MSTR trade ideas
MSTR | SHortI am bearish on MSTR as I see multiple tops for this underlying. I expect it can breakout from there and will test its 250s levels or more down.
MSTRSimilar thesis to $COIN
Looking to trade up to 350s, perhaps 420, depending on what BTC does. Will likely cut on acceptance below 280 otherwise if continued acceptance above 280 will look to swing it up to 350s.
MSTR potential to run-up to $520 in a short amount of timepotential movement showing in the charts, and the movement is showing that it should be done come the mid/end of April.
This push up to 290-303, can potentially keep going with it catching support.
Important areas are marked.
Potential paths marked, but don't pay much attention to those, as they change really quickly. It's more important to follow the indicators, trends, and specific numbers.
That red/pink trend heading upwards is fairly strong, if it hits, I'd sell.
The Middle green trend is weak.
The bottom green trend is fairly strong.
I think this stock pushes back to 900 or more by early next year
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$BTCUSDT - proxy play - $MSTRMicrostrategy with so much Bitcoin in their balance sheet their stock price acts like a proxy Bitcoin play.
It seems to give leveraged price action based on Bitcoin moves.
On Friday, it moved 12% while Bitcoin moved about 8% (during stock trading hours)
Microstrategy 31823About to full send. I turned some of my LMT into MSTR at 200 instead of Bitcoin. But it is only a small fraction. Be your own central bank
Gold, silver, Bitcoin, land, chickens, hard assets
The Melt Up Moonshot The melt up moonshot...
The market is incredible miss positioned for this bull run, this is actually worse then 2020 as Fund managers had an entire year of stacking short positions for the coming recession.
Things like ATH Credit Card Debt and FED rate hike BS was feed to the masses and they ate it up, meanwhile all of my businesses(and everyone I know who owns a business) have been making record month after record month revenues.
Yes CC debt is at an ATH and Yes people have pulled a record amount of equity out of their homes and guess where it landed? Not in Amazon junk, that was 2021. In 2022 in landed in our pockets, main street is booming!
Take a look at MMF's, where main street business owners hold their cash before they need it. Its at a record high.
Let me ask you something, you think its gonna stay in a MMF for .5% interest? Or will it go into the stock market and get a 2% a week return in the s&p 500? My guess, the stock market.....
My position:
MSTR
29 $900 Calls for 12/15
5 $350 Calls for 7/16 - These will be rolled at $600 to increase leverage for the big move higher.
Future of MSTRI've had a position in MSTR for a few months now and even though it's one of the worst companies in terms of stability and providing rising returns to investors, I think that it has strong potential for a large upswing.
With the price of Bitcoin recovering and 28.36% of it's shares being shorted, I think that a short squeeze is imminent. I would even see it becoming the next AMC or GME if people start mentioning the corporate stupidity of Michael Saylor. I think that it's the riskiest asset in my portfolio and I don't intend holding it for long, I'm currently targeting the 600$-700$ range which is very possible if Bitcoin claims back it's previous highs.
Finally, I don't think MSTR has much of a future, their entire existence is based on Bitcoin which at the moment isn't the most stable. To be totally honest, there are barely any fundamentals behind my position, just hopium.
MSTR LONGGGGThis is about to fly over the next coming days. Long it long it. Got myself a $237.5c 1/27. Aggressive itm sweeper detected for this week, target is $280.
$MSTR 1-27-2023Initial charting of $MSTR breaking out of demand zone. Added what are the next supply and gap fill levels if this trend continues.
microstrategy made a breakoutMicrostrategy did a breakout off this triangle and now he is doing a retest on the trendline.
On de daily timeframe we dont want to see the candle close below the trendline.
If we hold the trendline than this a good buy moment
MSTR hitting support but then further downside to fill the gap.Okay guys look at this beautiful chat.
Here you are looking at MSTR on the Daily TF and you have a lot of stuff going on.
Notice the wedge pattern that is forming from the down slopping (yellow) line and the parallel (green) support line. That is forcing action to the corner of the wedge.
You will also notice that before the continued downward movement in the stock there was an attempted breakout (purple box). Now, this is where most investors would have jumped on board and though that this was a true break out, however there wasn't any confirmation.
Without confirmation there isn't a true breakout.
Also notice how the big gap up represented by the green line is now serving as a major support and goes back to 2020. This line has been tagged times now and is beginning to weaken.
Once the green line is weakened enough it will break and head down to the gap fill (represented by the blue line) and you will see a bounce off of that level.
We will continue to monitor the progress of this chart and see if there is enough bullish price action to get through the yellow resistance line or if the bears will win and fill that gap.
Let me know what you think will happen.
Cheers,
Good range expansion. Good range expansion.
Will see if this has followthrough upcoming days to get a feel for whether or not breakouts have followthrough.
Can MicroStrategy go Bankrupt?MicroStrategy's average cost per Bitcoin is around $30,639. MicroStrategy holds 130,000 Bitcoin. Can MicroStrategy go Bankrupt? I guess it all depends on the price of Bitcoin. In any event, here's a MSTR & BTC comparison 1-day chart with my tickerTracker MFI Oscillator set to fib21.
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
MSTR about to implodeMSTR looks to be on the brink, showing another perspective on Bitcoin that also looks ready to plummet. Expecting a WIPE-OUT in the end, back down to $130 range. This could be a GREAT buy down the road, but not for a quite a while.
MSTR will be bankrupt should BTC fall down to $5.5k. Target $3.MSTR shareholder equity other than BTC is about $400mm.
They own $3.7B worth of BTC as of today which would be worth $580mm at $5.5k per BTC.
Total equity at $5.5k per BTC: $1B.
Total debt they raised to buy BTC: $2.2B.
Once BTC crashes down to $5.5k their equity will be -$1.2B, should they sell "intelligence" part of the business for $1B equity still would be negative.
On a side note we have a perfect abc correction upward with a bearish divergence which implies crash down to about $3 per MSTR stock.
Head and shoulders on Microstrategy (MSTR)The chart shows a high probability of a significant drop of value - complete failure? - of Microstrategy.
Fortunately, a similar head and shoulders is not visible on the underlying asset held by MSTR, #bitcoin. That said, MSTR does hold a leveraged position in #bitcoin, so the possibility of default is real. It's just not as real as indicated by this chart. I suspect this is a rare case ( ~ 20% chance) that the H&S pattern fails; hence, I am neutral on this asset.
Not a good look. Prob. a good time to buy the fear.
MicroStrategy Graph and Fundamental Analysis (MSTR)1. Graphic Analysis
Since March 2020, the company has been showing a strong correlation with Bitcoin (as shown at the bottom).
The price is "respecting" the white diagonal line in a big triangle 3 times.
It remains to be seen whether this line will be restored or whether it will now take off for good.
Perhaps the fundamentalist analysis below indicates a subtle change in operating results, to the point of enacting the bottom of this cycle.
2. Fundamental Analysis
The result was announced on November 1st.
2.1. Income Statement
2.1.1. Revenues
Sales increased by 2.69%, going from $122M to $125M.
2.1.2. Expenses
Operating expenses have been flat since inception, ranging quarterly from $111 million to $122 million.
2.1.3. Net Income
Net Income shows how much money a company earns after expenses.
Since the year 2020, net income has had a negative performance.
Despite sales increasing by 2.69%, this has not changed.
The positive point is that in relation to the previous quarter, the negative profit deteriorated, going from -$ 1.06 Billion to -$ 27.08 M
2.1.4. Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Earnings per Share is the amount of earnings per share of issued, ordinary shares.
Analyzing since the 1st quarter of 2021, this indicator has remained negative, signaling that those who bought the company's shares suffered a loss, in line with Net Income .
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2.2. Balance Sheet
2.2.1. Asset x Liability
2.2.2. Total Assets
The total value of assets decreased by 2.13%, due to a reduction in current and non-current assets.
2.2.3. Total Debt
Debts remain stable, in the range of $2.24 billion to $2.45 billion.
2.2.4. Net Debt
Net Debt represents the amount of debt that would remain after a company had paid off as much debt as possible with its liquid assets.
This value also remains stable.
2.2.5. Net worth
It is what's left after subtracting total liabilities from total assets.
Equity was positive until the first quarter of 2022.
But in the last two quarters it was negative by -$200 million.
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2.3. Cash flow
2.3.1. Cash From Operating Activities
Cash From Operating Activities represents the amount of cash that a company gets from its ongoing, regular business activities, such as the production and sale of goods or the provision of services to its customers.
Considering the period since 2021, Q2 2022 (the previous one) was the one in which there was a negative flow of -$18.37M.
In the current quarter, positively, this negative flow has stopped, standing at $1.10 M.
But still far from the last positive value of the first quarter of 2022 which was $ 46 M.
2.3.2. Cash From Investing Activities
Cash From Investing Activities represents the amount of cash that a company brings in from its investing activities.
It includes any cash inflows or outflows from the company's long-term investments.
A negative value of Cash From Investing Activities can show poor performance, but it can also be a sign of increased investment activities.
Spending on investments has been declining.
From a peak of -$1B in Q1 2021, in the current quarter of 2022(3) the amount spent was -$6M.
This signals a trend towards the end of investment activities.
It may be due to the higher cost of money, and/or the lack of need for such an investment.
2.3.3. Cash From Financing Activities
Cash From Financing Activities is the amount of cash that a company receives or pays to finance its activities.
That is, the company invests this money in itself, specifically in the development of its business.
A positive value may indicate an organization's intentions regarding expansion and growth.
A negative value may be a sign of improvement in the company's liquidity if debts are paid off.
A negative value can also provide information on the dividend policy of the organization.
In the same way as investment activities, the value follows a downward trend, that is, the company continues to prioritize the consolidation of its activities, or prioritizing the settlement of its debts.
2.3.4. Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow (FCF) represents the cash that a company generates as a result of its activities, excluding expenses on assets.
Free Cash Flow is sometimes considered the hardest financial metric to fake because of its calculation and for that reason, it's a popular financial metric in the investor community.
The current value remains positive at $769k, but far from the peak of $64M in Q1 2021.
Last quarter the balance was negative at -$19M, so we could at least consider this reversal as something positive.
2.3.5. Price to cash flow Ratio
It measures how much cash a company generates relative to its share price.
Formula:
Market Value/Cash Flow from main activities
The indicator remains positive and peaked at 69.46 in this current quarter.
MSTR: You're Not Surprised Are You?$MSTR Price action tells the story with no room for bias or subjectivity. And yes, the levels on the chart have been there for weeks; no real mystery. The #FTX debacle was merely the catalyst.
The fact that prices went from the upper RED level at ~287 and cut right through the lower RED level at 186 tells you a lot. There is likely a lot more damage to come.
