on the price movement direction, traders can enter long or short positions.
Trading Timeframes
I typically utilize 30-minute candlesticks for swing trading options, with a holding period of up to 2-3 days. Additionally, 3-hour or 4-hour timeframes can also be used for swing trades lasting up to 2 weeks to capture significant upward or downward movements.
I post these at the beginning of each month, and they remain valid until the end of that month.
AAPL BUYScenario 1
BUY AAPL at 202.00, riding it back up to 258.00 to 270.00 for Profit Targets, Stop Loss is at 196.00!
Scenario 2
BUY AAPL by setting a BUY LIMIT at 194.00, riding it back up to 258.00 to 270.00 for Profit Targets, Stop Loss is at 189.00!
WARNING: This is only a journal of my opinion of the market and only for my journaling purpose. This information and publication are NOT meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a risky business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
Time to buy? Too much negative press. Buy in Fear. Apple has faced a significant amount of negative press recently, which has created a lot of fear and critical perceptions. This situation indicates that in times of fear, you should buy, and in times of greed, you should sell. As a result, I have taken a substantial long position on Apple.
The flag pattern is nearly complete, suggesting that a move is imminent. My stop loss is set at $196, with an expected profit from a positive breakout at $223, indicating potential gains of over 10%. There is further upside potential to exceed >$230.
Apple is a strong long-term hold regardless of current fluctuations. It has an extensive and mature ecosystem, and this is not a company I would bet against. If you already own Apple products, you understand how unlikely it is that you would ever switch to something else.
APPLE The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 203.93
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 201.90
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK