AAPL Long H4Buy @ 225.68
S/L @ 196.13
T/P1 @ 255.30
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action Trading based on Break out of Key Level.
AAPL trade ideas
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Comprehensive Market Analysis and StrategyGreetings traders and investors! Denis Mikheev here with an in-depth analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL) using advanced tools from TheWaved™. Buckle up as we dive into the technical, fundamental, and price action analysis to forecast price movements and provide actionable trading strategies.
Current Market Overview
Apple’s current price stands at $235.43, approximately 9.48% below its absolute high of $260.10 reached on December 26, 2024. Despite this pullback, the stock shows strong resilience, supported by robust fundamentals and technical setups.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support Zones:
$228.75
$224.05
$217.13
Resistance Zones:
$237.05
$242.41
$244.67
Key Levels for Monitoring:
Powerful Resistance at $258.55
Critical Support at $217.55
Technical Indicators Analysis
Moving Averages (1-hour interval):
MA50: $238.39
MA100: $241.09
MA200: $247.59
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
1-hour RSI: 49.41 (neutral zone)
Daily RSI: 34.6 (oversold zone suggests potential reversal)
Volume Indicators:
MFI60 (Money Flow Index): 49.28 (neutral, no divergence noted).
Key Patterns and Historical Analysis
From recent pattern sequences:
January 13, 2025: Increased Sell Volumes with a 6.84% movement, indicating short-term bearish pressure.
January 10, 2025: Multiple “Sell Volumes Take Over” patterns with mixed buy and sell signals.
January 8, 2025: VSA Buy Pattern Extra suggests a medium-term bullish rebound pending confirmation.
These patterns align with a potential range-bound movement in the near term before a decisive breakout.
Price Action Analysis
Apple’s price action over the past week has formed a consolidative structure near key support levels. Observations include:
Lower highs and consistent testing of the $228.75 support.
A potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the 1-hour chart, with a neckline at $237.05.
Price tightly correlates with the 50-day MA, suggesting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Fundamental Insights
Apple’s upcoming quarterly results are projected to beat consensus estimates, driven by robust iPhone and service segment sales. Furthermore, macroeconomic conditions, such as softening interest rate hikes, could favor tech stocks in the medium term.
Trading Strategy
Short-Term Strategy:
Entry: Buy near $228.75 support level.
Stop Loss: $224.05 to minimize downside risk.
Targets:
$237.05
$242.41
Confirmation: Look for RSI divergence or a bullish engulfing candle.
Medium-Term Strategy:
Monitor breakout above $237.05 for long positions.
Resistance to Watch: $244.67 and $250.34.
Use trailing stops to secure profits.
Long-Term Strategy:
Accumulate near $217.13 if tested, considering its historical significance as a strong support level.
Target: $258.55 with a 6-12 month horizon.
Risk Management
Employ disciplined risk management:
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Maintain a minimum of 1:2.
Position Sizing: Limit exposure to 2% of your trading capital per trade.
Stop-Loss Placement: Use dynamic stop-loss levels based on ATR (Average True Range).
Market Outlook
1. Short-Term: Expect consolidation between $228.75 and $237.05, with potential for a breakout.
2. Medium-Term: A bullish continuation is likely if $242.41 resistance is cleared.
3. Long-Term: A test of the $258.55 resistance is probable, contingent on broader market sentiment.
Concept of Rays
Explanation of the "Rays from the Beginning of Movement" Concept
Core Idea
My proprietary analysis method is based on using rays constructed on Fibonacci mathematical and geometric principles. These rays create a system of dynamic levels that help predict precise asset movements and identify key zones where price interactions occur. Price interaction with these rays signals probable scenarios: either a reversal or a continuation of movement, but only after interaction and the appearance of dynamic factors and patterns.
Why Predicting Specific Levels is Not Possible
Financial markets are nonlinear systems, where price movement is determined by numerous variables, including market volumes, liquidity, macroeconomic factors, and participant psychology. Instead of attempting to predict specific levels, I propose analyzing probabilities of price reaction at pre-calculated key zones. Price interaction with rays provides additional insights into the direction and strength of movement.
How Rays Work
Fibonacci Rays: Each ray corresponds to a specific angle of inclination, which is mathematically significant and correlates with natural proportions and the start of movement.
Primary Advantage: Rays are constructed from the beginning of a movement pattern, rather than traditional extremum points commonly used in classical technical analysis. This allows for the rapid and accurate accounting of new trend or corrective movement phases.
Adaptability: When a new pattern emerges, rays are automatically adjusted to show the potential movement range. Price may exit this range and enter another, interacting similarly with a different ray.
Rays are Ascending and Descending: They define the boundary of the movement channel.
How to Use Rays
Historical Analysis: On historical charts, observe how price interacted with rays. This helps evaluate how often levels defined by rays led to significant movement changes.
Real-Time Monitoring: By observing current price behavior relative to rays, you can highlight key points where scenarios such as reversal or continuation are likely.
Confirmation Tool: Rays do not replace other analysis methods but enhance them, adding a structured perspective on market behavior.
Conclusion
Apple remains a solid investment with clear technical setups and a favorable long-term outlook. Utilizing TheWaved™ tools, we’ve pinpointed actionable strategies to navigate its price movements effectively. Remember to follow your trading plan and adapt to market conditions.
For any queries or further clarifications, feel free to reach out via direct messages. All our professional-grade indicators are accessible via the link in our profile. Let’s trade smarter, not harder!
Stay disciplined and trade safely,
Denis Mikheev
TheWaved™
APPLE BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅APPLE was trading along
The rising support line but
Now we are seeing a bearish
Breakout so we are bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further
Bearish move down
SHORT🔥
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
AAPL: Bearish Momentum and Short-term Risk🔥 LucanInvstor's Strategy:
🩸 Short: Below $233.06, targeting $220.63 and $210. The MACD is negative, and the price remains below both the 9-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling a continued downtrend.
🩸 Long: Above $247.37, targeting $250 and $260. A breakout above resistance could lead to a reversal of the bearish trend, but the current trend remains bearish.
🔥 LucanInvstor's Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $247.37 — A key resistance level; breaking above this could signal a shift towards a bullish trend.
🩸 Support: $233.06 — A critical support level; a breakdown below this could lead to further declines.
Apple continues to face bearish pressure, with negative momentum indicated by MACD and the price below key EMAs. A breakdown below support could lead to a further pullback, while a breakout above resistance may offer a chance for a trend reversal.
👑 "Clear action is needed in volatile times to secure your position."
Is Apple Stock Really Worth Investing in January 2025?Strong weekly demand level took control. Expecting a decent reaction.
As we enter 2025, the financial landscape is buzzing with excitement and uncertainty. Investors are searching for promising opportunities, and one name that consistently tops the charts is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Love it or hate it, this tech giant has become synonymous with innovation and growth—drawing both seasoned investors and newcomers alike to its stock like moths to a flame.
Bearish View APPLApple closed today below the medium term support further solidifying my bearish argument for big tech stocks. Stock is officially in a downtrend.
Bottom fish AAPL daily hammer candleBottom fish AAPL daily hammer candle following last daily candle mini volume spike
No bullish divergence spotted so might fakeout or playout, either way it's a well-timed bottom fish with minimal loss.
Apple (AAPL) Stock Price Drops Below $240Apple (AAPL) Stock Price Drops Below $240
The last time Apple (AAPL) stock traded below the $240 mark was in late November last year.
Bearish sentiment is being driven by negative news surrounding the company:
→ CNBC reports analysts' views that the excessively thin design of the new iPhone SE 4 models will complicate sales in China. The analysts also note a decline in the appeal of the Apple Intelligence feature.
→ Investment firm Moffett Nathanson downgraded Apple’s stock rating from "Neutral" to "Sell" and lowered its target price for AAPL from $202 to $188. According to analysts, the 30% growth in Apple stock for 2024 is largely unjustified.
→ Criticism from Mark Zuckerberg, who believes that Apple has not invented anything groundbreaking for a long time.
As we mentioned on 27 December, Apple’s stock appeared overbought and vulnerable to a correction.
Technical analysis of the AAPL chart today shows that the price has dropped to:
→ The median of the current channel (marked in blue);
→ The $235 level, which previously acted as resistance.
Therefore, it is plausible that in the short term, this block formed by these two lines may provide support to the falling price. This hypothesis is supported by the long lower wick on Friday’s candle, indicating increased buyer activity.
According to TipRanks:
→ Analysts' 12-month price target for AAPL stock averages $244.77;
→ Of 29 analysts surveyed, 19 recommend buying AAPL stock, while 3 recommend selling.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
AAPL Technical Analysis and GEX Options AnalysisDirectional Bias
AAPL is currently recovering from a recent low of $233, attempting to break above critical resistance at $240. The price action is consolidating, suggesting the possibility of a breakout or continuation of the downtrend.
* Bullish Scenario: If AAPL breaks above $240 with strong volume, it may target the $247–$250 zone. This move could align with a broader market rally or improved sentiment.
* Bearish Scenario: Failure to break above $240 could lead to further downside, with $233 acting as immediate support. A break below this level may drive the price toward $220.
Key Levels to Watch
* Support:
* $233: Immediate and strong support.
* $220: Major support zone if $233 is broken.
* Resistance:
* $240: Key resistance. A breakout above this level may signal bullish momentum.
* $247–$250: Critical resistance zone, aligned with the Gamma Wall and historical price levels.
GEX (Gamma Exposure) Options Analysis
* Key Insights:
* $240: High PUT wall resistance; crossing this level could lead to a bullish shift.
* $247–$250: Positive Gamma exposure indicates a price magnet if bullish momentum builds.
* $233: Moderate PUT support; breaking below could lead to bearish acceleration.
* Options Bias: AAPL’s current setup shows bearish tendencies, but breaking $240 could trigger a gamma-induced rally.
Thoughts on Market Direction
The market direction will largely depend on whether AAPL can sustain momentum above $240. Volume and MACD are showing early signs of a potential bullish divergence, but confirmation is necessary. Keep a close eye on pre-market developments.
Actionable Steps
1. For Bulls:
* Entry: Above $240 (confirmed breakout).
* Target: $247–$250.
* Stop-Loss: Below $233.
2. For Bears:
* Entry: Rejection near $240 or a break below $233.
* Target: $220.
* Stop-Loss: Above $240.
Pre-Market Reminder
Please review this analysis during the pre-market session, as gaps up or down can significantly alter the trading plan. Adjust your strategy as needed.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before trading.
APPLE Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on APPLE and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 236.93 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 244.38
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
APPLE Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 011125Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 233/61.80%
Chart time frame : B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
AAPL/USD: Potential Bullish Opportunity!AAPL/USD: Potential Bullish Opportunity! 📈
Here’s what I’m seeing:
Buyer/Seller Activity: Buyers seem to be gaining the upper hand.
Blue Box: A promising correction zone where I believe the dip may end.
My approach:
I’ll monitor the lower time frames (1H) for market structure breaks bullish for confirmation, bearish as a caution signal.
Keep your eyes peeled for action in this zone. Boost, comment, and follow for sharper insights! 🚀
Let me tell you, this is something special. These insights, these setups—they’re not just good; they’re game-changers. I've spent years refining my approach, and the results speak for themselves. People are always asking, "How do you spot these opportunities?" It’s simple: experience, clarity, and a focus on high-probability moves.
Want to know how I use heatmaps, cumulative volume delta, and volume footprint techniques to find demand zones with precision? I’m happy to share—just send me a message. No cost, no catch. I believe in helping people make smarter decisions.
Here are some of my recent analyses. Each one highlights key opportunities:
🌐 CryptoMarkets TOTAL2: Support Zone
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🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry
🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move
🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month
💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace
🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge
📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone
🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential
🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade
🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones
🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum
🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs
🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity
🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked
🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer
🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan
⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One
💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas
🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence
🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results
🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB
📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction
🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction
📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely
This list? It’s just a small piece of what I’ve been working on. There’s so much more. Go check my profile, see the results for yourself. My goal is simple: provide value and help you win. If you’ve got questions, I’ve got answers. Let’s get to work!
APPLE: Long Signal Explained
APPLE
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy APPLE
Entry - 236.93
Stop - 231.88
Take - 248.10
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Apple going to go higher!!One of the better setups I've come across. Daily wick off of the major demand zone and major fib level. I'm thinking she is going to fly in the next few weeks.
Apple at a Key Support on the Daily Chart: Is It Time to Buy?Apple Inc. (AAPL) has been in a clear uptrend since the start of the year, buoyed by a well-defined ascending trendline. The stock recently reached an all-time high near $260.00 but has since corrected to a key support level around $240.00. This support level is further validated by the 50% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential area of interest for buyers.
Buy Scenario
The current price level of $240.00 represents a significant confluence of support, combining the ascending trendline, the 50% Fibonacci zone, and a horizontal support level. If the price exhibits signs of reversal in this area, such as the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., a hammer or engulfing pattern), it could present an attractive entry point for buyers.
Main Target: An upward movement could aim for resistance at $260.00, offering substantial upside potential of approximately 6%.
Possible Stop Loss: A stop loss could be placed just below the support level at $235.00 (about 3.6% from the entry), serving as protection against false breakouts or a continued decline.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Conversely, if the price breaks below the $240.00 support and the ascending trendline, we may see a more significant reversal. In this situation, the stock could target lower levels, with the next support located at $222.00, which aligns with a previous low.
In Summary:
The price action around the current support level will be pivotal in determining AAPL's next move. Investors should closely monitor candlestick patterns and volume in this support region to make informed decisions between potential buy or sell scenarios. Additionally, staying updated on relevant news, such as quarterly earnings reports or macroeconomic developments, will be crucial for assessing market influence.
Disclaimer:
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested.
Timing is Everything: When to Invest in the Stock MarketWhen to Invest and When to Hold Back: A Comprehensive Guide to Market Timing
Determining the right time to invest in the stock market can be challenging. Should one enter when prices are low or during market upswings? While there's no foolproof way to ensure investment success, grasping market dynamics and trends can provide a significant advantage.
To navigate stock market investments effectively, it's essential to understand its structure and functioning. By examining prevailing trends and identifying potential opportunities, you can make well-informed decisions that may improve your financial outcomes. This article covers the fundamentals of stock trading and highlights the critical factors that contribute to successful investing in the stock market.
While perfect market timing is nearly unattainable, recognizing critical indicators and trends can enhance your investment strategy and facilitate wealth accumulation over the long term.
Understanding the Stock Market
The stock market serves as a global platform where investors and traders exchange shares of publicly traded companies. It reflects overall economic health, corporate performance, and geopolitical developments. Beyond being an economic gauge, the stock market is a powerful mechanism for wealth creation over time.
Differentiating between stock trading and investing is pivotal. Stock trading typically involves buying and selling shares frequently to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. In contrast, share market investing emphasizes a long-term strategy, focusing on holding stocks to achieve steady growth.
Historically, investing in the stock market has proven beneficial, often generating higher returns compared to other investment vehicles like bonds or savings accounts. With effective compounding and diversification, stock investments can play a crucial role in realizing financial objectives. Regardless of your experience level, understanding the stock market's fundamentals is a vital first step.
The Importance of Timing in Stock Market Investing
Timing is essential in stock market investing, as it involves identifying optimal moments to buy or sell. While accurately predicting the perfect timing is unrealistic, a solid understanding of market conditions can help prevent common mistakes and inform better investment decisions.
One common pitfall is the attempt to time the market too precisely, which can be detrimental. Emotional decisions, such as panic selling during downturns or succumbing to greed during a market rally, can lead to missed opportunities and financial losses. Investors driven by fear or greed rather than rational analysis may find themselves in unfavorable positions.
Strategic timing, however, remains valuable. By observing overarching trends and economic signals, you can make more informed decisions. For instance, bear markets—characterized by declining prices—can provide opportunities to acquire quality stocks at lower prices. Historically, investments made during downturns often yield significant returns when the market rebounds.
For example, those who invested in early 2009 after the 2008 financial crisis experienced substantial growth over the subsequent decade. Similarly, investors recognizing the potential of tech giants like Amazon and Apple during the late 1990s saw considerable rewards.
Weekly chart Amazon From 2008 - 2025
Weekly chart Apple Inc. From 2008 - 2025
Ultimately, while timing is important, it is crucial to prioritize long-term growth over short-term speculation. Staying informed, disciplined, and basing decisions on comprehensive analysis rather than fleeting market sentiment will yield more favorable outcomes.
Read Also:
Key Factors Influencing Investment Timing
Investing wisely in the stock market necessitates an awareness of various factors that can influence market behavior. These elements serve as indicators, guiding investors on when to enter or exit the market for maximum gains.
Market cycles are among the most significant influences on stock trading. Bull markets, defined by rising prices and optimism, create favorable conditions for investment. Conversely, bear markets, marked by declining prices and caution, can present value-driven investors with attractive opportunities.
Economic indicators are also fundamental in shaping investment choices. Metrics such as GDP growth, interest rates, and inflation levels yield insights into the overall economic landscape. For instance, low interest rates generally stimulate market activity, while high inflation may erode investor confidence.
Read Also
Corporate earnings reports are critical as well, revealing a company’s financial health, which directly affects its stock price. Positive surprises in earnings can drive share prices up, whereas disappointing results often lead to declines.
Geopolitical events and global occurrences play a substantial role in market conditions too. Events like elections, conflicts, and even pandemics can introduce significant volatility. For instance, uncertainty surrounding elections can create market hesitance, while global crises might result in both risks and fresh investment prospects.
Key Indicators for Stock Market Investment
Identifying key indicators is essential for uncovering promising investment opportunities. These tools and metrics can enhance clarity amid market noise, enabling informed decisions.
Valuation metrics such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio are widely utilized indicators. A low P/E ratio may indicate that a stock is undervalued, while a high P/E might suggest overvaluation.
Dividend yield trends offer additional insight, especially for income-focused investors. A consistent or increasing dividend yield could signify a stable and profitable company, making it an attractive investment.
Market sentiment and news trends provide context that shapes stock prices. Positive news regarding a sector can lead to price increases, whereas negative sentiment may offer contrarian investors a chance to buy at a lower price.
Technical analysis tools are beneficial for traders seeking short-term opportunities. Indicators like moving averages and support and resistance levels can assist in identifying potential entry and exit points.
Long-Term Investing vs. Short-Term Trading
Choosing between long-term investing and short-term trading is a critical decision shaped by your financial goals and risk appetite.
Long-term investing involves holding stocks for extended periods, capitalizing on compound growth and riding out market volatility. The simplicity of this approach minimizes the need to time the market precisely; instead, consistent contributions and patience can yield substantial rewards.
Conversely, short-term trading involves capitalizing on swift market movements, often within days or hours. While this can enable rapid profits, it necessitates rigorous analysis, discipline, and swift reactions to market changes.
Each strategy has its advantages and disadvantages. Long-term investing fosters stability and aligns with broader wealth-building objectives, while short-term trading may be thrilling and potentially lucrative, albeit with increased risks. Understanding your financial aspirations will guide you in selecting the approach that aligns best with your needs.
Read Also
Avoiding Common Mistakes When Timing the Stock Market
Investors can fall victim to several traps when attempting to time the stock market, leading to costly missteps. Steering clear of these mistakes is vital for successful stock market investing.
A prevalent error is chasing trends and following the crowd. Many investors succumb to the excitement of soaring stock prices, purchasing at inflated values, only to face losses when the bubble bursts. Instead of following the herd, focus on research and a solid strategy.
Allowing emotions to dictate responses to market fluctuations is another common pitfall. Fear during downturns can trigger panic selling, while greed during bull markets can result in excessive risk exposure. A disciplined approach is crucial for navigating market volatility successfully.
Lastly, neglecting diversification can expose your portfolio to unnecessary risk. Concentrating too much on a specific sector or asset type increases vulnerability to market shifts. A well-diversified portfolio reduces risk and enhances the potential for steady returns.
Read Also:
Crafting a Strategic Approach to Stock Market Investments
Developing a strategic investment approach in the stock market involves aligning your choices with your financial objectives and risk tolerance. Recognizing your goals and comfort with risk will guide your decision-making process.
Diversifying your investments across asset classes such as stocks, bonds, and ETFs is key for creating a balanced portfolio. Including a mix of well-established stocks and growth opportunities allows for both safety and potential returns.
Modern investment tools can further refine your strategy. Robo-advisors offer personalized, automated portfolio management, while stock screeners help identify opportunities by filtering stocks based on various criteria. Technical analysis platforms can also provide insights into market trends and assist in timing your trades.
Ultimately, having a well-considered plan is more beneficial than trying to predict every market movement. Commit to your strategy, regularly review it, and adjust it as your financial situation evolves.
When to Hold Off on Investing
While the stock market offers numerous opportunities, certain conditions may warrant caution. Timing may not dictate everything, but some scenarios are best approached with restraint.
Investing during periods of extreme market volatility or panic selling is often unwise. Markets influenced by fear rather than fundamentals tend to be more unpredictable. Instead, consider waiting for calmer market conditions or look for long-term opportunities based on solid research.
Personal financial instability also signals a need for caution. Investing should be done with disposable income, not funds earmarked for necessary expenses or emergencies. Without an emergency fund, you risk having to sell investments prematurely, often at a loss.
Over-leveraging represents a significant risk, particularly during uncertain economic climates. While borrowing money to invest can amplify gains, it equally amplifies losses. Ensure any investments are manageable within your financial means.
By understanding when to invest and when to hold back, you can navigate the stock market more effectively and work toward achieving your financial goals.
✅ Please share your thoughts about this educational post in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate! Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution
$AAPL update!!WOW that parallel channel / -.618 confluence was money (SEE LAST POST).
I wanted to close that post and move in closer.
UPDATE ZOOMED IN
That could have been the top but prolly sends higher til NVDA 1.414
NVDA 1.414 STRATEGY NEXT POST
Apple Inc. (AAPL): Testing Key Levels Amidst Pullback🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $246.43, targeting $250 and $254. Strong volume is required for bullish confirmation.
🩸 Short: Below $242.00, aiming for $236 and $230. Weakening MACD indicates bearish pressure may persist.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $246.43. Breaking above this level may restore upward momentum.
🩸 Support: $242.00. Losing this level could lead to a retest of lower levels.
Apple is navigating a pullback after recent gains, with traders closely monitoring the key levels. MACD shows declining momentum, signaling caution for bulls.
👑 "In the art of trading, precision is the key to mastery." — LucanInvestor
Strategy testing: is it enough? Hey everyone,
I wanted to touch on a topic that I don’t think is discussed nearly enough here, and that topic is backtesting. How reliable is it really?
Most people would assume that backtest results are solid. You get a backtest with a 74% success rate, and you think you've won the lottery! However, there are some grey areas when it comes to backtesting. In fact, backtesting should only be the first step in multiple phases one should go through to ensure a strategy is indeed profitable.
First, let’s dispel some myths about accuracy vs. profitability.
High accuracy = high profitability?
This is false. A high accuracy does not always mean profitability. The considerations that must go into this fact are:
- At what point are you taking profits?
If a buy signal occurs and you take profits at about 0.50 cents from the buy signal, then this is not a feasible strategy or one with a great risk-reward (R:R) ratio.
- How long are you holding?
If the strategy has high accuracy but requires you to hold for 2 to 3 years before seeing profits, then this defeats the purpose of most trading strategies, as this is simply an investment strategy, which, in itself, is a solid approach.
These are two common issues I see in strategies that lead to misleading “accuracy” results.
Low accuracy = not profitable.
This is false. Low accuracy strategies tend to be the best strategies because the focus of these strategies is usually on holding for major targets, with strict stop-loss parameters. You will be profitable infrequently, but when you win, you will win big.
A real-life example of this would be Michael Burry’s successful short. While his successful short became the story of books and movies, his multiple failed attempts at making major shorts before and after this trade have been overshadowed by his success in the 2008 bubble short. Thus, Michael Burry has a low accuracy but a high profitability factor.
How can we better decide on successful strategies?
This is the question that any day or swing trader should be asking: How do we validate the efficacy or efficiency of our strategy? This is where things get somewhat complicated. The emphasis I see in the trading community is on just general accuracy and profit factor. I also see some discussions on Sharpe ratios. I think it’s important to understand these concepts before we continue.
Accuracy: Accuracy is simply the number of successful trades over the total number of trades, multiplied by 100. So, 49 successful trades out of 50 total trades would equal an accuracy of 98%.
Profit factor: Profit factor is the total gross profits divided by the total gross losses over the course of the strategy testing period. For example, if over the last 4 weeks, you made $800 and lost $250, your profit factor would be 800/250 = 3.2.
Sharpe Ratio: Sharpe ratios are slightly more complex. This ratio attempts to evaluate the risk-adjusted return of an investment/portfolio or trading strategy. It works by taking the average return of the strategy/portfolio or investment and subtracting the risk-free rate. The risk-free rate can be something like government bills or a simple high-interest savings rate. Then, you take the remaining value and divide it by the standard deviation of the investment/portfolio or strategy profits.
For example, let’s say your strategy generally yields 10%. The risk-free rate of a high-interest savings account is 2%. The standard deviation of your profit strategy is around 15% (this would be calculated by taking all of your returns from your strategy, both positive and negative, and calculating the standard deviation). In this case, the Sharpe ratio would equal 0.53. An excellent Sharpe ratio is >2. A Sharpe ratio <2 but >1 is considered good. The average Sharpe ratio for most returns is <1 and is more realistic.
TradingView’s strategy tester actually provides you with a calculation of the Sharpe ratio. Simply apply a strategy to your chart and head over to the “performance summary” tab:
In general, you should treat any Sharpe ratio >1 with extreme skepticism.
So, are these approaches enough to determine how successful a strategy will be?
No, absolutely not. Even with a good Sharpe ratio, an okay accuracy, and a high profit factor, you cannot be guaranteed that the strategy will be successful.
Why not?
This is a complex question, and I think it’s best answered from a biostatistics approach (mostly because this is my field, haha).
In biostatistics and epidemiology, we have something that can be closely linked to stocks. It's called a “web of causation.” What this means is there are numerous factors that influence a person’s health, and it is very challenging to control and account for all these factors.
Take a make-believe person, Mrs. Jones and her family. At first glance, Mrs. Jones and her family may appear well-dressed, affluent, well-groomed, and healthy. Now, let’s say we want to trade based on Mrs. and Mr. Jones’ likelihood of living to 80 years old (we are playing the insurance actuary’s job now, haha). The only information we have on this family is that they appear affluent, show no signs of illness, and they are pleasant people.
Believe it or not, this is about all the information we have at a single point in time on a stock. That’s all we can really know at the time of trade execution. We can speculate further, but we can’t really know all of the impacting factors on the stock.
Now, let’s say we buy calls on the Jones family living to 80 based on what we observe. Now, 12 years have passed, and Mr. Jones ends up ill and in the hospital. Two months later, he sadly passes away. Then, 1.5 years after that, Mrs. Jones sadly passes away from cancer.
Your position is now worthless.
What happened?
We ignored and were not able to view the full picture. The Jones family had a lower socioeconomic status. Mr. Jones liked to drink over 4 alcoholic drinks per day. They lived in an older home that did not have sufficient insulation and protection from the elements. They also lived beneath a power grid distribution zone and right next to a high EMF emitting cellphone tower that was constructed right after the family moved in 11 years ago. Mrs. Jones’ family had all died 2 years ago, before the age of 68 from cancer, and Mr. Jones’ family had a history of health issues and alcoholism.
We can visualize a web of causation through this image:
Some of these things we could have found out, namely the socioeconomic status and Mr. Jones’ history of alcoholism. However, most of these things did not appear until midway through our bet. For example, at the time, we did not know that they would build a high EMF emitting tower right next to their house, and Mrs. Jones’ family did not die until 8 years into our position.
So how could we have known?
The truth is, we couldn’t have. It’s impossible! We could have done better due diligence by obtaining the current and most recent family history and socioeconomic situation. We could have obtained information on the location and house the family was living in. But most of these things happened along the way, and it would have been impossible to foresee them.
This is the reality of stock trading. The issue with stocks is that it is impossible to know what the future holds for a company or the economy. The stock market has a multifaceted web of causations, such as the current economic status of a country, global affairs, war, presidency, a company’s overall financial stability, unexpected lawsuits, unexpected losses, bankruptcies, interest rates, and other economic disasters.
Here’s what a web of causation could look like for the stock market:
So, what can we do?
Here are some tips for ensuring that we capture the most accurate picture we can of a strategy. We’ll start with some easy, quick-to-implement approaches and then go into some more advanced, higher-level approaches.
Easier approaches:
- Ensure you utilize a larger lookback period. TradingView has the ability to do what is called “deep backtesting.” This allows you to backtest a strategy from many weeks, months, and years in the past. Make use of this function! One of the biggest issues with strategy backtesting is focusing on a limited lookback period. This introduces bias and omits a vast amount of data.
- Analyze the statistics presented in TradingView’s backtester performance summary. Be very skeptical of Sharpe ratios >= 1.2 and profit factors >= 1.5. Make sure you look at the entries and exits of the strategy, and the average trade length and profit:
- Warning signs to look for are an abnormally long period of time in a trade (be sure it’s proportionate to the timeframe you are on—for example, 150 bars on the daily is almost a year!) and frequent trades with marginal profits.
Advanced Approaches:
Most quantitative traders and financial institutions apply something called forward testing. Forward testing includes a number of statistical tests that can determine whether the results of the backtest are statistically significant. For example, applying a simple Chi-Square test can determine whether there is a statistically significant difference between the number of winning trades and losing trades. A t-test can be applied to a bond/fixed interest rate account performance and your strategy to compare whether there is a statistically significant difference between the profits yielded by your strategy vs. a safe investment or high-interest savings position.
These can be accomplished in Python, R, Excel, or even Pine Script (using my SPTS library, which gives you the ability to calculate a paired and one-tailed t-test right within Pine Script). The details on how to do this are higher level and beyond the scope of this article, but I will continue the series on backtesting/forward testing into the future with some examples of how one can forward test within Pine Script and Excel.
Another method is by omitting future data points, testing the strategy's success over a specified period, and then executing it on the future points to see if the results compare. If you notice a marked difference between the previous period and the forward period, this should signal alarm bells. For example:
The above chart shows the difference that can happen due to changing sentiments and economic circumstances, and that a strategy can be inconsistent and contingent on external factors beyond our knowledge or control.
Conclusion
And that’s it! This will mark my first educational article of 2025! Hopefully, you learned something and take this to apply to your trading. Be careful, and as always, safe trades, everyone!
Apple ,,, watching As seen in the chart, Apple has been in a corrective wave. In my perspective, the correction should be completed within the green zone. For now, following the break of the descending trend line and surpassing the $247 level, it could present a good buying opportunity. If this occurs, below the green area could be a suitable place to set up a stop loss. Potential targets could be $260 and $300.
Good luck.
Apple Inc. (AAPL): Testing the Waters Amid Pullbacks🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $247.33, targeting $255 and $260. Recovery requires strong buying volume.
🩸 Short: Below $242.05, targeting $235 and $230. Further weakness could unfold under selling pressure.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $247.33. Breaking this level could reestablish bullish sentiment.
🩸 Support: $242.05. A breach here risks extending the downtrend.
Apple faces a decisive moment with its MACD declining into negative territory. Volume will play a critical role in determining the next move.
👑 "The strongest build their futures in moments of challenge." — LucanInvestor
Apple May Be OversoldApple surged to a new record high around Christmas, and traders may see an opportunity in its latest pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the weekly low from December 9 at $241.75. The iPhone maker came within $0.07 of that price last Thursday before bouncing. Is support in place above the peaks last July and October?
Next, that level was near a 50 percent retracement of the rally that began in early November. Holding that spot may confirm AAPL’s direction is bullish.
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
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