$92 is easy. Can BABA reach $98 this week?
The 50 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd have a median target of 141.97, with a high estimate of 217.33 and a low estimate of 72.60.
BABA trade ideas
Watchlist 2023-05-18 $MU $GOOS $LAZR $BABA $HD $SE AMEX:SPY broker out of the sticky range between 409.30 and 414 on extremely strong VOLD, ADD, and TICK ratios. However, showing signs of weakness or likely profit taking this morning. I think as long as we can hold over 414 early on the strength will continue. If not, looking for support at 412.80 (yesterday BO area). Keep yours ears peel for decisions on the debt ceiling talks as a stalling of talks will likely send the market down.
For further confirmation of a trend day, watch for:
USI:ADD pinned near +\-2000
USI:VOLD ratio over +/- 3
USI:TICK cumulating past 0 wicking to +/-900
NASDAQ:MU - day 2 long continuation. Waiting for some type of retest of a key level, 65.30 - 24.70. Chips are extremely strong right now and MU broke out of a 52 week range.
NYSE:GOOS - 2023 Revenue up 31.4% Provides Guidance for increased store growth. What's most important is gapping out of the yearly range from 21.00 with room to 24.77. Although the ATR Is 0.7, in a strong market, could see 2.0 of range after gapping 2.2 ATRs in the PM.
Support 21.00
Resistance 24.77
Inflection 21.80
NASDAQ:LAZR - over 6.80 break of 9/10 technical range break. No known news today but received some price upgrades a few days ago and tech stocks are strong as diamonds right now.
NYSE:SE - day 2 short continuation was wrong PD so we flipped long. However, SE was a lagger yesterday after the morning rally. Still in play for a long today if the market strength continues and SE trades above 73.50.
NYSE:HD - great entry for a continuation yesterday as we discussed. Looking for a pullback to add to swing position.
Let me know what you guys are looking at in the comments!
NYSE:BABA - looks like the strongest of the Chinese ADRS. Looking for a pullback from an Opening range break.
Whistler
M23A190619
Alibaba’s share profits wiped in the first quarterAlibaba Group Holding Limited shares (symbol ‘BABA’) didn’t perform really well in the first quarter of the year and are currently in loss of around 6% compared to the first trading day of January. The company is expected to report its earnings for the fiscal quarter ending March 2023 on Thursday 18th of May, before market open. The consensus EPS is $0,92 compared to the result for the same quarter last year of $1,45.
‘ The Chinese e-commerce giant is looking healthy with a current ratio of over 150% meaning the company is more than able to cover its short term liabilities with assets currently in possession while the total assets outweigh the total liabilities by more than 2 times. The total revenue for the trailing twelve months are higher than previous years indicating the company’s economic activities are growing making its shares an attractive addition to investors portfolios. ’ said Antreas Themistokleous, an analyst at Exness.
From the technical analysis perspective the share is approaching the end of the current triangle formation that is trading within its boundaries for the last 5 months. Even though the overall trend of recent months is bearish there is some potential for a correction to the upside in the short term given that the price manages to break above the current level of the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.
If this is the case in the coming sessions then the first point of support could be found around the $90 price area which consists of the psychological resistance of the round number and is also the dynamic area of resistance between the 50% of the Fibonacci retracement and the 50 day simple moving average.
$BABA - ER will determine break out or break downNYSE:BABA #BABA ER is 05/18 (tomorrow). If the ER is good, we can break out of the triangle and it can get to $110 - $120. Downside risk is $80. On the longer time frame, the IHS still a possibility if ER is good.
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Strategy For the next earning on May 18..! (Skin in the game)Before any action, we should answer this question:
Is BABA going to experience higher-than-expected volatility in the next 3 weeks?
If your answer is No, do not waste your time reading the rest of this article!
If your answer is Yes,
Then we should talk about the direction:(Current price for BABA Put/Call option is 3.1-3.4 USD for May 19, 2023
If you think it moves toward 105: Buy 2x Call and 1X put, strike price 85, expiration May 19.
If you think it moves toward 79: Buy 2x Put and 1X Call, strike price 85, expiration May 19.
Position size: 3% of your capital (2%+1% based on the direction you think it will move)
What could happen:
1- BABA does not move: you will lose 3%
2- BABA moves big against your prediction, you will not lose any money!
3- BABA moves toward your target, you will double up!
Statistics:
BABA's average weekly move is 11.63% (Min:4.8%, and Max: 26% in the past trading year)
BABA's average daily move was 4% (Min:1.5%, and Max: 13% in the past trading year)
Skin in the game: I have bought 20 Call options and 10 put options Strike 85, May 19, 2023
if the price remains between 75-90, I will lose money, otherwise, I will win!
Descending Triangle Earnings on 5-18 Before Market Opens.
Triangles are neutral until broken.
No recommendation.
52 Week Range
58.01
125.84
Day Range
87.06
88.73
EPS (FWD)
7.63
PE (FWD)
11.58
Div Rate (TTM)
-
Yield (TTM)
-
Short Interest
2.46%
Market Cap
$228.58B
Trading Ranges to keep in mind1. Just to lay out the possible trading ranges to exploit on weekly timeframe.
2. Probably CM has confirmed primary trend reversal if not invalidated by consolidating under $80.
3. Targets are indicated
4. Stop loss is a consolidation under range of $80
BABA: Buy ideaBuy idea on BABA after the breakout of vwap and the resistance as you see on the chart.Thanks!
BABA: Sell ideaSell idea on BABA as you see on the chart because we have the breakout of vwap and the support line.Thanks!
Is Alibaba stock a buy?Key Statistics
P/E Ratio 9.7
P/FCF Ratio 23
ROIC 7.5%
Operating Margin 11.78%
Analyst Estimates
March 2024 = $8.76 EPS (+12.35% YoY)
March 2025 = $9.85 EPS (+12.39% YoY)
March 2026 = $10.31 EPS (+4.68% YoY)
levels to trade BABA earningfor personal use
Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is owned by 1.80% institutional shareholders, 0.00% Alibaba insiders, and 98.20% retail investors. Goldman Sachs Group Inc is the largest individual Alibaba shareholder, owning 21.58M shares representing 0.10% of the company. Goldman Sachs Group Inc's Alibaba shares are currently valued at $1.80B.
BABA signaling long term entry pointViewers, since BABAs IPO, some may have missed out on the nice upward move. I got in and got out early myself. Now tho putting a long term investment view I see some good entry points based on oscillators and stochastic data from weekly chart data. In combination with simple yearly wave cycles, i see BABA is positioned in an attractive longterm buyers entry point. We've probably seen a completion in correction and entering the next Leap for a 3rd wave. There may some accumulation interest going on, early indication of buyer interest.
Trade smart. Cheers.
BABA Interesting spot hereBABA daily and hourly charts
Got my eye on this 79.5-80 support zone. In March we had a decent bounce up to 105 area off of this level. Today we tapped that 80 zone again for a small bounce. I'd like a retest of this area to open up a swing position long with a tight stop under 79. Looking for a remount and close over the daily 9EMA at 83.61 to confirm some buyers back in the stock. Otherwise, this 79.5 could be a nice flat bottom break level to take it down further.
Alibaba longAlibaba looks bullish as we expect the chart to form a double bottom pattern. We expect it to rebound from the strong resistance levels.
There is also a bullish cross-over on the MACD line.
Risk-reward ratio is 10.64.
Entree price at 81.74
Taking profit at 120.06
Stop loss at 78.05
$BABA - Looking goodIf the stock can close above $83 consecutive days, it could see $90.00 near term target. The IHS shoulder has not been broken yet. Fingers crossed for the bulls. 👀
Baba ..Rebound Looking for a bullish reversal after the correction that closed 82 gap.
Should push up to close 87 gap right away, then I expect a pullback or cool off before the last leg to 90
You can see the double bottom on the RSI
I like to keep track of the Hangseng when I trade Chinese stocks.. here's the 4 hour chart of the Hang seng
BABA AnalysisPrice playing out nicely as analyzed previously. I'm expecting price to mitigate the bullish POI at 78.85 soon before we wait for confirmation for price to make a bullish retracement.
BABA Chinese government reshuffle spooks investorsSHORT
The Alibaba (BABA) share price has struggled so far in 2022, falling by 44.7% year-to-date (YTD).
Chinese e-commerce and technology sectors are facing fresh challenges: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon index, which tracks US-listed shares in Chinese companies, shed a record 14% following announcements that Xi Jinping has extended his rule to a third term as president – and filled senior government roles with party loyalists. In the 24 hours following the announcement, Alibaba fell 18%.
The Hang Seng Index also fared dismally, dropping 1,030 points to a 13-year low, following investor concern that the new government would stifle the economy and private enterprise. With China’s zero-Covid policy now cemented in the near term, along with government support for Vladimir Putin, a bearish sentiment might continue for tech stocks as investors stick to a risk-off mode.
The strict zero-Covid controls implemented by the Chinese government have resulted in lockdowns which have disturbed supply chains and the manufacturing industry.
In an article for CNBC, Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, said: “China’s zero-Covid approach is impacting production and manufacturers are seeking alternatives to the current ‘factory of the world’.
“Drilling down to the individual commodity groups exported from China, we observe that China has been continuing to lose market share, with Vietnam amongst the countries gaining importance on the international landscape.”
In March, the BABA share price fell below $100 for the first time since 2017. It has since been unable to hold above that level. But the stock had gained value since late May after the company announced its first-quarter earnings report.
The June-quarter earnings report was more positive: Daniel Zhang, chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, said: “Following a relatively slow April and May, we saw signs of recovery across our businesses in June. We are confident in our growth opportunities in the long term given our high-quality consumer base and the resilience of our diversified business model catering to different demands of our customers.”
Toby Xu, chief financial officer of Alibaba Group, also commented: “Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 resurgence, we delivered stable revenue performance year-over-year. We have narrowed losses in key strategic businesses given ongoing improvements in operating efficiency and increasing focus on cost optimisation .
“We recently shared our plan to add Hong Kong as another primary listing venue. By becoming primary listed on both Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, we aim to further expand and diversify our investor base.”
Is the current share price at a good entry point for investors looking to make an Alibaba stock investment? Has the share price bottomed out or is there potential for it to retreat again?
Historical stock price data shows that BABA dropped by 49% in 2021, ending the year at $118.79 a share, as worries about the Chinese market and a sell-off in technology stocks in the US exerted further downward pressure.
In April last year, the Chinese government fined the company $2.8bn for what the State Administration for Market Regulation said was monopolistic behaviour
The record fine was lower than the market had anticipated and removed some of the uncertainty surrounding the potential penalty that would be imposed. However, a gain in the share price was short-lived and it continued the downward trend that started in October 2020, after hitting its all-time highest stock price of $309.92.
Alibaba announced its December quarter 2021 results on the same day that Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine (24 February 2022), leading to much market upheaval, particularly in the technology sector.
What may also have concerned investors was that its revenue figures represented its slowest quarterly growth rate since going public in 2014. Revenues totalled RMB242.58bn ($38.07bn) in the October-December period, an increase of 10% year-over-year (YoY).
SHORT $BABADeveloped a nice little zone here,
Waiting for price to break below this zone...
Looking for an entry around $91.52 for puts
ALIBABA undergoes organizational revamp: A fundamental analysis.Alibaba, one of the world's leading e-commerce and cloud computing companies, has a rich corporate history that is sure to capture the attention of many. Founded by the charismatic and unconventional Chinese entrepreneur Jack Ma, the company was able to attract investments from the likes of Yahoo and SoftBank during its early days. However, it wasn't until its initial public offering (IPO) in 2014 - which raised a staggering HKEX:22 billion - that Alibaba truly entered the public consciousness in a significant way.
Recently, Alibaba surprised investors by announcing that it is undergoing an organizational revamp. In this article, we will delve into the implications of this development and assess whether investing in the company's stock is a wise decision.
Over the past decade, Alibaba has diversified its offerings beyond e-commerce. However, the company has been struggling to generate substantial growth for the past few years, a trend that is reflected in its stock price. In fact, since its IPO, the stock has decreased by 5%.
The current situation with Alibaba indicates that all the shareholder value the company once created has been erased, even if the degree of the sell-off may be exaggerated. While it's important to acknowledge that Alibaba is a Chinese company and likely experienced the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, the fact remains that it has been struggling even as pandemic fears diminish. Consequently, the company's management is at a critical turning point.
In response to this situation, Alibaba has recently announced a significant restructuring plan that involves dividing the company into six distinct entities, each focused on one of its core divisions. According to CNBC's coverage of the story, these divisions will include cloud computing, e-commerce (Taobao Tmall), digital media, digital commerce, Cainiao logistics, and local services. Each entity will have its own Board of Directors and CEO.
The reasons behind Alibaba's decision to pursue this course of action are still subject to speculation. While some suggest that the restructuring is a response to the company's declining growth, others posit that it could be an attempt to address Alibaba's perceived monopoly status, given its size and the scrutiny it receives from the Chinese government.
After the announcement of the restructuring plan, research analyst Scott Kessler suggested that the Chinese government may have played a role in endorsing the move. The underlying rationale for this organizational overhaul is to allow each division to operate independently, almost like its own company.
This implies that the six new CEOs will have unique perspectives, enabling their respective entities to make swift decisions and compete more effectively with other cloud and internet companies. Essentially, the different segments will have the autonomy to create dedicated budgets, identify crucial initiatives, and raise funds from their own investor groups. The ultimate aim may be to spin off Alibaba and list each entity on a public exchange separately.
Investors will need to exercise patience to determine if Alibaba's restructuring plan is successful. Existing shareholders should hold on to their shares and evaluate future earnings reports, enabling them to determine if exchanging their shares in the different entities is a viable option when the time comes.
On the other hand, prospective investors may want to wait and observe future earnings reports to evaluate each division's potential. This will help investors to identify which entities are of interest to them. It may be prudent to invest in Alibaba before any potential spinoffs and separate listings, but only after careful consideration of the spinoff entities that make it onto their investment radar.
In conclusion, Alibaba's recent restructuring plan is a significant development that highlights the company's efforts to address its challenges and reposition itself for growth. While the possibility of a spinoff and separate listings of each entity is exciting, investors must exercise caution and carefully evaluate each division's potential before making any investment decisions.
Alibaba is in a decision zoneI believe BABA is in a gray zone where the market decides if it’s time to push it higher or if it will slide to the level of the end of 2022.
Below are the things I will consider.
1. Short conformations:
- Symmetrical triangle pattern (green lines)
- Declining RSI
- The money flow index keeps declining
- Possible H&S neck breakdown (blue lines)
Target - 60
2. Long confirmations:
- Price chart breaks upper trend line (and closing the end of march gap)
- SMI is going up, and MACD turns positive
- Quarterly revenue way over expectation (May 18th)
Target 1 – 100-105, Target 2 - 125
What are your thoughts?
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Every trader/investor should do their research and follow a personal plan.
BABA, 4d/-10.56%falling cycle -10.56% and reamin 4 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
