MU trade ideas
Difference between candles and barsHey traders and investors!
What is the difference between using candles or bars on a chart?
This example clearly shows the key difference. Take note of the closing price of the candle on September 26 (point 8 of the range). On a candlestick chart, this is impossible to understand. On a bar chart, the closing price is clearly visible. The closing price is below the range boundary of 111.34, the trading volume is enormous, and the buyer was unable to break above the range.
Now, the price has reached the range boundary of 111.34 for the second time on increased volume, and the seller has absorbed the buyer, forming a buyer's zone at the upper boundary of the range. There is a high probability of further price decline within the short vector 8-9 of the range (potential target 85.92). However, there are threats along the seller's path.
You might consider buying at the 98.7 level (if buyer will protect it) or around 84-86.
Good luck with your trading and investments!
Opening (IRA): MU Nov 15th 95 Covered Call... for a 92.53 debit.
Comments: Post-earnings, IV remains somewhat decent here at 45.2%. Selling the -80 delta call against long stock to emulate the metrics of a 20 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 92.53/share
Max Profit: 2.47
ROC at Max: 2.67%
50% Max: 1.24
ROC at 50% Max: 1.33%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test.
MU - Time to build long positionMU is pulling back on low volume to fill the earning gap.
Started a small long position, this has scope to go further down to fill the gap completely.
If so, Around 95-96 is the good entry
Long around - 95-96
Stop Loss - 90
Target 1 - 120
Target 2 - 130
Target 3 - 135-140
Micron Technology – New Growth Cycle Key Supporting Arguments
▪ Rising sales of AI-enabled smartphones and PCs
▪ Favorable pricing environment for memory chips in the upcoming quarters
▪ A quarterly report that will be released on September 25 is expected to be strong and provide a more positive outlook for this quarter and the year
▪ Micron Technology has resumed its buyback program
Investment Thesis
Rising sales of AI-enabled smartphones and PCs. The robust sales of AI smartphones, including Apple and Samsung devices, along with a new PC refresh cycle in the coming quarters, should bolster sales of the company’s memory chips. In the second quarter of 2024, sales of AI-enabled PCs increased by more than 100%, contributing 85% to the quarterly sales growth. According to IDC’s initial estimates, PC and smartphone sales growth will further accelerate in the third quarter, and the penetration of memory chip-intensive AI devices will continue to expand. Micron Technology’s management projects that AI-enabled PCs will have on average 40-80% more DRAM, and DRAM in AI smartphones will increase by 50- 100%, which will bolster the growth in demand for DRAM chips. Minimum SSD capacity for AI-enabled PCs has already doubled, while the expansion of SSD capacity in smartphones is driven by an increasing share of premium fullconfigured devices in total sales. Major U.S. telecommunications companies have independently reported extremely strong demand for iPhone 16, with consumers favoring more expensive models.
Favorable pricing environment for memory chips in the upcoming quarters. Recent data from TrendForce and comments from Micron management suggest that pricing environment remains favorable. DRAM chip prices are expected to rise by approximately 11% through the third quarter of 2024. Since August, Samsung and SK Hynix have raised the prices of DDR5 chips by 15-20%, and Micron will undoubtedly follow suit. This price increase, combined with a growing share of HBM sales, will significantly boost Micron’s ASP of DRAM chips in the fourth quarter. Although price trends in the NAND segment have been slightly weaker than expected because customers over-accumulated inventories in the first half of 2024 in anticipation of higher prices. Nevertheless, the overall positive trend in the NAND segment remains intact.
The quarterly report to be released on September 25 is supposed to be strong, with a more optimistic outlook for the quarter and the year. In early August, Micron Technology resumed its share buyback program, indicating management’s confidence in the company’s business performance. Ahead of the report, several investment firms have revised downward their financial forecasts for the company, which reduces the risk of unmet expectations. Contracts with industry leaders, anticipated price increases, and the rising shipments of HBM memory and SSDs for the B2B segment set a positive tone for Micron Technology, whose stock has been heavily oversold in recent months.
Our price target for Micron Technology (MU) over a two-month horizon is $109, with a “Buy” rating. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $78.
MU Micron Technology Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MU before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MU Micron Technology prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $6.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MU Update: Ready to Test New Highs?Continuing from my last two ideas on NASDAQ:MU , the double-bottom formation still has potential. There's an unclosed gap around $123 that should be closed, and I see similarities between the earnings surge back in March and the current one in September. If this plays out, my price target is $137.13, with a possible test of the all-time high at $157.
My Trade Plan: I'll be looking for a retest of the 150-day MA for support before entering, aiming for ~20% profit. However, it's crucial to monitor the volume closely.
What are your thoughts? Are you bullish or bearish on MU, and where do you see it heading next?
MU: Gap, Pause, Run?Someone recently showed me this 'simple strategy' and I've had some success with it. The idea is, a stock gaps up big, like MU did on this chart back in March and again on September 26th. After the gap up you watch for a pause. The pause can be a day, few days, or even a week, doesn't matter. If the stock falls back down and closes the gap (or get's close), the trade idea is over. But if it trades sideways for a bit and then breaks above the high of the initial gap up candle, in this case 114.80 on 9/26, you enter.
Entry: above 114.80
Volume: strong volume
Target: no target, close the trade when price closes below the 5 or 10 Moving Average.
Stop: depends on your risk tolerance; My plan is the low of the gap up candle, in this case 107.53.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.