BABA Pullback.Simple inside bar breakout. Entry over green line trim at high dashed line. Either use a % stop loss or last 10m candle after breakout.
BABA trade ideas
Collect Cash Waiting To Buy China's Biggest RetailerHey guys! Today, we're looking at a Trade Idea in Alibaba, the infamous Chinese Tech company / Retailer.
Like most of our trade ideas, this post focuses on selling put options - this time, on BABA shares.
In case you're unfamiliar with options -> when you sell a put option, one of two things happens.
Either;
A.) The stock price finishes above the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you make money.
B.) The stock price finishes below the strike price of the put when the put expires, in which case you’re forced to buy the stock at the strike price.
With the trades we publish, if the stock goes up, sideways, or down a bit, you'll make money. If the stock goes down a lot, then you'll be forced to buy shares.
In other words - either make money, or buy the dip!
The trick is finding the right stock at the right time.
Right now, BABA seems like a great candidate for this strategy.
First, the company's recent share price decline seems to have flattened out considerably, which means that the market has priced the majority of the risk associated with Chinese exposure at the moment:
Secondly, the company's valuation has come in significantly, and management is buying back diluted share count, which could lead to higher EPS and an increasing stock price in the future.
Finally, the $85 level in the stock is a local support level which was recently put in earlier this year, which should add confluence to the trade idea, if shares end up getting assigned:
Net net, this idea has an 81% chance of earning max profit by expiry, which, combined with the positive price action, solid fundamentals, and recent support level, make us feel comfortable taking risk here.
What do you think?
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BABA: sell ideaOn BABA as you see on the chart we will have a continuation of the uptrend if only if we have the breakout with force the resistance line and the vwap indicator by a big green candle with a large green volume. But, in other hand we will have a reversal trend (downtrend) if we have the breakout with force the support line by a big red candle with a large red volume. Thanks!
BABA: 1.6 Million Share Block Trades and Two Gaps to MindFollowing NYSE:BABA ? With price coiling inside of a wedge on the daily, we zoom in to determine where things go in September.
Personally, I'm a little meh on NYSE:BABA breaking higher due to Chinese macro. But if we get back above this massive block trade seller from early August who laid 1.65 million shares down on the 7th, then that juicy upside gap is next...
...but if we can't clear those blocks, then we get a quick fill of that recent downside gap.
$BABA - A follow up to my previous postNYSE:BABA In my earlier post, I stated that we needed to clear $95 in order to head to $105. Well, we cleared $95 by 1 cent on Friday! Woo hoo!
Though I don't like the look of that candle, we could still 💥🚀.
Closing above $120 will complete the inverse head and shoulders pattern and could see further upside to $170.
Upside targets:
$105
$120
$170 (1 to 2 years out)
Key support area (Risk):
$87
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$BABA Elliot Wave AnalysisExpand the chart below for more detailed analysis & levels for NYSE:BABA
NFA/my opinion only... according to my work the stock is undergoing a large rounding bottom and has nearly completed a years long accumulation phase
The stock has already completed Waves 1 & 2, and is currently undergoing a minor accumulation phase before Wave 3 begins and ultimately trades $120... $120 is my year end target
Longer term, Wave 3 should continue into the first half of 2024. I expect NYSE:BABA to be a big winner through 2024
Why Alibaba the #1 investment idea in the global market.I will share an idea with Alibaba, which I consider to be the Top 1 in the global stock market.
In two years (from October 2020 to October 2022), Alibaba shares suffered a catastrophic drop: from $317 to $63. Last year, we shared skepticism about China. Why now there are reasons to think that a new long-term growing trend is emerging in the largest online retailer?
First, the reasons for the fall in stocks:
The initial phase of the decline was associated with the deflation of the bubble in Internet companies after the prospects for getting out of coronavirus restrictions became clear;
A campaign has been launched in China to strengthen state control over private Internet companies;
Alibaba suffered from state "guardianship" more than others because of the personality of founder Jack Ma, who allowed himself to criticize the policy of regulators;
Another headwind for all Chinese companies was the strengthening of geopolitical risks, which resulted in a real panic about a possible invasion of Taiwan in mid-2022. Foreign investors massively went to the exit;
Once again, Alibaba was the main victim, as its largest shareholder, the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank, was itself under attack due to accumulated debts and a bunch of unsuccessful investments in startups, which forced it to sell off its main liquid assets.
Such a rare combination of negative factors provided the perfect storm for Alibaba shares. Let's see, what grounds are there to hope that he is behind?
✔️ Alibaba has continued to grow all this time. After a 1.5-fold jump in revenue in the pandemic year 2020 to $106 billion, in 2021 it amounted to $133 billion, in 2022 due to the devaluation of the yuan in dollars. it fell to $127 billion. This year, the consensus forecast assumes revenue growth of 5%, net profit - by 25% to record levels for both indicators.
Alibaba's current P/E ratio is 11.6. The company reflects cash in the amount of $112 billion on the balance sheet, so the total cost (EV) is lower than capitalization, and EV/EBITDA = 6.7.
Amazon has P/E = 48, EV/EBITDA = 16.
The process of strengthening state control was completed without significant losses for the largest Chinese conglomerates. Now the authorities have the main task - economic growth. The problems due to the founder are also in the past. Jack Ma did not appear in public for a long time, there was talk that he had left the country. But in March, he appeared at a meeting with students in Hangzhou, and his foundation said that Jack Ma travels a lot in China. It seems that the authorities have concluded an unspoken truce with the businessman and make it possible to reduce the monopolistic influence in the Chinese economy by allocating daughters to separate public companies.
It is difficult to make your own expert opinion about geopolitical risks. As we wrote, in this matter, it is best to focus on the collective opinion of Asian (not Chinese!) investors. Fresh Goldman Sachs research shows that recently they have been investing more and more in China and do not share the pessimism of the Western media.
Softbank recently announced the completion of the exit from Alibaba. Last year, he sold almost $30 billion worth of Alibaba shares, this year the balance is $7.5 billion.
Alibaba increases payments to shareholders through buyback of shares. Over the past year, it has bought out of the market and repaid 4.5% of its shares (worth about $ 10 billion). It is planned to spend another $40 billion on buyback by March 2025.
This rarely happens - almost every factor-minus has an argument-plus, and Alibaba shares have not yet gone far from their lows!
$BABA - Looking bullishNYSE:BABA If BABA can clear $95, it could head to $105. The MCAD is about to do a bullish crossing.
$87 is a key support area.
$100 is a key resistance area.
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BABA: Buy ideaBuy idea on BABA as you see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and also the breakout with force the resistance line by a big green candle with a large green volume.Thanks!
BABA: trading range situationAs you see on the chart we are in a trading range situation. So, if we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and also the resistance line by a big green candle with a large green volume we will have a big probability to have an uptrend. In other hand, if we have the breakout with force the support line by a big red candle with a large red volume it's mean that we will have a big probability to have a downtrend.Thanks!
BABA BULLISH CONTINUATIONBABA is on a good recovery streak with, steady gain and consolidation, following a solid support line since October 22'. China's economy and development are almost recovered from the horrible decline during the multiple lockdowns and manufacturing shutdowns. The gain/consolidation we are witnessing in the last several months is having an amplitude of 10-15$ which is likely to repeat unless something dramatic happens.
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BABA to head higher?Appears to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the monthly chart. With the quarterly and 6 month chart looking bullish as well. Good momentum behind this on higher time frames.
I bought at $91 and buying again at $84.69, just above the lower monthly band.
I show you why here.
Alibaba. this chart seems to be bouncing off a support on the weekly. would continue to monitor it. Buyers seem lurking at 91 region. a break above 96 might expose higher prices.
Caveat emptor; This is only for educational purposes. not a buy or sell recommendation. Trading Financial instrument carry a huge amount of risk. Nothing is guaranteed.
BABA ROCKET! 🚀 BABA forming a durable resistance, signs of a potential bottom. Price currently is breaking out from a descending triangle, potential Head and Shoulders in formation. 40% first target at the neckline, and potentially a 100% gain if neckline breaks.
However this is the weekly timeframe, expect it to take a long time to play out.
Buy AliBaba around $88-$89. Trendline BreakoutBreak the trendline, Alibaba. The two resistance levels it will now encounter are 91.55 (recent high) and 93.27 (200 Days EMA - Daily Chart). Once it breaks, we will only be able to see 105.20.
BABA resistance = support pattern detected! 🙈BABA did struggle last time we did reach this level, so clean break of pivot level (96.06) must come before we have any chance of hitting my upside targets.
that resistance = support followed by climb back above all SMAs is nice though. keep an eye on this stock, can run hard soon.
boost and follow for more.. thanks ❤
SasanSeifi 💁♂️BABA 👉1D
Hey there! Let's take a look at what's happening on the daily chart. After some minor fluctuations between the $80 and $90 price ranges, things got exciting! The price broke through the $90 resistance level and soared all the way up to $102. Then, after a small correction and a pullback to the $90 resistance level, it's now trading around $100.
So, what can we expect next? Well, if the $90 price range holds up, we might see the price making its way up to the $108 and $115 supply zones. The possible trend is pretty clear. But, keep your eyes peeled! If the price dips below the support level, we could be in for some more corrections.
Just keep these scenarios in mind as you analyze the market. Remember, things can always change unexpectedly, so stay flexible in your trading approach.❗
Wishing you loads of success in your trading adventures, my friend!✌
❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️
Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help!
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Alibaba's Evolution: A Struggle for Restoration and Renewed...Alibaba's Evolution: A Struggle for Restoration and Renewed Confidence
Once hailed as a beacon of promise tied to China's expansive growth prospects, Alibaba finds itself navigating a complex narrative. The owner of revered e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, as well as the behemoth Alibaba Cloud, the company has weathered a transformation from Wall Street's darling to a thorny challenge for investors in recent years. A series of setbacks, including the Ant Group's IPO cancellation and faltering growth, have propelled Alibaba's stock into a downward spiral, plummeting by more than 70% from its zenith at $317 per share.
Responding to this predicament, Alibaba is orchestrating a significant corporate overhaul, fragmenting its structure into six distinct units. Despite these steps, further actions are necessary to course-correct the beleaguered ship. This article explores two vital domains Alibaba must address to regain investor confidence.
Emerging as an e-commerce powerhouse, Alibaba's growth trajectory has expanded both vertically and horizontally, encompassing sectors like logistics, fintech, entertainment, cloud computing, and more. While the diversified business model garners applause, e-commerce remains the unequivocal core, accounting for a substantial 67% of the company's revenue in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023. Notably, this segment contributed to the entirety of Alibaba's profits during that period, as other segments reported losses.
Yet, Alibaba's foundation remains predominantly anchored in Chinese e-commerce, presenting a challenge. The flagship endeavor led by Tmall and Taobao faced a 1% revenue dip over the last fiscal year. While pandemic-related lockdowns contributed, the rise of contenders like Pinduoduo and Douyin has intensified pressure. Alibaba must undertake a transformative journey to adapt before this challenge escalates.
In response, Alibaba's reorganization into six units seeks to empower each division with dedicated management, enhancing operational efficiency, market adaptability, decision-making speed, and incentive structures. This endeavor aims to resurrect the entrepreneurial spirit crucial for revitalization.
Investors must grant several quarters to assess the efficacy of these newly established teams. The e-commerce segment must rekindle growth momentum, ideally surpassing industry rates. As Alibaba realigns itself, the path forward holds intrigue as it strives to recapture its competitive edge.
Beyond operational excellence, capital allocation emerges as a pivotal arena requiring attention. Historically, Alibaba directed profits from its e-commerce pillar into high-growth domains like cloud computing and logistics. With autonomous subsidiaries, units now secure funding independently, easing e-commerce's burden.
Alibaba's surplus cash flow beckons strategic redirection to enhance e-commerce and shareholder value. This includes judicious investment in marketing and research, amplifying competitiveness. Share repurchases and dividend policies also warrant consideration, given historically low stock valuations. Fresh ventures are plausible, but discernment is crucial.
Alibaba stands poised to create shareholder value through astute capital allocation. This realm warrants vigilant investor scrutiny, given its profound impact.
Once a cornerstone of China's tech landscape, Alibaba's journey has been marred by errors and external challenges that eroded investor trust. Yet, hope gleams. Alibaba's premier domains remain potent. Restoration lies in honing these for enduring value. Through corporate restructuring, the company embarks on rejuvenation. Patience is vital, awaiting the fruits of this turnaround.
With renewed operations and strategic capital use, Alibaba's renaissance nears. The narrative could return to its former glory, focusing on nurturing its remarkable franchises.
ALIBABA first Golden Cross in 6 months. Buy signal.Alibaba (BABA) is completing today the first Golden Cross formation since January 23. This is a bullish medium-term pattern and along with the 1D RSI bullish trend on Higher Lows, it will most likely end with a Higher High on a 6 month basis.
As you see, the price recently broke above a Channel Up pattern, so we expect an aggressive rally to the Lower Highs trend-line, similar to those rises of January 2023 and June - July 2022. Our target is 116.00, even though there is potential for a direct hit within the 1 Year Resistance Zone.
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$BABA Bearish to Bottom PatternNYSE:BABA Bearish to Bottom Pattern with inverse head & shoulders pattern ready to break. The inverse head and shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern commonly observed in technical analysis of financial markets. It consists of three distinct troughs - a lower trough (the head) flanked by two higher troughs (the shoulders) on either side. This pattern suggests a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
The inverse head and shoulders pattern signifies a transition in investor sentiment, with the middle trough representing a point of extreme bearishness and the surrounding higher troughs indicating diminishing selling pressure. When the price breaks above the neckline (a level formed by connecting the highs between the shoulders), it confirms the pattern and suggests a potential upward move. This breakout is often accompanied by increased trading volume, reinforcing the likelihood of a trend reversal.
Traders and analysts consider the inverse head and shoulders as a reliable indication of a market bottom and a potential opportunity to enter long positions. It is important, however, to consider other factors and indicators alongside the pattern to make informed trading decisions.
Waiting for Alibaba to RetraceAlibaba has been displaying strong bullish momentum in recent weeks, and it is now approaching a key resistance level. As experienced traders know, price levels with significant order concentrations often act as turning points or areas of increased buying interest. In this case, the $90 level has caught our attention due to the substantial buying volumes that were witnessed in the past.
To manage risk effectively, we recommend setting a floating stop-loss just above the $90 mark. By doing so, we can protect our positions in case the price fails to hold above this level and experiences a deeper pullback. A floating stop-loss allows for flexibility, as it can be adjusted as the price moves in our favor.
