Ebay about to pop the cloudBottom bounce move triggered my alert and is setting up to pop the cloud.
by iCantw84it
09.9.22
EBAYD trade ideas
eBay Inc. bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the US company eBay Inc. (EBAY). eBay Inc. is an American multinational e-commerce company, that facilitates consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer sales through its website. eBay is a multibillion-dollar business with operations in about 32 countries, as of 2019. The company manages the eBay website, an online auction and shopping website in which people and businesses buy and sell a wide variety of goods and services worldwide. The website is free to use for buyers, but sellers are charged fees for listing items after a limited number of free listings, and an additional or separate fee when those items are sold. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 18/08/2022, if the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 8 days towards 46.70 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 50.15 USD if you decide to enter this position.
Unfortunately for shareholders, while the eBay Inc. share price is up 42% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. eBay's earnings per share are down 19% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earning in the last twelve months.
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EBAY:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + NEXT TARGET | MUST READ Last month, the online marketplace eBay acquired a specialty NFT marketplace called KnownOrigin. The press release stated that KnownOrigin is the "leading" NFT marketplace. As a cash-rich company, eBay was well positioned to finance this acquisition.
However, with limited growth opportunities, the company must be careful not to lose focus on shareholder returns. And the purchase of KnownOrigin is likely a step in the wrong direction.
There are three basic phases in the life cycle of a public company: the need for capital, self-financing, and returning capital to shareholders. In the first phase, loss-making companies receive funding from banks and shareholders to build the business in hopes of achieving scale. In the second phase, companies have achieved enough scale to generate positive cash flow, but they continue to invest all available resources to grow the business. In the third phase, growth opportunities are limited, so cash flow must be used to reward shareholders.
These phases exist at different levels, and their borders do not have clear lines. For example, a company can return some capital to shareholders while still investing in growth. But the main point is that investors need to know what phase of the life cycle the company is in order to evaluate opportunities. Stocks in each phase can be good investments if management uses cash wisely.
As for eBay, it is in phase three because growth opportunities are limited. Consider that in the fourth quarter of 2017, the company generated $2.7 billion in revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2021, it generated only $2.6 billion. In short, quarterly revenue is down almost 4 percent over that time period.
However, eBay's earnings per share rose 62% during that time as the company's management bought back billions of dollars worth of its own stock.
Even though eBay is no longer growing, it is still a cash-generating machine. As a marketplace, the company doesn't keep inventory, which keeps costs low. It simply connects buyers and sellers and charges a fee. That's why the company's free cash flow (FCF) margin was 25% in 2021 - few businesses have higher margins.
Through buybacks, shares are withdrawn from circulation and the remaining shares become more valuable - thus rewarding eBay shareholders. The company also pays a fast-growing dividend - up 58% over the past five years - which helps boost overall returns. This is a great use of cash by eBay management.
As of Q1 of 2022, eBay has $4.7 billion left in its stock repurchase plan. Given that its current market capitalization is only $24 billion, this plan is significant. But the company has enough resources to execute it. The company has more than $5 billion in cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet, a quarterly FCF of more than $500 million, and $5.3 billion in long-term investments in other e-commerce and financial technology companies.
We hope you anticipate eBay's potential to return capital to shareholders in the coming years. It could be a path to earnings that exceed the market. That assumes, however, that management won't be too distracted.
By acquiring KnownOrigin, eBay may be distracted from its goal. Terms of the deal have not been disclosed, but it is likely that the company paid a price that was well within its means. However, even if it is acceptable, the NFT market space is hardly a path to growth. That's why many people don't like this acquisition. What's more, according to DappRadar, KnownOrigin ranks only 41st among NFT marketplaces by volume - at least in the last 30 days.
We don't have time to delve into the rabbit hole of NFT. But suffice it to say that NFTs can be more than just a collector's item. They can be used for record-keeping, live event ticketing, reservations, and more. But it doesn't sound like eBay is interested in this potentially innovative side of the NFT market.
The company is interested in NFT collectibles and has been experimenting in that direction since May 2021. But according to NonFungible, NFT sales (in dollars) have dropped 90% over the past year. The number of unique customers is also down 42%.
Management's desire to stay relevant is understandable. But if eBay doesn't find real growth opportunities, it should focus on shareholder returns. Given current trends, NFT collectibles will not be what management had hoped for. And so jumping into this space could distract management from making the best use of its cash at the moment.
eBay | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ !eBay was one of the main beneficiaries at the beginning of the pandemic. People turned to the e-commerce and auction site for items they needed and wanted to buy, avoiding in-person purchases.
Now the trend is shifting in eBay's favor as the economy around the world recovers. Against this backdrop, the company plans to report Q4 earnings tomorrow. While long-term investors don't usually buy and sell stocks based on short-term events, some employ earnings reports as markers to determine whether to add to their holdings or as a clue to possible bargain opportunities. With that in mind, let's see if investors should buy this retailer's stock before the report comes out.
eBay does not own or sell merchandise on its platform. Instead, the company creates and operates a platform that connects buyers and sellers. To generate revenue, eBay charges a different fee for each transaction on the platform.
Perhaps buyers and sellers are equally important to eBay's success. Buyers would stop visiting the site if there were no attractive items to buy. Conversely, sellers would stop listing items if there weren't many people willing to buy them.
The COVID pandemic brought millions of new buyers to eBay. From the Q2 of 2020 to Q1 of 2021, the total number of active eBay buyers improved from 161 million to 166 million. However, eBay is now reducing the number of active buyers as the economy reopens and buyers have alternatives again.
In addition, management has implemented a new strategy of decreased marketing and promotions aimed at lower-cost shoppers. These two forces working together caused the number of active buyers to drop from a peak of 166 million to 154 million at the end of Q3.
The decline in the number of shoppers may be one of the main reasons why gross merchandise value (total sales value) fell more than 12% year over year to $19.4 billion. This figure is very important because eBay earns revenue by taking a percentage of this value as a commission. Nevertheless, despite the drop in gross merchandise value, eBay has increased its revenue year after year.
How has it been able to achieve this? By increasing the percentage it charges per transaction. eBay's collection rate per transaction increased from 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2020 to 12.1 percent in the Q3 of 2021.
One might assume that sellers are not thrilled with the fee increase. Yet the same cannot be said for the number of sellers on the eBay platform, which has remained unchanged at 19 million over the past year.
Perhaps sellers are happy that eBay is offering more services for higher fees. In recent quarters, eBay has been improving its services to encourage more transactions. One of the main friction points on the eBay platform is trust between buyers and sellers, and this is where management has focused its efforts to increase investment.
In the latest of these initiatives, eBay announced on Jan. 25 that it will offer an authentication service for trading cards over $750 sold on eBay. Consumers can now shop with peace of mind knowing that eBay will authenticate these cards to make sure they are not counterfeit and come as advertised.
Trading cards are an important category on eBay, with a gross merchandise value of $2 billion in the first half of 2021. Authentication comes in addition to pricey handbags, sneakers, and watches.
eBay stock is trading at a price to free cash flow ratio of 15.7 and a projected price to earnings ratio of 13.2. These prices are roughly in line with the average sales level of the past five years. In the near term, the company may continue to be challenged by the changing of the stay-at-home trend.
In the long term, however, an increasing share of purchases is moving online. In addition, eBay gets a larger share of each transaction and reinvests some of its profits, strengthening its services. eBay may not be an explosive growth stock, but it offers investors good value at the current price. The stock is probably worth buying before or after an upcoming earnings report, especially if you plan to buy and hold it long enough to benefit from the company's growth over time.
A great SHORT of Ebay in a Bearish marketClassic (W) in downtrend & long term (M) in down trend.
waited for a Bounce (correction) up to the
last Lower High of the (W) took the SHRT at
60.10
My risk was right above the inverted hammer
& down she goes 7 weeks or seven red candles
sticks.
I closed my Short today, while price is coming into a strong DZ
from the monthly chart
I fought Greed to keep the SHRT open, & test the DZ strength
of buyers. But my Target objectives were met.
Am focusing on letting winners run.
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Watching eBAYeBAY also looks good here.
eBAY has been in a falling channel since october and has finally been able to break the upper line. It is flirting the 50 sma and seems to be holding it. Will need to hold this level to contine bullish momentum.
a double bottom has also formed at the end of the channel.
A bit of risk here.
Volume is still lacking so it would need to pick up to really send the price up. the 200 sma is a major resistance as of now.
Pt are: 60,64,67.
DYOR,
Is eBay’s Long Slide Ending?EBay, along with many other e-commerce names, has skidded lower since the middle of last quarter. But now it’s showing signs of a reversal.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline running along the highs of November and January. Prices are now trying to push through it.
Second, notice how EBAY held $50 in February and again this month. Not only is this a “nice, round number.” It’s also near the end-of-year price for 2020, which was followed by a 60 percent rally last year.
MACD has also been working higher since late January, which is potentially bullish divergence.
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EBAY Descending Channel Price has been in a descending channel for the last several months resulting in a 30% drop from its October highs. RSI has been consistently dismal. failing to pass even 50 so far this year, further confirming a downtrend. The price is currently facing resistance at the upper end of the channel and will likely reject this level and continue downwards. Place stops at $58 (if your stop is actually hit, price may be breaking out and you could look to enter long on a kickback) and take profits at $50 (although there might be more room for drop).
EBAY SHORT TERM LONGWe just finished full Elliot wave with an ABC correction, we bounced off of a strong demand zone, and we should see a retracement to a 50% fib zone.
RSI: RSI touched 30 zone and is heading to cross a signal line, that indicates we are heading for a bullish momentum.
Entry: 54
Target: 65
Invalidation: 49
EBAY | GuidanceJournal Entry
Bias: Positive.
Sentiment: Optimistic.
Emoji (emotion): Experimental 👨🔬
Null Hypothesis: Buy.
Alternative Hypothesis: Sell.
Signals: %B oversold, Bollinger Bands oversold.
Position: Short term day trade.
Notes: I'm anticipating an earnings surprise this evening A.M.C.: www.estimize.com
Other: ...
Tutorial: (Q/A) What exactly is the box labeled tolerance? The box labeled tolerance is a defined range of value & time that qualifies the right to exit the trade after profit is made; as long as the security is inside the box and above the trade's entry one could say the profit is within tolerance, likewise if the security is outside the box either because of value or time one could say the profit is not within tolerance. It's a way to add parameters to the future outcome (as a means to grade the journal entry) while simultaneously providing leniency in the ability to achieve success with said journal entry.
Disclaimer: My journal entry is not a complete prospectus, please consider it accordingly.
Social: I'm happy to hear from my readers/audience and I encourage constructive feedback; although I'm busy I will give my best effort to reply.
About the Author: I strive to become one of Tradingview's pinescript Wizards and Top Authors, as well as build a reputable reputation & following. I'm not a Wall Street retailer I don't have products or services for sale, although I am a financial scientist and my source of income is my trading; that is to say anything offered to the community is apart of my scientific journal or goodwill to mankind (you're very welcome).
About the Security: "eBay, Inc. operates as a commerce company. The company platforms include online marketplace and its localized counterparts, including off-platform businesses in South Korea, Japan, and Turkey, as well as eBay’s suite of mobile apps. The company technologies and services are designed to give buyers choice and a breadth of relevant inventory and to enable sellers worldwide to organize and offer their inventory for sale, virtually anytime and anywhere. The company was founded by Pierre M. Omidyar in September 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA."
Barron's Company Overview: www.barrons.com
EBAY W1 Hello traders this is my analysis about EBAY with Classic Elliot and Harmonic Pattern I expect a small uptrend as wave -b- from zigzag and then a downtrend with 5 wave as wave -c- from zigzag from major wave 4 and then a 5 wave uptrend as major wave 5 and also I predict a Bat harmonic pattern too !
Earnings watch 2/23 post-marketEarnings watch 2/23 post-market:
EBAY
FUBO
SKLZ
HTZ
CLOV
LMND
MGNI
BKNG
FLGT
AMED
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
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Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
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