reversal imminent back to or above the shaded areaPlayed it to the upper 160s from the 140s, now looking for signs of a reversal and seeing plenty of those, including overbought resistance levels.
ANFD trade ideas
ANF reversal or dead-cat bounce?
NYSE:ANF
ANF has recently pulled back from its all-time high (ATH) following its latest earnings report. Despite strong earnings, same-store sales, and electronic sales growth, and a dynamic inventory selection, concerns about a potential recession have weighed on the stock.
Key Developments:
Recently dropped below the 100-day Moving Average (MA)
Retested the 200-day MA
Bounced off the 200-day MA
Broke out of a triangle formation on a 15-minute timeframe
Broke above the 100-day MA but failed to break above previous support
Expected Outcomes:
Bullish scenario: If ANF bounces off the 100-day MA and reclaims the previous support level, it could retest the 50-day MA, coinciding with the upper limit of the current negative channel. In this case, I would consider near-term put options to hedge against a potential retest of the 200-day MA.
Bearish scenario: If ANF fails to hold above the 100-day MA and the $150 support level, it is likely to retest the 200-day MA.
I am closely monitoring the $150 level and will make decisions based on price action this week. Given the current macro environment, I prefer to be short this position. If the bullish scenario unfolds, I will wait for a retest of the upper channel limit before taking action. With key economic data, including retail sales, being released this week, expect volatility. Regardless of my position, I plan to be short-term and exit before the next earnings report.
ANF correction before next earningsANF has had an incredible run during these past 12 M and YTD, shooting up over 359% and 94% respectively. The stock is performing tremendously and has even had comparison to AI giant NVDA.
But the NVDA bubble has popped, and I believe ANF will likely follow. With such a huge difference between a 3T and 9B market cap, I believe ANF will fall far more rapidly upon break of support.
Expecting price to drop as much as 17% from current levels and likely consolidate and continue its run up near if not post its Q2 2024 earnings date.
ANF recently bounced off 100 MA. Will the rise continue?
ANF's Recent Pullback and Future Outlook
ANF has experienced a significant pullback from its all-time highs after its most recent earnings report. This trend isn't unique to ANF, as even Lululemon (LULU), a market leader, has seen a drawdown since the year's beginning.
However, I believe ANF's current rise is likely a short-term bounce, not a sustained trend reversal. Since the last earnings release, the upward trend has stalled, and a downward trend seems to be taking precedence. The recent rise is unlikely to last long.
Several factors support this view:
Earnings Season: Upcoming earnings reports from various companies might reveal difficulties compared to the strong performances of mega-cap stocks at the end of last week. This could continue the downward trend for ANF.
Federal Reserve Meeting: The market awaits Chair Powell's interest rate decision on Wednesday. With inflation persisting, the Fed may be forced to maintain higher rates for a longer period, potentially impacting consumer spending and retail stocks like ANF.
Technical Analysis:
Technically, ANF is approaching resistance at the channel and the 50-day moving average (MA). Based on this, a pullback starting around $123 is expected. If the trend of lower highs and lower lows continues, ANF could fall below its 100-day MA, potentially reaching much lower levels before retesting the 200-day MA.
NYSE:ANF NASDAQ:LULU NYSE:RL
"Confluence of Rivers"while ANF has performed well recently, analysts are cautious about its future growth, suggesting a hold position for current investors and recommending careful consideration before making new investments.
$ANFNYSE:ANF This is setting up nice if it holds here, a few inside days. Expect a breakout coming off great earnings. Looks like its setup up for another cup n handle or just big breakout.
ANF retrace from ATH: eyes on $104 then 92 ideal retrace TargetANF has been on a relentless bull run.
It has obviously hit "a" top if not "the" top.
Mapped are key areas of interest for entries.
$ 111.65-112.64 is current support, should break.
$ 103.14-103.14 is the minimum expected retrace.
$ 91.53 - 92.54 is the 'Ideal" zone for long entries.
Key is to observe price action at each fib for clues.
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Buy Abercrombie & FitchShort Term Trading Advice by Naranj Capital
Buy Abercrombie & Fitch
● Buy Range- 180 - 185
● Target- 200 - 205
● StopLoss- 170
● Potential Return- 8-11%
● Duration- 12-14 Trading Days
Abercrombie & Fitch Surge On Booming Sales and Higher GuidanceAbercrombie & Fitch ( NYSE:ANF ) shares rose 23.27% to an all-time high on Wednesday as the clothing retailer's first-quarter results exceeded estimates and raised its guidance. The company reported quarterly net income of $113.9 million, nearly seven times greater than a year ago, with earnings per share (EPS) of $2.14, up from $0.32 in 2023. Revenue jumped 22% year-over-year to $1.02 billion, a first-quarter record. Profit and revenue topped forecasts.
Sales of the Abercrombie brand climbed 31% to $571.5 million, while Hollister brand sales rose 12% to $449.2 million. They were up 23% to $820.1 million in the Americas, 19% to $164.8 million in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and 10% to $35.8 million in the Asia-Pacific region. CEO Fran Horowitz said the company "successfully navigated seasonal transitions with relevant assortments and compelling marketing, leveraging agile chase capabilities and inventory discipline."
Abercrombie ( NYSE:ANF ) now expects full-year sales to rise about 10% from $4.3 billion in fiscal 2023, up from its previous outlook of a 4% to 6% gain. It sees an operating margin of approximately 14% compared with the earlier prediction of about 12%. Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch ( NYSE:ANF ) soared more than 24% to $189.40 as of the time of writing after touching a record $182.86 earlier in the session. They have more than doubled this year.
Abercrombie & Fitch's ( NYSE:ANF ) "Always Forward Plan" playbook aims to drive global growth through a data-driven approach to store expansion, digital marketing, and social selling. The retailer's sales channels are varied, with the Abercrombie brands selling 40% in stores and 60% digital, while the Hollister brand sells 70% in stores and 30% digital. The company targets millennials who are "fashion-obsessed" and "digitally-led," while the Hollister brand is aimed at Generation Z shoppers who are "comfort obsessed" and "value versatility."
Technically, Abercrombie & Fitch's ( NYSE:ANF ) stock is currently overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 86.64. The daily price chart depicts a long bullish Harami candle stick pattern which accentuate the bullish reversal of the ticker.
will $205.5 be $ANF long-term top?Abercrombie & Fitch’s growth was broad-based across regions and brands. Abercrombie brands registered 31% growth, while Hollister brands delivered 12% growth. The company’s agile approach to assortments, marketing, and inventory management contributed to these impressive results
5/28/24 - $anf - see better setups elsewhere, risky. sidelines.5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ANF - heresy to dislike this valuation? i get it's had a renaissance. it's profitable. 5% yield that's good! 19x PE! good capital stack. it's still cheaper than NASDAQ:LULU without any of the baggage all else equal. the issue here, my friends, is this price point is becoming more and more problematic. NASDAQ:PDD 's temu just crushed it. discount brands are taking share. me-too styles are eating away at brand leaders. i worry we'll see this show up sooner than later in the ANF equation.
i'm going to be sitting out on this one b/c i'm not a fan of shorting a hot tape and nevermind a red hot individual chart like this one. but it's one of these situations where it's hard to park and ride for a few days of additional upside and in any down day, it could a. be large and b. see a follow-on reaction like we did in the white-girl-wasted names that reported earlier... NYSE:TGT , NASDAQ:LULU , NASDAQ:SBUX , NASDAQ:ULTA ( NYSE:ELF was the exception - congrats/ but the growth equation was like massive double digit and it's a discount brand too).
if you're gonna bet on retail that generates good margin, slightly larger biz, "less" discretionary - i'd go with NYSE:DKS reporting the same AM and i'll be writing up in a moment - though i'm not probably on the sidelines here.
careful fam. no need to get taylor-swift-kick-in-the-nuts.
Breakout TradeThe breakout move to the upside signals that the strong uptrend move resumes its due course after a deservedly brief retreat.
Wait ANF Doesn't Make AI Chips?Thesis: Bearish momentum on the daily and weekly stochastic. Closed below the 48 day ema, MTD, and YTD Anchored Vwap. Trend on daily ema ribbon has fliped bearish.
However price found Support on -1 monthly ART level so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce.
If it bounces back to the daily ribbon and the bearish moment is still in tact sell the rip! I will be watching this closely and may enter a small position in case it dumps without a retest.
$ANF sink below support levelNYSE:ANF Down following news on hot inflation data as catalyst to go below the support or demand zone. To watch when market opens to short it. DYDD.
ANF 3d Chart, Q2 2024ANF, one of the silliest charts out there, you'd think it was a tech company. Up >500% since this time last year
Guessing when this parabolic advance breaks down, this heads closer to 100, but in the meanwhile, just watching the craziness.
ANF showing a pennant patternNYSE:ANF Showing a pennant pattern with a ~$50 upside. Buying on the dips.
Breakdown from the channel confirming the downward bearish reverBreakdown from the channel confirming the downward bearish reversal. Last weekly candle broke down but we need a confirmation candle to further solidify the breakdown. Price heading lower to our pointed price targets
Abercrombie & Fitch Co running out of steamAbercrombie & Fitch Co has been a rock star performance driver of late; we have noticed a turning point. Sentiment and momentum have shifted to bearish which has triggered our belief that a short position now is the right allocation play. We fully expect as the RSI & Stochastics have shifted bearish further validating our belief that price trajectory is expected to moved below the next Fibonacci support levels on the way down with mild bounce expected along the way down
Abercrombie & Fitch Continues Winning Streak Amidst a tumultuous market environment, Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE: NYSE:ANF ) has emerged as a beacon of resilience and growth, with its latest forecast painting a rosy picture for the apparel giant. The company's confident projection of full-year revenue growth exceeding Wall Street estimates underscores its unwavering confidence in the strength of its brands and the buoyancy of consumer demand.
In a recent update, Abercrombie & Fitch ( NYSE:ANF ) revealed its anticipation of robust revenue expansion, buoyed by a surge in full-price demand for its apparel offerings. The optimism stems from a successful holiday shopping season and a promising start to spring in the United States, with consumers demonstrating a penchant for Abercrombie's fresh styles and meticulously curated collections.
The company's strategic initiatives, including inventory optimization and the introduction of compelling new designs, have paid dividends, catapulting Abercrombie ( NYSE:ANF ) alongside industry peers like Lululemon Athletica, which have similarly benefited from a proactive approach to inventory management.
Notably, Abercrombie's emphasis on enhancing customer experiences both online and in-store has resonated positively, driving engagement and fostering brand loyalty. By ramping up marketing efforts and investing in digital platforms, Abercrombie ( NYSE:ANF ) has positioned itself for sustained success throughout the fiscal year.
Abercrombie's ( NYSE:ANF ) forward-looking guidance paints a promising picture, with first-quarter net sales expected to soar in the low double digits, surpassing market expectations. The company's spring collection has already garnered favorable reviews, indicating strong momentum heading into the new season.
While Abercrombie ( NYSE:ANF ) basks in the glow of its recent accomplishments, challenges loom on the horizon, including potential disruptions in shipping and raw material costs stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea. However, the company remains agile and resilient, poised to navigate these headwinds while staying true to its growth trajectory.
Analysts echo Abercrombie's ( NYSE:ANF ) bullish sentiment, with Telsey Advisory Group's Dana Telsey highlighting the resilience of the A&F brand and its ability to drive margin expansion through digital growth. The company's fourth-quarter performance, which exceeded analysts' expectations both in terms of revenue and earnings per share, further underscores its strong position in the market.
Despite a marginal dip in early trading, Abercrombie's ( NYSE:ANF ) shares have enjoyed a remarkable rally, nearly quadrupling in value last year and continuing their ascent with a 60% increase year-to-date. Investors have taken notice of Abercrombie's ( NYSE:ANF ) impressive performance and its ability to navigate challenges with poise and confidence.
ANF double top with negative divergence. Time to buy a put??ANF has been on an absolute tear. Is it warranted?? Yes, their earning have drastically improved, but is this growth sustainable with continued increases in credit default rates?
This brand has no cult following like that of Lululemon.
YTD +40%
1 year chart +331%
+66% previous peak in 2007 when this clothing brand was the one and only for teens.
Currently trading 100% over 200-day moving average
Recently broke above resistance and will retest this channel.
Starting to look like a double top with negative divergence.
I will keep a close eye on this stock as it retests the top of the previous channel. If it bounces, I will exit the position. If it falls through we should be good.
ANF - What on Earth is happening?Can someone please explain this to me? ANF is at an all time high. Well over the peak valuation from it's height of popularity in 2007. The weekly chart is so overbought it's laughable, but is it done? I'm so tempted to start shorting. Each one of these pumps has been followed by an equally ruthless plunge. Will this time be different?
ANF - Trend exhausted or further to goANF has had a couple of strong gaps up. The last exceeded its measured range. While it looks like we may have missed the opportunity, we're coming up on its highest performing month of the year. Over the past 20 years it closes November higher 60% of the time with an average gain of 8%.
To play this one, I'd look for a smaller play on a pullback to 51-52, which is the 0.382 of the fib extension and where it has confluence with VWAPs anchored to key areas around its recent gap up. A second long opportunity would be an entry at the top of the gap (more aggressive) or the opening of the gap (conservative). If that gap closes it will be important to review the volume and candlestick pattern to estimate whether it is a retest or a breakdown.
