Is NVDA Approaching $97?Nvidia's stock dropped 9.5% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day market value loss for a U.S. company, as investor enthusiasm for AI cooled amidst a broad market selloff. Nvidia's market capitalization fell by $279 billion, reflecting growing caution around AI's potential, which had driven much of the year's stock market gains.
This downturn follows Nvidia's recent quarterly forecast, which didn't meet the high expectations of investors. Concerns about AI's slow payoff have also impacted other tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet.
Despite the market turbulence, Nvidia is still up 118% for the year, though it is now trading at 34 times expected earnings, down from over 40 in June. The chip index is up 14% in 2024, slightly below the S&P 500's 16% gain. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and key labor market data.
Technical Overview
Recent Price Action: NVDA has experienced a significant sell-off, dropping 9.5% recently, which aligns with the bearish sentiment indicated in your chart. The stock has broken below key support levels, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Volume Profile: The volume profile suggests that there has been a high concentration of trading activity around the $120-$125 range. This area could act as a resistance zone if the stock attempts to bounce back. However, the price has now moved below this area, indicating weakness.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: Around $97-$98, where the price may attempt to find a short-term floor.
Critical Support: If the stock fails to hold the $97 level, the next significant support is around $90.80.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance: At $116.77, which aligns with the recent breakdown level.
Stronger Resistance: Around $121.76 and $123.92, where previous trading activity was concentrated.
Stochastic Oscillator: The oscillator is showing oversold conditions, which could indicate a potential short-term bounce. However, oversold conditions can persist in a strong downtrend, so this may not be a reliable buy signal just yet.
Investor Confidence
Investor confidence in NVDA has clearly been shaken, as evidenced by the record one-day drop in market capitalization. The failure to meet lofty expectations in the recent quarterly forecast, combined with broader market concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven gains, has led to increased caution among investors.
Intraday and Short-Term Outlook
Bearish Bias: Given the sharp decline and the breakdown of key support levels, NVDA may continue to face selling pressure. A bounce back towards the $116-$121 range is possible, but it could struggle to break above this resistance due to weak investor sentiment.
Potential for a Bounce: If the stock stabilizes around the $97-$98 level, there could be a short-term opportunity for a bounce. However, this is more likely to be a dead cat bounce unless accompanied by a significant change in market sentiment or positive news.
Long-Term Outlook
Long-Term Caution: For long-term investors, the recent developments suggest caution. While NVDA remains a leader in AI and semiconductors, the current market conditions and investor skepticism may lead to further downside before a more stable bottom is found.
Buying Opportunities: Long-term investors might consider accumulating shares if the stock drops towards the $90-$97 range, but only if they are prepared for potential further declines. The key would be to watch for stabilization and a clear sign of investor confidence returning.
Conclusion
Near-Term Direction: The immediate direction for NVDA appears to be downward, with potential support around $97-$98 and a possible test of the $90-$91 range if selling pressure continues.
Investor Confidence: Confidence has been significantly eroded, and without a catalyst, NVDA may struggle to regain its previous highs in the near term.
Trading Strategy: For intraday traders, watch for potential bounces off the $97 level, but be ready to exit quickly if the stock shows signs of further weakness. For long-term investors, consider waiting for clearer signs of a bottom before adding to positions.