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AMZN trade ideas
Finding Confluences Increase Trade ProbabilitiesFinding confluences in securities always increases chances of a successful trade. In this example, FEMA (Custom Fragmented Exponential Moving Average) is stacked correctly, the price bounced off FEMA on the pullback, and the pullback also matched Fib 0.382 level. Expecting price to reach $190.98, as that was prior high level, and it also matched the Fibonacci 1.272 extension. Then, expecting $195.64, which is Fib 1.618 extension, and Keltner Channel upper band(upper green line) is estimating price to reach that level before reverting back to the mean.
Analysis of Amazon (AMZN) Price Action: Short to Medium Term OutAnalysis of Amazon (AMZN) Price Action: Short to Medium Term Outlook
Upon examining the hourly timeline for Amazon (AMZN), it becomes evident that the stock is currently testing a significant support level that has been established since late April. This support line has proven resilient, having been touched multiple times over the past few weeks.
Technical Analysis Overview
Support Line Analysis: The repeated tests of the support line suggest that it is a robust level where buyers have consistently stepped in to prevent further declines. This indicates strong buying interest whenever the stock approaches this zone.
Bullish Signal: The bounce off this support line in the recent price action signals a potential bullish reversal in the short to medium term. This pattern often suggests that buyers are willing to enter at these levels, viewing the current price as attractive for accumulation.
Volume Confirmation: It would be prudent to confirm this potential reversal with a look at trading volumes. Ideally, an increase in volume accompanying the bounce off support would strengthen the bullish case, indicating conviction among buyers.
Resistance Levels: As the stock attempts to bounce, the next critical hurdle will be overcoming nearby resistance levels. These levels could coincide with previous highs or key moving averages, which may act as barriers in the short term.
Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators
Macro Environment: Understanding the broader market sentiment and economic indicators can provide context. Factors such as consumer spending trends, economic data releases, and sector-specific news can impact Amazon’s stock performance.
Competitive Landscape: Monitoring developments among Amazon’s competitors and within the e-commerce sector can also offer insights into future price movements.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current technical setup on the hourly chart of Amazon (AMZN) suggests a bullish outlook in the short to medium term. The repeated testing and bounce off the strong support line since late April indicate resilience and potential accumulation by market participants. However, traders and investors should remain vigilant for any signs of reversal or failure to sustain above resistance levels. Confirmation through volume and market sentiment analysis will be crucial in validating this bullish scenario.
This analysis provides a foundation for decision-making but should be complemented with broader market analysis and risk management strategies to navigate potential volatility and market uncertainties effectively.
Updated AMZN inverse H&SHere is the weekly view of the AMZN inverse head and shoulders I finished a while ago. I added a demand zone as well. You will note a nice bounce on the 20EMA supporting this idea long-term. My short-term target is still 210$ here. A brief dip into demand and blastoff is my prediction.
-A test of 189$ is needed before the 210$, this is the area of resistance that would allow for price discovery as well
-There is not much resistance until that point
AMZN Flagging MonthlyAMZN has be prepping for a breakout for 3 months now, this prime day could be catalyst for the breakout. We might see 200 soon.
$AMZN
I believe Amazon's stock will retrace to $175 or below for several reasons. Firstly, we've touched the top of the consolidating range at $188 for the third time, suggesting strong resistance at this level. Additionally, there's a bear flag forming on the hourly chart, indicating potential downward momentum. This presents a great buying opportunity when the stock hits the $175 area. Furthermore, with Prime Day coming up next month, I anticipate it will act as a catalyst to drive the stock back up to $200.
Why Amazon's Stock Surge is Just the BeginningAmazon has delivered an impressive performance this year, with its stock appreciating over 20%. Many analysts believe this is just the beginning of a much larger upward trend.
Amazon's business model is undergoing a significant transformation, presenting a unique opportunity for investors. Here are three key insights that make a compelling case for buying Amazon stock now.
Resurgence in Amazon Web Services' Growth
Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company's cloud computing division, is experiencing a strong resurgence. AWS allows clients to rent computing space and run workloads over the cloud, a popular strategy that enables customers to scale computing power as needed. This is particularly relevant as many companies are developing AI models to enhance their operations.
Despite sluggish demand for AWS in 2023 compared to competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, the outlook is improving. Amazon's significant investment in Anthropic, a generative AI startup, has equipped AWS with advanced AI tools. CEO Andy Jassy highlighted this in Amazon's Q1 conference call, stating, "We see considerable momentum on the AI front where we've accumulated a multibillion-dollar revenue run rate already."
This positive development is reflected in the financial results. In Q1, AWS saw a 17% year-over-year increase in net sales and an 84% rise in operating income. Another growth catalyst is the end of the optimization trend. Last year, companies focused on cost-cutting, including optimizing cloud computing spending. With this trend now complete, AWS is benefiting from new workloads, rather than declining revenue from reduced workloads.
AWS remains Amazon's most profitable segment, which is crucial for its success. However, other areas of the business are also starting to contribute significantly.
Amazon's Accelerating Cash Generation
While AWS has long been profitable, Amazon's commerce divisions haven't always shared that success. The company had to recover from significant investments in its supply network in 2021 and 2022, which affected its North American division. Additionally, Amazon's international operations have historically been unprofitable, but this is starting to change. In Q1, the international segment posted its first profitable quarter since 2021.
This turnaround has significantly bolstered Amazon's cash generation, which is now gaining momentum.
In the past 12 months, Amazon has generated $50.1 billion in free cash flow (FCF), a stark contrast to the $3.3 billion FCF outflow in Q1 of the previous year. The trends associated with this FCF are equally encouraging.
Historically, the first quarter is weak for Amazon due to high spending in Q4. This pattern results in a relative peak at the start of each new year, followed by a significant decline. This occurred again in 2024, but notably, this was the first year in recent memory that the drawdown did not result in a negative FCF. Additionally, the Q4 peak was the highest it has ever been.
This indicates that Amazon's cash flows are improving and sustainable, which is a positive sign for investors. As Amazon's cash flows increase, the company could initiate a dividend or start repurchasing stock, benefiting long-term investors.
Amazon is Still Below Its Average Valuation
Despite Amazon's significant cash flow growth and improvements across its business, the stock is still undervalued based on its price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Traditional valuation metrics centered around earnings aren't as useful for Amazon yet, but the P/S ratio indicates that Amazon is valued at levels seen during the post-COVID demand drawdown and before that in 2018.
This suggests that the stock isn't overvalued and could be a reasonable purchase today.
Considering Amazon's growth prospects and increasing FCF, Amazon is an excellent buy right now. There are still many aspects of Amazon's business poised for transformation, and investors will benefit from buying and holding it for the long term.
Previous Idea
Is AMZN Ready to Break $200?Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is demonstrating robust performance amidst a backdrop of market volatility. With its stock currently trading around $187.06 in pre-market action, Amazon is poised for significant movements. Let's dive into a detailed technical analysis to explore potential trading opportunities, leveraging indicators, candlestick patterns, and the latest financial news.
The daily candlestick chart for Amazon displays a notable bullish momentum. The latest candles are trading above key moving averages, including the 10, 20, 50, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This bullish engulfing pattern suggests a potential continuation of the upward trend.
The price is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a strong bullish trend. The conversion line (blue) is above the base line (red), further confirming the upward momentum. The span A is above span B, reinforcing the bullish outlook. This setup is traditionally a signal to enter long positions.
RSI (14) The Relative Strength Index is at 59.70, indicating that the stock is in neutral territory but leaning towards overbought conditions.
MACD The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive at 0.20, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting a buy.
Stochastic Oscillator At 89.08, it shows the stock is approaching overbought levels but can still sustain upward momentum.
Awesome Oscillator Slightly negative at -0.17 but insignificant to alter the bullish stance significantly.
Amazon’s market capitalization stands at an impressive $1.95 trillion, with a Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) of 51.76, highlighting investor confidence in its growth potential. The company’s revenue for 2023 is strong, and the forecast suggests continued growth, especially in the cloud computing segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Expansion in AI and Cloud Amazon’s recent initiatives in AI and further expansion in cloud services are creating positive market sentiment. Reports of AWS securing significant new contracts could propel stock prices further.
Consumer Demand Despite broader economic concerns, Amazon’s dominance in e-commerce and its ability to adapt to consumer trends positions it well against competitors.
Amazon’s trading volume is substantial, with an average volume of 40.83 million over the past 30 days, indicating strong investor interest. The recent price action shows a clear breakout above the $185 resistance level, suggesting that the stock could test the $200 psychological level soon.
Resistance Levels (R1, R2, R3) $187.48, $198.50, and $216.33 respectively
Support Levels (S1, S2, S3) $169.64, $162.84, and $145.01 respectively
Trade Strategy and Price Targets
Long Position
Entry Point Consider entering a long position at the current price around $187.06.
Stop Loss Set a stop loss below the recent support level at $182.00 to manage downside risk.
Target Price First target at $200 (R1), and if the bullish momentum continues, look towards $216.33 (R3) as a secondary target.
Short Position
Entry Point Only consider shorting if the price breaks below the $180.67 pivot point.
Stop Loss Place a stop loss at $185.00.
Target Price Initial target at $169.64 (S1), and further downside potential towards $162.84 (S2) if the bearish trend intensifies.
Amazon's stock is currently exhibiting strong bullish signals, supported by technical indicators and positive market sentiment. With a potential breakout above $200, there are compelling opportunities for long positions. However, traders should remain vigilant for any signs of a trend reversal and manage risk through well-placed stop losses.
Resistance break event pointAccording to the idea of AMZN stock, the direction of the stock is upward, which can be analyzed from the perspective shown in the image to enter for profit at the Take Profit point.
"Investors should understand the nature of the product, return conditions, and risks before making investment decisions."
amazon stock on buy postionwe can enter amazon boy but we must keep the stop under the support shown in the graph
Amazon 1 h chart Fibo correction suspected to 183.37-178.64
2 gaps 181.35-182.07 and 181.49 -181.42
178.96 middle angle of Gann
good luck
AMZN BreakoutAMZN had been forming a descending channel/bull flag and had a fakeout below, but quickly recovered and has now closed above. Looking like a great pick if tech stocks continue the bull run this week. My longer term target would be ATH, for shorter term, it may struggle at some of these previous highs.
Amazon - Two trading setups!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Amazon.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2020 Amazon stock created massive resistance roughly at the $180 level and started a major correction away from the resistance in 2022. As we are speaking Amazon stock is once again retesting this major resistance level and is therefore at a quite decisive inflection point. Either we will see a breakout or another rejection after which we could then see the overall continuation towards the upside.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMZN touching a 7 year trend support 👁🚀last time it bottomed out at this trend support was in June 2022, this pattern led to a rally from 101-146 (44.55%)
we are currently seeing the same pattern play out over a year later.. there are no guarantees in this market but a rally from 126.5 to 182 (roughly 44 % gain) may follow if we bounce here.🎯
definitely something to keep an eye on, boost and follow for more! 💙
AMZN Ride the ChannelAmazon has been trading in this bullish channel since Nov and has reversed off the bottom trend line today. HMA crossing bullish. Long here.
AMZN Under Pressure to Offer a DividendInventory adjustments are underway for $NASDAQ:AMZN. These adjustments are minor as Dark Pools are holding AMZN long-term, but there are other opportunities to boost ROI in younger companies.
AMZN needs to provide a dividend now that it is a Dow 30 stock. The mild rotation is a gentle reminder to the Board of Directors from their most critical and important investors, the Giant Buy Side Institutions. AMZN is the only fortune 500 company on the S&P500 that doesn't provide a dividend YET. The company's CEO is seasoned and aware that the Board must soon offer dividends, as it is no longer merely a "growth" company.
The pressure is increasing to force a dividend by the Giant investors. This should happen this year. There are no buybacks going on right now either. So the lowering of inventory is a warning to get this done. The Buy Side has the clout to influence the Board's decisions. This would benefit all investors big and small.
The support is at the lows of the red box on the chart, as indicated by the gap down white candle that quickly ended the previous selling by smaller funds.
WHEN, not if, AMZN announces a dividend, there is likely to be some brief momentum activity to the upside.
Amazon.com Holds a Key LevelAmazon.com has flirted with new highs for almost two months, and some investors may see an opportunity in its current pullback.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the price zone around $175. It was a low on April 30, immediately before AMZN jumped on strong earnings. The e-commerce stock tested and held the level on Friday, followed by a bullish inside candle on Monday. Is support in place?
Second, the bounce is occurring near the rising 100-day simple moving average. That may reflect a bullish long-term trend.
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
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AmznMost likely they push this up to 195-200 or trend line resistance here..
Hammer candle with volume at 50sma
Looks like a cup and handle to me
Stop loss below 180
weekly view AMZN inverse head and shoulderThis pattern is not easy to see on the daily, so I added a more clear visualization of it on the weekly. H&S are rarely symmetrical and lining up perfectly. What draws me to this chart is more the bottoming stochastic, the prior high volume pump, the aggressive step in from buyers on the formation of the head. Mix this with AMZN and GOOGL being much more undervalued than the rest of the Mag 7 and you have a recipe for an explosion. Election year too.
-210$ is still my price target
