I am calling NU's bottom from hereGreat company fundamentals and great management. I fully believe price will return to the 14-16 range in S1.
Their expansion is LATAM is notable.
NUD trade ideas
NU might be worth a look~$10 stock looks like it might be heading back up. MACD showing value area with a cross showing momentum could be coming back in.
NU | Nu Holdings Ltd.Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Please do your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in stocks can be risky and may result in loss of capital.
NU - Strong long term fundamentals but uncertain near termIncredible growth from NU over the past few quarters but tough outlook ahead as Brazil's economy (NU's main market) is not the strongest right now.
Still worth looking at this company as a longer term investment!
Happy Trading :)
Will Joey help NU push on, or will they need even more Friends?NYSE:NU has had a good run rising 50% last 12 months, however since releasing positive earnings a month ago the share is down 25%. Among reasons for this is that the AR per customer has dropped from all-time-high of $11.40 to $11 in the last two quarters. Also, they are struggling to attract high(er)-income customers, having their fair share of customers in the low-income bracket. In their key market Brazil, a whooping 56% of the adult population has a credit card from Nubank ( NYSE:NU ’s brand), accomplished in just 10 years. However expansion into other markets is proving difficult, and the company is facing headwinds in Mexico. The somewhat known investor Warren Buffet is an investor, and he recently sold 20% of his share in the company. This could just be rebalancing after a good run but is worth mentioning.
Technically the stock is not looking its best at the moment. After a steady growth pretty much since January 2023, we have now seen a steeper correction than usual (on the daily chart). Price has dropped from an ATH of $16.15 to currently $11.99. This meant price dropped below the support of the rising baseline and is now in consolidation. This consolidation can be viewed as a bearish rectangle, indicating a potential break to the downside of the rectangle. Should this happen, there is some support around $10.50 with next support at $8.50. Should price however break to the upside, the mentioned baseline will serve as resistance. The stock is approaching oversold levels on the RSI, and we have seen bounces in such situations before, however the drop before has been steeper this time.
Fundamentally I believe the company might have hit if not a wall, then some serious obstacles in expanding their business, both at home in Brazil and internationally. Key numbers are rising, and this might be a sign to the upside potential, if they can be maintained and reached. Technically it looks bad in my view. I believe price will break to the downside of the rectangle and have my eyes on $8.50. On the 4H chart we saw a brief break to the upside of the rectangle, but price very quickly retreated down.
12/2/24 - $nu - Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when (LONG)12/2/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NU
Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when
- is one of the three stonks in latam that i've commented in the past is worth keeping a v close eye on b/c of the growth rates and tremendous product. the others are NASDAQ:MELI and NASDAQ:DLO (the latter of which worked out nicely and we made a good exit earlier this year from the lows, but it took a minute).
- back to Nubank:
1/ brazil in earlier innings of economic funeral, but what's new this happens every so often and those battle tested growers tend to come out of these events eating massive share, Nu will be one of these
2/ timing is always the tricky thing. you want to take calculated risk, but unlike the US stonks, you have clear geo/ FX and therefore adverse flows risk to consider. invest in emerging mkts and you need to have a tolerance/ knowledge of currency risk, minimally. i'm not going to downplay that here, but only to flag this needs to be something you consider if/when considering a stake in $nu. the counter point is they're growing bananas outside of Brazil as well and likely take over pretty much over every other latam country similar to Meli. IMO, there's no competition for the growth engine they can export into latam.
3/ let's math and use two approaches... PE and ROE -> book value
a1. PE: let's imagine the 62c next year (in USD) is 50c - only a 15% growth. the reason you'd look at this is b/c most investors r going to be focused here, so you stand the chance of risk-evaluating what others see and making a call (similar to support and resistance vs. some esoteric TA you've developed). in this vein, what would you pay for a 15% EPS grower (ignoring all other factors of what this biz is and only considering it's a bank in Latam)? maybe 10-12x? def sub 1x PEG. b/c it's brazil, brazil is currently fukt. so you put a "depressed multiple" on a depressed EPS. at call it 50c and 10x - you're at $5 bucks. sick downside from the $12 it closed at today. so that's probably *worst* case, from today's POV. let's call that -60%. diddy slip and slide party pain.
a.2: PE: but this isn't some "new kid on the block". a lot of Nu investors are smart int'l types that are going to look beyond trough '25, even today, including papi warren B. so if we assume we pick up from 15% toward 20% the following year and go 50c -> 60c, you'd probably start to consider at that point at least a PEG of 1x given growth would extend to the following yrs as well. at 20x on 60c you're at $12 for year-end '26. and let's give it a 15% discount (Ke brazil finger in air - but likely in the ballpark) and you get to $10 and change for the 12M view e.g. YE25, which is the bogey we're all looking at today given we're already done w/ '24. so that's 20% downside.
combining a.1 and a.2 above... i'd likely weight a.2 as being perhaps a 70% and a.1 as 30% given the logic described, investor base and this isn't some going concern issue. also i'm being mega conservative w/ my EPS estimates as well. if you haven't noticed, they keep ripping the cover off the ball on EPS. so combined that's -60%*30% + -20%*70% = 33% downside more or less or a $8 stonk.
b: ROE thinking. 25% ROEs (probably expanding) and growing book at probably ~$1/shr for the next 2 yrs combined gets you to a book of $5. when you consider this likely continues to grow nearly 15-20% a year... and we could be conservative and say it's 10% a year (cut it more than in half)... at a 15% Ke you get:
Price = BookVal * (ROE - g)/(Ke - g) then discount 2 yrs by 15%.
this is Price = $5 * (25 - 10)/(15 - 10)/1.15/1.15 = $11+ today.
tying this all together... fair value is probably between 10 and 11 today. so buying $12 is defn being a bit opportunistic and playing a reversion move on BRL related assets. i'd not be surprised to see this thing move back toward $13/14 into year end, and equally i'd not be surprised to see it test the big green dilly from Aug 5 this year that ripped thru $10.
So, it's not an obvious trade for those who don't know this asset or haven't been following that closely. perhaps easier to wait for better entry even if that means some chop here/ there and you get a bit of fomo if first move is up.
The way i'm personally playing it are $10 and $11 strike 2027 leaps. allows me to amp my exposure without necking out too hard on a notional cash-in basis. offers about 3-1 leverage, so a 1.5-2% options position gets me a gross effective of about 5-6%. that's comfy for now. i'd like to get this position closer to 10-15% if/when we hit the $10s area or below (and it will be one to manage b/c *WHY* we go there will matter a lot - not just a rote plan, these things always evolve and perhaps there are other better deals out there too esp in the US or my favs NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:META ).
anyway. wanted to flag. should be on your radar. this is a quality LT compounder that's gotten cheap b/c of geography, but is a neo-bank virus to the existing dino's in latam.
LMK what u think or esp if u see it differently.
have a good week my friends
V
NU Holdings OutlookNU price has left the high volatility range and dropped by over 11% today.
The chart suggests that the first Elliott Wave A-B-C correction structure might be near completion with this five-wave downward move. Prices are reaching quite attractive levels again, prompting me to consider re-establishing a position, as the first clear correction pattern appears to be finishied soon.
There's a possibility that the entire correction could be complete. However, my main scenario anticipates that the chart will develop into a more complex correction pattern over the next few months, not finishing with this simple A-B-C structure.
There's still a chance that if the correction lasts longer, these prices could represent the lowest we'll see.
My primary target remains the 50% Fibonacci level at $9.25.
NU - Value Play of the DayObviously a lot can change within the next 20 minutes as Powell prepares his monologue... But just a value play here with NU Holdings - they've shown extremely strong growth over the past few quarters and I believe they continue that growth into next year when the market heats up again. Looking to average into a position here within the $9.50-$10.50 range.
Happy Trading :)
Great risk reward here on NUNYSE:NU is a solid growth company, just click each earnings tab so see the insane growth. It took a breather to the support line. Risk 1 to make 5 here. I like to use synthetic longs on plays like this. Sell puts and buy calls. Sell the put under the trendline. When you feel confident the trendline held you can add to the possession.
NU should pullback in correctionNU ended impulse sequence at $16.15 high started from June-2022 low. Below 16.15 high, it should unfold the correction in 3, 7 or 11 swings and remain choppy to lower.
Nu Holdings (NU): Long Opportunity Backed by Strong TechnicalsNu Holdings (NU): Long Opportunity Backed by Strong Technicals and Robust Fundamentals
Trading Idea: Nu Holdings (NU)
Current Price: $12.00
Trade Type: Long
Entry Price: $12.00
Stop Loss: $10.80 (strict adherence to minimize risk)
Target 1 (TGT-1): $13.00
Target 2 (TGT-2): $15.50
Fundamental Analysis
Nu Holdings has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, attributed to its expanding customer base and increasing adoption of digital financial services.
The company achieved profitability in 2022 and has continued scaling operations efficiently.
Strengths in Financials:
High revenue growth rate, indicating strong demand for its services.
Transition to profitability is a significant milestone.
Challenges:
Operating in competitive markets with traditional banks and fintech startups.
Regulatory challenges across its key regions.
Business Model: Digital Banking
Nu Holdings operates as a digital banking platform primarily targeting underbanked and underserved populations in Latin America. Here's an overview:
Core Offerings:
No-Fee Banking:
Offers fee-free digital accounts, eliminating traditional banking costs.
Credit Products:
Provides credit cards with transparent fee structures.
Utilizes proprietary algorithms to extend credit to previously unbanked customers.
Technology-Driven:
A mobile-first approach enables easy onboarding and engagement.
Uses AI for fraud detection and customer service automation.
Cross-Selling:
Expands revenue streams through insurance, investments, and payment solutions.
Advantages:
Scalability: Digital-first operations enable cost-effective customer acquisition and service delivery.
High Customer Engagement: Gamified app features and personalized financial tools foster loyalty.
Regional Focus: Focus on Brazil and other LATAM markets leverages a unique customer demographic.
Risks:
Over-reliance on Brazil as a key revenue driver exposes the business to localized economic fluctuations.
Regulatory changes could impact profitability.
Conclusion:
This trade idea leverages both technical and fundamental insights. Nu Holdings' technical setup suggests short-term bullish momentum, while its innovative digital banking model supports long-term growth potential. A cautious approach with a strict stop-loss is recommended to mitigate downside risks.
Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves significant risk, and you may lose your invested capital.
#NU Holdings UpdateNU price fell into the first anticipated FIB-level (26.6%).
In my eyes the chart finished a big Wave-(3), this impulse was going for over 600days.
Therefor I believe the chart could be in a corrective pattern a bit longer, before gaining new momentum.
Price might find shortterm support in this green Box.
LONG NU @ 12.53 - patience is a virtueThis one has been a little temperamental lately, and can take some time for the trade to work out when it is, but ultimately still has a perfect record (79-0) of coming through after a buy signal since it went public near the beginning of 2022. It has also been in an almost 2 year long uptrend and trading strong stocks improves my odds dramatically.
However, I'm always a bit more skeptical when I trade stocks with short trading histories, and 2 years is short for me, but in the end I just trust my numbers. And this one has pretty good ones.
Its average daily returns have been top quartile for me, returning an average of about .20% per day held. That's close to 4.5x the long term average daily return of the S&P and almost double the daily return of the of the market this year, which has been a VERY good one for the market.
Average hold has been about 3 weeks but that's skewed longer by a couple of long trades. The median trade length is 1 day, so having a 50/50 shot at this being a 1 day trade and the vast majority taking less than a week makes it worth the risk of tying up capital for longer.
Per my usual strategy, once I'm in I'll add at the close on any day it is still given a buy signal by my algorithm, and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
$NU - Look out belowww! Falling KnifeChart #35/ 40: NYSE:NU
-Double Top Breakdown look for retest and confirmation
-L5 Indicator is RED
-Williams R% needs to create Resistance for this Low 5 Setup to establish the Williams consolidation box.
-AVP almost at volume shelf, if it breaks that another big gap down.
🎯$11.75📏$10.62⏳ Before APR25
NFA
Trade Review: A Quick & Easy Short Trade Review:
- earnings gap low
- touch of keltner
- MACD momentum strength
- stop above strong bar
- entry on 11/27
- close 11/29
#NU Elliott-Wave AnalysisNU Holdings most likely topped out on September 3, 2024.
The price is expected to retrace over the coming months, potentially establishing a bottom within the blue box ($10.63–$7.87).
Afterward, the anticipated move to the upside could once again be quite impulsive.
Nu Holdings (NU) AnalysisCompany Overview: Nu Holdings NYSE:NU , a leading digital bank in Latin America, is rapidly expanding its footprint across the region, leveraging innovative fintech solutions to drive growth in underbanked markets. With a mission to offer simple and accessible financial services, Nu Holdings continues to strengthen its presence, especially in key markets like Mexico and Colombia.
Key Developments:
Expansion in Latin America: Nu has successfully launched checking accounts in Mexico and Colombia, showcasing strong customer demand. The company has attracted $3.3 billion in deposits in Mexico and $220 million in Colombia, underscoring its ability to effectively penetrate new markets. This expansion opens up significant growth potential for Nu, as the digital banking revolution in Latin America continues to gather momentum.
Strong Customer Engagement: Nu's active user base continues to grow, with an impressive record-high activity rate of 83%, marking the 11th consecutive increase in user engagement. This high level of customer activity demonstrates Nu's ability to retain and engage its users, a crucial factor for long-term profitability in the fintech sector.
Accelerating Revenue & Profitability: In addition to customer growth, Nu has shown consistent acceleration in revenue and profitability, solidifying its position as a top contender in the fintech space. The company's unique combination of digital banking services, credit offerings, and low-cost structure sets it apart from traditional banks and other fintech competitors.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NU above the $13.50-$14.00 range, driven by its successful market expansion, strong customer engagement, and accelerating financial performance. Upside Potential: Our price target for Nu Holdings is set at $23.00-$24.00, reflecting its potential for continued regional growth and increasing profitability as it scales operations across Latin America.
🚀 NU—Transforming Banking Across Latin America! #FintechGrowth #LatAmBanking #DigitalRevolution
Bullish BAT Supported by Volumewe have a bullish formation of BAT pattern on NYSE:NU which is supported by relative volume.
✅ Target 1 : $14.25
✅ Target 2 : $15.07
⛔ Stop Loss: $13.5
Have a good weekend! 🫡✌️
long long on nu after valuation its undervalued and some good catalysts that could stimulate growth in the stock price
$NU - Potential double topNYSE:NU There is potential for a double top. Watch the critical support area around $13. 👀
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I'm not suggesting that anyone follow my trades. You do you.
Will Nu Continue Rally After Unusual Volume Activity Last Week?Above 9.67 low, it favors upside in fifth wave and expect to finish the impulse started from all time low before the major correction starts. Last week, it traded with unusually high volume above 10X, which provides few scenarios. (1). It favors upside in v and can unfold 5 internal waves, while dips remain above 9.67 low but still main momentum divergence. (2). It may see minor upside as v and the volume can be exhaustion move before it reverses in larger correction, which confirms below 9.67 low or by breaking the trendline. (3). It will start nesting higher and erase the momentum divergence, which extend higher. That move should ideally supported by gap up move.
Nu Holdings reports strong Q2 earnings, shares surgeNu Holdings Ltd., a leading digital banking player globally, saw its stock prices rise following an impressive second-quarter earnings report . The company's profits more than doubled compared to the previous year, an achievement that has significantly offset concerns about increasing loan delinquency rates and a reduction in bad loan provisions.
Operating predominantly in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, Nu Holdings boasts a customer base exceeding 100 million, covering 55% of Brazil's adult population. Known as Nubank, the company operates without physical branches, leveraging a cloud-based platform optimized for mobile devices. For the quarter, Nu recorded revenues of USD 2.8 billion, surpassing the average analyst estimate of USD 2.66 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Technical analysis of Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: NU)
Examining potential trading opportunities based on the current technical landscape of Nu Holdings' stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : the stock is currently in an uptrend, with the quotes recently reaffirming support above the support line
Resistance : the resistance at 12.30 USD has been broken
Support : support has solidified at 9.65 USD
Potential downtrend target : should the trend reverse to a downtrend, the downside target could be set at 7.50 USD
Short-term target : if the uptrend persists and continues beyond the current resistance, a short-term target could be 14.35 USD
Medium-term target : with continued momentum, the stock price might aim for 15.50 USD
Investors and traders should monitor Nu Holdings closely, especially in light of its strong quarterly performance and its strategic position in the growing digital banking sector. The company's innovative approach and expansive market coverage in key Latin American countries position it well for sustained growth, which is reflected in the positive trajectory of its stock price.
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