AAPL taking back the lead over GOOGTrend shows time for a change in line with future AI push from Apple
AAPL trade ideas
AAPL Wave 5 Might be Complete. Always have to worry about additional spike outs in wave 5's but the case for an AAPL top is improving.
We made the parabolic rally we'd expect to see in a wave 5 top mentioned last year.
Over the last while we're stalled out and recently we have 4 hour charts starting to look like bear breaks.
A completed AAPL wave 5 would be a major event.
Apple possible bearish outlook Everything is explained and visible on the chart, we are in front of a huge rising wedge which consist basically of the whole life of this stock. We will soon enter the third period of the life of this stock, each period lasting 22 years, which could see the stock breaking out of this rising wedge formation.
AAPL BUY+++AAPL is oversold here and due for a bounce to $175 area then my longer term target of $155 should be seen.
AAPL may have made a big bullish wave 4All of 2022 may prove to be only the penultimate move of the bull trend rather than the end itself. While the selling was strong at various times in 2022, we did not break the 38 fib and we did not trigger a capitulation style signal (Usually even if it wicked we see some sign of a strong break by now).
Above the last lows, bears have a lot of risk of AAPL running the high. These extensions may go as far as a 161 extension of the drop (Which would be a big strong move). It's also possible it makes a one tick trap style move as discussed in indices.
APPLE Long-term buying commencing.Apple (AAPL) is exactly -15% down since the December 14 2023 High and is approaching the Support Zone of the October 26 2023 Low. We are currently on the 3rd major correction of the last 18 months and being that close to both the Support Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, suggests that institutional buying should be initiated.
If the current overall market volatility evolves into a short-term correction towards the Fed Rate Decision later this month, then there is always the possibility of Apple experiencing another -10% decline. But the upside even from the current level is greater at almost +30% and that is a conservative target based purely on the Higher highs trend-line since the August 17 2022 High.
We recommend buying now and if the price drops more as mentioned, a final buy on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been untouched for almost 8 years (since June 28 2016)! Our Target for late Q2 is $215.00. Note also that the 1D RSI hasn't been that low (oversold at 23.00) since February 02 2018, which adds more to the bullish case.
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$AAPL is breaking below the strong resistance NASDAQ:AAPL broke below 180 and is marking the upside cycle end. In the video you will see a detailed technical Elliott Wave analysis along with price action and trade setup
$APPL aiming for an IHS pattern perhaps given low RSI$APPL plan for the next few days is based on the potential test of $165.5. I think once we see action around this level, $APPL could bounce nicely to around $175. The chart does not favors a steady recovery. I think as long as $APPL's management is unable to articulate a credible strategy around AI in the short term the stock will continue to be weak. Considering the low RSI, I'd favor a bounce. I think $APPL could support the market if they tank other magnificent 7. We may see NASDAQ:META tanking from the $490s into the $400s for example while $APPL takes of into the $180-190s by Q2 or so. Perhaps it is also a good time for the Board to consider replacing Tim Cook to a visionary, as Tim has been a good operator but for another time. We need someone like John Ives or similar. Let's see what the market brings for $APPL in the coming days. Here's a path that I see could develop> Inverse Head and Shoulders, repairing of some singles around 177-178, and then test of 180.9. Of course market makers will ensure to keep most premiums as usual.
AAPL Drops Below $174 to $177.50 Support ZoneAAPL continues to show weakness by dropping below the light blue support zone for a second time. AAPL is trading below support and there is likely to be a short-term rebound here. I would look for a bounce around $165 to $168.
Let's look at the VALUE of $AAPL at $3 TrillionWhat do we get when we buy NASDAQ:AAPL shares for a valuation of $3 trillion?
We get $100 billion in free cash flow. (3 year average free cash flow is ~$100B)
Over 10 years revenues have more than doubled from $170B in 2013 to $383B and debt has jumped from $17B to FWB:95B to pay dividends and to buy back stock which has dropped from 26B shares to under 16B shares.
So, if you get another 10 years of this performance, NASDAQ:AAPL free cash flow will reach $200B and provide a 6.6% free cash flow yield.
You can already earn 10% free cash flow yields in hundreds of other stocks now and not 10 years in the future.
We don't need to predict the future movement of Apple shares but instead we need to know what our probabilities are and make our decisions accordingly.
I have been a big fan of Apple products and use iMacs, iPads, iPhones and have used ApplePay a bit lately. My first Apple was the Macintosh in 1986 back in college and then the Apple LaserWriter which was a revolution in printing. I even used Macintosh on the trading desk at S.G. Warburg & Co, Inc (Now UBS) and my quotes were faster than the fastest Wall Street computers at the time. So I have plenty of good memories and have been an advocate for Apple my entire adult life (40 years so far).
My question here is: What upside is there remaining for NASDAQ:AAPL ? What is the risk of hanging in there for that upside? What is a better return available for your investment capital?
The answers to these questions are unknown, of course, but are the key answers to seek.
The chart above is first
1. Stock Price
2. Free Cash Flow FY
3. PS Ratio
4. Avg Basic Shares O/S
5. Total Revenue FY
6. Market Capitalization
These are the key factors to track over long periods of time and now with inflation over 10 years as high as it is, the inflation factor is even more important to find the companies that can increase prices to match inflation and which are struggling under heavy competition and no ability to cut costs and raise prices.
This is a great time to ask yourself the key questions and decide to re-allocate your NASDAQ:AAPL investment into many other, more attractive investments.
Time will tell if that was wise or not, in hindsight.
Wishing you all peace and prosperity.
Tim
January 22, 2024 12:37PM EST
$AAPL Finally OversoldNASDAQ:AAPL finally oversold on the daily. Taking a swing for calls 180C .47 for this week.
$AAPL Long call $180. As per my analysis, apple must be Bullish. this is the right time to enter the Dip. Be a smart trader. I am sharing my analysis and important support and resistance for $AAPL.
AAPL (4Mar24)AAPL at a nice bounce level with some confluence. Tried to take AAPL up today and got stopped out. My trigger was hit - the trade just didn't work. I can live with that.
AAPL DailyAAPL daily indicators went oversold, wouldn't be surprised if they pump AAPL now to sustain the melt up.
Too much divergence for me to stay bullish on the market, and it's not a good idea to trade scared, so I'm opting to stay out. Seeing AAPL oversold is keeping me from shorting the market.
I was really hoping for indicators to start cycling again, but looks like the melt up is gonna continue. Crazy stuff, none of the indicators are working right now.
AAPL - LIVE BLASTOFF!!! We were prepared for this move!!We were preparing for this move all day in my livestream and were back and forth shaking out sellers at this very strong level.
I ended the livestream earlier but thought I'd catch the move live for all the members who were with us waiting for the take off to happen. Here it is! Hope for those who were in my last stream got to enjoy some nice profits from this move!!
Happy Trading :)
$AAPL Ready for Bottom Fishing?NASDAQ:AAPL I like how this is setting up. It looks like it has held the $180 “area” for a month now. It has had some good rallies from that area. I am looking for it to break above that steep blue downtrend line. It has captured the 5 DMA (white) and looks like it could take the 10 EMA too. All TBD.
My plan is to go long on a break of the downtrend line with a stop just below that day’s low. If the market is going to move higher $APPL needs to participate, IMO. Of course, we must wait and see.
The chart I am using is LevelUp available here on TV. Checking it out, I think you will like it as well as I do.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$APPL is at crossroadsI think NASDAQ:AAPL missed the AI PR train, even if APPL has been developing something with Siri, it is late to the game and the market is not rewarding Apple for a delayed product launch. Perhaps this can be remedied and APPL is probably attempting to do this by cancelling its EV plans earlier this month. Market is saying this is not enough and wants to see Apple walking the talk. I don't think Tim Apple is the right CEO for this new world of Apple, and may soon be replaced with a visionary. I think the hiring of John Ive in replacement for Tim Apple could put APPL in a path towards the $300s, as long as AAPL board does not get this, Tim Apple could bring down apple into the 60s by 2027 or so. So far, our strategy of buying short term puts at 175 to hedge the long calls helped a bit but now we're flat. I may exit the position of AAPL to rethink a bit of what is this story all about.
AAPL - Bearish IdeaThe battle of the bulls and bears :)
The magnificent 7 has been holding and pushing the market higher, but how much longer can they hold? I believe with earnings coming out, we will see apple going for a run down to the 180 target 1, and my main personal target 165.
#options
APPL Short71% back test w/l ratio on this one that's now flagged twice. Seems to be strong support around the $179.50 range so r/r here is slightly skewed in an unfavorable 2/1 with the usual stop at the 200dma, moving it to the 55dma can give us something closer to a 1/1.
AAPLlooking for a possible bounce near jan 2023 avwap. 61.8% retracement of this downtrend could fetch 188
AAPL - Exactly like we prepared for weeks ago, Look out!I did an analysis video 2 weeks ago (video linked below) explaining why price was going to continue to come down and build liquidity before proving sell-side tapering and then activating a strong buying algorithm to start moving up.
That level I identified was $174-175. Today I'm updating you with a new more tapered algorithm that could be in the cards today if we find support there. Look for a potential wick/reach to orange however if we close above and hold this more tapered white/orange algo, it is an extremely bullish sign and we will look for buying continuation yellow or blue to then activate.
Happy Trading :)
