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AMD Is it really as 'dead' as it looks?Advanced Micro Devices / AMD is down -45% since their March 2024 All Time High and the market appears to be quickly losing faith on the stock. However, this is not the first time we've encountered such decline on this stock as the exact same Channel Down that had a drop of -42% also took place during the previous Bull Cycle. In fact this is what we called the mid Bull Cycle accumulation Channel and as you see in both patterns, the 1week MA100 supported. On the 2017/18 case, it kickstarted a rebound to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. It is amazing to see that even the Bear Cycles that preceded those Channels (2022 and 2014/15), they declined by the same amount (-66.41%). So for now the 1week MA100 is supporting the November-December consolidation and this is the 1nd time it has since the August 5th low. Once the 1week RSI hits 38.00 again (like it did on March 26th 2018), it will be the ultimate time to buy again but being so close to it right now, you can start buying even now. Target 350.00 (little under the 1.382 Fib). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by TheCryptagon
1
AMD Consolidation for Further UpsideAMD is currently consolidating after retest of its 2 years low at $133-135 level. While the AI and semiconductor is booming after strong labor and economic data, AMD is still with within its consolidation wedge as shown in the graph. If current tech trend continues with a strong Santa Claus rally, AMD is like to trend upwards to rest its resistance at the $150 level. We'd love to see a breakout to the $150 level and a further upside to the $175-185 resistance level is likely. Downside is limited to the $133 level. Given the current price at $140 level, the play could yield at R/R around 1:5. However, the trend is still forming and a breakout is not evident. We will need to further increase in MACD and RSI to help with the breakout.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by zwu
Trading Strategy for AMD and QCOM1. Fibonacci Retracement: AMD: The chart shows Fibonacci levels drawn from the recent peak to the trough. Key levels are around 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. Entry Points: Look for buying opportunities at the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels, which historically act as strong support zones where price often reverses. Exit Points: Set targets around the 23.6% retracement level or the previous high, considering volume and momentum. QCOM: Similar Fibonacci strategy applies. Identify retracement levels from recent highs to lows. Entry: Buy at 38.2% or 50% if the price shows reversal patterns like bullish engulfing or hammer at these levels. Exit: Aim for the 23.6% level or previous resistance zones. 2. Market Segment Analysis: AMD: Given its position in the semiconductor industry, especially with advancements in AI and gaming, AMD's price movements can be influenced by tech sector trends, competitor news, and broader market sentiment towards tech stocks. Strategy: Keep an eye on industry news, competitor earnings, and broader market indices like NASDAQ for correlation. QCOM: As a key player in mobile technology and IoT, QCOM's stock can be influenced by mobile device sales cycles, 5G adoption rates, and regulatory news concerning its licensing model. Strategy: Monitor global smartphone market trends, regulatory news, and advancements in 5G/6G technology for potential impact on stock price. 3. Risk Management: Stop Losses: Place stop losses below the last significant low for long positions or above significant highs for shorts, adjusted for volatility. Position Sizing: Ensure no single trade risks more than 1-2% of your total trading capital to manage risk effectively. 4. Integration with Other Tools: Volume Analysis: Use volume spikes to confirm trend strength or potential reversals. Earnings Reports: Both stocks are sensitive to earnings. Plan trades around these events, considering options for less risk if expecting volatility. This strategy leverages technical analysis with Fibonacci retracement for entry/exit points, aligns with broader market trends, and considers segment-specific news for AMD and QCOM, aiming for a balanced approach between technical precision and fundamental awareness.
NASDAQ:AMD
by stocktechbot
AMD - long position (1D)Hi traders, Long position on AMD (1D), based on the trend reversal suggested by the Williams Alligator. We backtested this strategy in the last year, entering long or short only when the price closed above (for long) and under (for short) the line of the teeth (red line). When this happened there was usually a crossing of the lines of the indicator. We put our take profit where the price hit a support/resistance or when a candle closed under the red line (close long position) or above the red line (close short position). We put our stop loss at the level of the resistance/support or when, after the crossing of the lines of the Alligator, a candle closed under the red line (for long position, closing with a loss) or above the red line (for short position, closing with a loss). This strategy gave a return of 16.5% since January 2024. In this case the stop loss will be few cents under the support level and the take profit will be at the level of the previous resistance. In any case we should close our position if the price will close under the red line. Good luck!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by vf_investment
Be careful with AMD !!!In my opinion, the shares of this company are 14.5% overvalued and should reach a price of $137. The reason for the recent decline in AMD shares is due to cautious statements at Morgan Stanley. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday following cautious comments from Morgan Stanley, highlighting concerns over the company's AI supply chain strategy. Analysts noted that AMD appears to have reduced its wafer bookings for MI325 at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. Morgan Stanley stated, 'It appears that AMD has reduced some of its CoWoS wafer bookings at TSMC for 2025 due to uncertainty over MI325 demand. This move indicates AMD's conservative approach to managing potential demand volatility for its AI processors.' However, Morgan Stanley analysts added that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) quickly absorbed the vacated capacity at TSMC, emphasizing Nvidia's aggressive positioning in the AI market. The bank's note also provides insight into broader trends in the semiconductor industry, indicating that other companies are ramping up production. For instance, Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL) tripled its CoWoS bookings for 2025 compared to 2024. Meanwhile, Intel's Habana division kept its wafer bookings at TSMC unchanged, indicating stability in its AI-related production. The cautious tone from analysts on AMD follows a period of intense competition in the AI space, with Nvidia strengthening its leadership. The note also mentions that 'WPG's sales in the third quarter grew 25% quarter-over-quarter, compared to previous guidance of only 5.5% quarter-over-quarter growth,' with the bank noting 'increased business from AMD processors and GPUs.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by CobraVanguard
2
AMD Chart-Based Probabilistic TargetsFRACTAL SCALING For a start I'll use the monthly timeframe that captures the broader market cycles and observes the structural trends to understand the scale and distribution of randomness over time. We need a solid foundation before diving into finer timeframes for more detailed analysis. Capturing critical points of a cycle with Fibonacci channels, especially when aligned with the direction of the trend, reveals hidden non-linear dynamics due to the following reasons: Fibonacci ratios reveal fractal structures that align with key reversal points in cycles, reflecting inherent market patterns. Directionality highlights trend asymmetries, showing where price reacts differently in bullish or bearish conditions. Cycles map the rhythm of reversals, exposing non-random patterns in market transitions. Price reacts disproportionately at Fibonacci levels, reflecting non-linear market forces like supply and demand. Hidden symmetry emerges, revealing harmonic relationships within price swings. Integration of time and price uncovers rhythm, where significant moves align with Fibonacci projections. Historical patterns anticipate future reactions, showing the underlying structure of market behavior. Justified Shift This version of the wave metrics aligns the top of the Fibonacci channel with a more recent cycle high, allowing it to better reflect the current price structure. By anchoring the top cycle closer to the present price action, the analysis enhances the accuracy of the underlying frequency dynamics and non-linear relationships. This adjustment also highlights a clearer transition between past and current cycles, capturing how momentum evolves within the channel. The updated metrics likely improve the identification of potential reversal zones or continuation points relative to the new cycle top. Curves Curves are essential in fractal analysis because they reveal the non-linear dynamics and self-similar structures that govern market behavior. Unlike straight lines, curves accurately model the natural rhythm of price movements, capturing how trends accelerate or decelerate over time and oscillate between key levels. By connecting critical price points such as highs, lows, and retracement levels, curves expose the proportional relationships that link fractals, often aligning with natural laws like the Fibonacci sequence. They also define boundaries like "Full Capacity," highlighting where price tends to exhaust momentum and reverse, offering a roadmap for identifying turning points. Furthermore, curves integrate time and price, capturing the dynamic relationship between the two and providing deeper insights into how cycles evolve and repeat. In fractal analysis, they bridge the gap between mathematical models and real market behavior, making them invaluable for interpreting and anticipating price action. Weekly Timeframe AMD’s remarkable growth of 14,018.01% from $1.61 to its all-time high signals an impressive rally, but it also raises the likelihood of growing bearish pressure as the market enters an overheated condition. Such parabolic moves are rarely sustainable, and they often lead to exhaustion, where natural resistance levels, such as the upper bounds of the Fibonacci channel, come into play. These levels, particularly the "Full Capacity" threshold, often signal overbought conditions, triggering profit-taking by institutional investors and traders. As price approaches these critical thresholds, momentum typically begins to slow, with indicators like RSI or volume divergence potentially signaling weakening bullish sentiment. The natural cyclical behavior of markets, combined with extended valuations, creates a favorable environment for bearish reversals. Additionally, macroeconomic risks, declining earnings growth, or broader fundamental concerns can further amplify selling pressure. If price fails to maintain upward momentum or begins forming bearish reversal patterns such as lower highs or rising wedges, it may confirm that the market is entering a corrective phase. Monitoring technical indicators, such as volume trends and momentum divergences, alongside fundamental triggers, will be essential in assessing whether bearish pressure will dominate in the near term. Repetitive Patterns The repetitive pattern circled in yellow represents a critical cyclical phase in AMD's price movement. Each time this pattern completes, it is immediately followed by an "off-the-range" move that resembles the beginning of a super cycle. This phenomenon suggests that the yellow-circled phase acts as a precursor to a significant shift in the market's dynamics, where price transitions into a larger, more powerful trend. That fractal may indicate consolidation or accumulation, where price oscillates within a confined range before breaking out. This breakout initiates a super cycle, marked by a rapid and sustained directional move beyond the previous range. The repetitive nature of this sequence highlights the fractal behavior of the market, where similar patterns recur at different scales, providing opportunities to anticipate major market movements. Fractal I Fractal II
NASDAQ:AMD
by fract
4
AMD Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulder SetupSummary: AMD has been in a multi week (beginning 11/12) inverse head & shoulders pattern that formed within a broader descending channel. There is very little selling pressure on the current test of inverse H&S neckline (142.9) and trendline resistance so I would expect a small, low volume pullback before we get a breakout above the neckline and full reversal. In addition to this, AMD just broke above the 20d SMA and in previous reversal crossovers this year, they were followed by significant uptrends (see Aug’24 and Sep’24 for reference). Bullish Thesis is valid unless the right shoulder fails to form; my preference would be a small right shoulder forming above 139.7 buy zone. Trade Plan: Day trade or swing calls on a break above 142.9 with expectations of bullish run to 145 & 148. Stop loss would be 20% or failed breakout and loss of 140.9. I will likely be looking for 2-3 week expirations and 145C. Risk vs Reward: +$5 upside, -$2 downside (2.5:1)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by brycat23
AMD Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst Cyclic AnalysisIt’s been a while since my last update on AMD. Looking at the wave structure, I believe we are currently in a complex pullback, correcting the bullish move from October 2022 to March 2024. This correction appears to be a double zigzag, and we’re in the process of completing wave A of the second zigzag (labeled 'y'). Analyzing the cycles, we can see that the trough from October 2023 aligns with an 80-week (80W) cycle trough and the trough in August 2024 aligns with a 40-week (40W) cycle. Currently, I’m expecting the first 20-week (20W) cycle of this 40W cycle, which is actually the second 40W cycle in the 80W cycle, to occur around December 18th. This would correspond to wave A of the y leg of the larger wave II in the wave analysis. Following this, I anticipate a rally that should take us higher before the extreme bearish phase begins as we approach the 80W cycle trough, which is expected in early April 2025. There is an alternative (less likely) bullish scenario to keep in mind. If wave B becomes more strongly bullish, I would shift my bias to that scenario. However, until that happens, my preferred view remains as shown in the chart.
NASDAQ:AMD
by bamdadsalarieh