Ford Trading in a channel.potterboxfollow the channel and trade accordingly. Use the box as buying and selling opportunity. Have fun
F trade ideas
Ford (F): Eyeing Earnings for Potential Resistance FlipFord is set to release its earnings report in a few hours, and analysts generally anticipate that results will meet or slightly exceed consensus expectations. Currently, Ford is trading around a significant resistance level, and a breakout above this level could mark an important shift, opening the door for further gains. Our outlook remains bullish, with expectations that Ford will fill the large gap visible on the chart in the coming months.
Recent analyst targets align with our view, with ratings from Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley averaging around $13 for Ford stock. This target range corresponds well with our technical analysis, reinforcing our approach to Ford.
However, we’re holding off on any immediate action until after the earnings report to avoid an unpredictable reaction. We’ll be monitoring the market’s response closely, avoiding impulsive moves, as the true direction often becomes clearer after the initial post-earnings volatility.
Until then, patience remains crucial—trade the plan, stay disciplined, and seize the opportunity when it aligns with our setup.
Ford Earnings Idea Ford is inside on the 3 month time frame. On the monthly time frame we can go 2UP once we clear above $11.31
Looking to go 2 UP on the weekly time frame when we clear $11.20
On the daily we ended with a e candle we took out the highs and lows from thur
On the 4 hour we are inside as well
TAKING PUTS OF THE WEEKLY BELOW $10.86 TAKING $11.00 11/1
TAKING CALLS BASE OFF THE 4 HOUR TIME FRAME TAKING CALLS ABOVE $11.12 TAKING $11 CALLS 11/1
Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) - November 2024 StockOverview
Ford Motor Company, headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan, is a global automotive and mobility company known for its Ford+ plan, which focuses on combining its strengths in traditional vehicles with new capabilities in electric vehicles (EVs) and digital customer experiences. Ford operates through three main segments:
Ford Blue: Developing iconic gas-powered and hybrid vehicles.
Ford Model e: Focusing on innovative EVs and embedded software for enhanced digital experiences.
Ford Pro: Serving commercial customers with vehicles and services tailored to their needs.
Ford employs approximately 175,000 people worldwide and also offers financial services through Ford Motor Credit Company.
Recent Developments
Stock Performance:
Ford's stock recently traded at $10.22, shedding 0.68% in a recent session, underperforming some of its competitors, such as Tesla.
Trading volume was lower than the 50-day average, suggesting reduced investor activity or interest at this price level.
Dividend Update:
Ford announced a $0.15 dividend per share to be paid on December 2, offering a 7.6% yield, which is considered attractive for income-focused investors.
The projected earnings growth and a conservative payout ratio of around 37% suggest the sustainability of this dividend.
Q3 2024 Financial Results:
Ford reported $46.196 billion in revenue, marking an increase from the previous year's $43.801 billion.
Net income, however, declined to $892 million from $1.199 billion in the same quarter last year, highlighting some profitability challenges.
Key elements of the Ford+ strategy were discussed during the Q3 earnings call, emphasizing a focus on growth in EV and connected vehicle services.
Strategic Initiatives:
Ford+ Plan: Continues to drive the company's transformation towards sustainable growth and value creation through innovation in EVs, cost improvements, and expansion in the Ford Pro segment.
Cost Optimization: Ford is actively working on cost improvements and restructuring efforts to boost profitability.
Manager Incentives: Ford is linking manager bonuses to performance metrics, reflecting a push for accountability and strategic alignment within the company.
SWOT Analysis Highlights:
Strengths: Strong legacy in automotive manufacturing, established brand value, and a growing EV presence.
Weaknesses: Declining profitability, competition from EV-focused companies like Tesla.
Opportunities: Expansion in EV offerings, digital transformation, and cost improvements.
Threats: Intense competition in the EV market, potential macroeconomic challenges affecting demand.
Outlook
Ford’s future outlook appears to be a mix of cautious optimism and strategic challenges:
Bullish Factors:
A sustainable dividend policy, offering a high yield.
The Ford+ plan positions the company for growth in the EV and digital service market segments.
Revenue growth in recent quarters indicates potential resilience in core business areas.
Bearish Factors:
Declining net income in recent quarters points to profitability challenges.
Underperformance compared to peers in the stock market raises concerns about investor sentiment.
High competition in the EV market may pressure Ford's ability to capture significant market share.
Conclusion
On balance, Ford Motor Company presents a stable dividend-paying stock with strategic initiatives aimed at long-term transformation through its Ford+ strategy. While profitability issues and competition in the EV space are notable risks, Ford’s efforts in cost management and EV expansion offer some upside potential.
FORDit makes correction ABC it is making wave B in elliot triangle now in wave E
will be complete the enter with penetration green traingle to targets
T1 12.13$
T2 12.60$
T3 13.40$
T4 14$
Possible BreakoutLooking at Ford closely. Earnings could push this higher and breakout. At this price, I am bullish for the long-term hold.
Ford also has a Gap to Fill?Observations on the Wave Count:
Primary Impulse Waves:
The count of 1-5 for an impulse seems to be accurate. You have a clearly labeled 5-wave structure moving upwards. This is likely a larger degree move, possibly at the "Primary" or "Cycle" level.
Wave 5 appears to have extended further compared to the prior impulse waves, which is common. Elliott Wave Theory suggests that either Wave 3 or Wave 5 can extend, and this seems to show that Wave 5 is the extended one.
Corrective Wave (A-B-C):
After the 5th wave, there is what looks like an A-B-C corrective structure. It's possible that this is a Zig-Zag correction based on the sharp drop after Wave 5 and the bounce that follows.
This seems to be followed by a potential expanded or running flat, where wave C fails to exceed the end of Wave A.
Recent Wave Count:
Your latest count appears to be unfolding into a smaller degree (minute or micro) corrective structure, likely a W-X-Y or some form of complex correction. The zigzag shown in the most recent wave count (image 3) suggests you're nearing the end of a corrective phase.
Wave 4 seems to have formed a triangle or complex correction, a common occurrence for 4th waves, which typically form either triangles or complex structures.
You seem to be working towards completing a fifth wave of a larger degree correction or starting a new impulse down.
Feedback on the Current Count:
Wave 4 Triangle or Flat:
If this is a triangle in the 4th wave, you're likely correct that the next move could be the start of a larger degree wave down (Wave 5) or an extension. Triangles generally precede the final move in the current direction.
If the count you've labeled shows a flat correction, make sure Wave C is equal to or longer than Wave A to confirm this pattern, especially if it's an expanded flat.
Price Levels & Key Resistance Zones:
The key resistance level at $12.05-$12.15 is important to watch for in confirming the start of a new trend, especially if the price breaks above or gets rejected strongly.
The gap shown on the chart may also influence the price action as gaps tend to act as strong support or resistance, and it's likely that the price will revisit this zone soon.
Divergences:
The oscillators at the bottom seem to show that momentum is waning. Divergences between price action and oscillators (like MACD or RSI) can help confirm the completion of wave structures, especially if the corrective structure is nearing an end.
Summery generated by my custom Elliot Wave GPT.
It seems we are seeing a rotation into domestic value with a eye towards Heavy industry?
Large Daily FVG between ~12-13.6Good chance this will get filled considering how large it is, and considering that most daily fair value gaps on Ford have been filled in recent history.
A long play into $12.5-13 seems reasonable here.
Not trading this one myself, just noticing it and saving the idea to see how it plays out, I primarily trade spot, not options.
Example of prior gaps getting filled on the daily below:
$F probability and pattern This then that
✅clear targets
✅great multi expiration play
✅tight stop loss
✅built in confirmation
(The entry is built in as retest
Probably Pattern:
Weekly candle dip below $10.25
Then, weekly close above $10.50
8 of 9 times over 30 years reaches
$13.50+ within a few months
9 of 9 times it reaches $12.50 plus
Ford Motor Could Be Skidding LowerFord Motor fell sharply over the summer, and now traders may think it will keep skidding lower.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bearish gap on July 25 after earnings and revenue missed estimates. That potentially reflects concerns about its growth and profitability.
Next, F's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA the following month. That may suggest its longer-term trend has turned bearish.
Third is the pair of monthly highs around $11.28 in August and September. The resulting double top, below the pre-earnings lows, may suggest new resistance has developed below old support.
Next, the series of lower highs in the last three weeks has created a potential bearish descending triangle for the automaker.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA and prices are below the 50-day SMA. Those patterns may reflect bearishness in the short and intermediate terms.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Ford (F): Waiting for the right moment after recent bounceAfter being stopped out at break-even with profits already taken on NYSE:F , we are now observing the chart again. We're pleased that we didn't buy any shares as the anticipated bounce did not materialize. However, Ford did bounce almost exactly at point X, which is where wave 2 should not have dropped below—it briefly wicked under before pumping back up. This is something we can respect, as we haven't been stuck below the designated level for an extended time.
From a technical perspective, the plan is clear, but Ford is highly impacted by the current political climate, as car companies are in the spotlight right now. Despite this, we are planning for a push upwards after the recent dip. Ideally, we should not revisit the $9.64 level or, even better, avoid the wave (ii) level. Multiple levels need to be flipped for us to be confident that there's enough strength for future success. We've marked the "Ideal Entry Point" with a green dot, and it should be clear what we want to see.
For now, we're standing on the sidelines, letting it develop and play out. If our scenario unfolds as anticipated, we can capitalize on it.
Plan the trade and trade the plan.
Long F (unless you think a recession is coming)Just a couple of weeks ago I called for a 20% fall in Ford that happened a LOT faster than I expected. Now, I think there is a compelling case to be made to go long.
Technically, it is right at support (circled in white) as I write this. That is a low that hasn't been eclipsed since the COVID crash. It's also VERY oversold. In fact, the last 4 times it's been this oversold (going back to 2011), 3 of the 4 times it has closed at least 18% higher within 3 months. The other time was the COVID crash and it was higher 6 months later that time.
From a more fundamental perspective, the impending rate cut(s) will make cars more affordable along with lowering mortgage rates and opening the possibility of refinancing and cost savings there (though I think it will take more than one cut to get that effect). The bad news from their last earnings report was already baked in before this recent market collapse as well. Finally, the dividend is over 6% right now. So I'm being paid a higher rate than bonds to sit and wait for the stock to come back.
Could we go into recession? Sure, but I don't think that's where we are headed and overall market action today leads me to believe the big players don't think that either. The Fed has lots of powder to fight that right now. Could F lower its dividend? Yep. But until I see that happen I'm not betting on that either.
Trump tariffs? Those actually do scare me, but I suspect that's mostly talk that appeals to his base. If Harris gets elected, I think protecting the auto industry and its workers will be a very high priortiy, so I don't see immense political risk either.
So that's my case for long F right now. I'm making this trade and will keep it updated as things happen.
F - Ford: a Buy Now After Declining 23% in a Month? Yes, yes !
Price-To-Earnings ratio (10x) is below the US market (17x)
Earnings are forecast to grow 16% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Ford Pro, the company's commercial vehicle division, showed strength with a 15.1% operating margin, driven by high demand for Super Duty trucks and Transit vans. Plans to increase production capacity by 100,000 units by 2026 further support future growth. Additionally, Ford’s focus on software technology and services positions it well in the evolving automotive landscape. This dip presents a potential buying opportunity as Ford continues to innovate and expand.
Looking Higher Through 14.85 Against 9.63Ford should begin working higher through 14.85 against the 9.63 low following the likely completion of a flat pattern in wave (b) of {c}.
Wave c of (b) of {c} is either complete or soon to be complete and wave (c) of {c} should begin developing in an impulsive manner (five waves) higher through at least 14.85. Any downside should remain corrective against 9.63.
Ford Is Trying To Regain MomentumNYSE:F – After breaching 2020 levels can NYSE:F finally make a push higher? Seeing lots of bullish positioning at the 14 and 15 strikes. The last 5 days have made higher lows so bullish structure is trying to form but the 10 and 8.5 strike picked up a significant amount of put volume. A breakthrough the upper imbalance around 10.5 would be needed to confirm my long bias. Premiums would need to be mispriced for me to enter any longs.
Looking to pull a nice swing trade on Ford (F)On a daily TimeFrame looking at Ford (F), it's a pretty clear message that this should be a relatively straightforward Swing. I entered at $10.07 (I wanted lower but didn't have confirmation), and am looking to sell at about $1.25 which is about the $11.32 price area. This isn't trading advice in any shape or form. Just a somewhat basic and clear strategy.
Keep it in your watchlistPrice just landed on a strong support area. I'll wait for few more days to make a move. Also is a good idea to sell puts here. But I rather buy the stock in a week or two. Let's see how the market reacts.
Ford: Quality Woes and EV Struggles Send Shares PlungingFord Motor Company is currently navigating a challenging operational landscape marked by significant headwinds. The company's financial performance has been notably impacted by a confluence of factors, with quality issues and the electrification transition posing the most substantial challenges.
A surge in warranty costs, primarily related to older vehicle models, has eroded profitability. Concurrently, the Model E division, responsible for Ford's electric vehicle initiatives, has incurred substantial losses. The competitive intensity within the EV market, coupled with evolving consumer preferences, has exacerbated these challenges. While the Ford Pro segment, focused on commercial vehicles, exhibits growth potential, its current contribution is insufficient to offset the negative impact of the other divisions.
To restore financial health and regain investor confidence, Ford must implement a comprehensive strategic overhaul. This necessitates a concerted effort to enhance quality control, accelerate EV development while mitigating costs, and optimize operational efficiency across the entire organization. The company's ability to successfully navigate this complex environment will be instrumental in determining its long-term competitive position and market share.
Crucially, Ford must balance the need to address immediate challenges with a forward-looking perspective. The company's strategic direction will need to encompass both short-term cost reduction measures and long-term investments in emerging technologies and market segments.
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops
its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's
F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America.
On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into
a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by
the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are
rising and about to cross the 50 level.
I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
F: Daily and Weekly Charts Analysis.On the daily chart, the price has encountered significant resistance near the 14.83 level, which is the gap resistance seen on the weekly chart. A shooting star candlestick pattern has formed at this resistance level, indicating potential exhaustion in the upward momentum.
This is further corroborated by the price's inability to sustain its gains above this resistance, resulting in a pullback towards the 21-day EMA, which is close to the 38.2% Fibonacci's retracement. The trend is still bullish, however, if F fails to react around on of its retracements, it could reverse the sentiment.
Looking at the weekly chart, the scenario remains consistent with the daily observations. Another shooting star pattern is also visible on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the bearish sentiment observed in the daily chart.
The gap that was previously identified has now been closed, which often acts as a magnet for price action, drawing the price back towards this level before resuming its prior trend.
The presence of the 21-week EMA adds a layer of dynamic support, suggesting that while the price might face short-term resistance, the overall trend remains upward as long as this support holds.
The confluence of resistance at 14.83, the formation of the shooting star pattern, and the closed gap on the weekly chart suggest that Ford might experience a period of consolidation or a minor pullback before any potential resumption of its upward trend.
For now, we should monitor these key levels and patterns for indications of the next move, keeping an eye on the 21-day and 21-week EMAs as critical support zones.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
F is very overbought short term, but it may not matterF hasn't been this overbought since 2017. It's run up 23% in the last month and is up 13 of the last 15 trading days. A 20% drop over the next couple of months would be my most likely scenario.
Stocks can always go higher, especially with a good earnings report, which F has coming up in a week. But if they miss or disappoint in any way, I'd expect a pullback.
I would definitely NOT short this, despite my feelings about the possibility of a pullback, as shorts that make any money in F can take a long time to come to fruition and significant rises often happen first. Short term, even when this overbought, there tend to be minor pullbacks of a few percent, but nothing (in my opinion) worth the risk of going short. I sure wouldn't be a buyer here, though.
I think it will be oversold soon and offer a better entry point for longs. Just my opinion and not an overly strong one at that. F is tricky and TBH I don't have a great track record with it.
FORD over-extended?I got long around $12.50 but I think we could have a small pull back here. I sold to be safe. We have a nice topping pattern on daily. Not financial advice, DYOR.
