Is it Time for the Magnificent 7 Collapse?The mag 7 showed some weakness this past week for the first time in a long time. It has essentially gone straight up since April. We had the big drop on Thursday after CPI, but of course it quickly recovered on Friday. I think many are feeling optimistic after that recovery, but I'm not convinced. I've obviously been bearish for about a month now and it hasn't panned out yet, so take it with a grain of salt. Picking the top is hard, but TA can assist. And if it keeps going, money can be made on the long side.
This could be a huge ascending wedge break to the downside that sends the mag 7 back down towards the lows in May. A lot of charts are looking similar to how they looked before the sell off in April, but so far betting on continued downside has been a losing bet. It's important to wait for confirmation and avoid shorting before it is time. We can use basic trendlines and VX analysis to determine when it is time. If we see a break to the downside soon and VX comes alive, we'll know we have a sell off that has legs. It may be similar to April and only last a couple of weeks, but it could be a quick elevator down.
I'll be watching all of the mag 7 along with ES, NQ, and VX for any clues of what's to come. I think things are in a dangerous spot right now, buying up here could be a terrible mistake, but so could shorting or staying cash. We need confirmation first. If we see a strong VX with some bearish trend breaks on the mag 7, it'll be a lot safer to short. Patience pays.