This week is most likely your last chance to get out.This scam has so many MOONTARDS invested they are trying to give you as many chances to get out as possible. But the music will stop by next month.
MSTR trade ideas
If BTC Crashes, MSTR Has No Bottom Although I regularly have made bear forecasts on various things, I've never made a forecast of something going to zero (or as good as) before.
It's something that's outside the scope of what my strategies are designed to do. They're based on trend development ideas and actually I generally tend to get fairy bullish in tight zones on things when they are around 75% down.
When I make bear forecasts I generally make them with no regard given to what happens after they hit or to be bullish after they hit.
MSTR finds itself in the unique position of being the only stock I've ever made this forecast on (Maybe the only one I ever will) because it is apparent to me based on reading the 8-K for MSTR that if BTC were to make a technical break and follow the downtrend cycle implied by that, the situation Saylor has created makes it almost impossible MSTR doesn't go bust.
Or, more likely, they find some way to bail themselves out at the cost of the investors - like Saylor did in 2000.
Another thing you don't see me doing often is going out my way to talk bad about people. I'm just not that into it. But Saylor ... is an exception.
Saylor is the bubble man! Now, look - if you're into BTC, forget that for a second. I'm talking about Saylor. He has a history of doing something very specific - hopping onto a hype train, leveraging up to the max, encouraging others to take all in risk and seeing massive crashes in the stock if the bet wasn't right.
On March 20, 2000, MicroStrategy's stock price plummeted by a staggering 62% in a single day, falling from $226.75 to $86.75. This was one of the most dramatic single-day collapses of the dot-com era. The stock continued to fall in the subsequent days and weeks.
Saylor is a high roll gambler playing games to get his bankroll.
And the way Saylor has structured the MSTR bet makes it very hard to see any way the company could survive (without some kinda investor slaying event) a sustained downturn in Bitcoin.
I've seen videos of Saylor saying things like "If BTC went to $1 we'd just buy all the Bitcoin".
Compared to what is in their 8-K, this is outright lies. There is almost zero chance MSTR would be able to sustain its position in Bitcoin under $15,000 if it stayed there some time.
The difference between $15,000 and $1 is a lot.
MSTR's bet does not give it an exact "Liquidation price", as such. It's not like if BTC hit $14,999 the company would fail. But this idea they'd just be "Buying all the Bitcoin" is outright lies.
Because in this situation, MSTR would have no money. The way MSTR plans to raise money is selling MSTR stock at prices higher than it is now. If Bitcoin dropped and MSTR dropped, this would be far less attractive to do. The alternative is to raise funds from somewhere else (increase leverage)- but this could be hard to source in such an environment.
When the bubble boy is out of his natural environment of dreamland markets, he's not as popular.
Not buying all the BTC won't make MSTR go bust - what the problem would be as time went on is they have repayments they have to make on the debt they've accumulated. MSTR has three options how to pay this. Sell stock (Previously discussed), borrow money (take on more debt) or sell Bitcoin (At a major loss).
That's their options. They should have another one. The other option should be "Make money with the tech company" - but if you go to the weekly chart on MSTR and zoom out, you'll see they've never done that. MSTR is one of the worst performing tech stocks of all time - and in their 8-K they say they're not making money from that business.
MSTR only went up when Saylor latched onto the hype of BTC and began to deploy a leveraged bet. That for the second time in history began a sustained MSTR rally, the last one being when he did the same thing (Plus some accounting fraud) to run up the stock in the dot com bubble which then would slam and not recover until the new hype train in 2021.
I mentioned $15,000 as a bad price for MSTR. Realistically, I found it'd be unlikely MSTR can do well with BTC under 30K for a sustained period of time. Even if it crashed and then just ranged there for a few years, this would be very troublesome for MSTR. They'd have a lot of payments to make in that time with no money.
Their avenues to make money shut down. The tech company that never made money would probably be managing to under perform its terrible track record - perhaps redundant because of AI - the stock price would be in the gutter and all the people who'd be interested in lending to a guy like Saylor to do what he did would probably be quite cash strapped. Or wary.
This isn't even an isolated risk. It's not even the case you can say "If BTC goes to $10,000 and stays there for 3 years before it goes to $150,000, MSTR will struggle".
If it goes to $150,000, MSTR will just leverage up and up the price at which they'd enter into this situation of having known payments to make and no known way to generate the money to pay them other than selling BTC. Which since they would be progressively increasing their average price on that - would also always be at a big loss if sold into a downturn.
All of this assumes that Saylor can easily sell as much BTC when he wants to and that not causing an issue.
In the example of BTC trading in a range under30K for a while, our example assumes Saylor can sell BTC to cover costs and BTC remains in the range. Which might not be what happens. Given it's public knowledge when Saylor needs to make these repayments, and given it's public knowledge they have no means of making money - might not this lead to speculation?
If the market knows Saylor is going to sell, might it not front run it? Might investors and speculators not panic?
The idea of "Reflexivity" basically says that once things are in motion they will tend to feed upon themselves. Creating positive feedback loops. Good things breed good things. An example of this would be a stock rising makes it easier for the company to raise money and with more money they can make more money. Positive feedback loop.
But this same idea works the same in reverse, and the negative feedback loop for MSTR is blatantly obviously to see - so much so that I think it's inevitable if the "Risk move" in BTC EVER happens - MSTR will likely go bust. But as I keep saying, there are ways MSTR can survive - it just means the investors are screwed.
They can convert debt into stock. Maybe they'll find buyers for stock. Perhaps selling their Bitcoin can save the company at the cost of the share price.
None of them would be good for investors. And these are the only things they could do.
MSTR have taken a super aggressive bet. They've done it in a fancy way but they've basically used starting leverage and then the leverage of running profits to increasingly build a position into an uptrend. When you take the ideology out of this, all this is doing is super aggressively pyramiding into a trend with no trailing stops.
I can tell you what has to happen to your position when there's a bigger than expected pullback when that happens!
And, in this one rare case, I can tell you if that happened in BTC I see no logical way to believe MSTR does not go to zero, or as good as.
Saylor is an incredibly irresponsible man.
He has set up a situation where anything outside of the flawless bull trend over time he expects happens his company is almost certain to go bust.
And then he presents himself as the modern day investing Jesus to young and naive people with no market experience - telling them to take as much risk as they can too.
Saylor, hopefully in jest, suggests "Sell a Kidney if you must". I'd recommend he "Rent a brain if he can".
Saylor is an all in gambler. That's the truth of the man.
A confirmed breakout activates a $900 target.Whatever you might think of Michael Saylor or Bitcoin, the MicroStrategy chart is currently morphing into existence a bullish continuation pattern.
A confirmed breakout activates a $900 target.
As you can see on the chart below, not all breakouts play out the same way.
$MSTR (W)in pattern target $440-480💡 Trade Idea: Long NASDAQ:MSTR — Technical Breakout with Triple Bottom Reversal
🧠 Thesis
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has recently formed a triple bottom pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup indicating strong support in the NYSE:X range (insert actual range if known). This pattern suggests that sellers have failed to push the price lower on three separate occasions, showing exhaustion and paving the way for bulls to regain control.
Adding conviction to this move, NASDAQ:MSTR has now broken above its 200-day moving average, a widely watched technical level that often signals the shift from bearish to bullish long-term sentiment. This level has historically acted as a key resistance, and the breakout now turns it into potential support.
Together, these two signals—triple bottom support and 200-day MA breakout—provide a strong technical setup for a potential move higher.
📈 Technical Triggers
✅ Triple Bottom pattern confirmed across multi-week timeframe
✅ Close above 200-day MA, first time since
🔥 Increased volume on breakout day, confirming buyer interest
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: Current market price (post-breakout confirmation)
Stop Loss: Just below the triple bottom support area (e.g., 3-5% below recent lows)
Target 1: 15–20% move to next major resistance (e.g., psychological level or previous high)
Target 2: Potential breakout to all-time highs if Bitcoin rallies in tandem
⚠️ Risks
NASDAQ:MSTR remains highly correlated to Bitcoin; any BTC weakness could invalidate setup
High beta and volatility; sharp drawdowns are possible
False breakouts can occur if BTC fails to hold its gains or if volume dries up
🧮 Optional Strategy
For lower risk exposure or theta-positive exposure, consider a bull call spread or cash-secured puts at support levels
Aggressive traders might explore calls if expecting a near-term BTC rally to lift sentiment
MicroStrategy on the Brink? $5.9 Billion Bitcoin Losses and MassIn Q1 2025, Strategy reported a staggering $5.91 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings, primarily due to a significant drop in Bitcoin's price. Consequently, the company's stock plummeted by 6.3% following the announcement and has declined 41.9% since November 2024, underperforming both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 .
The Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) new guidelines now allow companies to reflect the real-time market value of their digital assets. While this benefited companies like Tesla, it poses a significant risk for Strategy. With billions in unrealized Bitcoin gains, the company could face a substantial tax bill under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act. This tax, set at 15%, could result in billions in liabilities starting in 2026, potentially forcing Strategy to liquidate some of its Bitcoin holdings to meet tax obligations .
Despite its significant Bitcoin holdings, Strategy's market capitalization stands at about $95 billion, double the value of its Bitcoin assets (currently around $50 billion in BTC). This discrepancy suggests that investors are paying a hefty premium for exposure to Bitcoin through Strategy, rather than purchasing the cryptocurrency directly or through other financial instruments. Analysts warn that this overvaluation could be unsustainable, especially if Bitcoin's price experiences further volatility .
Strategy's approach of continuously issuing debt and equity to fund Bitcoin purchases has been likened to a high-risk financial flywheel. Critics argue that this strategy is unsustainable and could collapse if Bitcoin's price declines or if the company faces regulatory scrutiny. Furthermore, co-founder Michael Saylor's past controversies, including a $40 million tax fraud settlement, add to the ethical concerns surrounding the company's leadership .
MSTR.....down down she goes (MSTZ inverse!)MSTR just hit the top of the Bollinger band and all the hot air is coming out (quickly). Let's see where this lands, but nice to time to load up on MSTZ IMHO.....
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
price broke bullish flag, next target is 424 dollarsI hope it hits that target of 424. we can't see higher ath if btc doesn't beat ath. Anyway, I will sell most of share at 424. 2026 will begin the new bear market, so will cash up as much as I can.
---- not financial advice ----
MSTR | Long | Ethereum | (April 2025)MSTR | Long | Ethereum & Solana Proxy Play + Channel Breakout | (April 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has become more than just a Bitcoin holding company — it's increasingly acting like a proxy for broader crypto exposure. With growing ties to Ethereum and Solana narratives, and a breakout from a parallel channel, this setup is getting very interesting.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry Zone: $300–$320 (waiting for a dip from the current price around $343)
Stop Loss: $292
TP1: $392
TP2: $427
✅ Watching the $250 area as a deeper re-entry opportunity if the market corrects — potential for extended upside if crypto momentum continues.
3️⃣ Key Notes:
🔹 Fundamentals & Correlation:
While MicroStrategy is widely known for holding Bitcoin, there's a growing trend of comparing it to "HODL-style" stocks — much like how Solana-based and Ethereum-based projects are getting equity-style proxies. MSTR is becoming a high-beta play tied to the crypto ecosystem, especially as institutional interest in Ethereum and Solana rises.
🔹 Technical Setup:
MSTR recently broke out of a parallel channel, flipping resistance into new support. Current price is slightly extended, so I'm watching the $300–$320 area for a more favorable entry. The 4H and daily charts suggest further upside is likely if this support holds.
🔹 Macro View:
If crypto market sentiment remains strong, MSTR could accelerate higher — especially as institutional attention shifts toward ETH and SOL. However, if there's a pullback in broader markets or crypto dominance metrics reverse, a revisit of the $250 zone is not off the table.
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Monitoring closely for dip entry and confirmation. Will update if structure changes or key levels are invalidated. Risk management remains key — don’t chase, wait for the zone.
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Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
MicroStrategy Ignites Major Breakout Could Send Prices Soaring📈 MicroStrategy (MSTR) 4H Technical Analysis
MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) is exhibiting a strong breakout structure on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling potential continuation to the upside.
Breakout Confirmation
Price action has decisively broken above the descending trendline that had acted as resistance since March.
A successful retest of the breakout level around $340-$350 strengthens the bullish case.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate support zones: $341.26 and $338.24
Deeper support: $317.48 and $301.46
Upside resistance targets : $435.76 initially, with an extended target toward $455.10 if momentum persists.
Risk-Reward Outlook
The setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, exceeding 2:1.
Well-defined risk parameters below recent support provide a clear invalidation point.
Volume and Momentum
Breakout is supported by increasing volume, confirming strong buying interest.
Momentum indicators on higher timeframes continue to tilt bullish, suggesting further room for upward movement.
Macro Context
With MicroStrategy’s heavy exposure to Bitcoin, any strength in the cryptocurrency market could act as a catalyst for continued gains.
NASDAQ:MSTR maintains above the $338–$341 support region, the technical bias remains bullish with targets set toward $435–$455. A sustained move below $317 would invalidate this outlook and shift bias back to neutral or bearish.
Price target is still $420 ishPrice target is still $420 ish, there must be an upside until 1st of May, when MSTR will show earnings & revenue. I expect to be lower than estimated and price will start dropping for a while. So I am confident until 1st of May that price will go up. This is my opinion, I am not an expert and this is not financial advice.
MSTR - Next Wave UpJust made a new high.
That is likely a clue of what happens next with Bitcoin.
It was a running 3 wave 1:0.618 Golden Window correction.
That is a weak ratio and ideal for a continuing uptrend.
But most importantly it was a re-test for support:
That dip buy was there to be gobbled up.
If you didn't see it then this probably goes up and up from here 👍.
Not advice
The bubble has been burstedThe wave theory looks especially clean for this stock. Clearly it had a big bubble which is now completed, and it's in a bear market correction at the moment which should lead to lower prices. I am expecting to see a crash all the way to $150 before the year is over! The funny thing is that this isn't even a cheap price either, since it would just be reflecting the NAV value. Falling in half just makes the price fair, since it's already 2x overvalued. 528 thousand bitcoins is worth only 48 billion dollars, while Microstrategy's market cap is is 93 billion dollars. Saylor is going to continue issuing stock to buy more Bitcoins, which will push the price much lower.
MSTR TRADE IDEALooking to play a pullback into last weeks .5/.618 fib retracement in confluence with the swing high Anchored VWAP for ideal entry.
MSTR - $320 for channel breakout.MSTR - Stock having a failed breakout of trendline resistance today. Still around the breakout zone. $320 level break looking good for breakout towards $350 and $400. If we seeing another fail of $320 we should see a retest of $300.
$MSTR sub $200 before $1000+?NASDAQ:MSTR looks pretty bearish here. We're trading under a key support and it looks like it wants lower. I think if the next candle turns red, then we're likely to see a large selloff all the way down to the lower supports.
If we can make it back up above this support level at $363, and close above it, it would be a trigger long. Then I think we're likely to see a large run all the way up to the upper resistances to 1000+.
Let's see how the price action unfolds here.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) - Breakout watch if BTC co-operatesMSTR is looking healthy above its major moving averages after forming what appears to be a developing triple bottom.
If you have a bullish thesis on the price of bitcoin at its current level, MSTR is very compelling. Any longs could have a clearly defined risk in the region of the moving averages which also aligns with an untested POC and anchored VWAP from the lows.
$MSTR LongNASDAQ:MSTR multi-month base, higher lows, 50-sma reclaim, relative tightness up the right side on reduced volume, RS 98, 40% institutional ownership
MSTR Double TopDouble top and multiple rejections in this 310-313 zone. Looking for a retest of 287 for the next key pivot point, and from that inflection watch PA to see if we test the critical level of 273 (lots of trading volume and buyer/seller conflict), or we can bounce off that zone forming a double bottom heading back to the 343 retest.. interested to see what transpires!
MSTR In-complete Cup @ Handle Pattern Forming Early timing and can be invalidated.
My Crystal Ball got smashed of late.
My advice is to stay away and preserve Capital = Cash.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Lining Up for a Major Move?McroStrategy is looking real right on the higher time frame 👀
Price is currently hovering around $317, sitting beautifully between key zones:
Previous High: $543 — this area has yet to be retested. I’m patiently watching for price to gravitate back toward that zone. The momentum is building.
Buy Zone (Liquidity Pocket): $231 – $220
This zone was tapped with precision and instantly rejected — classic smart money footprint. If price revisits this range again, I'm looking for a strong reaction or a W formation before continuation.
Macro Support: $102 — Long-term breakout zone, marked as a final floor in case of macro correction.
💡 Structure is King
This is what I mean when I say let the candles breathe. The market is compressing after a strong impulse — exactly what you want to see before continuation.
If you're into swing trading like I am, this kind of setup is gold — especially with a bullish macro bias still intact.
MSTR Fake pump....watch outBTC is spiked a little bit and the S&P is down. There's a mini pull back going on and we should expect BTC to drop a bit soon, which will take down MSTR and pump MSTZ. All the signs and trends are there.
Best of luck and always do your own due diligence!
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Ichimoku Cloud Reclaim SetupMSTR needs a daily close above $318 to officially reclaim the Ichimoku Cloud on the 1D chart. This would flip the bias back bullish and invalidate the recent mid-cloud rejection seen near the $315–317 zone.
Why $318?
That’s the top of the current Kumo (Senkou Span B = $317.96)
A close above confirms a full cloud reclaim, shifting trend momentum
MACD is turning bullish, and RSI is recovering above 50 — signs of building strength
🔍 What I'm Watching:
✅ Daily close > $318
✅ Confirmed MACD crossover (on Ultimate MACD)
✅ RSI holds above 50
🎯 Trade Plan (if confirmed):
Long bias above $318
Initial target zone: $340–$355
Risk: Daily close back below Tenkan ($311)
