BABA trade ideas
BABA, BIG POTENTIAL FOR EARNINGS BREAKOUT (BULLISH)Like the title says, Bullish.
There is so much going on behind the scenes based on the world events today.
BUT, in the end, BABA is going to be a big supplier of goods across the Asia continent, and there are a LOT of people to sell to.
Put/Call chart is included, I've highlighted the outliers.
Does this mean I'm suggesting to yolo puts and calls? Probably not, but to be totally honest, if you do, I wish luck and hope you make bank. However, I'd say it's risky for short term options.
Long term options on the other hand, if you can buy the spread dip, I like the prices on calls.
I personally think BABA will be a rise and crash stock.
There are numbers showing well in the range of 600 and 700.
Similar to TSLA (previous run), META (current run). Similar, not exact, but similar.
Would I be surprised if the stock was $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Would I expect the stock to be at $800 by Sept, NOPE.
Possible and probable are two different things.
I'm currently eying the potential to hold $63, and maybe even already has and will hold $69, but it's good to be prepared on the low side in case of drops.
RSI is in alignment for one hell of a move to the upside should it want to use earnings as an excuse to rocket.
Basically, in all, my opinion on BABA based on the chart, I'm a fan currently.
In other words, there is a better than average chance for profit and limited losses should you decide to buy at these levels.
If you invest in amazon, you'd probably love BABA, especially if you can sell one at a high, and buy the other at a low, and then keep repeating the process until you own them both.
Good luck!
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (‘BABA’)
Shares in Alibaba Group Holding Limited (symbol ‘BABA’) incurred losses in the fourth quarter of around 11%. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter ending December 2023 is set to be released on Wednesday 7th of February, before market open. The consensus EPS is $2.40 compared to the same quarter of last year at $2.44.
‘As of 30/09/2023 the price to earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of the company was at 9.39 which is considered relatively low compared to the average of S&P 500 for example which is around 23. This means that investors are not expecting any significant growth for the company and are somewhat reluctant to invest. Also the company has around 3.2% more long term debt year over year and is making up almost 25% of the total liabilities.’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness
On the technical side the price is testing the resistance level of the 50 day moving average trading just above the support of the 78.6% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic oscillator has moved away from the extreme overbought levels while at the same time the faster moving average is trading below the slower one indicating that the overall bearish momentum in the market is still valid. If the price manages to make a valid break above the 50 day moving average then the first level of possible resistance might be seen around the $80 price area which consists of the psychological resistance of the round number, the 100 day moving average and is also just below the 61.8% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement level.
a daily price action after hour update - alibabaGood evening and i hope you are well.
I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY".
The only question right now for this stock is, what comes first: Touch of monthly 20ema or 60 ? Who knows. I surely don't and neither do you. Right now bulls are making some tails below bars but the last time a month printed above the previous one was 2023-07. I drew 2 bear trend lines which make me think the odds of trading to 60 are higher than going up. I have zero hope for this until 60 or lower is tested multiple times and it then manages to trade above the monthly 20ema again.
Alibaba group to goo long in few weeksAlibaba just hit the lowest level n ready for the long term invest, am seeing a good opportunity to invest n hold in bigger time frame,as institution trader your job is to generate the liquidity into positions.
BabaWeekly volume inflow last week was enormous, add to that you have a bullish engulfing at the bottom of a falling wedge and its a nice setup to belong here into Qt2.
Weekly MACD flipping over bullish also
The move should be 30% upon wedge breakout, which would put Ali baba at 100 by mid spring.
My targets are
77
90
103
$BABA, Could it be main investment opportunity of 2024 ? With Alibaba trading at a depressed valuation, is this a compelling buying opportunity? While the current price presents an attractive entry point, it's essential to conduct a thorough analysis before making any investment decisions. I'll be employing the EW 2.0 model to assess the company's historical price movement and identify potential buying signals.
BUY BABAAlibaba is one of the world largest online and mobile commerce company. It operates China's online marketplaces, including Taobao and Tmall. The company is one of the most referential in the country.
One of China's most valuable companies.
Annual revenue growth, USD 125 billion TTM.
Low valuation multiples versus industry.
Pricing at 2016 levels.
$BABA COORECTED ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS In my Elliott Wave analysis of BABA, I've observed a corrective pattern since its inception, with the peak occurring during the 2020 bull market. The correction seemed to have ended when BABA hit bottom in 2022. Following this, it appeared to start a new upward wave (wave 1), followed by a corrective phase (wave 2), which now seems to be complete. It's important to note that the placement of the other waves is solely for identification purposes and does not indicate any specific targets. This suggests that BABA could be gearing up for a bullish wave 3, making it quite promising for the long term.
$BABA COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS Based on my Elliot Wave analysis of NYSE:BABA , it appears that the stock has been following a corrective pattern since its inception, with the peak occurring during the 2020 bull run. Since then, it has been in wave B, currently progressing into subwave C of wave B. The trend is strongly bearish, indicating a downtrend.
I anticipate wave B to conclude around $18.90, although this is an estimation derived from Fibonacci ratios and could potentially fluctuate between $58.01 and $18.90. However, considering the length of sub wave A, the likelihood leans towards the $18.90 mark.
Why Alibaba stock is poised to reach at least 85$Investors and market analysts are closely monitoring Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) as the stock appears to be gearing up for a significant upward movement, with a target price of at least $85. Several key indicators, including the formation of a higher low on the 1-week chart, robust fundamentals, and the upcoming earnings call, suggest a promising outlook for Alibaba.
Higher Low Formation on the 1-Week Chart:
Traders and technical analysts are observing a compelling chart pattern on the 1-week timeframe, indicating the formation of a higher low. This technical signal is often associated with a potential trend reversal or continuation. The higher low suggests that buyers are stepping in at higher price levels, demonstrating increased confidence in Alibaba's stock.
Strong Fundamentals:
Alibaba's fundamentals remain robust, contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding the stock. Key factors include:
Revenue Growth: Alibaba has consistently demonstrated impressive revenue growth over the past quarters, driven by its diverse business segments, including e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital entertainment.
Profitability: The company's profitability metrics continue to strengthen, with a healthy profit margin and improving operational efficiency.
Market Dominance: As a global e-commerce giant, Alibaba maintains a dominant position in the Chinese market and has successfully expanded its reach internationally.
Upcoming Earnings Call:
Investors are eagerly awaiting Alibaba's upcoming earnings call, which is expected to be a significant catalyst for the stock. Market analysts anticipate that the company will surpass earnings expectations, citing several factors:
E-commerce Growth: The continued expansion of Alibaba's e-commerce ecosystem, especially in the rapidly growing Chinese market, is expected to drive strong revenue growth.
Cloud Computing Segment: Alibaba's cloud computing division has been a major revenue driver, and the increasing demand for digital services is likely to contribute positively to the upcoming earnings.
Innovation and Partnerships: Alibaba's commitment to innovation and strategic partnerships, including those in the fintech sector, is anticipated to have a positive impact on the company's financial performance.
High Probability of Beating Expectations:
Analyst consensus points towards a high probability of Alibaba exceeding earnings expectations. The company's proactive measures in adapting to changing market dynamics, coupled with its ability to capitalize on emerging trends, position Alibaba as a strong contender for a positive earnings surprise.
In conclusion, the convergence of a higher low formation on the 1-week chart, robust fundamentals, and the optimistic outlook for Alibaba's upcoming earnings call suggests a compelling case for the stock to move up to at least $85. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on these factors as they navigate the dynamic landscape of the stock market.
BABA AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, taking out the sell-side liquidity and into the bullish order block at 69.80, and giving us a +13.49% to the upside. From here, I expect a bearish retracement and price could continue higher following the new bullish order flow.
$BABA - its' a tough one to breakout ofNYSE:BABA Of course, it won't be easy to break out of that channel. The 50DMA and the trendline are tough resistance.
You can see that the 50DMA is tracking along the channel's upper trendline, making any breakout attempt a challenge.
My targets previous post remain unchanged.
Alibaba Hello friends
In Alibaba shares, we see a 5-wave movement.
This movement is a wave C of a correction.
This movement can be traded in case of breaking the downward trend line that has formed a channel and a pullback to it.
This breakdown and pullback can be the beginning of a correction or a 5-wave.
Be successful and profitable.
$BABA interesting entry on my Mahjong night!A few days after talking about wanting to grab some NYSE:BABA shares, I was chilling on a regular Friday night, playing Mahjong with my pals like we do every week. But this time, I was keeping an eye on NYSE:BABA as the week was coming to an end.
Around 11 pm Singapore time, I vaguely remembered NYSE:BABA taking a dip, maybe around -2%, hitting $66-$67 per share (if my memory is right). First thing that popped into my head was, "Okay, China's not doing great, looks like another bad week."
We played a few more rounds of Mahjong, and when I checked NYSE:BABA again, surprisingly, it had bounced back to $69 per share. That's a 1-2% climb from being down 2%, and it seemed like it might finish the week with a little bullish pin bar thing at the important weekly support levels.
Feeling a bit of FOMO, I jumped in at $68.5, bringing my average price for NYSE:BABA to $70 now. Then, I heard about China thinking about moving 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), and that got me even more optimistic. I thought, "Finally, China's government is doing something real to help out the stock market."
Thinking of adding more NYSE:BABA as it goes up slowly, keeping an eye on the chart. Sure, there's a risk that the downside isn't totally over, but there are signs that the worst part might be done, and we're in for a big bounce or reversal from here.
For once, I'm feeling positive about China. Not financial advice.
Is it time to buy China stocks? BABA? TME? PDD?Many Chinese stocks are quietly breaking out.
News headlines from other aspects of investing and world politics are drowning out these bullish setups.
Breakouts observed in some leading names.
The amazing Sin-Wave Pattern of BABA chartcyclical and seasonal patterns are recurring fluctuations observed in time series data like stock prices, but they differ in some key aspects:
Periodicity:
Seasonality: Occurs at a fixed and known period, usually related to the calendar year. Common examples include monthly, quarterly, or yearly fluctuations.
Cycles: Have an unfixed and unknown period. Their length can vary significantly, and the time between peaks and troughs can be irregular. The "business cycle" is a classic example, lasting several years with no set duration.
Predictability:
Seasonality: Generally more predictable due to their fixed periodicity. Once the seasonal pattern is identified, future fluctuations can be anticipated with greater accuracy.
Cycles: More difficult to predict due to their variable frequency and length. Identifying future cycles and their duration involves complex analysis and often remains uncertain.
Magnitude:
Seasonality: Fluctuations often follow a consistent range or pattern within a single year.
Cycles: Fluctuations can be highly variable in magnitude, with peaks and troughs significantly different in intensity.
Examples:
Seasonality: Ice cream sales increase in summer and decrease in winter. Tourism revenue peaks during holiday seasons and dips in off-seasons.
Cycles: The business cycle with periods of economic expansion and contraction. Supply chain disruptions causing periodic shortages and price hikes in specific sectors.
Combined effects:
Both seasonality and cycles can exist within the same data. For instance, ice cream sales might exhibit a yearly seasonality within the larger, multi-year economic cycle.
Analysis and modeling:
Different statistical techniques are used for analyzing and modeling seasonal and cyclical patterns. Seasonality can be addressed with decomposition methods, while analyzing cycles often involves advanced time series forecasting models.
Impact on decision-making:
Understanding both seasonality and cycles is crucial for businesses and investors. Companies can anticipate demand fluctuations and adjust production or inventory accordingly. Investors can use cyclical trends to inform entry and exit points in the market.
Remember, no single pattern perfectly captures market behavior. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors and a combination of analytical approaches are crucial for making informed decisions based on both seasonal and cyclical variations.
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai Signal Confidence with $200 Million BuyAlibaba's Rebound:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has witnessed a significant boost in its stock value following reports that co-founder Jack Ma and Chairman Joe Tsai have collectively invested $200 million in the company's shares. This strategic move by the visionary leaders has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike, signaling renewed confidence in the e-commerce giant.
Background:
Alibaba's US-traded shares experienced an impressive 8.6% surge in New York, marking the most substantial intraday increase since last July. The company had previously faced a challenging period, with its stock declining by 43% over the past 12 months, losing ground to formidable Chinese competitors like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and PDD Holdings Inc.
Insider Buying Signals Optimism:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's decision to buy shares during a period of decline reflects their firm belief in Alibaba's intrinsic value. This move is particularly noteworthy given Ma's recent criticism of the company's trajectory, urging internal corrections and acknowledging the success of rivals like PDD.
Tsai's Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle made a bold statement with the purchase of almost 2 million Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) shares, valued at approximately $152 million in the fourth quarter. Notably, this marks the first time Tsai's fund has acquired Alibaba shares since at least the last quarter of 2017, as indicated by regulatory filings.
Jack Ma's Return to Investing:
Jack Ma, who had been gradually selling off his Alibaba shares in recent years, made a notable comeback to the buying table by investing $50 million in the company's stock during the quarter. Ma's stake in Alibaba had previously dipped below 5%, and his decision to reinvest suggests a rekindled belief in the company's potential for resurgence.
Market Reaction and Business Overhaul:
The market's positive response to the insider buying spree reflects investor optimism and confidence in Alibaba's future prospects. Despite challenges, Alibaba is currently valued at around $175 billion.
Alibaba is currently undergoing a significant overhaul, abandoning plans to spin off its cloud business due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. export curbs on AI technology. This strategic shift in the company's structure comes as it faces fierce competition from Pinduoduo and contends with a slower-than-expected retail recovery post-pandemic.
Conclusion:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's substantial investment in Alibaba speaks volumes about their unwavering belief in the company's potential for recovery and growth. As Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) navigates a transformative period, investors are likely to closely watch the implementation of its new business strategies and the impact of these insider purchases on the company's future trajectory. The duo's confidence may serve as a beacon of hope for Alibaba, inspiring a renewed sense of trust among stakeholders and potentially signaling brighter days ahead for the e-commerce giant.
BABA - Chinese Government is using Harmonic Patterns- Today Bloomberg wrote of a huge cash to be injected in the Chinese mainland stock market - $278 B
- they must have noticed that there is a HAS and Gartey pattern on BABA W1 chart and decided to do it right now
- so... shall we?
$BABA Alibaba Parallel Down TrendNYSE:BABA Alibaba Parallel Down Trend continues, below the 50 day moving average. BABA needs to consolidate and break the down trend before it is safe to inter a long position.
BABA Sell SignalBABA bounced back toward the 50-day MA, but it was too weak to break it, signaling there is no momentum in this move. In the last several days, and today also, BABA formed a lower high and lower low, signaling a new downtrend.
Furthermore, BABA dropped out of the bear flag, signaling it is going down again. Sell, sell, sell. RSI did recover nicely and is now in the middle, while MACD is already pointing down, signaling more pain in front of the bulls.
It is very likely BABA will drop into the support box of 60-66 and will find long-term support in this area. This area has been a support since 2016, last year, and could or should act as support yet again.
There is almost no chance for bulls to recover from this situation, especially as China is in a huge economic problem, while at the same moment, the USA stock market is at its extreme and in overbought territory.
For bulls, their chance is that BABA must close above the 75.20-75.5 area today to avoid a lower low and to stay inside the bear flag and start to move up as soon as possible with huge volume.
It is almost certain I'll be under attack now, but this is a game of odds and probabilities and is not a game of being in love with a stock or any other asset. Profitable traders trade according to their own trading rules, while others trade according to their fear and greed.
Good luck to all.
