BABA on watch for cluster breakout 🚀Currently below resistance zone/100 SMA resistance, Daily close over 78.78 and rally to 88.11-95.26 should come pretty quick..
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BABA trade ideas
BABA: What happens next after this insane rally?Alibaba despite today's correction, remains massively overbought both on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 81.819, MACD = 5.940, ADX = 34.506) and on 1W (RSI = 75.158, MACD = 5.970, ADX = 33.938). As the price almost reached the 1W MA200, we expect a technical correction near the 1W MA50, which is the pattern the stock followed on its previous historic expansion in 2016-2017. We expect a similar Channel Up to dictate the trend and peak late 2025 - early 2026 (TP = 200.00).
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BABA - Great Rally - Can it overcome $140? $165?It's a great day! I hope you're all having a wonderful trading day!
Quick update on BABA - in the video I discuss the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension tool which is built right into Tradingview and how fibonacci tools are some of the ONLY forward looking projection indicators out there. Ichimoku Cloud is another (we'll save that complex beast for another day).
We've had a serious rally on BABA (and really the whole Chinese stock market in general) recently and while I think that trend can continue, we should keep seasonality in check and realize that after big rallies, there are always pullbacks awaiting. This is how the market is designed to take your money. Here's the scenario:
You see BABA trading at $70 and think it'll go lower - if you're a holder, maybe you sell. If you are looking to buy, you probably want to buy it lower.
BABA starts to rally significantly, exhibiting a 67% rally over the course of approximately 10 months. You start to get anxious because you missed such a large move.
You decide you want to buy because the last week alone has seen a significant move, but you didn't do a bunch of research to realize that BABA is about to potentially pull back, so you buy.
BABA starts a pullback. Let's assume you buy today at $110 and it pulls back to $98 - a decrease of ~11% - your hypothetical $11,000 investment is now only worth $9,800 - so you decide to be "responsible" and cut your losses to prevent further losses, when in reality, that's the best time to actually buy in.
What's my point? If you're only just now looking at BABA, you're probably feeling FOMO right now. Fear Of Missing Out. There's a reason Berkshire has loads of cash in their holdings. They're waiting for pullbacks in the markets to buy. You should, too. If you miss BABA, there will always be another opportunity. There's hundreds of new opportunities in the market every single day - you just have to do the grunt work and find it.
Alibaba Group (BABA) Share Price Rises Over 30% Since Early SeptAlibaba Group (BABA) Share Price Rises Over 30% Since Early September
As shown on the Alibaba Group (BABA) stock chart, the price surpassed $107 on the NYSE on Friday, after trading below $85 at the start of the month.
Bullish sentiment surrounding Chinese stocks is driven by the authorities' plans to stimulate the country's economy:
→ According to Benzinga, China’s Central Bank shared plans last week to lower the banks’ required reserve ratio (RRR);
→ The Central Bank also outlined further support measures for the struggling real estate market.
It appears that market participants expect these economic stimulus measures to benefit Alibaba Group (BABA).
Technical analysis of the Alibaba Group (BABA) stock chart reveals:
→ The historical high above $300 was reached in October 2020, after which bears dominated the market. Signs of bullish activity emerged between 2022 and 2024 as the stock fell to $70.
→ In 2024, the price broke through three descending trendlines (marked in red) drawn through key highs, and the price movements suggest a new upward channel is forming (marked in blue).
→ The RSI indicator is at a multi-month high, signalling strong overbought conditions, while Friday’s candle closed with a long upper wick (a sign of increased bearish activity).
Although the current bullish momentum may still have room to lift Alibaba Group (BABA) shares to the upper boundary of the blue channel, given the information above, there is a significant likelihood of a correction forming in early October.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BABA SELL +++++BABA is even more overbought on all indicators than it was at the close Thursday, if you have a short position I would add here. First target is fib .236 $100.41 second $94
ALIBABA updateBaba is approaching tp1 let's expect some pull back,then we gonna see how it react if we need to invest more, then those who didn't get a chance will get their entry when it pulls back,I know alot of investors didn't take this opportunities do to how this markets being moving for many mouths,n we still not comfortable to invest more but after a pull back will see if China will end this year higher or low but am expecting more movement to the upside.
China China China... It Comes From "ChiNAH"My plan here is very clear and labeled.
This is a strong turning point for china as the US markets are starting to roll over, this can be a great opportunity for china stocks to rocket and Biden trying to limit our ability to purchase them.
The reduction target is $70-73According to the Butterfly pattern, the Fibo perfectly converges the decline to the target of $ 70-73. The timing is not clear when we will get there, but according to the schedule of the decline of #HSI1, we should reach it by October 2023, there will be an excellent point for going to long to new heights.
Alibaba (BABA): Stagnation Phase or Momentum Boost?We are currently experiencing a phase of stagnation with Alibaba, as the stock remains in a new accumulation phase after breaking out of the previous one. The price might retest the Point-of-Control along with the trendline that was broken during the breakout, potentially providing a good momentum boost.
Despite the sideways movement, our position remains profitable. From a long-term perspective, our entry looks strong, with a 10% stop-loss from our entry point. The upside potential for Alibaba is significant, given how far the stock is from its historical highs.
The main concern with Alibaba is the jurisdiction risk, as it is a Chinese stock and subject to influences from China, which adds a layer of risk not present with American stocks. Nevertheless, as long as the price stays above $72.38, the outlook remains positive. Losing this level would be unfavorable and could indicate further downside risk.
In summary, we remain optimistic about Alibaba's potential, keeping a close watch on the key support levels to manage risk effectively.
BABA - will say BABA'YE to the bottom soon! Massive UPSIDE ↑ I'll keep this one simple.
KEY NOTES:
HISTOGRAM HIGHER LOWS - weekly
PRICE SHIFT - HIGHER LOWS weekly
Strong MAJOR BLOCK ORDER SUPPORT Bounce
Bubble up volume surge - net buy positions +++
Massive "GREEN" earning calls last March 2023 EPS beat by 13.10%.
HUGE net income on 1Q 2023: $23B at +367%
Spotted at 84.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard Capital always.
BABAan upward trend in the prices of an industry's stocks or the overall rise in broad market indices, characterized by high investor confidence
Alibaba (Elliott Wave)Hello friends
In Alibaba stock, we see the formation of a 5-wave impulse pattern, whose waves 1-4 have been completed.
The alternation between wave 2 and 4 is also observed.
So we expect the growth of the share in the majority of wave 5.
Basically, wave 5 is not as fast and sharp as wave 3 and is usually slow and sluggish, but we expect the share to grow to $88.
Consider the stop loss range of $73, because the upward trend has been broken and wave 4 has entered the range of wave 1, which invalidates our theory.
To support me, I recommend you install Trading View software on your phone and see my analysis and support me with your comments and Boost. Be successful and profitable.
BABA - Dumb Money Trap On Good News?BABA
A little bit of devil's advocate here and to be clear; my high time frame bias is that BABA is in either beginning Mark Up bull market or it is in the latter phase of accumulation.
BABA has been in a long term accumulation drifting sideways out the pitchfork over the last few years.
And we have identified the bullish bowl shape in previous ideas.
Chinese stocks such as BABA have had a big lift as positive news of government stimulus measures were reported.
But when good news arrives, what does it bring into the market??
Dumb money.
And what do market makers do to dumb money??
They shake them out / trap them.
So this isn't an obvious chart pattern, but it is worth noticing that BABA is @ 1:1 Golden Window here and so a 3 wave correction may be completing.
Remember that 3 wave upside corrections are very common in accumulations before the real uptrend.
BABA has been asleep for ages but suddenly it wakes up and all the fanboys rush in on good news.
Worth noting also that BABA is now oversold on the day time frame for the first time since 2023.
So technically this is not really an obvious 3 wave correction because it is a bowled shape and they can lead to very bullish action.
Psychologically however, this is an ideal place for a shakeout 😅.
If the top was in here then it may get back to the 0.618 @ $77.06.
This is why as I always say it is good to buy in the sideways drift.
There is nothing wrong with buying up here with higher time frame bias, but lets see how this plays out 🤔.
If it does get back there is, it will be a great dip buy opportunity...
Not advice
Alibaba Stock Spike After Stimulus and Nvidia PartnershipAlibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) saw its American depositary receipts surge by 5% in premarket trading on Tuesday following significant news of China’s central bank stimulus and a strategic partnership with Nvidia, pushing optimism for the e-commerce giant's growth prospects. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) slashed key interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system, providing a broad boost to Chinese stocks, with Alibaba at the forefront.
The whole story
Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) has positioned itself as a global leader, especially with its recent strides in AI and cloud computing. The company’s partnership with Nvidia to enhance AI capabilities for Chinese EV makers like Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, and ZEEKR highlights its ambitions to dominate the rapidly evolving autonomous driving space. This partnership is seen as particularly strategic given U.S. sanctions that limit China’s access to advanced semiconductor chips. By integrating its large language models (LLMs) with Nvidia’s Drive AGX Orin platform, Alibaba seeks to power next-generation in-car AI technologies.
In addition, Alibaba’s continued AI expansion is bolstered by its release of over 100 open-source AI models. These tools democratize access to advanced AI technologies, benefiting small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and helping them compete more effectively in the digital commerce space. Alibaba’s focus on AI not only positions it well in the global tech landscape but also diversifies its revenue streams beyond e-commerce.
Moreover, Alibaba’s strong shareholder yield is further evidenced by its aggressive stock buyback program. In a recent filing, Alibaba revealed that it had repurchased $275 million worth of stock in just one week, signaling management’s confidence in the company’s long-term value. A discounted cash flow (DCF) model indicates Alibaba is currently undervalued by nearly 40%, suggesting potential annual returns exceeding 15%, making it an attractive long-term investment.
Technical Analysis Outlook
From a technical standpoint, Alibaba’s stock is showcasing a classic bullish cup and handle pattern on the daily charts, indicating a possible continuation of the upward trend. The recent 5% surge in premarket trading further emphasizes this pattern, particularly as the handle formation has completed, setting the stage for a potential breakout.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 69, approaching the overbought region. While this could suggest a short-term cooling-off period, it also reinforces the strength of the current upward momentum. With Alibaba trading above all its major moving averages, the bullish momentum looks well-supported.
Additionally, as China’s economy receives stimulus support ahead of its National Day Holiday, investor sentiment remains positive. The People's Bank of China’s rate cuts aim to revive domestic growth, and Alibaba stands to benefit as one of China’s leading tech giants.
Conclusion:
Alibaba’s solid fundamentals, strategic partnerships, and promising technical indicators make it an attractive stock to watch. The confluence of bullish signals—strong buybacks, AI expansion, and macroeconomic tailwinds—suggests the potential for significant upside. Investors should keep an eye on the cup and handle breakout, as a move above resistance could trigger further gains, especially with the stock trading above key moving averages. With growing confidence in China’s economic stimulus measures and Alibaba’s strategic moves in the AI and EV space, the stock is well-positioned for continued growth.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $100
- RSI: 69 (approaching overbought territory)
- Cup & Handle breakout confirmation level: Above $100
Alibaba’s forward-looking strategies and market sentiment hint at a prosperous run, making it a must-watch stock in the coming days.
BABA - 1W - Breaking out from a symmetrical triangleAlibaba Group (BABA) is finally showing signs of renewed strength, bouncing off its 50-day EMA and breaking out to the upside from a symmetrical triangle.
The stock is now approaching new YTD highs. Despite the frustrations of long-term holders, optimism is on the rise.
Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management recently made Alibaba its largest holding, with 155,000 shares comprising 21% of the portfolio, alongside significant stakes in BIDU and JD, each at 12%.
Bulls are starting to take notice.
Amazing!!! 9988 On The Rise After I sold The StockAgain!!! Amazing!!!! It is as if because I was holding to some stock of Alibaba... So a bunch of Whales purposely do stupid shit to this stocks and refuse to let it rise!!!
And now that I have sold it!!! The Whales lost the interest and up up up up up it goes!!!
I wonder who are the whales with so much money willing to spend trillions and trillions of dollars on this type of stupid shit!!!!
Alibaba Accelerates AI Push with Over 100 Open-Source ModelsIn a bold move that underscores its commitment to innovation, Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) has unveiled over 100 new open-source artificial intelligence models, including a cutting-edge text-to-video generation tool. As the tech giant seeks to outpace both domestic and international rivals, this new release reflects its ambition to lead the global AI race.
AI Innovations to Revolutionize Industries
Alibaba's new models, part of its Qwen 2.5 family, boast advanced capabilities in mathematics, coding, and language comprehension. These models are designed to support industries such as automotive, gaming, and scientific research. They mark a major milestone in the company's ongoing efforts to integrate AI into multiple sectors, positioning itself as a key player in the AI ecosystem.
What sets these models apart is their open-source nature, a strategic move that allows developers, researchers, and companies to build their own generative AI applications without the need for costly training. With over 40 million downloads of previous versions, Alibaba's decision to open-source these models is expected to broaden the reach and influence of its AI offerings globally.
The launch of the text-to-video generation tool is another exciting development. This tool allows users to input a prompt and have AI create a video, similar to OpenAI's Sora. Such advancements have the potential to revolutionize content creation, marketing, and entertainment, and further cement Alibaba's standing in the AI space.
Competing with Global Titans
Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) faces stiff competition from domestic rivals like Baidu (BIDU, 9888.HK) and Huawei, as well as U.S. tech giants such as Microsoft and OpenAI. Unlike Baidu and OpenAI, which rely on a closed-source approach, Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) has adopted a hybrid model that combines both proprietary and open-source AI development. This strategy allows the company to cast a wider net and attract a more diverse user base, while maintaining control over its top-tier proprietary models.
Among its proprietary models, Qwen-Max 2.5 stands out. This model, which is not open-source, has been touted as surpassing rivals such as Meta’s Llama and OpenAI’s GPT-4 in areas like reasoning and language comprehension. This positions Alibaba to compete directly with the world's most powerful AI systems.
Driving Growth in Cloud Computing
Alibaba’s AI push is also expected to boost its cloud computing division, a sector in which the company has traditionally lagged behind global leaders like Amazon and Microsoft. However, with its new suite of AI models and tools, Alibaba Cloud is poised to attract a broader customer base, both inside and outside of China.
Eddie Wu, the CEO of Alibaba, highlighted the company's commitment to AI and cloud computing in a recent statement. "Alibaba Cloud is investing, with unprecedented intensity, in the research and development of AI technology and the building of its global infrastructure," Wu said. His leadership comes during a time of significant restructuring at Alibaba, as the company seeks to rejuvenate growth amidst rising competition and a slower Chinese economy.
Technical Outlook for NYSE:BABA Stock
The positive sentiment surrounding Alibaba’s AI advancements has already had a noticeable impact on its stock. As of today, NYSE:BABA is up 4.5% in premarket trading, showing signs of strong investor confidence.
From a technical perspective, NYSE:BABA ’s stock is forming a bullish “cup and handle” pattern on its daily chart, which is often considered a powerful reversal indicator. If the stock reaches the pivot point set at the resistance zone, this could further accentuate the pattern. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently at 57, the stock appears primed for a potential breakout.
The convergence of strong technical indicators, such as the cup and handle pattern, and positive fundamentals—namely the release of Alibaba’s AI models and tools—suggest that NYSE:BABA could be poised for significant gains in the near future.
Final Thoughts
Alibaba's strategic investments in AI and cloud computing are laying the groundwork for long-term growth. By embracing open-source AI development and introducing cutting-edge tools like text-to-video generation, the company is positioning itself to become a global leader in the AI space. For investors, Alibaba’s stock presents a compelling opportunity, especially given its recent technical setup and the promising growth prospects of its AI-driven initiatives.
As the competition in AI continues to heat up, Alibaba (NYSE: NYSE:BABA ) is proving that it is not just keeping pace—it’s setting the standard for what’s possible in the next generation of technology.
Alibaba: Cheap PricesAlibaba continues to position itself as a dominant force in e-commerce, cloud computing, and international growth. With new developments and expanding global influence, the company offers significant upside potential for investors & business owners and consumers. NYSE:BABA
[Financial Performance:
Revenue Growth: Alibaba reported a 5.9% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching ¥950.25 billion for the 12 months ending June 2024. This growth is driven by robust performance across its core e-commerce platforms and rapid cloud computing expansion
Cash Flow: Alibaba has demonstrated a solid cash flow of $11.04 per share, with a price-to-cash-flow ratio of 7.68, reinforcing its ability to maintain liquidity and pursue investments
Cloud Computing and E-commerce:
Cloud Business Expansion: Alibaba Cloud continues to expand rapidly, now accounting for a significant share of revenue. It remains a strong leader in China, with international expansion efforts helping it challenge other global cloud providers
International Growth: The company is gaining traction outside of China, leveraging platforms like Lazada in Southeast Asia, a key driver of international growth
Technical and Market Analysis:
Stock Performance: As of September 12, 2024, BABA trades at $85.39, representing a 10.4% gain year-to-date. Despite recent fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about its future performance
Price Target: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $107.61, suggesting a strong upside potential of over 20%. BABA's current valuation at a P/E ratio of 18.93 remains attractive, signalling room for growth
Strategic Outlook:
AI Investments: Alibaba's investments in AI are expected to enhance its cloud offerings and improve the efficiency of its e-commerce platforms, making it a leader in innovation
Long-Term Potential: Despite regulatory challenges and geopolitical risks, Alibaba's strong financial position and focus on international markets make it a compelling investment for those seeking long-term value.
ATH? Lol.
$84.70 NYSE:BABA
Alabama updateA lot of people's are scared talking long trades when they are still low,if you know what you are doing n manage to see things coming from distance n trusting yourselfs ,each move that you make is money,I can see it's been struggling to grow but what do you do as a trader you buy low n sell high,from my entry it's already shift,many people's dont realised that investing n talking long trades is easiest things n makes money,people's are just in hurry to make money,that's why many fail n call everything as a scam,n advice when you wanna make a good investment,you buy when companies are low n looks like struggling to grow that's when you buy,you need to understand that company might facing some challenges during that time but will get read of that negativity,is not easy to think like a real man n takes things easy,let your brain work for you soo that you can n see things from distance.not everything as a trader n investor that you need to be taught by others,some need to develop natural as you goo,only few people's will tells you this.
Alibaba - The Bleeding Is OverNYSE:BABA dropped roughly -75% after it broke the long term trendline towards the downside back in 2021 before it found some strong support at a previous horizontal support level.
Click chart above to see detailed analysis 👆🏻
Bulls are still not giving up on Alibaba and after the strong retest and reversal of the all time low back in 2022, Alibaba managed to consolidate and stop the agressive downtrend. If Alibaba actually manages to break back above the confluence of resistance, this stock is actually back to a bullish market and we could see the beginning of a new uptrend and maybe even new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $81
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Alibaba's antitrust scrutiny concludes with a positive outcomeChina's State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) has officially concluded its antitrust investigation into Alibaba, indicating satisfactory compliance by the e-commerce giant with anti-monopoly laws. This investigation, which began in 2021, resulted in a substantial fine of 18.23 billion CNY (approximately 2.6 billion USD) due to practices restricting sellers from exclusively choosing Alibaba's platform over competitors. SAMR noted that Alibaba's remediation efforts have produced "good results," addressing issues related to its previous "pick one" policy, which unfairly bolstered its market dominance.
Technical analysis of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADR (NYSE: BABA)
A review of Alibaba's stock performance offers insights into potential trading opportunities based on its current technical landscape:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current Trend : the stock is exhibiting an upward trend, having recently breached the resistance level at 85.80 USD, which now serves as support
Short-term Target : the immediate upside target is at 90.70 USD, contingent upon breaking past the current resistance
Medium-term Target : If the momentum continues past the short-term resistance, the next target is at 96.50 USD
Key Support : established at 79.20 USD
Downside Scenario : a reversal below the key support level could trigger a potential decline to 71.50 USD, signalling a bearish shift
Market outlook
Following the conclusion of the antitrust investigation and subsequent compliance measures, Alibaba's stock is showing signs of resilience and potential growth. Investors and traders might find this development encouraging as it not only alleviates regulatory uncertainties but also highlights Alibaba's adaptability to stringent market regulations. As Alibaba continues to navigate the competitive e-commerce landscape with renewed regulatory compliance, its stock may witness further appreciation, making it a compelling watch for potential upward movements.
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Technical Analysis on Alibaba (BABA)Alibaba ( BABA ) has been in a long-term downtrend that began in October 2020. In the medium term, however, the price has entered a phase of compression, suggesting a possible pause or reversal of the trend.
Analyzing the volumes using the Volume Profile, we can see that the price is currently caught between two key Points of Control (POC):
POC 1: A significant volume level that considers the entire historical data of the stock, located around the $80 area.
POC 2: A medium-term POC that reflects the current phase of compression.
Bullish Scenario:
To consider a potential bullish scenario, it will be necessary to wait for the price to reach POC 1, located around the $80 area, followed by a breakout and a possible retest of the descending trendline. The first significant resistance and target for this bullish scenario is around the $120 area.
Bearish Scenario:
For a continuation of the downtrend, it is important to monitor the price in relation to the two POCs. If the price drops below both levels and breaks the ascending line, with a possible retest, we could see an extension of the downward movement.
$BABA - Possible upside to the next target areaNYSE:BABA It looks like a successful neckline checkback. There’s a chance it could head toward the second and third targets soon.
The second target area of $88 to $90 is a strong resistance and might be challenging to break.
I’m guessing that NASDAQ:PDD can no longer engage in cutthroat price wars or endless promotions and might be losing market share to $BABA.
With China starting to ease its grip on tech companies, Ant Group might finally go public sometime in the future.
See Aug 14 post for price targets.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
