AAPLB trade ideas
Why this strategy works so well (Ticker Pulse Meter + Fear EKG) Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Consult a professional before investing real money. I strongly encourage paper trading to test any strategy.
The Ticker Pulse + Fear EKG Strategy is a long-term, dip-buying investment approach that balances market momentum with emotional sentiment. It integrates two key components:
Ticker Pulse: Tracks momentum using dual-range metrics to pinpoint precise entry and exit points.
Fear EKG: Identifies spikes in market fear to highlight potential reversal opportunities.
Optimized for the daily timeframe, this strategy also performs well on weekly or monthly charts, making it ideal for dollar-cost averaging or trend-following with confidence. Visual cues—such as green and orange dots, heatmap backgrounds, and SMA/Bollinger Bands—provide clear signals and context. The strategy’s default settings are user-friendly, requiring minimal adjustments.
Green dots indicate high-confidence entry signals and do not repaint.
Orange dots (Fear EKG entries), paired with a red “fear” heatmap background, signal opportunities to accumulate shares during peak fear and market sell-offs.
Now on the the educational part that is most fascinating.
Load XLK on your chart and add a secondary line by plotting the following on a secondary axis:
INDEX:SKFI + INDEX:SKTH / 2
Now, you should see something like this:
Focus on the INDEX:SKFI + INDEX:SKTH / 2 line, noting its dips and spikes. Compare these movements to XLK’s price action and the corresponding dot signals:
Green and Orange Dots: Opportunities to scale into long positions.
Red Dots: Opportunities to start scaling out of positions.
This concept applies not only to XLK but also to major stocks within a sector, such as AAPL, a significant component of XLK. Chart AAPL against INDEX:SKFI + INDEX:SKTH / 2 to observe how stock and sector indices influence each other.
Now, you should see something like this:
Long-Term Investing Considerations
By default, the strategy suggests exiting 50% of open positions at each red dot. However, as long-term investors, there’s no need to follow this rule strictly. Instead, consider holding positions until they are profitable, especially when dollar-cost averaging for future retirement.
In prolonged bear markets, such as 2022, stocks like META experienced significant declines. Selling 50% of positions on early red dots may have locked in losses. For disciplined long-term investors, holding all open positions through market recoveries can lead to profitable outcomes.
The Importance of Context
Successful trading hinges on context. For example, using a long-term Linear Regression Channel (LRC) and buying green or orange dots below the channel’s point-of-control (red line) significantly improves the likelihood of success. Compare this to buying dots above the point-of-control, where outcomes are less favorable.
Why This Strategy Works
The Ticker Pulse + Fear EKG Strategy excels at identifying market dips and tops by combining momentum and sentiment analysis. I hope this explanation clarifies its value and empowers you to explore its potential through paper trading.
Anyway, I thought I would make a post to help explain why the strategy is so good at identifying the dips and the tops. Hope you found this write up as educational.
The strategy:
The Companion Indicator:
Daily Price Action: Apple APPL Thursday 4/17/2025In this video, we will be looking into the potential price action of AAPL.
Dollar-Yen Compression Coil: A Breakout is Brewing🧠 Why This Matters Right Now
USD/JPY has been tightly range-bound for the past 7 sessions, hugging the underside of 154.50, a historically significant resistance level. With U.S. inflation coming in hotter than expected and the Bank of Japan stepping back from policy tightening, this tug-of-war has compressed price action into a tight coil. A volatility eruption is right around the corner.
🔍 Breakdown of the Strategy
This is a volatility compression breakout setup based on the logic that low volatility precedes expansion. The ingredients:
Bollinger Bands (20, 2) for detecting squeeze zones
ADX (14) under 15 to confirm low trend strength
Price range compressing within 0.5%
Entry Logic:
📈 Long: Close above upper Bollinger Band + ADX > 20
📉 Short: Close below lower Bollinger Band + ADX > 20
Stops & Targets:
Stop Loss: Just inside the opposite Bollinger Band
Take Profit: 2× ATR(14)
🚀 Why This Works in Today’s Market
The policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan is creating a classic fundamental standoff, but the price can't stay neutral for long. Volatility is compressed to its limits. When the breakout comes, it's likely to run fast and clean in the direction of the imbalance.
🤖 Automate It with PineScriptAI
With PineScriptAI, you can instantly:
Detect when Bollinger Band width narrows
Monitor ADX thresholds
Set up conditional breakout logic with smart alerts and backtests
Create a dual-trigger script that catches either direction — no need to guess the breakout side.
⚡ From Trend to Code — Instantly
This isn’t just a chart pattern — it’s a recurring market phenomenon. With PineScriptAI, you can adapt this same logic to GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, or even gold compressions with zero manual tweaking.
🧭 Final Insight FX:USDJPY
When price coils, energy builds. Don’t just watch it break — code it, trade it, and scale it across markets with PineScriptAI.
AAPL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16AAPL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesized analysis of the AAPL data and the five model reports:
──────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI Report – Observes a slightly recovered 5‐minute bounce but a generally volatile, declining daily trend. – Notes bearish technicals (price below EMAs, RSI recovering from oversold levels but MACD still below signal) and mixed sentiment (max pain at $202.50 with heavy put volume). – Recommends a trade on the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and proximity (–2.60% from current price).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlights AAPL trading below key EMAs with persistent bearish momentum on both short and daily timeframes and a downtrend of –17% over 30 days. – Points out oversold conditions on the 5‑minute chart with continuing bearish pressure on the daily charts, alongside caution from negative news. – Chooses the $190 PUT as the best blend of risk and reward given its liquidity and technical setup.
• Gemini/Google Report – Emphasizes AAPL’s price below intraday and daily EMAs, with the short-term bounce near the lower Bollinger Band offering a minor contradiction. – Underlines strong bearish sentiment supported by high VIX and negative news, while noting resistance at the call side. – Recommends a bearish pick – the $187.50 PUT – though with a similar rationale as the others (i.e. trading just out‐of‐the‐money to capture a move).
• Llama/Meta Report – Notes bearish indicators including price under moving averages, low RSI, and MACD below the signal line. – Recognizes key support and resistance levels (supports near $194 and resistance near $197) and the opposing pressure suggested by max pain. – Ends up favoring a moderately bearish setup with the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and risk profile.
• DeepSeek Report – Reviews the technical and sentiment picture and concludes a moderately bearish position, underscored by negative news and broad put interest. – Emphasizes that a break from near-term support (around $194) could steer the price toward the $190 area. – Also recommends the $190 PUT, noting that its setup offers a reasonable risk/reward profile.
────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: – All reports agree that AAPL is trading in a bearish environment overall, with price below key moving averages and a downtrend on daily charts. – There is a common focus on the options chain, where puts at or below $190 are highly liquid and carry significant open interest. – Every model, despite minor nuances, leans toward buying a naked PUT as the trade idea for this weekly options expiry. – All analysts recommend an entry at market open.
• Disagreement: – One model (Gemini/Google) slightly deviates by suggesting a $187.50 PUT as an alternative to $190, while the majority favor the $190 strike. – The exact profit target and stop‐loss levels differ somewhat between models, but all align on the general risk controls and short-term nature due to weekly expiration.
────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED TRADE
Overall Market Direction: • Consensus is moderately bearish. Despite a brief short-term bounce noted on the intraday charts, the dominant trend and negative news sentiment favor further downside.
Recommended Trade: • Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked PUT option on AAPL • Expiration: Weekly (April 17, 2025) • Strike and Price: The $190 PUT (with an Ask around $0.83; it is about 2.60% below the current price) • Strategy Rationale: – This strike is liquid (high volume and open interest) and is supported by the bearish bias from momentum indicators and negative sentiment. – Although the premium of ~$0.83 is a bit above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 band, it is justified by the sharper risk/reward setup in this environment. • Entry Timing: At market open • Proposed Risk/Reward: – Profit Target: Approximately a 50% gain on the premium (target near $1.25) – Stop-Loss: Approximately a 50% loss on the premium (stop-loss near $0.42) • Confidence Level: 70% • Key Risks and Considerations: – A brief intraday bounce (short-term oversold recovery) could push prices above support, triggering the stop-loss. – Any unexpected news or a reversal in overall market sentiment may rapidly alter the risk profile given the short-dated expiration. – Monitor price action closely at open, as weekly options are particularly sensitive to early volatility.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "AAPL", "direction": "put", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.25, "stop_loss": 0.42, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.83, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Apple Wave Analysis – 16 April 2025
- Apple reversed from resistance level 210.00
- Likely to fall to support level 190.00
Apple earlier reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 210.00 (former support from the start of March), 20-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the impulse wave (1) from February.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous medium-term correction (2) from the start of April.
Apple can be expected to fall to the next support level 190.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 170.00.
Apple will decrease more ? I reckon Apple stock will drop to around $175, based on my gap trading analysis.
AAPL moves in steps of 20% and sometimes 30% Many stocks move in steps thats why trendlines work. But in some stock the steps are not very clear, But Apple the steps are very clear.
Here the price rejected by trendline and could be great time to short and also completes 20%
The steps are caused because stock holders expect that return before they sell off
AAPL Technical Analysis (Trading Perspective)Price Structure:
AAPL has bounced from the recent low around $168 and is now climbing within an upward price channel. Price is attempting to reclaim the psychological $200 level, now acting as short-term resistance.
Trendline Channel:
A bullish channel has formed from the April 9th reversal, and the current price is near the midline. Price is showing consolidation just below a previous resistance level at ~$200.32, which aligns with the upper gamma levels.
Key Support/Resistance Levels:
* Resistance: $200.32 → key gamma and technical resistance
* Support: $185.29 (confluence of HVL + breakout area)
* Critical Support: $168.13 → the base of recent bounce
Volume & RSI:
* RSI is trending upward but starting to curve slightly at the 60 zone, showing bullish but cautious strength.
* Volume during the bounce shows aggressive buying but has tapered off recently — signaling a possible pause or retest before continuation.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish (watch for $200 breakout confirmation)
💡 Options GEX Analysis (For Option Trading)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Levels:
* Highest Positive GEX / Gamma Wall: $200
→ A breakout above this may lead to a gamma squeeze toward $205–$220.
* Resistance Levels:
* $205 (12.8% GEX8)
* $220 (35.5% / 2nd Call Wall)
* Put Walls / Support:
* $185.29 = HVL (04/17 expiry)
* $180 and $170 have layered PUT GEX walls acting as support (–22% to –25%)
IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 73.1 (elevated — premiums are rich)
* IVx avg: 68.5
* Put/Call Skew: Puts at 33.2% dominance, indicating hedge pressure, but not panic.
* Sentiment Flags: 🟢🔴🟢 → mixed signals: volatility + hedging pressure but potential support at $185+
🔁 Trading & Option Strategy Suggestions
📊 For Stock Traders:
* Bullish Play: Watch for breakout and retest above $200 → Target $205, $220
* Bearish Play: Rejection at $200 + breakdown below $185 = possible fade toward $175–$168
* Neutral Range Play: Between $185 – $200, consider scalping intraday using EMA/VWAP confluence
🧠 For Option Traders:
* Bullish Strategy:
* Debit Call Spread: Buy 200C / Sell 210C (cheap gamma play on breakout)
* Short Put Spread (Cash-secured): Sell 185P / Buy 175P if price consolidates above 190
* Bearish Strategy:
* Put Debit Spread if price rejects $200: Buy 195P / Sell 185P
* Avoid naked calls — IV is high, and premiums are inflated
🧭 Final Thought:
AAPL is at a decision zone with significant option market activity clustered around $200. A breakout here could trigger a squeeze toward $220, but failure may bring a retest of the $185–$180 range. The GEX layout shows dealer positioning supports upward movement above $200 but is still hedged underneath. Be nimble — wait for confirmation, and don't chase unless the breakout holds.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
AAPL LTF Wave count ( 40 years!)
My long term wave count for apple completes. It has got a mind-blowing and exponential growth over the 40 years and has it come to THE end? Elliot waves can't tell really because wave analysis can always yield multiple scenarios based on waves and sub-wave counts, that's why Elliot wave is an amazing tool regardless you agree or not.
I always prefer not use log chart when wave counting because it will distort the trend line which is important for wave analysis.
My conclusion: APPL has either finished its long-term ascending wave or it still has two more huge waves up till a few years later.
Apple respite before sell offApple bounced straight of major support at circa $170, with the SMI now also rising we could see a few weeks of short term respite before continuing down to test the major support line again. Also notice a backtest of the rising trend at around 21%.
Long term view is still bearish, don't think we've seen the yearly bottoms yet. Will be interesting to see how this plays out especially with bonds.
AAPL - Strong Support 164NASDAQ:AAPL Strong Support at 164. If fails to hold that level, It can go down to 129.
Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025
- Apple reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00
Apple earlier reversed up from the support zone surrounding the long-term support level 170.00 (which has been reversing the price since the end of 2023) – standing very far below the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 170.00 stopped the previous weekly downward impulse wave 3 from February.
Given the strength of the support level 170.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Apple can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 180.00.
Apple's Fall: Time to Pick Some Fruit, or Let it Rot?Apple's chart looks bruised! After a big drop, it's testing a key support zone around $170. A bounce here could be a buying opportunity, especially if the MACD turns bullish. BUT, failing to hold this level could mean more pain ahead. Is Apple a bargain at these levels, or is there more downside to come?
High probability put sale on AAPL AAPL is at the 200 sma on the weekly. First time since 2018. This level, we get over $2! Close to 2%. WHAT A SPOT to own apple
AAPLAAPL price is in the correction period. If the price cannot break through the 258.56 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
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>>GooD Luck 😊
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qwe2Apple Inc. is an American multinational corporation and technology company headquartered in Cupertino, California, in Silicon Valley. It is best known for its consumer electronics, software, and services
qweApple Inc. is an American multinational corporation and technology company headquartered in Cupertino, California, in Silicon Valley. It is best known for its consumer electronics, software, and services
aapl 10 min maxObtaining 10-minute interval historical stock data for Apple Inc. (AAPL) spanning the past decade is challenging due to data availability constraints. While some providers offer intraday data, the extent of historical coverage varies. Here are some options you might consider
#AAPL forecasting
There’s no clear window into when the market will bottom—we can only anticipate based on possible scenarios.
For AAPL, $165 could act as a support level for a potential bounce. The next key support could be around $140 if that doesn't hold.
Short term support is near.So long as there is a glimmer of hope in the tariff talks, markets could find a short term support and bounce back for what I think would be short term rally only to make lower lows.
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners.
As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate.
Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured.
According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market.
Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support
Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support.
A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves.
Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone.
In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
Apple on sale who said Wall Street has no discountsOn the NASDAQ:AAPL 1W chart, the price has dropped sharply, likely due to recent trade tensions with China, but it is now approaching a key support level that previously acted as resistance and triggered a strong rebound. The Ichimoku cloud (10, 20, 40, 10) indicates a bearish trend, although there are early signs that selling pressure may be weakening. At the same time, the Trend Strength Index (20, 10) is in oversold territory, suggesting that bearish momentum could be fading. If lower timeframes begin to show signs of reversal, this may signal the beginning of a long-term recovery. A possible entry between 200 and 175 with a stop loss below 163 could offer a favorable risk to reward opportunity for long-term investors.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
