Navigating Alibaba's Challenges: Is Now the Time to Buy?
The recent performance of Alibaba Group ADR (BABA.N) has raised eyebrows among investors, as the stock is currently in a falling trend channel in the medium to long term. Despite the negative sentiments and challenges faced by the Chinese e-commerce giant, there are compelling reasons for buyers to consider the stock. We will delve into the key factors that may make Alibaba an attractive investment opportunity.
1. Technical Analysis and Potential Reversal:
The stock is currently moving within a rectangle formation, with support at $70.69 and resistance at $101. A decisive break through either of these levels could indicate a new direction for the stock. The recent 3.2% gain in December is a positive sign, and a break upwards through $80.00 could serve as a bullish signal, potentially reversing the falling trend.
2. December Gains Amidst Longest Streak of Monthly Losses:
Despite enduring its longest streak of monthly losses since 2015, Alibaba's NYSE-listed shares have managed to gain 3.2% this month. This resilience in the face of previous setbacks suggests that the stock may be finding support and could be poised for a rebound.
3. Strategic Leadership Changes:
Alibaba recently announced that its chief executive would directly oversee its domestic e-commerce arm, indicating a strategic shift in leadership. With a renewed focus on managing non-core assets, this move could pave the way for a more streamlined and efficient operation, potentially boosting investor confidence.
4. Legal Developments and Market Dynamics:
It's worth noting that Alibaba recently faced a legal setback, with rival JD.com winning a lawsuit against the company for monopolistic practices. While this may have contributed to short-term market uncertainties, it's essential to consider the broader market dynamics and the potential for Alibaba to adapt and thrive in a changing regulatory environment.
In conclusion, Alibaba's current challenges present a unique buying opportunity for investors who can see beyond short-term fluctuations. The technical indicators, December gains, strategic leadership changes, and the contrarian perspective make a compelling case for considering Alibaba as a potential addition to a diversified portfolio. As with any investment, thorough research and a long-term perspective are crucial for making informed decisions in the dynamic landscape of the stock market.
BABA trade ideas
Quality Swing Trade Set Up with AlibabaThe company is currently valued at around $190B and is currently trading below value compared to what the company has on its balance sheet (1.75M in Total Assets compared to only 630K in Total Liabilities).
Double bottom price pattern could potentially send the stock back up to the $167 price range (from a long-term perspective).
Tech Giant Alibaba Unveils New AI Video ToolAlibaba says its I2VGen-XL model can handle “visualization, sampling, training, inference, join training using images and videos, acceleration, and more.
Alibaba Cloud—subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group and one of the world's largest cloud computing companies—has unveiled its I2VGen-XL AI tool. It’s an advanced text-to-video system that's intended to compete against top-of-the-line models like the ones released by Pika Labs or Stability AI.
The company announced the release of the model’s weights today after publishing the model’s research paper last month.
I2VGen-XL is engineered using cascaded diffusion models, the paper explains, a sophisticated AI technique that ensures the generated videos are not only visually impressive but also contextually coherent and semantically accurate. It operates on a two-stage process: the base stage focuses on maintaining coherence with the input text and images, and the refinement stage enhances the details and resolution of the video, achieving up to 1280x720 pixels.
This technique may sound similar to those used to generate images with SDXL. Unlike SD 1.5 and SD 2.1 which relied on a single model, Stability AI developed two different models, a base and a refiner, which should be combined to generate the best quality images possible.
Alibaba Cloud says the model's training utilized an extensive dataset of around 35 million text-to-video pairs and a staggering 6 billion text-to-image pairs. Such a vast dataset ensures the model's versatility and accuracy across various scenarios and subjects.
A new model amidst an AI arms race
This release comes as the global tech landscape is witnessing heightened tensions and competition, particularly between the US and China. Amidst a backdrop of trade restrictions and a push for technological self-reliance, Alibaba's move is both timely and strategically significant for the country.
Alibaba's latest innovation is not an isolated development but part of a longer narrative of technological rivalry. With the US imposing restrictions on chip exports and China responding with its countermeasures, the race for AI supremacy has accelerated. This environment has spurred advancements in indigenous technologies, with both nations vying for a leading position in AI, semiconductor technology, and 5G innovation.
When contrasted with other notable advancements in the field, such as Pika Labs' model and Stable Video Diffusion, I2VGen-XL distinguishes itself through its unique approach and high semantic accuracy. A demo with several examples of using HiGen (a diffusion model) with I2VGen-XL shows a major improvement in temporal and frame consistency when compared to the use of HiGen alone.
Alibaba's I2VGen-XL model represents a significant milestone in the AI landscape because it provides an alternative to models that are either banned for Chinese users or could be restricted in the future by the US or the Chinese government.
Alibaba’s emerging tech plays
Alibaba goes beyond just e-commerce. It has been a significant player in emerging technologies for a while, consistently pushing new developments in the realms of AI, the metaverse, software, and even digital currencies.
In AI-driven animation, besides sI2VGen-XL, Alibaba's "Animate Anyone" model stands out. This tool transforms static images into dynamic animations, employing a novel framework called ReferenceNet. Integrating sophisticated diffusion models achieves temporally stable and visually consistent videos.
Alibaba Cloud also partnered with Avalanche to launch its Cloudverse platform. This technology offers businesses a seamless pathway to create and maintain their digital universes. The strategic alliance with Avalanche and Metaverse Universal Assets DAO's involvement in middleware solutions highlights Alibaba's collaborative approach and its dedication to harnessing Web3 technologies.
Top Beaten-Down Chinese Stocks to Buy Right Now
Reasons to buy
Alibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ) : Leader in the Chinese e-commerce market, strong track record of innovation and growth.
JD.com, Inc. ( NASDAQ:JD ) : Well-established and profitable company with a strong market position, benefiting from the growth of the Chinese e-commerce market
Baidu, Inc.( NASDAQ:BIDU ) : Dominant player in the Chinese search market, strong track record of innovation, expanding into new markets, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence
BZUN X, Inc. ( NASDAQ:BZUN ) : Rapidly growing company with a strong market position, benefiting from the growth of the Chinese fintech market
I would recommend allocating your funds as follows:
BABA: 40%
JD: 30%
BIDU: 20%
BZUN: 10%
This Chinese portfolio is designed to provide you with exposure to the Chinese stock market while also diversifying your risk. BABA is the largest company in the Chinese e-commerce market and has a strong track record of innovation and growth. JD is another well-established e-commerce company with a strong market position. BIDU is the leading search engine in China and is also expanding into new markets, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence. BZUN is a rapidly growing fintech company with a strong market position.
I believe that this portfolio is a good investment for the long term. The Chinese economy is growing rapidly and is expected to continue to grow in the years to come. This growth is being driven by a number of factors, including an expanding middle class, rising urbanization, and increasing consumer spending. As the Chinese economy grows, so too will the Chinese stock market.
I recommend you should consider your own individual circumstances and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
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BABA Showing Some Bullishness Out of the Buy ZoneChinese stocks have been hurting from China's deflationary economic environment, as well as the Biden administration's restrictive measures for AI chips to China. I believe these factors have caused Chinese stocks to become extremely undervalued.
BABA is currently within my buy zone and is starting to show some bullishness. The price is near the lows of the monthly Bollinger Bands, which is favorable for a long trade setup. The price is also significantly below the EMA ribbon, which is also favorable for opening a long.
Price targets:
The white trendlines are my key resistance levels on the way up, and the EMA ribbon has also been acting as resistance that has pushed BABA's price lower. I think the EMA ribbon will act as a resistance zone for BABA on the way up as well.
Back to IPOAlibaba's share price is having the worst 3 years since it went public. And 2023 has not been a good year either. The share price has lost almost 18.8% year to date.
Alibaba's share price has been falling for several reasons, including:
1. Increased competition: Alibaba is facing increased competition from other Chinese e-commerce giants such as Pinduoduo and JD.com. These companies are offering lower prices and more aggressive promotions, which is putting pressure on Alibaba's margins.
2. Regulatory scrutiny: The Chinese government has been cracking down on tech companies in recent years, and Alibaba has been one of the companies that has been targeted. The government has imposed new regulations on the company's data practices and its market power.
3. Economic slowdown: The Chinese economy is slowing down, and this is hurting Alibaba's business. Consumers are spending less money, and businesses are cutting back on their advertising budgets.
4. U.S. export controls: The U.S. government has imposed export controls on some advanced computing chips, and this is hurting Alibaba's cloud computing business. The company is unable to access the chips that it needs to develop and deploy new cloud services.
5. Alipay stake sale: Alibaba's sub-subsidiary Alipay is selling its stake in India's Zomato. This is a sign that Alibaba is losing confidence in the Indian market.
However, fundamentally Alibaba still looks attractive and it is one of the most undervalued companies I am looking into. The company is trading close to its 2014 IPO price of $68, allowing me to buy the stock for the first time. The company is not out of the woods just yet.
I am waiting for $68 with a partial entry when the market opens.