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(1D) MICROSOFT ANALYSIS (MSFT)Inspired by today's failed Bitcoin shareholders' vote, I've put up my prognosis for Microsoft MSFT for the next few months. MSFT is down almost 1.5% on the day, rejecting at the 78.8% retracement of the down move from the ATH. There are a couple possible scenarios going forward. Bullish case is that MSFT started a Bull Flag Correction (waves labeled in blue) with the pivot from the ATH in July. If so, we are completing Wave B of this flag (internal waves labelled in purple) , which may have completed already with this 78.6% rejection. However, we could still see it complete a 100% retracement instead and terminate as a Double Top, retesting and getting rejected at the ATH. This would signal the start of Wave C. We could expect this final wave to have a similar size to Wave A, giving us a short-term 17% Short play from the ATH before ultimately continuing the larger upside trend. Bearish case would be that Wave B described above (labelled in purple) is instead actually a Bear Flag for downside. This would have to be confirmed with a break below the $385 Support Range. **This analysis would be invalidated if we do indeed get a breakout above the current ATH, factoring in for some % overshoot (aka fake breakout).
NASDAQ:MSFT
by PHICAPITALINVESTMENTS
Elliott Wave View: Microsoft (MSFT) Shows Incomplete Impulsive SShort Term Elliott Wave in Microsoft (MSFT) suggests rally from 11.4.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 11.4.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 427 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 410.35 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as an expanded flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 416 and wave ((b)) ended at 429.32. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 410.35 which completed wave 2 in higher degree. The stock has turned higher in wave 3. Internal subdivision of wave 3 is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 415.94 and wave (ii) ended at 411. Wave (iii) higher ended at 421.08 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 414.85. Wave (v) higher ended at 429.04 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 417.80 and the stock has resumed higher again. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 435.47 and wave (ii) ended at 430.12. Wave (iii) higher ended at 446.1 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 440.50. Expect the stock to extend higher in wave (v) to complete wave ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) to correct cycle from 11.29.2024 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes higher again.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Hits a 4.5-Month HighMicrosoft (MSFT) Stock Hits a 4.5-Month High On 31 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) stock highlighted: → The price is forming a long-term upward channel, illustrated in blue. → The channel’s lower boundary serves as a significant support level. On Friday, MSFT stock climbed to $445, its highest level since mid-July, buoyed by news that OpenAI may grant Microsoft access to key AI-related technologies. Will the Price Continue to Rise? There are reasons to suspect that the bullish momentum may not sustain. Technical analysis of MSFT’s chart today suggests: → The price is near the median of the long-term channel, and this median could act as resistance. This is hinted at by the long upper shadows on Thursday and Friday’s candles. → The emerging bullish breakout above the September high around $441 might prove to be a false breakout, similar to the false bearish breakout of early October support near $408 (highlighted with arrows). Additionally, Microsoft’s stock has underperformed compared to market indices, which are at historic highs. This could mean the price may retrace to $430 or lower, aligning more closely with average autumn levels. Analysts, however, remain optimistic about MSFT’s prospects. According to TipRanks: → 26 out of 29 analysts recommend buying MSFT stock. → The average 12-month price target for MSFT is $497. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by FXOpen
1
Copilot to elevate MSFT, or will attached price tag be a drag?NASDAQ:MSFT took a hit following the release of the earnings report this week and is now trading just off the bottom of a channel it has been in since August. Price has been in a kind of consolidation mode on the lower time frames since the release. On the daily chart, we see that red days have relatively high-volume spikes, the MACD has turned negative, and RSI is nearing oversold levels. The fact that price has not continued to drop following the initial post-earnings drop, indicates it might stabilize at this level. My hunch is that it will consolidate and maybe approach the lower band of the channel, and then start climbing. There is some pressure on tech stocks at the moment, and there is an election next week, so might be a bit of rough sailing ahead. My gut tells me MSFT will bounce back, and I am long. As for target I would set my eyes on the upper band of the channel and consider a breach to the downside of the channel as a red flag. To quote ChatGPT: To provide a well-rounded summary of Microsoft's latest earnings report, I would highlight: 1. Revenue Growth : Microsoft reported notable revenue increases, driven by its cloud and AI segments. 2. Azure's Performance : Strong growth in Azure and AI services reinforces Microsoft's competitiveness in the cloud space, a vital area given current industry trends. 3. AI Investment : Increased spending on AI research and development reflects the company’s focus on leveraging AI as a growth driver. These elements can positively impact Microsoft’s outlook, appealing to investors prioritizing innovation and digital transformation.
CAPITALCOM:MSFTLong
by WeRideAtDawn
MSFT Update: Potential ABC Correction o The weekly chart suggests the completion of a 5-wave impulse to the upside. o Currently, the price is forming an ABC corrective structure: o Wave A is complete and has tested the previous demand zone. o Wave B appears to be forming a rising wedge (bearish continuation pattern). o Wave C is anticipated to move lower, targeting deeper demand zones (374-360). o The RSI on the 4H timeframe shows bearish divergence at recent highs, aligning with the corrective wave outlook. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." – Alexander Elder Stay disciplined and adhere to your risk management rules! Disclaimer This idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by MESHANL
3
MSFT LongMSFT... Currently trading at a price of $430.98 with a target of 435 and extended target at 440 MSFT is breaking out of the upper trend-line. - The move to the upside will target the red candle first that is circled before it hits 440 and all-time highs after. - That red candle opens at 437.44 and drops to a close at 432.53.. the high and low is 438.50 and 432.10 respectively... - the upper trend-line (blue line) breaks at $431.50.. MSFT will travel to 432.50 and experience slight resistance at the closing price of the previous red candle that was a fake breakout.. the bigger resistance levels come at 435, 437.44 and 438.50.. - The 9 day EMA crossed over the 50 day EMA upwards which is bullish.. - The volume on call option contracts were bought heavily ... Every Open Interest has to open higher tomorrow than what it was today to be a continuation of the price increasing and that the trend is supported. That means people are still holding their positions or there is high liquidity at those price levels for the stock. - 435 Call 12/6 3:1 Volume .. Open interest needs to be higher than 5,246 - 437.50 Call 12/6 6:1 .. Open interest needs to be higher than 1,637 - 440 Call 12/13 2:1 .. Open interest needs to be higher than 2,534
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Cash_Noir30
Microsoft - Short Term Top Formation!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) could create a short term correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Almost for the entire year of 2024, Microsoft has been moving sideways and respecting the upper channel resistance trendline. It is quite likely that we will see a correction, considering that buyers are still weak, before we then see the overall trend continuation. Levels to watch: $350 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by basictradingtv
5
Microsoft $MSFT - About to go on another run? 19% UpsideMicrosoft - NASDAQ:MSFT 🖥️ Microsoft with a big statement today for themselves and the MAG7! The runs not over! All MAG7 names are moving higher today and carrying the market. Is this the beginning of the next leg up for BIG TECH? Microsoft was forming a nasty H&S on the charts but has formed a Symmetrical Triangle pattern at then same time and is currently breaking out. They also broke out of the WR% downtrend and are launching off the AVP shelf to make a push back to ATH's. Finally the H5 indicator is pointing upward and working on flipping back to GREEN. 🎯$466 📏$512 ⏳ May2025 NFA
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RonnieV29
What Is a Stock Average Down and How To Use ItWhat Is a Stock Average Down and How To Use It Averaging down is a strategy usually used by investors to reduce the average cost of a stock by purchasing additional shares when the market declines. This approach can potentially improve returns if the stock rebounds. However, the strategy can be applied to other markets and used by traders. This article delves into the mechanics, advantages, and risks of averaging down, providing valuable insights for both traders and investors. Understanding Averaging Down Averaging down is a strategy used to reduce the average cost of an investment (cost basis). When a stock's price declines after an initial purchase, an investor buys additional shares at a lower price. This reduces the overall cost basis, potentially positioning the investor for improved returns if the market rebounds. For example, if an investor buys 100 shares of a stock at $10 each, the total investment is $1000. If the price drops to $8, buying another 100 shares costs an additional $800. The investor now holds 200 shares with a total investment of $1800. This reduces their average cost per share to $9. A stock average down strategy can be effective if the price eventually rises above the new average cost, allowing the investor to take advantage of potential recoveries. However, it is crucial to consider why the stock's price is declining. If the decline is due to fundamental issues with the company, continuing buying may lead to larger losses. Investors often employ this strategy in markets where they have high confidence in the stock's potential. It is commonly used in value investing, where investors look for stocks that are undervalued by the market. However, it can be risky if the investor misjudges the stock's potential or if market conditions worsen. Although the strategy is more common in investing, traders can implement it in CFD trading. Moreover, the averaging down can be applied not only to the stock market but to other markets, including currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. The Mechanics of Averaging Down The goal of averaging down stocks and other assets is to lower the average entry price, or in the case of stocks, the average cost per share. Here's what the process might look like for a trader or investor: - Initial Purchase: They buy a specified number of shares at the current market price. - Price Decline: If the price falls, they decide to buy more shares at the new, lower price. - Additional Purchase: They buy additional shares at the reduced cost to lower the cost basis. The average down stock formula for calculating the new average cost per share is: Average Cost per Share = Total Investment / Total Shares For example: 1. Initial Purchase: - Shares: 100 - Price per Share: $50 - Total Investment: $5000 2. Additional Purchase (after price drop): - Shares: 100 - Price per Share: $40 - Additional Investment: $4000 3. Total Investment and Shares: - Total Shares: 100 (initial) + 100 (additional) = 200 - Total Investment: $5000 (initial) + $4000 (additional) = $9000 4. New Average Cost per Share: - Average Cost per Share = 9000 / 200 = $45 By purchasing more units at a lower price, the average cost is reduced from $50 to $45. If the price rebounds above $45, the trader stands to take advantage of the recovery. If you’re unsure of how to use this formula, there are also average down stock calculators available online. *This formula can be applied to stock CFD trading and trading of other assets. Why Market Participants Use Averaging Down To average down a stock can potentially improve overall returns by lowering the cost basis of a stock when its price declines. Here are some specific scenarios where this strategy is suitable: Confidence in Long-Term Potential Investors often use this strategy when they have a strong conviction in a stock's long-term potential. If the decline in value is viewed as a temporary market fluctuation rather than a reflection of the company's fundamental value, averaging down allows buying more shares at a discounted price. Value Investing Value investors lower their cost basis to capitalise on undervalued stocks. When the market falls due to short-term sentiment rather than underlying financial health, these investors see an opportunity to acquire more shares at a lower price, expecting the stock to rebound as the market corrects its valuation errors. Market Overreactions Markets can overreact to news or events, causing sharp, short-term price declines. Traders who recognise these overreactions might take advantage of these dips, believing that the stock will recover once the market stabilises and the initial panic subsides. Dollar-Cost Averaging Some traders and investors incorporate averaging down as part of a dollar-cost averaging strategy, where they invest a fixed amount of money at regular intervals regardless of the price. This approach smooths out the buy price over time, reducing the impact of volatility and potentially lowering the average stock price during market downturns. Portfolio Diversification When managing a diversified portfolio, traders and investors might average down on specific stocks to maintain or adjust their portfolio balance. This can be part of a broader strategy to align the portfolio with longer-term investment goals while taking advantage of temporary dips. The Psychological Factors and Pitfalls of Averaging Down Averaging down is fraught with psychological challenges and cognitive biases that can impair decision-making. One common bias is confirmation bias, where traders and investors seek information that supports their belief in the stock's potential recovery, ignoring negative signs. This can lead to persisting with the strategy despite deteriorating fundamentals. Loss aversion plays a significant role, as market participants are psychologically inclined to avoid realising losses. Instead of accepting a loss and selling, they might buy lower, hoping for a rebound, which can exacerbate losses if the stock continues to decline. Overconfidence bias can also affect traders and investors, leading them to overestimate their ability to analyse market movements and undervalue the risk involved. This overconfidence can result in repeatedly increasing exposure to a losing position. Emotional factors such as fear and greed also come into play. Fear of missing out on a recovery can push traders and investors to buy more shares, while greed can drive them to double down on a position without proper analysis. The first step to mitigate these pitfalls is to be aware of them and watch for them in your own trading. Using predefined criteria, maintaining discipline, and continuously reassessing the asset's fundamentals and market conditions based on logic, rather than emotion, can also help manage these psychological factors. Differences Between Averaging Down in Investing vs Trading Averaging down in long-term investing can be a prudent strategy. Investors with a long-term horizon often view market dips as opportunities to buy quality stocks at lower prices. This approach is based on the principle that, historically, stock markets tend to appreciate over time. For instance, if an investor believes in the fundamental strength of a company, they might buy at a lower price during market volatility, expecting the stock to eventually recover and grow, thus lowering their cost basis and positioning for higher returns when the market rebounds. In contrast, averaging down in trading, whether in stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies*, or commodities, can be risky. Traders operate on shorter timeframes and aim to capitalise on short-term movements rather than long-term growth. Continuing to add to a losing position in this context can lead to several dangers: - Ignoring Stop Losses: It may cause traders to disregard their pre-set stop losses, deviating from their risk management plan and potentially leading to larger-than-anticipated losses. - Increased Risk: Adding to a losing position increases exposure and can amplify losses, especially in volatile markets or during unexpected events. The loss can be steep if slippage causes the exit price to differ significantly from the planned stop-loss level. - Slippage and Margin Calls: In leveraged trading, averaging down increases the risk of a margin call, where the trader must deposit more funds or face the forced closure of positions. This can be an extreme risk if the trader doesn’t manage their exposure correctly. While some trading strategies might incorporate averaging down, they require careful analysis and a robust risk management framework. Traders should weigh the potential advantages against the heightened risks, ensuring they do not compromise their overall trading plan and capital safety. How to Use Averaging Down Using averaging down involves strategic planning, thorough analysis, and disciplined execution. Here are some practical steps: Setting Clear Criteria Traders and investors establish specific criteria for when to average down. This might include setting a predetermined price drop percentage or a particular condition in the company's fundamentals or market environment. For instance, a value investor might decide to buy if a stock drops 20% due to sentiment. Conducting Thorough Analysis Before averaging down, it's crucial to analyse the reasons behind the decline. Traders typically ensure the drop is due to temporary factors, not fundamental issues. For example, if a stock falls but the overall trend is bullish, it might be a suitable candidate for another purchase. Technical factors play a key role in trading; head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started analysing stocks and other assets with more than 1,200+ trading tools. Determining Investment Limits Setting a limit on the amount you invest in averaging down may help manage risk. It’s best to allocate a specific portion of your capital for additional purchases rather than continually buying as the market drops. For instance, if you initially invest $5,000 in a stock, you might decide to allocate only an additional $2,000 for averaging down. Maintaining a Diversified Portfolio Traders avoid over-concentrating on a single market when using averaging down. By keeping your portfolio diversified to spread risk across multiple assets, you can potentially ensure that poor performance in one asset does not disproportionately affect your overall portfolio. Using Averaging Down with Other Strategies Combining averaging down with other strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging or a well-defined stop-loss strategy, may potentially enhance its effectiveness. For instance, using dollar-cost averaging allows you to invest a fixed amount regularly, which may help smooth out buy prices over time. The Bottom Line Averaging down can be a useful strategy when approached with careful analysis and discipline. By understanding its mechanics and potential risks, traders and investors can make more informed decisions. For those ready to explore averaging down and other CFD trading strategies, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of professional trading tools and resources. FAQs How to Calculate Average Price per Share? To calculate the average price per share, divide the total amount invested by the total number of shares bought. For example, if you initially buy 100 shares at $50 each ($5000) and later buy 100 more shares at $40 each ($4000), the total investment is $9000 for 200 shares. The average price per share is $9000 divided by 200, or $45. What Is the Average Down Strategy? The common average down strategy involves buying additional stocks when their price declines, which lowers the cost basis of the position. For instance, if you buy a stock at $50 and it drops to $40, buying more stocks at the lower price lowers the overall average cost, potentially improving returns if the market rebounds. What Is the Risk of Averaging Down? A key risk is increasing exposure to a declining asset. If the stock continues to fall, it can lead to larger losses if the market doesn’t recover. In terms of trading, it can cause traders to disregard stop-loss levels and proper risk management, increasing the potential for significant financial harm and potentially leading to a margin call. Can You Average Down Crypto*? Yes, averaging down can be applied to cryptocurrencies*. However, the high volatility and speculative nature of crypto* markets make this strategy particularly risky. Traders are required to carefully consider market conditions and conduct thorough analysis before deciding to average down on crypto* assets. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by FXOpen
1